海啸灾难的代价无可估量(下)

The cost of tsunami is impossible to comprehend

Eight days after furious waves swept tens of thousands to their deaths, bodies still lie unburied and Asia and the world struggles to grasp the scale of the tragedy


he clock on the town hall tower in Banda Aceh is frozen at 8.25am, the moment a giant tsunami hit the sprawling provincial capital at the northern tip of the Indonesian island of Sumatra on December 26.

About 25 minutes earlier, the Burmese and Indian tectonic plates off the north-west coast of Sumatra had shifted, causing an earthquake of 9.0 magnitude on the Richter scale, the world's biggest in 40 years. The quake generated huge surges of water that sped across the Indian Ocean at speeds of up to 645km (400 miles) per hour.


It was the start of one of the world's worst natural disasters that would cause the most widespread devastation in Asia since the second world war, affecting 11 countries. Eyewitnesses would all report seeing the same phenomenon: the water beginning to bubble and retreat from the shore before turning dark and rushing landward with violent force in churning tsunami as high as 15 metres (50 feet).

Less than two hours after Indonesia was hit the tsunami reached Thailand and Malaysia 400km (250 miles) to the north. At the Thai beach resorts of Khao Lak, Phi Phi islands and Phuket, holidaymakers on their Christmas break saw walls of water rising out of the sea to slam the beach-front hotels with furious force. Many people were swept out to sea, others drowned in their hotel rooms on what had promised to be a perfect day of clear blue skies and sunshine.


Within the next half hour a series of tsunami struck a 1,000km (600 mile) strip along eastern India, mainly in the state of Tamil Nadu. Amutha, a young woman, saw her two sons, aged one and three, crushed by a collapsing wall under the force of the water. “The walls fell on me, too. I could do nothing to save my children,” she said as she lay in a hospital bed.

At the same time, the giant waves swept across the east and south coasts of Sri Lanka, engulfing a train carrying at least 800 passengers, while some islands in the low-lying Maldives and India's Andaman and Nicobar archipelago vanished beneath the waves. Relentlessly, the tsunami pushed on until they reached the east coast of Africa, 6,400km (4,000 miles) from the epicentre, seven hours after the earthquake had struck.

In their wake, the tsunami have left a tragedy of biblical proportions. More than 130,000 people are feared dead, thousands are missing, many more injured and millions homeless. Most of the victims were poor, many of them fishing people who lived in ramshackle villages in remote coastal locations. “The victims were the least educated, the least resourceful and lowest in our society,” said Mani Shankar Aiyar, an Indian government minister.

The exact death toll will never be known, not least because so many of the missing were devoured by the sea and their bodies may not be washed up for months. In some of the most remote areas where whole villages were wiped out there is scant information about names and numbers of residents. Identifying the remains of those found has become exceedingly difficult, in part because so many bodies were bloated and are now decomposing. Pressure on medical, police and forensic teams is immense although western forensic experts have now arrived in some stricken areas to help collect DNAsamples and assist the identification process.

Indonesia has reported the highest number of fatalities and the government's health minister said on Sunday that the final toll is likely to exceed 100,000, with casualty numbers climbing since rescue teams reached the isolated west coast of Sumatra, one of the worst affected areas. Sri Lanka, however, is thought to have suffered the greatest toll on a per capita basis, with about 30,000 confirmed dead and 7.5 per cent of the population left homeless. The death toll in India stands at about 15,000. Thailand's official count is 4,800, although more than 6,000 are still missing and officials fear most of them are dead. Outside Asia, Sweden and other northern European countries are thought to have suffered the most deaths, as Thailand was a prime destination for tourists escaping a northern winter. The death toll would have been far worse if the tsunami had struck at night when most people were asleep and unaware of what was happening. Although the overall figure remains lower than the 250,000 official death toll after China's 1976 Tangshan earthquake (independent estimates put the figure at a staggering 650,000), there is growing concern that tsunami-related deaths could climb sharply. Between 3m-5m people in the region now lack basic necessities such as food, clean water and shelter, and the World Health Organisation has warned that disease epidemics could double the tsunami death toll unless help reaches survivors quickly. Typhoid, cholera and dysentery could spread because water systems have been contaminated by sewage. Overcrowded camps are fertile grounds for respiratory diseases and mosquito-borne malaria and dengue fever. In addition, at least 300,000 injured people are in urgent need of medical care, WHO said.

Another challenge for relief teams lies in the extensive geographical scope of the disaster in what is one of the world's most densely populated regions. Aid agencies are accustomed to dealing with localised natural disasters, rather than one that spread across several time zones.

Kofi Annan, the United Nations secretary general, said the UN would make its biggest disaster appeal soon, exceeding its previous record of $1.6bn for Iraq in 2003. Margareta Wahlstrom, UN deputy emergency relief co-ordinator, has been appointed to oversee tsunami-related aid programmes. Nearly $2bn has already been pledged by 40 countries, led by Japan with $500m, and the World Bank. European governments are planning to hold an international donors conference next weekend.

Most of the aid will flow to Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India, the poorest and worst affected countries. Comparatively affluent Thailand and Malaysia are in less dire need of outside financial aid and support. But the international effort has also been marked by diplomatic bickering, with persistent criticism that the US was not doing enough. Jan Egeland, UN undersecretary for humanitarian affairs, suggested wealthy countries were being “stingy” toward the developing world. Although Mr Egeland's comments were not directed specifically toward the US or its response to the tsunami crisis, US president George W. Bush called the remarks “ill-informed and misguided”.

In an apparent response, however, the US has increased its initial pledge of $35m aid to $350m and Colin Powell, US secretary of state, said yesterday that the US might increase that amount later on.

Domestic critics of the Bush administration have lamented the slowness of the initial US reaction, with Mr Bush waiting three days to make a televised address on the disaster. But the delivery of supplies to the region by US military transport aircraft and ships over the weekend has muted criticism and prompted Mr Egeland to say the US was doing a “phenomenal job”.

The dispute about donations, however, appears irrelevant with relief efforts bogged down on the ground. The huge scale of the disaster has posed enormous logistical problems in helping survivors, especially in more isolated areas where much of the infrastructure has been destroyed.

Peter Rees, head of operations support for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said he expected a “very confused situation” for the first couple of weeks, with many governments and other organisations sending supplies, often unsolicited, to stricken nations and clogging airports and warehouses. “Unsolicited goods get in the way,” he said. Sumatra's biggest airport at Medan is already overstretched and naval vessels are trying to ferry supplies directly to Banda Aceh and the west coast.

Local governments are being criticised for their slow response. The disaster represents the biggest test for Susilo Bambang Yuhhoyono since he became Indonesian president in October on promises of improving government efficiency. That image is being threatened by officials struggling to deliver relief supplies, with the local administration paralysed and medical services in disarray. At the weekend, however, the relief effort in Aceh was finally getting under way in earnest. But the clean-up in Indonesia remains slow. Officials in Banda Aceh estimate that at least 30,000 bodies still need to be buried in the city alone. Supply shortages throughout the country have eased, however, with “enough food in the country to feed 500,000 people for two months”, according to Mohamed Saleheen, WFP director for Indonesia.

With roads washed out, hundreds of people have been walking to Banda Aceh in search of supplies and shelter. “If there was medicine and food [where we were] it would be better for us to stay,” said Siti Hawa, who was taking her daughter to Banda Aceh for medical treatment.

Throughout Asia, there are allegations that governments failed to warn local populations of the impending tsunami in spite of receiving two to three hours' advance notice before they struck. Seismologists at Thailand's meteorological office admitted they knew within minutes that a powerful earthquake had struck but hesitated to issue a tsunami warning because they were afraid they might be wrong and could trigger mass panic, damaging the tourist industry.

“If we issue a warning about the possibility and then the tsunami does not occur, the meteorological office will have many telephone calls complaining about our prediction,” said Sumalee Prachaub, a Thai seismologist.

Early reports to New Delhi that military bases on the Andaman and Nicobar islands had been struck by a tsunami were lost in the maze of the Indian bureaucracy, according to local reports. Indian Ocean countries lack a sea-based tsunami warning system. But even if early warnings had been given by television and loudspeaker, many people might have been unable to flee because of the poor coastal road network in some areas.

Amid the regional devastation and shock, however, one positive aspect is that the immense cost of reconstruction will be manageable if enough international aid pledges are met. Munich Re, the world's largest insurer, estimates total damages will amount to $14bn. This pales in comparison with the $132bn in losses resulting from Japan's Kobe earthquake in 1995, which killed about 5,000 people.

Economists believe the tsunami will have only a minimal effect on the economic growth of Thailand and Indonesia this year as no big industrial or port facilities were damaged. One Indian civil servant described the economic impact on India as “profound but localised” in coastal areas, with the Mumbai stock market performing well last week. Only the tiny Maldives, heavily dependent on tourism, might suffer a big setback in growth.

Tourism is seen as the regional industry worst affected by the disaster, which damaged prime resorts in Thailand, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Analysts expect a travel slowdown for at least the first quarter of 2005 although the industry has proved resilient in face of previous crises, such as the outbreak of the Sars respiratory disease in 2003.

Airlines have reported numerous cancellations to some regional holiday destinations but resorts such as Phuket may fully recover by as early as the middle of the year because the Thai government is likely to make its reconstruction a top priority. Some local hotels are already back in business. Insurers believe pay-outs will be limited. “Insurance penetration in a lot of the countries affected is very small and in places like India foreign insurers have not been allowed in anyway,” said Andrew Martin, insurance analyst at Alliance Capital in Sydney.

How the reconstruction effort is handled could provide both political risks and opportunities, particularly in Aceh and Sri Lanka, which have been riven by separatist conflicts for more than 20 years. Rescue efforts there could promote reconciliation between the Free Aceh Movement and Jakarta, and between Tamil rebels and the Sinhalese-dominated government in Sri Lanka. There were early signs of hope after the tsunami, with a ceasefire called in Aceh and Indonesia lifting a ban on international aid agencies entering the province. Chandrika Kumaratunga, the Sri Lankan president, promised to work with the Tamil Tigers to bring aid to rebel-controlled areas, among the worst affected on the island, which could strengthen a shaky ceasefire declared in 2002.

There is a danger that the bungling of relief efforts and widespread corruption, particularly in Aceh, could fuel alienation among local populations toward central governments.

However, improved co-ordination and joint action between south-east Asian countries could strengthen awareness of such issues. Already regional officials say they are likely to discuss closer co-operation in tackling other natural disasters, such as the smog that sometimes blankets the region from forest fires. If the tsunami do promote a new sense of shared responsibilities throughout Asia, it may be the only positive note in one of the cruellest misfortunes that the region has ever had to face.

