Dollar Loses Luster Among the Chinese
SHANGHAI -- The long lunch-hour lines at this city's downtown Bank of China are filled with people who not long ago stuffed their accounts with U.S. currency. Now they are dumping dollars.
Yuan Man, ticket No. 252 in line, has set aside more than $50,000 to support his son's dream to study in the U.S., but regrets not holding a stronger euro, or even a firm yen. Ron Chen, an Australian pharmaceutical executive, is paid monthly in dollars and converts each paycheck immediately into yuan. A middle-aged woman and her elderly mother sit nearby awaiting the arrival of an overseas wire transfer. They, too, plan to get rid of their dollars the same day.
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"The dollar doesn't mean anything anymore," says the woman.
From black marketers to anxious grandmothers, Chinese have become disenchanted with the dollar. The selling has posed problems for Beijing as it tries to keep the yuan pegged to the dollar, adding to pressure China is getting from its trading partners to revalue its currency.
The selling also signals a startling shift that may have damaging implications for the dollar down the line: Many Chinese view the yuan, also called the renminbi, as the safer currency to hold.
"The U.S. dollar is weakening! The renminbi is the hard currency now!" shouts a 40-year old man after pulling $10,000 out of U.S.-dollar-denominated stocks and plunking the sum into yuan deposits. "It's the best choice," he says.
Standing in line at the Bank of China, the 53-year old Mr. Yuan fears the pain of a revaluation. As owner of a small trading company, he has advised his customers to hold yuan, not dollars. But with a son eager to go to the U.S., he is reluctant to follow his own advice and convert his dollar savings.
"I would like to ask the U.S. government," says Mr. Yuan, "to please keep the dollar stable."
The U.S. government, while rhetorically calling for a strong dollar, has been quietly acceding to the dollar's slide on global currency markets amid steep budget and trade deficits. With China, a major trading partner, keeping its currency at a fixed rate to the dollar, the brunt of the dollar's weakening has been borne by currencies in Europe and Japan. The euro yesterday hit a new high against the dollar. (See related article.)
Washington is seeking to persuade China to loosen the controls on the yuan so it will strengthen against the dollar, as other major currencies are. The yuan trades at about 8.277 to the dollar and has been tethered to this level since 1994. China's top central bank officials have continued to repeat the watchword "stability" for the exchange rate, suggesting any moves to widen the trading band for the yuan will be slight and gradual.
Meanwhile, China's central bank has scrambled to buy dollars from ordinary Chinese who are selling them, to the tune of $20 billion in the first six months, according to an internal report from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
China's central bank yesterday also increased the incentive for holding dollars. The People's Bank of China said it would raise the dollar deposit rate for accounts of less than $3 million today. That will bring the one-year U.S. dollar deposit rate to 0.8750% from 0.5625%, according to a statement on the central bank's Web site, narrowing gaps with higher yuan deposit rates. In addition, the central bank has advised commercial banks to set their own interest-rate ceiling for two-year savings deposits denominated in dollars and other foreign currencies.
The moves follow late October's interest-rate rise on yuan deposits, the first such increase in nine years, and reflect a shift to more market-oriented policies to regulate China's capital flows. But Beijing also is relying on other means to soak up dollars and alleviate pressure on its exchange rate. China's central bank has scrambled to buy dollars from ordinary Chinese who are selling them, to the tune of $20 billion in the first six months, according to an internal report from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE.
Outside the banks, the yuan is in hot demand as well. A member of a black-market syndicate in Shanghai, a 35-year old surnamed Lu, says he is doing a booming business converting dollars to yuan. In the past, Mr. Lu's customers were those who needed dollars. They were mainly divided into three groups: those who were traveling overseas, those who were paying a child's foreign tuition and those who were smuggling goods into China. With the dollar weakening, demand has reversed and his customer base widened. Beginning around spring, he says, people started arriving with bigger money-changing requests: $10,000; $100,000; even $200,000 to $300,000.
Because Mr. Lu and his colleagues are having a difficult time reselling the dollars, they have lowered their exchange rate below what the banks are offering for the yuan. That hasn't slowed business, however. "People keep coming to us," Mr. Lu says. "They only want renminbi."