By John Burton in Singapore, Shawn Donnan in Banda Aceh, Amy Kazmin in Thailand, Ray Marcelo in Sri Lanka, Khozem Merchant in New Delhi, Christopher Swann in Washington and Frances Williams in Geneva
海啸灾难的代价无可估量(下)

然而，关于捐助的争论似乎与救援工作陷入停顿不相干。灾害规模巨大，造成帮助幸存者方面出现大量后勤问题，尤其在较偏远的地区，因为那里的大部分基础设施都被破坏了。


动用海军

国际红十字会与红新月会的行动支持部门主管彼得?里斯(Peter Rees)说，他预计在最初几周内将出现“非常混乱的局面”，很多政府和其它组织向受害国家送来救援物品(通常是自发送来的)，塞满机场和仓库。“自发提供的物品会碍事，”他说。苏门答腊岛最大的棉兰(Medan)机场已难以应付，海军船只正试图将救援物品直接送往班达亚齐和西海岸。

救援努力终于展开

人们批评当地政府反应迟钝。对于10月份成为印尼总统的苏西洛?班邦?尤多约诺(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)来说，此次灾难构成了他执政以来的最大考验，因为他当选总统时许诺要提高政府效率。由于官员们穷于应付运送救援物品，地方行政部门瘫痪，医疗服务一片混乱，因此政府提高效率的形象正受到威胁。不过在上周末，亚齐的救援努力终于认真展开。

但印尼的清理工作仍然缓慢。班达亚齐的官员预计，单是该市就有至少3万具尸体需要埋葬。不过整个国家的供应短缺状况已经缓解，“国内储备食物足以让50万人吃上两个月”，联合国世界粮食计划署印尼事务主管穆罕穆德?赛辛(Mohamed Saleheen)说。

由于道路被冲垮，数以百计的灾民徒步前往班达亚齐寻求供给和栖身之所。“要是我们那里有药物和食品，我们就更合适留在那里，”西蒂?哈瓦(Siti Hawa)说。她正带着女儿前往班达亚齐接受治疗。

当地政府提前得知？

亚洲各地都有传言称，尽管当地政府提前两三小时就收到了即将发生海啸的通知，但它们都未向当地民众发出警告。泰国气象局的地震学家承认，他们在强震发生后几分钟内就已获悉，但迟疑之下没有发布海啸警告，因为他们担心自己可能弄错及引发大规模恐慌，对旅游业造成直接经济损失。

“如果我们发布可能有海啸的警报，然后又没有发生海啸，气象局将会接到大量电话，抱怨我们的预测，”泰国地震学家苏马雷?普拉乔布(Sumalee Prachaub)说。

当地报道称，曾有给印度政府的早期报告，称安达曼和尼科巴群岛上的军事基地受到海啸袭击，但这些报告在印度官僚体制的迷宫中走丢了。印度洋沿岸国家缺少海基海啸预警系统。但即使电视台和高音喇叭发布了预警，许多人可能还是无法逃离，因为某些沿海地区的道路网质量低劣。

重建成本可以控制

尽管遭受了地区性毁坏和冲击，但积极的一面是，假如足够的国际援助承诺得到兑现，那么庞大的重建成本是可以控制的。全球最大的保险商慕尼黑再保险公司(Munich Re)估计，此次海啸的损失总计将达140亿美元。这与1995年日本神户地震导致的1320亿美元损失相比要小很多。那场地震导致约5000人死亡。

经济影响有限

经济学家相信，由于大型工业和港口设施都未遭到破坏，这次海啸对泰国和印尼今年经济增长的影响将会很小。一位印度公务员将这次灾难对印度造成的经济影响描述为“深远但仅限于沿海地区”，上周孟买股市运行良好。惟有小国马尔代夫，由于其严重依赖旅游业，因此其经济可能出现巨大倒退。

外界认为，旅游业是该地区受冲击最严重的产业。这场灾难破坏了泰国、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫的黄金旅游胜地。分析师们预计，至少2005年第一季度的旅游业务将下滑，尽管该行业历经数次危机都能反弹，包括2003年爆发的非典型性肺炎(Sars)。

各航空公司已报告说，许多人取消了到该地区一些度假胜地的航班，但最快到今年年中时，普吉岛等旅游胜地就有望完全复苏，因为泰国政府可能会将该岛的重建列为头等大事。一些当地酒店已经恢复营业。各保险公司相信，赔付金额将是有限的。“许多受灾国家的保险覆盖率非常低，而在印度等国，外国保险公司还没有获准进入，”大联资产(Alliance Capital)驻悉尼的保险分析师安德鲁?马丁(Andrew Martin)表示。

和平机遇

重建行动的开展，既有可能伴随政治风险，也会带来机遇，尤其是在亚齐和斯里兰卡。这两个地方陷入分裂分子引发的交战已有20多年。这些地方的救援行动，有望促使“自由亚齐运动”与印尼政府，以及泰米尔反叛武装和由僧伽罗人主导的斯里兰卡政府达成和解。海啸过后有一些令人产生希望的初步迹象，亚齐省已达成停火，印尼政府则解除了不准国际救援机构进入该省的禁令。斯里兰卡总统钱德里卡?库马拉通加夫人(Chandrika Kumaratunga)承诺与泰米尔猛虎组织合作，向叛军控制的地区提供救援。此举有助于加强2002年宣布的摇摇欲坠的停火协议。叛军控制的这些地区是斯里兰卡受灾最严重的地区。

如果救援努力处置不当，而且腐败盛行，尤其是在亚齐，就有可能使当地人对中央政府更为反感。

不过，鉴于东南亚各国改善了协调与联合行动，人们对这类问题的认识可能有所加强。地区官员已经表示，他们可能会讨论进行更紧密的合作，应对其它自然灾害，如森林火灾引起的、有时会笼罩在该地区上空的烟雾。这次海啸是该地区有史以来不得不面对的最残酷厄运之一。如果海啸真能促进整个亚洲培养出一种新的共同责任感，那或许是这场灾难中唯一的积极因素。

海啸灾难的代价无可估量



阅读



约翰?伯顿(John Burton) 新加坡、肖恩?多纳(Shawn Donnan)班达亚齐、埃米?卡兹明(Amy Kazmin)泰国、雷?马赛罗(Ray Marcelo)斯里兰卡、霍泽姆?麦钱特(Khozem Merchant)新德里、克里斯托弗?斯旺(Christopher Swann)华盛顿和弗朗西斯?威廉姆斯(Frances Williams)日内瓦报道

海啸警报系统亟待建立

How a warning system would save lives

No other natural disaster, apart from the impact of an asteroid or comet from space, can cause such far-reaching devastation as the tsunami resulting from a large subsea earthquake.


The earthquake off the Sumatran coast released more energy than 10m one-megaton bombs, as the ocean floor shot upwards by as much as 10 metres and displaced hundreds of cubic kilometres of water. The resulting waves travelled across the open Indian Ocean at the speed of a jumbo jet, carrying enough energy to cause death and destruction 7,000km away on the East African coast.

Although the earthquake itself could not have been predicted a tsunami alarm system certainly could have saved lives further afield. The authorities in Sri Lanka, India and the Maldives would have had two or three hours to organise at least a partial evacuation of coastal areas.

Sadly, the Indian Ocean has no tsunami warning system like the one that has operated in the Pacific since 1968. But this quake was so big that, even without the infrastructure of a formal system, some seismologists were able to give unofficial warnings of the tsunami, though they had no way to get the word out to the coasts of South Asia. Some scientists have been pressing for an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system since the early 1990s but there was little sense of urgency in the region. In contrast to the Pacific, where the vast majority of the world's tsunami occur, the Indian Ocean has not suffered a serious tsunami since the 19th century.

In the aftermath of last week's events, Indian Ocean countries seem certain to agree this year to set up a regional warning network. The basic technology has been tried and tested in the Pacific, where alerts have saved hundreds of lives. The system starts with a network of seismographs to detect the initial earthquake. The seismic data is used to make an immediate prediction of whether the location and severity of the quake makes a tsunami likely. If so, an alert is issued. Then the progress of the tsunami is monitored through sensors that detect changes in sea level, along coastlines and (via seabed pressure sensors and buoys) in the open ocean.

The basic network is not expensive because the Indian Ocean has far fewer zones of seismic activity than the Pacific, less equipment is needed. A functional system could be installed for $5m-$10m, according to United Nations experts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But individual countries would then have to invest further in the infrastructure required to interpret warnings for local conditions and relay them immediately to relevant areas. Reliable evacuation plans are needed too. The system will do its job only if local inhabitants trust it so it is essential to avoid false alarms such as the one issued last Thursday in South India, which caused widespread panic and disrupted the disaster relief effort.

Although an Indian Ocean tsunami monitoring system would not have been needed during the 20th century, seismologists say this was an unusually quiet period. Ominously, the geological record shows that severe earthquakes off west Sumatra, such as the one on December 26, tend to occur in couples separated by just a few decades. The last pair of giant quakes occurred there in 1797 and 1833. If the pattern repeats itself, the Indian Ocean will face another tsunami catastrophe before the middle of the century.

The disaster may also lead to the establishment of an Atlantic tsunami monitoring network. Although the Atlantic is a less active seismic zone than the Indian Ocean, the death of several thousand people in a tsunami following the great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 shows it is not immune. But geologists warn that huge landslides under the ocean or on islands such as La Palma in the Canaries may pose a greater risk.

“We may have severely underestimated the level of the tsunami hazard along the margins of the Atlantic Ocean,” says the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London. “Our understanding of the tsunami record has been skewed by the shortness of the historical record.”
海啸警报系统亟待建立

除了天外飞来一颗行星或彗星，再也没有哪一种自然灾害能像海底地震引发的海啸那样，造成如此巨大的破坏。


在这场苏门答腊岛海岸外爆发的地震中，由于海底地壳弹起10多米，数百立方千米的海水被推涌，地震所释放的能量超过了1000万枚一兆吨的炸弹。由此产生的海浪以飞艇般的速度穿过开阔的印度洋，千钧之势给7000公里之外的东非海岸带来死亡和毁灭。

尽管这次地震难以预测，但如果有海啸警报系统的话，它一定会挽救更远处的生命。斯里兰卡、印度和马尔代夫政府至少可以有2至3小时的时间，组织海滨地区的人员部分撤离。

可悲的是，印度洋不像太平洋那样，从1968年起就有一个海啸警报系统。但这次地震是如此严重，即使没有一个正式系统的基建设施，一些地震学家还是能对这次海啸发出非官方的警报，可惜他们没法把消息传到南亚沿海地区。从90年代初开始，一些科学家就敦促建立印度洋的海啸警报系统，但这一地区几乎没有什么危机感。世界上绝大多数的海啸发生在太平洋，相比之下，印度洋自19世纪开始就不曾爆发过严重的海啸。

经历了上周的事件之后，印度洋地区的国家似乎肯定会同意在今年建立一个地区性的警报网络。基本的技术已经在太平洋地区经过试用和测试，在该地区，警报系统已经挽救了数百条生命。这一系统先由一个地震仪网络探测最初的地震，研究人员会直接用这些地震数据来预测地震的位置，以及严重程度是否可能导致海啸。如果是的话，他们就会发布警报。然后他们会通过传感器来探测沿岸海平面的变化，并通过海底压力传感器和浮标在开阔海域中探测海平面变化，从而监测海啸的走势。

由于印度洋的地震活跃地带比太平洋少得多，它不需要那么多的设备，所以建设一个基本的网络不会很贵。联合国的专家以及美国国家海洋和大气管理署(NOAA)都认为，安装一套具有基本功能的系统只要花费500万至1000万美元。

但这样一来，每个国家必须对基础设施做进一步的投资，从而根据当地环境解释警报，并迅速将消息传达到相关地区。同时需要的还有切实可行的撤离方案。该系统只有在当地居民信任它的前提下才能发挥作用，因此，避免类似上周四在南印地区发布的虚假警报至关重要，该警报引起了大规模的惊慌，并妨碍了救援工作的开展。

尽管印度洋地区在20世纪并不需要建立海啸警报系统，但地震学家认为，这是一段罕见的平静期。令人感到不祥的是，地理资料显示，像12月26日这样在苏门答腊岛西海岸发生的严重地震，往往会间隔几十年连续发生。该地区上一次大地震发生在1797年和1833年。如果历史重演，那么印度洋将在本世纪中叶前面临另一次海啸之灾。

这场灾难还可能导致大西洋海啸警报网络的建立。尽管大西洋与印度洋相比，地震更不活跃，但1755年里斯本大地震后，海啸夺走数千条生命的事实证明，这也不是一个能够完全幸免的地带。但地理学家警告说，剧烈的海底或海岛山崩，如在加那利群岛(the Canaries)中的拉帕尔马岛上爆发的那次，可能会造成更大的危险。

“我们可能严重低估了大西洋沿岸爆发海啸的可能性，” 英国伦敦大学学院(University College London)本菲尔德＃哈泽德研究中心(Benfield Hazard Research Centre) 表示，“由于历史资料的短缺，我们对海啸资料的理解可能有所偏差。”

Groups face payouts ‘up to $10bn'

The total loss to the global insurance industry from Asia's tsunami disaster could be between $5bn and $10bn, according to the industry's latest estimates.


The International Underwriting Association, which represents companies that write insurance and reinsurance in the London market, but outside of Lloyd's, said discussions with its members suggested a figure for total losses to the insurance industry in this range.

Marie-Louise Rossi, chief executive of the IUA, said: “In recent years a number of countries in south-east Asia have developed financial service industries and many claims will be met by local companies. Some liabilities will, however, have been reinsured through the London market.”

The IUA accounts for roughly half the premiums written in the London market, with Lloyd's accounting for the other half. The IUA said it could not put a figure on the proportion of the total industry losses that would be incurred by its members.

Lloyd's said yesterday it was still evaluating its exposure. Some analysts have estimated figures for the insurance industry's total losses from the tsunami disaster at the lower end of the IUA's range.

Neil Manser, analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton, the broker specialising in banks and insurance, said he expected the total insurance industry loss to be towards $5bn ($2.6bn, �3.7bn). As well as a low level of insurance penetration, the concentration of values around the coast, the areas most affected, were relatively low. Unlike windstorm losses, he said, which could affect a large inland area, tsunamis tended to affect a relatively small inland area.

However, he said insurers could face claims for business interruption, as well as personal accident and travel insurance claims, although the latter were likely to be widely spread. Nicholas Johnson, insurance analyst at Numis, suggested insured losses would be between $2bn and $5bn, adding he thought the final figure would probably be towards the lower end of the range.
国际保险协会：海啸损失“50亿至100亿美元”

据保险业最新估计，亚洲海啸灾难对全球保险业造成的损失总额可能在50亿至100亿美元之间。


国际保险协会(International Underwriting Association)称，与该协会成员企业的讨论显示，保险业的损失总额将在上述区间之内。国际保险协会代表在伦敦市场开展保险和再保险业务的公司，这些公司都不是劳合社(Lloyd’s)成员。

国际保险协会首席执行官玛丽-路易丝?罗西(Marie-Louise Rossi)表示：“最近几年，东南亚的许多国家已发展了金融服务业，许多索赔将得到当地保险公司的赔付。但一些理赔责任已通过伦敦市场进行了再保险。”

国际保险协会占据伦敦市场大约半数的保费收入，劳合社占了另一半。国际保险协会表示，对于成员企业的海啸理赔损失在全行业损失中所占的比例，它无法给出数字。

劳合社昨天说，它仍在评估其风险暴露程度。一些分析师已预测说，保险业在这次海啸灾难中的损失总额，将位于国际保险协会预测区间的低端。

银行和保险业专业经纪商Fox-Pitt Kelton的分析师尼尔?曼瑟(Neil Manser)表示，他预计保险业的损失总额将接近50亿美元。受灾最严重的沿海地区保险覆盖率低，其赔偿金额也相对较低。他说，与影响大面积内陆地区的暴风不同，海啸只影响相对较小的内陆区域。

但曼瑟先生表示，保险公司可能会面临商业中断的索赔，以及个人意外事故和旅行保险的索赔，尽管后者的风险很可能是由许多保险公司分担的。Numis保险分析师尼古拉?约翰逊(Nicholas Johnson)认为，保险损失可能在20亿至50亿美元之间，他还补充说，他认为最终数字可能会接近该区间的低端。

海啸灾难的代价无可估量

The cost of tsunami is impossible to comprehend

Eight days after furious waves swept tens of thousands to their deaths, bodies still lie unburied and Asia and the world struggles to grasp the scale of the tragedy


he clock on the town hall tower in Banda Aceh is frozen at 8.25am, the moment a giant tsunami hit the sprawling provincial capital at the northern tip of the Indonesian island of Sumatra on December 26.

About 25 minutes earlier, the Burmese and Indian tectonic plates off the north-west coast of Sumatra had shifted, causing an earthquake of 9.0 magnitude on the Richter scale, the world's biggest in 40 years. The quake generated huge surges of water that sped across the Indian Ocean at speeds of up to 645km (400 miles) per hour.


It was the start of one of the world's worst natural disasters that would cause the most widespread devastation in Asia since the second world war, affecting 11 countries. Eyewitnesses would all report seeing the same phenomenon: the water beginning to bubble and retreat from the shore before turning dark and rushing landward with violent force in churning tsunami as high as 15 metres (50 feet).

Less than two hours after Indonesia was hit the tsunami reached Thailand and Malaysia 400km (250 miles) to the north. At the Thai beach resorts of Khao Lak, Phi Phi islands and Phuket, holidaymakers on their Christmas break saw walls of water rising out of the sea to slam the beach-front hotels with furious force. Many people were swept out to sea, others drowned in their hotel rooms on what had promised to be a perfect day of clear blue skies and sunshine.


Within the next half hour a series of tsunami struck a 1,000km (600 mile) strip along eastern India, mainly in the state of Tamil Nadu. Amutha, a young woman, saw her two sons, aged one and three, crushed by a collapsing wall under the force of the water. “The walls fell on me, too. I could do nothing to save my children,” she said as she lay in a hospital bed.

At the same time, the giant waves swept across the east and south coasts of Sri Lanka, engulfing a train carrying at least 800 passengers, while some islands in the low-lying Maldives and India's Andaman and Nicobar archipelago vanished beneath the waves. Relentlessly, the tsunami pushed on until they reached the east coast of Africa, 6,400km (4,000 miles) from the epicentre, seven hours after the earthquake had struck.

In their wake, the tsunami have left a tragedy of biblical proportions. More than 130,000 people are feared dead, thousands are missing, many more injured and millions homeless. Most of the victims were poor, many of them fishing people who lived in ramshackle villages in remote coastal locations. “The victims were the least educated, the least resourceful and lowest in our society,” said Mani Shankar Aiyar, an Indian government minister.

The exact death toll will never be known, not least because so many of the missing were devoured by the sea and their bodies may not be washed up for months. In some of the most remote areas where whole villages were wiped out there is scant information about names and numbers of residents. Identifying the remains of those found has become exceedingly difficult, in part because so many bodies were bloated and are now decomposing. Pressure on medical, police and forensic teams is immense although western forensic experts have now arrived in some stricken areas to help collect DNAsamples and assist the identification process.

Indonesia has reported the highest number of fatalities and the government's health minister said on Sunday that the final toll is likely to exceed 100,000, with casualty numbers climbing since rescue teams reached the isolated west coast of Sumatra, one of the worst affected areas. Sri Lanka, however, is thought to have suffered the greatest toll on a per capita basis, with about 30,000 confirmed dead and 7.5 per cent of the population left homeless. The death toll in India stands at about 15,000. Thailand's official count is 4,800, although more than 6,000 are still missing and officials fear most of them are dead. Outside Asia, Sweden and other northern European countries are thought to have suffered the most deaths, as Thailand was a prime destination for tourists escaping a northern winter. The death toll would have been far worse if the tsunami had struck at night when most people were asleep and unaware of what was happening. Although the overall figure remains lower than the 250,000 official death toll after China's 1976 Tangshan earthquake (independent estimates put the figure at a staggering 650,000), there is growing concern that tsunami-related deaths could climb sharply. Between 3m-5m people in the region now lack basic necessities such as food, clean water and shelter, and the World Health Organisation has warned that disease epidemics could double the tsunami death toll unless help reaches survivors quickly. Typhoid, cholera and dysentery could spread because water systems have been contaminated by sewage. Overcrowded camps are fertile grounds for respiratory diseases and mosquito-borne malaria and dengue fever. In addition, at least 300,000 injured people are in urgent need of medical care, WHO said.

Another challenge for relief teams lies in the extensive geographical scope of the disaster in what is one of the world's most densely populated regions. Aid agencies are accustomed to dealing with localised natural disasters, rather than one that spread across several time zones.