"Hot money," or speculative capital, coming into China is pressuring the yuan. But the return of money through legitimate channels also suggests a rush back to China to bet on a stronger yuan. China's portfolio and other capital inflows stood at $36.3 billion in the first half of the year, a little more than double that of the same period of last year. China's foreign-exchange reserves reached $514.54 billion at the end of September, increasing by about $12 billion a month.
At a closed-door meeting in Shanghai this month, banking regulators expressed concern about these developments. "The exchange rate is facing a lot of upward pressure," said Wang Zili, the deputy director at the central bank's branch in the southern city of Guangzhou, according to the minutes of the meeting. "Foreign reserves are increasing too quickly. A lot of capital is coming in through the black market betting on the yuan."
Despite the new pressures, China's capital controls give foreign-exchange regulators powerful tools. Companies must register to buy and sell yuan -- and can do so only for trade and services. Individuals may convert as much as $10,000 in a day, but they require special permission for more than that amount.
At the same time, the government is taking small steps to relax China's foreign-exchange system. This week, it announced Chinese emigrants would be allowed to take personal assets out of China, as long as the property has been obtained legally. Yesterday, China's financial regulators said students also could take more foreign currency with them.
One reason China may be reluctant to revalue its currency is that it is waiting to gauge what a proper adjustment might be. While the International Monetary Fund has said more flexibility on the exchange rate would give Beijing a better grip on monetary policy, it doesn't think the yuan is "substantially undervalued," according to a report released this month.
China also could be worried about the impact of a revaluation on its substantial dollar holdings, says Nicholas R. Lardy, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington. "Perhaps the [central bank] is focusing not just on the short term problems, but also on the huge hit they will take on the domestic currency value of official reserves," Mr. Lardy says.
Back at the Bank of China branch, the crowd shows no sign of thinning as the afternoon wears on. Every day is the same, says branch assistant manager Liu Hongli. The customers lining up to change dollars are young and old, Chinese as well as foreign. "Since a renminbi appreciation is possible," Ms. Liu says, "they feel they can't lose."