Kofi Annan, the United Nations secretary general, said the UN would make its biggest disaster appeal soon, exceeding its previous record of $1.6bn for Iraq in 2003. Margareta Wahlstrom, UN deputy emergency relief co-ordinator, has been appointed to oversee tsunami-related aid programmes. Nearly $2bn has already been pledged by 40 countries, led by Japan with $500m, and the World Bank. European governments are planning to hold an international donors conference next weekend.

Most of the aid will flow to Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India, the poorest and worst affected countries. Comparatively affluent Thailand and Malaysia are in less dire need of outside financial aid and support. But the international effort has also been marked by diplomatic bickering, with persistent criticism that the US was not doing enough. Jan Egeland, UN undersecretary for humanitarian affairs, suggested wealthy countries were being “stingy” toward the developing world. Although Mr Egeland's comments were not directed specifically toward the US or its response to the tsunami crisis, US president George W. Bush called the remarks “ill-informed and misguided”.

In an apparent response, however, the US has increased its initial pledge of $35m aid to $350m and Colin Powell, US secretary of state, said yesterday that the US might increase that amount later on.

Domestic critics of the Bush administration have lamented the slowness of the initial US reaction, with Mr Bush waiting three days to make a televised address on the disaster. But the delivery of supplies to the region by US military transport aircraft and ships over the weekend has muted criticism and prompted Mr Egeland to say the US was doing a “phenomenal job”.

The dispute about donations, however, appears irrelevant with relief efforts bogged down on the ground. The huge scale of the disaster has posed enormous logistical problems in helping survivors, especially in more isolated areas where much of the infrastructure has been destroyed.

Peter Rees, head of operations support for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said he expected a “very confused situation” for the first couple of weeks, with many governments and other organisations sending supplies, often unsolicited, to stricken nations and clogging airports and warehouses. “Unsolicited goods get in the way,” he said. Sumatra's biggest airport at Medan is already overstretched and naval vessels are trying to ferry supplies directly to Banda Aceh and the west coast.

Local governments are being criticised for their slow response. The disaster represents the biggest test for Susilo Bambang Yuhhoyono since he became Indonesian president in October on promises of improving government efficiency. That image is being threatened by officials struggling to deliver relief supplies, with the local administration paralysed and medical services in disarray. At the weekend, however, the relief effort in Aceh was finally getting under way in earnest. But the clean-up in Indonesia remains slow. Officials in Banda Aceh estimate that at least 30,000 bodies still need to be buried in the city alone. Supply shortages throughout the country have eased, however, with “enough food in the country to feed 500,000 people for two months”, according to Mohamed Saleheen, WFP director for Indonesia.

With roads washed out, hundreds of people have been walking to Banda Aceh in search of supplies and shelter. “If there was medicine and food [where we were] it would be better for us to stay,” said Siti Hawa, who was taking her daughter to Banda Aceh for medical treatment.

Throughout Asia, there are allegations that governments failed to warn local populations of the impending tsunami in spite of receiving two to three hours' advance notice before they struck. Seismologists at Thailand's meteorological office admitted they knew within minutes that a powerful earthquake had struck but hesitated to issue a tsunami warning because they were afraid they might be wrong and could trigger mass panic, damaging the tourist industry.

“If we issue a warning about the possibility and then the tsunami does not occur, the meteorological office will have many telephone calls complaining about our prediction,” said Sumalee Prachaub, a Thai seismologist.

Early reports to New Delhi that military bases on the Andaman and Nicobar islands had been struck by a tsunami were lost in the maze of the Indian bureaucracy, according to local reports. Indian Ocean countries lack a sea-based tsunami warning system. But even if early warnings had been given by television and loudspeaker, many people might have been unable to flee because of the poor coastal road network in some areas.

Amid the regional devastation and shock, however, one positive aspect is that the immense cost of reconstruction will be manageable if enough international aid pledges are met. Munich Re, the world's largest insurer, estimates total damages will amount to $14bn. This pales in comparison with the $132bn in losses resulting from Japan's Kobe earthquake in 1995, which killed about 5,000 people.

Economists believe the tsunami will have only a minimal effect on the economic growth of Thailand and Indonesia this year as no big industrial or port facilities were damaged. One Indian civil servant described the economic impact on India as “profound but localised” in coastal areas, with the Mumbai stock market performing well last week. Only the tiny Maldives, heavily dependent on tourism, might suffer a big setback in growth.

Tourism is seen as the regional industry worst affected by the disaster, which damaged prime resorts in Thailand, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Analysts expect a travel slowdown for at least the first quarter of 2005 although the industry has proved resilient in face of previous crises, such as the outbreak of the Sars respiratory disease in 2003.

Airlines have reported numerous cancellations to some regional holiday destinations but resorts such as Phuket may fully recover by as early as the middle of the year because the Thai government is likely to make its reconstruction a top priority. Some local hotels are already back in business. Insurers believe pay-outs will be limited. “Insurance penetration in a lot of the countries affected is very small and in places like India foreign insurers have not been allowed in anyway,” said Andrew Martin, insurance analyst at Alliance Capital in Sydney.

How the reconstruction effort is handled could provide both political risks and opportunities, particularly in Aceh and Sri Lanka, which have been riven by separatist conflicts for more than 20 years. Rescue efforts there could promote reconciliation between the Free Aceh Movement and Jakarta, and between Tamil rebels and the Sinhalese-dominated government in Sri Lanka. There were early signs of hope after the tsunami, with a ceasefire called in Aceh and Indonesia lifting a ban on international aid agencies entering the province. Chandrika Kumaratunga, the Sri Lankan president, promised to work with the Tamil Tigers to bring aid to rebel-controlled areas, among the worst affected on the island, which could strengthen a shaky ceasefire declared in 2002.

There is a danger that the bungling of relief efforts and widespread corruption, particularly in Aceh, could fuel alienation among local populations toward central governments.

However, improved co-ordination and joint action between south-east Asian countries could strengthen awareness of such issues. Already regional officials say they are likely to discuss closer co-operation in tackling other natural disasters, such as the smog that sometimes blankets the region from forest fires. If the tsunami do promote a new sense of shared responsibilities throughout Asia, it may be the only positive note in one of the cruellest misfortunes that the region has ever had to face.

By John Burton in Singapore, Shawn Donnan in Banda Aceh, Amy Kazmin in Thailand, Ray Marcelo in Sri Lanka, Khozem Merchant in New Delhi, Christopher Swann in Washington and Frances Williams in Geneva
海啸灾难的代价无可估量

印尼亚齐省首府班达亚齐(Banda Aceh)。市政厅钟楼上的钟定格在上午8时25分。12月26日的这一时刻，一场巨大的海啸袭击了这座省会城市。班达亚齐位于印尼苏门答腊岛(Sumatra)的北端。


在此之前约25分钟，苏门答腊岛西北海岸以外的缅甸板块和印度板块发生移动，引发了一场里氏9.0级的地震，这是40年来世界上最大的地震。地震掀起的巨大海浪在浩瀚的印度洋上以高达645公里的时速飞快推进。

海水先从海岸线退却…

全世界最严重的自然灾害之一就这样开始了，这场灾害波及11个国家，在亚洲导致了二战以来蔓延最广的破坏。目击者们都报告看到了同样的景象：海水开始冒泡，并从海岸线退却，然后变成黑色，以高达15米的巨浪滚滚而来，狂暴地冲向陆地。

在印尼遭袭后不到两个小时，海啸到达了印尼以北400公里的泰国和马来西亚。在泰国的海滨度假胜地蔻立(Khao Lak)、披披岛(Phi Phi)和普吉岛(Phuket)，正在享受圣诞假期的度假者看到一堵堵水墙从海中升起，以排山倒海之势冲向海滩前沿的的酒店。在这个如仙境般晴好的日子，许多人被巨浪卷入茫茫大海，另一些人则淹死在宾馆房间中。

“我没办法救我的孩子”

在接下来半个小时内，一连串海啸袭击了印度东部1000公里的狭长地带，主要在泰米尔纳德邦(Tamil Nadu)境内。年轻妇女阿穆莎(Amutha)看着自己一岁和三岁的两个儿子被海浪冲垮的一堵墙压倒。“那堵墙也向我倒来。我没办法去救我的孩子，”她躺在医院病床上说。

与此同时，巨浪横扫了斯里兰卡东南沿海，吞噬了一列至少载有800名乘客的火车。而在地势较低的马尔代夫(Maldives)以及属于印度的安达曼和尼科巴群岛(Andaman and Nicobar)，一些岛屿在海浪下消失。海啸无情推进，一直到达距离震中6400公里的非洲东部沿岸，此时已是地震发生7小时后。

海啸所过之处，都留下浩劫般的惨剧。死亡人数超过13万，成千上万的人失踪，受伤者人数更多，还有数百万人无家可归。大多数受害者是穷人，他们中许多人是生活在偏僻沿海地区破烂村落中的渔民。“受害者是我们社会中受教育最少、资源最少和地位最低下的人群，”印度一位政府部长马尼?桑卡尔?艾亚尔(Mani Shankar Aiyar)说。

确切死亡人数无法统计

确切的死亡人数将永远无法得知，很重要的原因是，失踪者中有那么多人已被海水吞噬，他们的尸体也许要过几个月才会被冲上岸。在一些最偏远的地区，一些村子被整个卷走，而关于当地居民姓名和人数的信息非常少。对于被发现的遗体，要确认他们的身份已变得极其困难，部分原因是这么多尸体被泡得肿胀，正在腐烂。尽管西方的法医专家队伍已到达某些受灾地区，帮助搜集DNA样本，并协助身份辨认过程，但医疗、警察和法医队伍仍然承受着巨大压力。

印尼的伤亡人数最高。政府卫生部长周日表示，最终死亡人数可能会超过10万。搜救队到达偏僻的苏门答腊西部沿海地区后，伤亡统计数字还在攀升。那里是受灾最严重的地区之一。但斯里兰卡遭受的人均伤亡损失被认为是最为惨重的。目前已证实有约3万人丧生，另有7.5%的人口无家可归。印度的死亡人数在1.5万左右。泰国官方统计有4800人死亡，但仍有6000多人失踪，官员们担心其中大部分人已经死了。人们认为，在亚洲以外，瑞典和其它北欧国家的死亡人数最多，因为对那些逃离北方冬天的游客来说，泰国是最好的旅游目的地。

如果海啸在夜间袭来，那么死亡人数可能要多得多，因为那时大多数人都已入睡，意识不到所发生的一切。尽管总的死亡人数仍低于1976年中国唐山大地震的25万(独立机构的估计数字为惊人的65万)，但人们越来越担心，海啸造成的死亡人数可能会急剧上升。

世界卫生组织发出警告

目前该地区有300万至500万人缺少食品、清洁水和栖身之所等基本必需品，世界卫生组织(WHO)已发出警告：除非幸存者能很快获得帮助，否则流行病可能会令海啸死亡人数翻倍。鉴于供水系统已被污水污染，伤寒、霍乱和痢疾可能蔓延。过分拥挤的难民营是呼吸道疾病、蚊子传播的疟疾和登革热的温床。此外，世卫组织表示，至少30万受伤者急需医疗救护。

救援机构面临挑战

救援队伍面对的另一个挑战是，这场发生在全球人口最密集地区之一的灾难涉及多个地理区域。援助机构习惯于对付局部范围的自然灾害，而不擅长对付跨越几个时区的灾难。

联合国秘书长科菲?安南(Kofi Annan)表示，联合国很快将发出其有史以来最大的救灾呼吁，救助规模将超出此前提供给伊拉克的创记录的16亿美元。联合国紧急救援副协调员玛格丽塔?维尔斯托姆(Margareta Wahlstrom)已被任命负责与海啸有关的救援计划。以日本为首的40个国家连同世界银行已承诺捐款20亿美元，其中日本答应捐助5亿美元。欧洲各国政府正计划在下周末举办国际捐助者大会。

大部分救援流向印尼、斯里兰卡和印度，它们是最贫穷、受灾也最严重的国家。相对富裕的泰国和马来西亚并不太急需外来的财务援助和支持。

但是国际救援努力中也存在外交争执的痕迹，美国一直被批评做得不够多。联合国负责人道主义事务的副秘书长让?埃格兰(Jan Egeland)一度暗示说，富裕国家对待发展中国家很“吝啬”。尽管埃格兰先生的评论没有直接针对美国或其对海啸灾难的反应，但美国总统乔治?W.?布什(George W. Bush)还是称此种评论“对情况了解不够且受到误导”。

美国作出积极反应

然而，美国还是作出了明显的反应，它将最初承诺的3500万美元援助金额提高到3.5亿美元。美国国务卿科林?鲍威尔(Colin Powell)昨天还表示，稍后美国可能还会提高援助金额。

美国国内批评布什政府的人士抱怨，美国最初的反应太慢，布什等了三天才就这场灾难发表电视讲话。但随着美军运输机和船只在周末将救援物品送达灾区，对美国的批评声有所减弱。埃格兰先生也表示，美国在开展“杰出的工作”。

海啸形成示意图：


(待续)

约翰?伯顿(John Burton) 新加坡、肖恩?多纳(Shawn Donnan)班达亚齐、埃米?卡兹明(Amy Kazmin)泰国、雷?马赛罗(Ray Marcelo)斯里兰卡、霍泽姆?麦钱特(Khozem Merchant)新德里、克里斯托弗?斯旺(Christopher Swann)华盛顿和弗朗西斯?威廉姆斯(Frances Williams)日内瓦报道

海啸受灾国在经济上躲过一劫
Asian Economies Escape Worst of Tsunami

The long-term economic impact of the Asian tsunami is likely to be surprisingly small for a disaster so big, but economists warn that the outlook could change if governments and international aid organizations don't act more quickly to arrest outbreaks of disease and potential social unrest.

The Dec. 26 tsunami is notable not just for the sheer number of people who died, but also for the wide geographic swath of its destruction. Yet as more information becomes available about what was damaged, it appears that most of South and Southeast Asia's key economic infrastructure -- including ports and transportation networks -- remains intact.

WAVE OF DESTRUCTION



See complete coverage of the earthquake and tsunami in South Asia.



Crucial services such as banking and telecommunications in large population centers were mostly unaffected. Vital manufacturing zones, including a cluster of semiconductor factories in Malaysia, were generally left unscathed. And heavy government and private relief spending is likely to cushion the economic blow, perhaps even boosting certain sectors, such as construction, in affected areas.

All told, the disaster is expected to shave at worst a few tenths of a percentage point off economic growth in the region this year, and might not slow the rate of expansion at all in some countries, including India and Indonesia. If those projections pan out, the disaster could prove to be less debilitating, economically speaking, than last year's rise in oil prices. It would also be far less debilitating than the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003, which pushed some Asian countries into recession.


Although the total cost of tsunami-related damage in the region is still unknown, it is expected to come in below the cost of some other recent natural disasters, including four hurricanes in Florida last year that caused an estimated $22 billion to $25 billion in damage.

"If you look at [the disaster] from just cold numbers, it doesn't seem to be that substantial an impact," said Joseph Lau , an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong. "The key thing is that the major industrial areas were unaffected, and trade will be largely unaffected by these tragic events."

The relatively upbeat economic assessments understate the social misery caused by the tsunami, which has displaced millions of people, many of them poor and uninsured. And economists stressed that their forecasts could change significantly if more relief money and medical assistance aren't forthcoming. Unchecked outbreaks of disease would raise the overall economic cost of the tsunami and delay the return of tourists.

There are also risks of social unrest in some areas if assistance isn't made available more quickly. Looters carrying refrigerators, furniture and other goods have been arrested in Sri Lanka.

Even so, many economists who spent the past several days crunching numbers are concluding that the damage could have been much worse.

Malaysia is a case in point. One of the country's most important manufacturing zones is on the island of Penang in northwest Malaysia, fewer than 400 miles from the earthquake's epicenter. The island is home to high-technology factories for global companies such as electronics maker Flextronics International Ltd. and Agilent Technologies Inc., which makes test and measuring equipment.

But while some hotels and a few hundred fishing boats on the island's shores were affected, none of the factories have reported damage because they are located away from the waterfront, said Toh Kin Woon, Penang's state minister for economic planning.

Even tourism in Asia is expected to bounce back relatively quickly. After the outbreak of SARS, tourist arrivals to Asia fell 60% to an annual rate of about 32 million in the spring of 2003 from about 80 million a few months earlier, according to investment bank J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Economists say Thailand could suffer a 50% drop in tourists over the next 12 months. But other countries such as Indonesia and India would likely experience fewer cancellations, because prime tourist spots, such as Bali, weren't harmed.

Economists generally agree that Thailand is likely to suffer the biggest economic damage among large economies in the region. Tourism accounts for about 6% of Thailand's economic output, compared with just 2.1% in Indonesia and 0.7% in India.

In addition to the damage to some prominent resorts, "it isn't clear whether the beaches, which are now in a mud-like condition, can ever be restored," Credit Suisse First Boston said.

But after several years of strong growth, the Thai economy is flush with cash, which should allow Thai officials to spend heavily on reconstruction efforts. The government has approved about 28 billion baht, or about $700 million, in emergency funds for affected areas -- a total that already surpasses some estimates of the overall damages.

Even in the Indonesian province of Aceh, which bore the brunt of the earthquake's destruction, key economic assets, including coal and copper mines and oil and gas operations, appear mostly intact. Aceh accounts for about 2% of Indonesia's economic output.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said yesterday the government remains confident the country will achieve 5.5% economic growth this year. Separately, Finance Minister Jusuf Anwar said that the government will grant tax breaks to foreign investors to boost investment.

In India, the affected areas account for about 16% of the country's economic output. Large parts of India's fishing industry were wiped out. But the major port of Madras, which accounts for about 10% of India's throughput, suffered only minor damage, and the country's dynamic services and software sectors are likely to be unhurt, economists said.

Hard-hit Sri Lanka will likely suffer more. Although much of the island's industrial infrastructure is inland, tourism and fishing are important enough to the economy that growth could be cut by as much as a full percentage point this year, some economists said.
海啸受灾国在经济上躲过一劫

尽管上周的印度洋海啸灾难受灾面积之大、伤亡人数之多触目惊心，但它对受灾国经济的长期影响可能小得出人意料。不过，经济学家们警告说，受灾国政府和国际救援组织如果不能迅速提供援助，造成疾病大规模蔓延并引发社会骚乱，就会给各受灾国经济发展的前景蒙上阴影。

12月26日爆发的海啸之所以牵动人心不止是因为有大量人员伤亡，还因为它造成了大面积破坏。不过，随著受灾损失最新数据的不断公布，看起来南亚和东南亚受灾国的港口、运输网络等重要经济基础设施基本上安然无恙。

人口稠密地区的银行、电信等重要服务行业大多数也未受到影响。马来西亚的半导体制造厂区等重要的制造业基地也基本上完好无损。政府和民间的大量资金援助有可能减轻经济损失，或许还能推动部分行业的发展，如建筑行业等。

总而言之，最坏的预计是此次海啸会导致该地区今年的经济增长率放缓零点几个百分点，而印度和印尼等国家的经济增长还有可能丝毫不受影响。如果这个预期得到验证，那么从经济学的角度来讲，这次海啸的影响还不如去年油价飙升那样严重，也远远不能和2003年爆发的导致一些亚洲经济体陷入衰退的非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情相提并论。

尽管海啸造成的相关损失数据目前尚未统计出来，但其破坏力应该低于近年来的几起自然灾害事件，例如去年席卷佛罗里达州的4次飓风造成的220亿-250亿美元损失。

瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)驻香港的经济学家Joseph Lau表示，如果单从经济数据的角度来看，海啸并未产生多大影响。关键的一点在于重要的制造业地区没有受到影响，受灾国的贸易基本上也没有受到冲击。

但相对乐观的经济前景并不能掩盖海啸给社会带来的巨大不幸。数百万人民流离失所，许多人一贫如洗还没有保险。目击报导称，印度、印尼、斯里兰卡及泰国一些地区的整个渔村毁于一旦。

此外，经济学家著重指出，如果新的资金和医疗援助不能及时到位，他们会考虑调整对这些受灾国经济前景的看法。疾病的肆虐将加重整个经济的负担，并打击旅游业的复苏。

一些地区如果不能及时获得援助就会引发社会骚乱。例如，斯里兰卡政府已经逮捕了一些掠夺财物的不法分子。

即便如此，过去几天来一直在评估海啸破坏程度的许多经济学家现在都认为，破坏程度还不算十分严重。

马来西亚就是一个证明。马来西亚西北部的槟城是重要的制造业基地，距离震中不到650公里。这里的众多高科技生产企业都是伟创力国际(Flextronics International Ltd.)和安捷伦科技公司(Agilent Technologies Inc.)等全球知名企业的供应商。

槟城主管经济规划的官员Toh Kin Woon表示，虽然岸边的一些酒店和数百艘渔船受到影响，但由于远离海边，岛上的那些工厂无一受损。他表示，虽然旅游业会出现一定程度的滑坡，但影响并不严重。