美元光环在中国褪色
午饭时间，上海市区中国银行(Bank of China)门前到处是人，他们不久前还一直往帐户里存美元，现在却急著要把美元换成人民币。
排在252号的袁满为了圆儿子去美国读书的梦想，存了5万多美元，现在他后悔自己为什么不存坚挺一些的欧元。Ron Chen是澳大利亚人，在一家制药公司做管理，每个月的美元薪水入帐后他就马上把钱换成人民币。一位中年妇女和她的母亲坐在一旁等待海外汇款，她们也打算当天就把美元换成人民币。
“美元现在不值钱了”，不愿意透露全名的葛（音译）女士说。
从黑市交易者到焦急的老太太，中国人开始对美元有清醒的认识。当美元在国际汇市下跌而中国政府又想保持住人民币钉住美元汇率的时候，来自国人的美元抛盘无疑给北京方面带来麻烦。
这还显示出一种令人惊讶的转变：很多中国人开始将人民币视为更安全的保值货币。这有可能会给处于下降趋势的美元造成灾难性影响。
“美元贬值了！人民币现在是硬通货了！”一位40岁的中年男人大声说。他刚刚套现了价值1万美元的美元计价股票投资，然后将钱全都换成人民币。“这是最好的选择”，他说。
今年53岁的袁先生也挤在中国银行大厅里的等候人群中，他对人民币可能升值非常担心。他有一家自己的小型贸易公司，他建议自己的客户持有人民币，而不是美元。但是，由于儿子急于去美国留学，他自己却没有把美元换成人民币。
“应当要求美国政府保持美元汇率的稳定”，袁先生说。
美国政府虽然口头上支持“强势美元”，但其实却千方百计劝中国政府放松对人民币汇率的控制，如此人民币就会和其他主要货币一样兑美元升值。
美国的经常帐户赤字使得美元不断流向其他国家，后者再用这些美元来购买美国国债、公司股票和债券等美元资产。很多经济学家和货币交易员认为，外国方面对持有美元计价资产的胃口正在开始减退，因此美元近期开始持续走软。
中国央行周三推出鼓励境内居民持有美元的新政策。中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)决定自11月18日起上调帐户额低于300万美元的小额美元外币存款利率。中国人民银行网站声明称，一年期美元小额存款利率从0.5625%上调至0.8750%，缩小了与不久前刚刚上调过的人民币存款利率的差距。此外，中央银行还建议商业银行设定两年期外币存款利率上限。
在此之前，中国央行刚在10月下旬进行了9年来首次加息，显示出中国逐渐开始采用市场化的手段来控制资本流动。不过，北京方面还依赖其他手段吸收美元，缓解人民币升值压力。国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange, SAFE)的一份内部报告显示，中国央行忙于应付境内居民的美元兑换要求，今年上半年，已经兑换了200亿美元。
在银行系统之外，人民币也是抢手货。今年35岁、在上海从事黑市交易的陆先生说，美元兑换人民币的交易量很大。他以前的客户都是需要美元的人，主要有三类：要去国外旅行的、要给在海外读书的孩子付学费的和那些要从海外走私货物到中国的人。但是，随著美元的贬值，需求发生了逆转，他的客户范围也变广。大约从今年春天开始，他说，他的客户要求换汇的金额增大了，有1万美元、10万美元，甚至还有20万到30万美元。
由于陆先生和他的同伴现在很难卖出美元，他们提出的兑换汇率已经低于银行人民币汇率报价。但他们生意并没有因此缩减，“总有人来找我们”，陆先生说，“他们只要人民币”。
流入中国的“热钱”，即投机资本，也对人民币汇率造成压力。即使是从合法渠道涌入的大量资本也显示出大量资金在人民币的升值预期下迅速回流到中国。今年上半年，中国的证券组合及其他流入资本达到363亿美元，较上年同期增长了107%。截至9月底，中国的外汇储备已经达到5,145.4亿美元，大约每个月增长120亿美元。
中国监管官员在本月于上海召开的一次小范围闭门会议上表达了对目前状况的担忧。此次会议的一份纪要显示，中国人民银行广州市分行副行长王自力在会上表示，“人民币汇率承受巨大升值压力。外汇储备迅速增长。由于存在强烈的（人民币）升值预期，大量海外资金通过黑市交易、地下钱庄等途径流入中国。”
自1994年以来，人民币兑美元汇率就始终被严格控制在1美元兑人民币8.277元左右。中国央行高层官员谈到这个问题总是说要保持汇率“稳定”，暗示任何扩大人民币交易区间的措施都将会慢慢地、逐渐地进行。
尽管面临这些新的压力，但中国的资本管制使其外汇监管部门拥有有力的行政工具。企业必须登记购买或卖出人民币 -- 并且只适用于商品和服务贸易。居民个人每天至多可以买卖1万美元，买卖更大金额的美元需要特殊的批示。
与此同时，中国政府也在小幅放松汇率制度。中国央行周三宣布允许移居海外的中国居民向海外转移合法资产；国家外汇管理局也提高了海外留学人员的购汇限额。
中国不愿意让人民币升值的原因之一可能是，其正在摸索适当的调整方式。国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)11月份公布的报告显示，尽管该组织认为更加灵活的汇率有利于中国更好的施展货币政策，但其并不认为人民币被“严重低估”。
华盛顿国际经济研究所(Institute for International
Economics)资深人士尼古拉斯?拉迪(Nicholas R. Lardy)表示，中国可能还会担心其持有的大量美元资产价值发生变化。“也许中国央行关心的并不仅仅是短期的问题，还有人民币升值对官方外汇储备价值的负面影响”。
回到中国银行的分行，时间已经是下午了，来换汇的人丝毫没有减少的迹象。每天都一样，这家分行的副经理刘红丽（音译）说。来银行换汇的人形形色色，老的小的，中国人外国人。“自从人民币可能升值以来”，她说，“人们就都想著不能让自己的钱有闪失”。