但即便受创，亚洲的旅游业也能以相对较快的速度得到恢复。例如，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)的数据显示，在SARS疫情之后，2003年春季到亚洲观光的游客人数折合成年率从几个月之前的约8,000万人骤减60%，至3,200万人。经济学家们认为来泰国旅游观光的人数将在未来12个月内锐减50%。但印尼、印度等国旅游业受到的冲击相对较小，因为巴厘岛等一些最知名的旅游景点没有受到海啸的影响。

经济学家们普遍认为在经济规模较大的受灾国中，泰国有可能是损失最为惨重的国家。泰国的旅游业收入占到该国经济总量的6%左右，而在印尼和印度这个比例分别只有2.1%和0.7%。

瑞士信贷第一波士顿认为，除了一些知名度假胜地遭到破坏之外，海啸还可能给泰国旅游业的一大风景──珊瑚礁造成损坏，而珊瑚礁需要很长的时间才能再生。另外，现在遍地泥泞的海滩还能不能恢复原样尚属未知。摩根大通预计泰国经济在2005年第一季度将无法实现增长，而海啸发生前的预期为增长3%。但摩根大通也表示泰国经济有望在第二季度重拾升势。

泰国的主要港口等重要的基础设施大部分都位于曼谷，因此绝大多数都没有遭到海啸的破坏。在经过了连续数年的经济快速发展之后，泰国政府现在财力雄厚，因此可以为灾后重建提供大量资金。泰国政府已经同意为受灾地区紧急拨款约280亿泰铢（合7亿美元），这一金额已经超过了一些人士对损失总额的估计值。

即便是在受到地震灾害较为严重的印尼亚齐省，煤矿、铜矿、油气开采等重要的财产基本上也是完好无损。亚齐省的经济产值占印尼经济总产值的2%左右。

1月3日，印尼总统苏西洛?班邦?尤多约诺(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)表示政府对于在2005年实现5.5%的经济增长率仍然充满信心。此外，印尼财长安瓦尔(Jusuf Anwar)也于当天表示，政府准备向外国投资者提供多项税收减免以鼓励他们来印尼投资。但安瓦尔并未指明印尼政府何时开始实施税收减免措施。

印度受灾地区的经济产值占国内生产总值的16%左右。现在，印度的大部分捕捞业已经荡然无存。但经济学家们表示，吞吐量占印度港口总吞吐量约10%的重要港口钦奈港只是轻微受损，而且，印度充满活力的服务及软件业很可能也是完好无损。

另一个严重受灾的地区斯里兰卡受到的冲击可能要较为严重。一些经济学家认为，尽管大部分工业基础设施处于内陆地区，但旅游业和捕捞业在斯里兰卡国民经济中占有相当重要的份量，因此斯里兰卡今年的经济增长率最高可能下降整整1个百分点。

海啸灾难的三大启示

Global lessons from a tragedy

The full scale of the catastrophe around the shores of the Indian Ocean is only slowly emerging. The death toll rises by tens of thousands each day, with the prospect that it could redouble if epidemics of typhoid, cholera and hepatitis take hold. Indonesia alone may have suffered 80,000 dead, if the latest estimates are accurate It marks a ghastly end to a grim year.


Of course it was not preventable, or even predictable. Perhaps an early-warning system might have been able to reduce the death toll by a few thousand, but it would not have prevented the devastation of homes, infrastructure and livelihoods in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and all the other countries that saw their coastlines wrecked by tidal waves.

At least it was not a man-made disaster. The human race can still not quite match the awesome power of nature, even if we try our damnedest. But now it is up to humanity to attempt to repair the damage. That means making a clear analysis of what has happened.

The first lesson we need to learn, at least in the wealthy western world, is that instant information can easily distort reality. The first pictures came in from the tourist resorts of Thailand, and then Sri Lanka, where digital cameras and mobile phones could provide terrifying immediacy. The media focused predictably, but wrongly, on the plight of tourists.

It is clear now that the worst devastation has been in the war-torn Indonesian province of Aceh, at the northern tip of Sumatra, where martial law has prevented access for international aid workers for two years. So we still have no precise picture of the damage. The worst-affected was the last to report. It will also be the most difficult place to bring emergency aid, thanks to politics as much as poverty.

The overall death toll is dreadful, and dominates the headlines. Every single loss of life is a tragedy to the family that has lost a loved one. Yet for those who have survived, the lasting threat is the utter destruction of their homes and means of livelihood.

The second lesson is that, as ever, it is the poorest who lose the most. The middle classes may have insurance policies, savings and relatives to whom they can turn in an emergency. The poor have no safety net. While the shores of the Indian Ocean may be an exotic location for tourist hotels, they are also a great attraction for those who can just eke out an existence from fishing. Hence the proliferation of shanty homes that were ripped apart by the giant waves.

Why are they so poor and unprotected? Partly because they live in regions exposed to natural disasters, although none has matched this one in living memory. But far more could be done by their governments. Too often, earthquakes have proved more destructive than they would otherwise have been because of shoddy building work carried out by corrupt contractors: Armenia in the former USSR, the last Turkish earthquake outside Istanbul, and Gujarat in India spring to mind. Will this be different?

The third lesson is that emergency relief is only the first step in a huge aid effort that is needed to revive these smashed communities. The first frantic phase, while all the world watches, is the search for and recovery of the victims, and the effort to prevent the death toll rising: providing clean water, food, shelter and medicines.

The second phase is to ensure that the relief is sustainable, getting teams on the ground to support those who have lost their homes and families until they can provide for themselves. The next task is reconstruction: rebuilding roads and bridges and electricity and water supplies. In some ways, that should be the most straightforward.

But the really challenging phase is to provide the survivors whose existence was in many cases desperate before the disaster with new livelihoods. It means tackling the underlying causes of poverty, providing health and schooling and ending political discrimination against minority groups and the poor.

Governments are often not so good at that. Nor are potential donors in the richer nations. Emergency relief is so much more popular than long-term reconstruction. Public attention will have moved on to other crises long before the final phase is under way. Christmas charity donations will be forgotten.

The biggest source of funding for any massive relief effort, however, will come from the richest governments: from the US, Europe and Japan. But will they promise new money, or simply transfer cash from one disaster to another? From Africa to Aceh, for example? That is what happened last year, when $1.6bn was raised for relief in Iraq, largely at the expense of less glamorous crises in Africa. There is also a tendency for donors to make high-profile promises, and then to fail to deliver the full amount when public attention moves on.

Finance is one challenge. Co-ordination is another. There is an obvious need to prevent all the aid agencies falling over each other, and overwhelming the administrative capacity of the crisis-hit country. The United Nations is the only organisation capable of the co-ordination task, whatever conservative critics in Washington may say. It takes a huge crisis to make that clear. The UN and its agencies may not be perfect, but they are the best we have got. No national agency, such as USAid or Britain's Department for International Development, can hope to match their range and resources. But they will only be as effective as their funding allows.

The other task for the UN is to ensure that aid goes to the neediest groups, not just those favoured by the local government. There is a hope that this huge disaster will bring the warring factions together in Sri Lanka and Indonesia. But the signs are mixed: in Sri Lanka, the government and the rebel Tamil Tigers refuse to co-operate. In Aceh, at least, the rebel Free Aceh Movement has ordered a ceasefire. The UN must ensure that aid remains neutral.

Undoubtedly the countries of Asia can do more themselves. In the long term, they need to pay for early-warning systems, and provide more joint protection against the worst disasters. But when there is a catastrophe of this magnitude, it is right that the whole world joins forces to give relief, and not just for a matter of months. The headlines will fade.
海啸灾难的三大启示

印度洋沿岸的灾难全景刚开始慢慢显现。死亡人数的上升每天数以万计。如果伤寒、霍乱和肝炎等传染病肆虐，死亡人数可能翻倍。根据最新的估计数据，仅印尼一国就可能已有8万人丧生。悲惨的一年就以这样一种可怕的方式收场了。


灾难当然无法避免，甚至不可预测。早期预警系统或许可以减少几千死亡人数，但不可能阻止印尼、斯里兰卡、印度和其它国家的海岸线遭到海啸的破坏，无数家园、基础设施和生计毁于一旦。

人类必须救灾

至少这不是一场人为灾难。即使人类竭尽全力，也还是无法与大自然令人生畏的力量抗衡。但现在要靠人类来努力修复损失。这意味着对所发生的灾难进行清楚的分析。

即时信息会扭曲现实

至少在富裕的西方世界，我们必须汲取的第一个教训是，即时信息可以轻易扭曲现实。灾难的第一批画面来自泰国的旅游胜地，然后是斯里兰卡。数码相机和移动电话可以提供这些地方骇人的即时图象。不出所料，媒体将报道重点放在游客们的困境上，但它们做错了。

目前已经很清楚，受灾最严重的地区是久经战乱的印尼亚齐省。该省位于苏门答腊岛北端。由于实行戒严令，国际援助人员已有两年无法进入该地区。因此我们仍然不知道灾难的确切面貌。受灾最严重的地方报道得最晚。由于政治原因和贫穷落后，这也将是紧急救援最难到达的地方。

死亡总人数非常可怕，并主导着各家媒体的头条新闻。对于失去亲人的家庭来说，每一条生命的离世都是个悲剧。但对于那些幸存者来说，家园和生计的彻底被毁乃是持久的威胁。

最贫穷的人损失最大

第二个教训是，最贫穷的人损失最大，古往今来都是如此。中产阶级或许有保单，有储蓄，还有亲戚，遇到紧急情况时有投靠去处。穷人则没有任何安全网。富有异国情调的印度洋海岸固然是开旅游酒店的好地方，但这些地方对那些靠捕鱼谋生的人来说也很有吸引力。因此那里有许多棚户，可这些简陋的房屋都被巨浪摧毁了。

他们为什么这么穷、又如此缺乏保护呢？部分原因是，他们生活在自然灾害频发的地区，尽管在人们的记忆中，没有一场灾害能与这一次相比。但这些国家的政府原本可以更有作为。由于腐败承包商承建的工程质量低劣，地震造成的破坏往往比本来会有的程度更大：人们会马上想起前苏联的亚美尼亚、上次发生在土耳其伊斯坦布尔城外的地震，以及印度的古杰拉邦。这次会有什么不一样？

紧急救援只是第一步

第三个教训是，为了帮助遭沉重打击的社会恢复生机，必须开展庞大的援助行动，而紧急救援只是援助行动的第一步。在全世界的关注下，忙乱的第一阶段是搜寻受害者遗体，并采取措施防止死亡人数上升：提供清洁水源、食品、临时居所和药品。

第二阶段是确保救援的可持续性，把救援人员派到现场，让他们去支持那些失去家园和亲人的灾民，直到灾民恢复生存能力。接下来的任务是重建：重新修路架桥、重建电力和供水系统。从某些角度上说，这应该是最直截了当的事。

真正富于挑战的阶段，是为幸存者提供新的生计。这些人的生存状况往往在灾难降临前就很艰难。这意味着解决造成贫困的根源，提供医疗和学校教育，并终止对少数民族和穷人的政治歧视。

许多国家的政府往往在这方面不太擅长。较富裕国家的潜在捐助人也是如此。紧急救援远比长期重建更能打动人心。早在上述最后阶段展开之前，公众的注意力就会转移到其它危机上了。圣诞节慈善捐赠将被人遗忘。

资金

然而，任何大规模救援行动的最大资金来源将是那些最富裕的政府：美国、欧洲和日本。但他们将会许诺新的资助，或只是把救援资金从一场灾难挪到另一场灾难上？例如从非洲转到亚齐？去年就发生了这样的事，有16亿美元被筹集起来用于对伊拉克的救助，但这主要是以减少对非洲一些危机的救助为代价的，这些危机已相对不那么引人瞩目。捐赠者还倾向于做出高调许诺，而当公众注意力转移后就不会完全履行承诺的援助金额。

联合国

资金问题是一个挑战，配合协调则是另一个挑战。显然，有必要防止各援助机构互相争斗，压垮受援国的行政能力。不管华盛顿的保守派批评人士会说什么，联合国终究是唯一有能力执行协调任务的组织。也只有一场严重的危机能说明这一点。联合国及其下属机构也许并不完美，但它们是我们拥有的最佳手段。就运作范围及资源而言，美国国际开发署(USAID)和英国国际发展部(Department for International Development)等任何国家机构都无法与之媲美。但联合国及其下属机构只能在资金许可的范围内发挥效力。

联合国的另一项任务是，确保援助到达最需要的人群，而不只是当地政府偏爱的人群。有人希望，这场巨大的灾难能使斯里兰卡和印尼国内交战的派系携手合作。但出现的迹象喜忧参半：在斯里兰卡，政府与叛军泰米尔猛虎拒绝合作。至少在印尼亚齐，反叛组织“自由亚齐运动”已发出停火命令。联合国必须确保援助的中立。

无疑，亚洲各国政府本身应能更有作为。长期而言，它们需要投资建立早期预警系统，并提供更多的联合保护措施，防范严重灾害。但当如此巨大的灾难发生时，世界应合力展开救援行动，而且不光是持续几个月。媒体头条将逐渐转移注意力，但援助努力决不能停止。

保险业盘点海啸损失

Tsunami: counting the cost

As aid agencies and governments were counting the human cost of the Asian tsunami tragedy three days after it hit, companies were forced to look at the implications for their businesses.


Some such as Zurich Financial Services said it was too early to assess its exposure to claims resulting from the tidal waves. Assessments in the case of flood damages can take six to eight weeks.

Extrapolating a preliminary estimate from reinsurer Munich Re of its own exposure, Numis the investment bank, said on Wednesday it had calculated the total insured loss to the non-life insurance industry to be in the region of $5bn - roughly equivalent to a single Florida hurricane.

Munich Re the reinsurance company said that it expected is own exposure to be limited to about �100m($136m).

Even before the tsunami hit on Sunday, 2004 was the costliest natural disaster year for the insurance industry, with losses of US$40bn. “We think share price movement will reflect adverse sentiment in the sector as the tsunamis serve as a further reminder of the global threat of catastrophe risk to insurers,” Numis said, adding that it is leaving 2004 forecasts unchanged.

“There is no precedent for this kind of event, unlike Atlantic hurricanes where historic data and risk modelling enable relatively quick and accurate estimates to be made,” it added.

First Choice Holidays said on Wednesday that it had nearly 1,200 customers in the areas affected by the tsunami in South East Asia on December 26 and that most of these had been accounted for. It said that the percentage of holidays affected by the event were “very small” and that this was not expected to have a material impact on the current year’s financial performance.

Shares in the company fell 1.5 per cent to 152.8p in morning trade.

Shares in insurance and leisure companies dropped in London and other European markets.

However the reality is that many individuals who may have lost relatives and property in the disaster are unlikely to see financial compensation. Many of those who died appear to be from the poorer sections of society who are typically uninsured and many policies also have tsunami and earthquake exclusion clauses.

In London, SVB Holdings dropped 7.1 per cent, Wellington Underwriting lost 1.7 per cent, Hiscox and Catlin Group fell 1.5 per cent, Goshawk Insurance, Chaucer Holdings, Royal Sun Alliance and Amlin all lost around 1 per cent.

In Europe, leisure groups accounted for the biggest losses. The UK-listed hotels groups were lower, as was Carnival, the cruise operator, and Tui, the German tour operator, fell a further 0.9 per cent to �17.43. Tour operators have fallen since the disaster over concerns that earnings will be hit by a decline in bookings and the cost of repatriation of those tourists caught up in the disaster.

Insurers put in mixed performances. Munich Re was down 0.5 per cent to �89.97, while Hannover Re shed 0.7 per cent t�28.63. Swiss Re, which fell sharply on Tuesday, recouped some of its losses, gaining 0.6 per cent to SFr80.50.
保险业盘点海啸损失

亚洲海啸悲剧过去3天后，在援助机构和政府统计人员伤亡的同时，各企业也被迫审视这一惨案对其的影响。苏黎世金融服务集团(Zurich Financial Services)等公司表示，现在估计公司所受影响、确定海啸带来的理赔额还嫌太早。洪灾理赔评估可能需要6到8周。


投资银行Numis周三表示，从慕尼黑再保险公司(Munich Re)的初步估计推断，它计算出非寿险行业的保险损失总额为50亿美元左右，大约相当于一次佛罗里达飓风带来的损失金额。

慕尼黑再保险公司(Munich Re)说，它的理赔金额预计将不超过约1亿欧元(合1.36亿美元)。

对保险业来说，即便周日的海啸袭击不发生，2004年也是自然灾害赔付最多的一年，行业损失达400亿美元。“我们认为，股价走势将反映市场对该板块的负面人气，因为这场海啸进一步提醒人们，灾害的风险对保险商造成了全球性的威胁，”Numis表示。公司还补充说，它维持2004年的预期不变。

12月26日的这次海啸发生在东南亚。First Choice Holidays周三表示，它在该地区有近1200个客户受到了这场海啸的影响，其中大多数人被找到。它表示，受这次事件影响的假日天数比例“相当小”，预计不会对本年度的业绩造成实质性的影响。

但事实是，许多个人不太可能得到经济补偿，而他们也许在这场灾难中失去了亲人和财产。死去的人中，有许多人似乎是来自社会较贫穷的阶层，他们通常没有投保，而且许多保单包括了海啸和地震的免赔条款。

世界各地向印度洋地震灾区捐款捐物

Donations Pile In From Companies, Individuals

Companies and individuals from around the world have joined the rush to aid victims of the tsunami disaster, donating cash, medicine and vital supplies.

Airlines are providing free travel for relief workers, and Coca-Cola Co. and PepsiCo Inc. have sent thousands of cases of bottled water.

Among Asian companies that do business in the region, South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. said it plans to donate $1 million, and about 10,000 Samsung employees in affected areas will volunteer for relief efforts. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., which has six factories in Southeast Asia and is the largest vehicle-maker in Indonesia and Thailand, pledged about $190,000. Another Japanese concern,Suzuki MotorCorp., the largest car maker in India, says it will contribute nearly $400,000 in cash and relief supplies.

PATH OF DESTRUCTION


? See complete coverage of the earthquake and tsunami in South Asia.

? Graphic: No Stranger to Troubles




Internet retailer Amazon.com Inc. replaced much of its home page with a plea for donations to the American Red Cross, which as of last night had attracted more than 54,000 individual donations totaling more than $3.4 million.

The American Red Cross had raised $18 million as of midday yesterday while CARE USA, based in Atlanta, has raised more than $3.5 million.

"This is the most significant donor response since September 11, which obviously dwarfed anything that anyone had ever seen before for spontaneous charitable giving," said Curt Welling, chief executive of AmeriCares Foundation, a relief organization in Stamford, Conn. The group expected to raise $2 million through yesterday and expects to receive at least $10 million of corporate product donations, including medical supplies.

The breadth of the destruction, the holiday season and the high number of children among the victims all help explain the rush to help, said Mr. Welling, who believes private donations in the U.S. alone are certain to exceed the initial $35 million earmarked by the U.S. government.

Drug makers and medical companies are responding with shipments of medical supplies and cash donations. Pfizer Inc. announced plans to donate $10 million to local and international relief organizations, including Save the Children and the International Rescue Committee, and said it would contribute about $25 million of its health-care products to the relief efforts.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. is sending antibiotics and other supplies, in addition to a $100,000 donation through the American Red Cross. Abbott Laboratories' charitable fund has donated supplies, including nutritional supplements, valued at $2 million, as well as an additional $2 million in cash. Merck & Co. is making an initial cash donation of $250,000.

Johnson & Johnson, in addition to contributing $2 million in cash, will match employee donations to the Red Cross, while the charitable arm of General ElectricCo. has pledged $1 million to the Red Cross's International Response Fund and $100,000 to Unicef's disaster-relief fund.

Li Ka-shing, one of Asia's richest people, and his flagship conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. together pledged about $3.1 million. Action-movie hero Jackie Chan has donated about $64,000 to Unicef.

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways told members of its frequent-flier program they could donate air miles -- which Cathay will match -- to help relief workers fly to disaster zones.

Meanwhile, tour operators and travel companies scrambled to bring clients home. SAS marshalled 15 planes to bring stranded tourists back to Scandinavian countries. Club Mediterranee, which said all 1,100 clients who were present at its three resorts in the afflicted region were safe, said it hoped to have flown all its European guests home by today. In Germany, tour operator TUI AG struggled to fix a potential public-relations disaster after one of its Austrian executives was quoted in a newspaper interview suggesting that a form of "catastrophe tax" should be levied to cover the costs of repatriation. The group later said it wouldn't charge any holiday makers the costs of flying them home.
世界各地向印度洋地震灾区捐款捐物

全球各地的企业和个人纷纷加入救援阵营，向遭到印度洋地震和海啸袭击的受灾民众捐献现金、药品、机器和其他必备品。

救援人员预计，由政府负责收集、来自民间的援助总额可能很快超过官方的援助。

各航空公司免费运送救援人员，可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co.)和百事公司(PepsiCo Inc.)已经向受灾地区提供了数千箱瓶装水。

零售商和媒体纷纷在各自的网站上增添援助链接，或设立捐款处。亚马孙公司(Amazon.com Inc.)网站首页的大部分被向美国红十字会(American Red Cross)捐赠的广告所代替，截至周三下午，已经收到43,722人次的个人捐款，总额接近250万美元。

美国红十字会截至周三下午已经收到捐款1,800万美元，总部设在亚特兰大的CARE USA则收到捐款350万美元。

全球数十家慈善机构也在各自的网站上纷纷刊登危机救援警告，并设立特别救援基金以吸收公众捐款。

制造商和医药公司也捐赠了大量药品现金。

辉瑞制药有限公司(Pfizer Inc.)宣布向当地和国际救援组织捐赠1,000万美元现金，并提供总额2,500万美元的公司产品用于救援目的。

百时美施贵宝公司(Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.)捐赠了抗生素等药品，并通过美国红十字会向灾区捐赠10万美元。
雅培制药(Abbott Laboratories)旗下的慈善基金捐赠了包括营养品在内的、总额200万美元的物资以及200万美元现金。

默克公司(Merck & Co.)的第一笔25万美元的现金捐款也已经到位。

强生公司(Johnson & Johnson)将首先捐助200万美元现金，同时还将在雇员向美国红十字会捐款的金额基础上追加一倍。

通用电气(General Electric Co.)旗下的慈善基金已承诺向国际红十字会的国际救援基金捐款100万美元，并向联合国教科文组织的灾难救援基金捐款10万美元。

与此同时，香港富豪李嘉诚及其旗舰公司和记黄埔(Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.)承诺捐款约310万美元，而中国政府截至周三上午的承诺援助金额为260万美元。

海啸余害将长期肆虐

Devastated region will have to face long-term damage

The devastating effects of the tsunamis that hit coastal regions across the Indian Ocean will be felt in the region long after the immediate damage has been cleared away.


Agricultural land may take years to recover fully from the inundation, while dead livestock will have to be replaced to allow farmers to restore their livelihoods. In some regions of Indonesia, water is reported to have reached as far as seven or eight miles inland.

“The fishing industry has been wiped out in many areas,” said Malcolm Fleming, a relief expert for the Oxfam aid agency in Sri Lanka.

“Agricultural land has been inundated. Fruit production has been badly affected. The shanty towns have been devastated and the tourist industry will suffer. There are short-term effects and long-term effects in evidence here. We have to form longer-term plans for helping people to recover.”

Severe flooding can sweep away not just crops growing in the fields, but also the nutrient-rich topsoil and some subsoil. It can destroy trees, particularly those along the shoreline, which would normally provide shelter against the wind for crops, livestock and homes. The high winds that accompany the onrush of water also have a scouring effect on the land.

Local wildlife may be badly hit by the waves and high winds. Flood defences also have to be rebuilt.

Perhaps more damagingly, the massive inundation of seawater has the effect of salinating local wells and water supplies. While this will subside as the seawater dissipates, it can render local water undrinkable for the crucial days immediately after the tsunami. Giant waves can sweep away the sand bars of river deltas that hold fresh water in the river for longer. When this happens, rivers empty their water into the sea much more quickly.

The lack of clean water may help to create the conditions for diseases such as hepatitis, typhoid and cholera to flourish. As sewage systems are also flooded by the influx of seawater, this compounds the problem. Raw sewage can infect the water supplies, and people's living areas.

Irrigation systems are also vulnerable to a tsunami's destructive effects. They may be washed away or rendered unusable. The massive quantities of salt water can further contaminate soils, rendering them unsuitable for many crops.

Pollutants can be washed into the water and soil from local industries or homes. Fuel tanks may rupture and leak their contents into the surrounding area.

As the tsunami hits sandy beaches, it can severely erode them, altering the coastal landscape perhaps permanently.

Coral reefs also can suffer severe damage when a tsunami hits. The reefs may be so battered by the powerful waves that parts of them are broken up and carried away, while the sealife that sustains the delicate ecosystems surrounding the reefs may be swept far out into the ocean or killed by being smashed against the rocks or sea bed. Murky water after tsunamis can prevent sunlight from reaching the coral sealife, which needs it to grow. These ecosystems, built over hundreds of years, could take many years to recover.

The Indian Ocean tsunamis were caused by an underwater earthquake, and had nothing to do with global warming and climate change.

However, they may give a foretaste of some of the disasters that experts are predicting as a result of climate change.
海啸余害将长期肆虐

袭击印度洋沿海地区的海啸所产生的破坏作用，将延续多年，远远超出人们消除其直接损害所需的时间。


农田可能需要数年时间从水灾中完全恢复，而农民要恢复生计，还须更换死亡的牲口。据报道，在印尼一些地区，海水已进入内陆达7至8英里。

“许多地区的渔业已被彻底摧毁，” 英国慈善组织乐施会(Oxfam)的救济专家马尔科姆?弗莱明(Malcolm Fleming)在斯里兰卡表示。

“农田已被水淹。水果生产遭受严重影响。棚户构成的小镇被摧毁，旅游业将受损。短期和长期效应都很明显。我们必须制定帮助人们恢复生计的长期计划。”

严重的洪水不仅会冲走长在田里的庄稼，而且也会冲走富含养分的表土和一些底土。洪水还会摧毁树木，尤其是那些海岸边的树木，正常情况下，这些树木能为庄稼、牲畜和家园遮风。大风伴随汹涌的水流，也会对土地造成冲刷效应。

缺少清洁水可能会滋生各种疾病，如肝炎、伤寒和霍乱。由于污水处理系统也灌满了涌入的海水，这一问题更加严重。污水不经处理就排放，会污染供水和人们的生活区域。

灌溉系统也容易受到海啸毁灭性破坏的影响。这些系统可能已被冲走，或者被冲得无法使用。大量含盐海水的涌入，可使土地遭受进一步污染，使其不适合种植多数作物。

海啸冲击沙滩时，可能已严重侵蚀了这些地方，甚至已永远改变了海岸地貌。

珊瑚礁也可能受到海啸的严重损害。珊瑚可能受到巨浪的强力冲击，其中一部分已被摧毁并冲走，而在珊瑚周围维持脆弱生态系统的海洋生物，可能已被刮至海洋深处，或由于被重重撞在礁石或海床上而死亡。海啸过后，海水一片浑浊，可能会阻止阳光照射到珊瑚礁周围的海洋生物上，而这些生物需要阳光才能生长。这些生态系统经过数百年才得以构成，现在可能需要多年才能复苏。

联合国将发出最大援助呼吁

UN to launch largest aid appeal for quake victims

The United Nations prepared to launch its largest aid appeal for victims of the Indian Ocean earthquake, as the World Health Organisation warned that disease could double the current death toll of more than 68,000 without a swift international response.


The scale of the catastrophe became clearer on Wednesday as officials in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand and India made contact with remote regions and sharply raised their estimates of the number of dead.

The total death toll in the disaster hit 68,000 as Sri Lanka reported 22,000 killed, Indonesia’s number of confirmed death reached 32,500, India's death toll passed 12,500 and Thailand reported 1,500 dead. The number of foreign tourists killed in the catastrophe remained unclear, as the Thai government said many hundreds of those killed in resorts in the south-west of the country were holidaymakers and Sweden reported 1,600 of its nationals missing.

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Louis Michel, the European Union's commissioner for development and humanitarian aid, on Tuesday proposed that the EU should organise a European donors' conference to “co-ordinate and share the job”.

Yvette Stevens, assistant UN emergency relief co-ordinator, said that in view of the extent of the disaster, the appeal to be issued next month could exceed the $1.6bn appeal for humanitarian aid to Iraq following the US-led invasion. The UN's financial monitoring system had recorded a total of $81m in donor assistance for the Asian tsunami victims.

Jan Egeland, the UN's emergency relief co-ordinator, softened his criticisms of a “stingy” response from international donors but said substantial pledges were still required. The US added $20m to its initial $15m contribution.

David Nabarro, head of the World Health Organisation's crises operations, warned that as many people could die from infectious diseases in the aftermath of the disaster as were killed by the initial flooding.

“The immediate terror associated with the tsunamis and the earthquake itself may be dwarfed by the longer-term suffering of the affected communities,” he said.

The WHO was most concerned about diarrhoeal diseases, vector-borne diseases such as malaria, and respiratory infections, as well as environmental pollution. But he said if basic necessities water, sanitation, food and shelter could reach survivors within two to three weeks, disease outbreaks could still be prevented. The WHO was also urging countries to focus on survivors rather than on disposing of dead bodies, which did not pose a significant health risk, he said.
联合国将发出最大援助呼吁

联合国昨天准备发出最大的援助呼吁，以援助印度洋地震的受害者。世界卫生组织警告说，如果没有国际社会的快速反应，疾病会使死亡人数翻倍。死亡人数当前已逾5.9万。


随着斯里兰卡、印尼、泰国和印度官员同偏远地区取得联系，并大幅提高对死亡人数的估计，这场灾难的规模变得更为清晰。

联合国紧急救助助理协调员伊维特?史蒂文斯(Yvette Stevens)表示，鉴于这场灾难的程度，下月发布的呼吁会超过对伊拉克人道主义援助呼吁的规模。在美国领导的对伊入侵后，对伊人道主义援助呼吁为16亿美元。据联合国金融监督体系的记录，对亚洲海啸受害者捐赠援助总额已达8100万美元。

联合国紧急援助协调员扬?埃格兰德(Jan Egeland)批评说，国际捐助者的反应“很小气”。虽然他已弱化了这种批评，但他仍表示，仍需要国际社会作出实质性承诺。美国最初的捐款达1500万美元，现已增加了2000万美元。

世界卫生组织的危机处理事务负责人戴维?纳瓦罗(David Nabarro)警告说，许多人灾后可能会死于传染病，可能和最初死于洪水的人数一样多。

“与海啸和地震本身导致的直接恐怖后果相比，受灾群体将遭受的长期痛苦可能更大，”他说。

世界卫生组织最关心的是痢疾、疟疾等病媒携带疾病和呼吸系统传染病，以及环境污染。

但他表示，如果幸存者能在2至3周内得到基本必需品，即水、卫生设施、食品和栖身之所，那么依然可以防止疾病爆发。

他表示，世卫组织也在敦促各国将重点放在幸存者上，而不是集中处理尸体，尸体不会引起严重的健康危险。

弗朗西斯?威廉姆斯(Frances Williams)日内瓦、拉斐尔?曼代(Raphael Minder)布鲁塞尔、肖恩?多南(Shawn Donnan)亚齐班达、艾米?卡兹明(Amy Kazmin)拷叻报道。