Car Companies Jockey for Slice Of China Market
Despite official efforts to ease China's blistering expansion, foreign auto makers are investing billions of dollars in new factory production in a race for a slice of the world's fastest-growing major auto market.
The Chinese government has been taking steps to cool the country's overheated economy in various sectors, including auto manufacturing. With projected car-making capacity scheduled to outstrip demand by the middle of the decade, auto companies ranging from Volkswagen AG to General Motors Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. are effectively gambling that Beijing can engineer a soft landing.
At the same time, the auto makers' additional investments are complicating Beijing's efforts to cool its economy, which include steps to tighten investment and credit. By pumping out more and more vehicles, the companies are stoking Chinese consumers' infatuation with the automobile. But with so much at stake for China in terms of jobs related to the burgeoning auto industry, the government is treading a fine line between trying to streamline growth and not clamping down too hard. Getting the car business right could be critical to China's overall efforts to get its economy right in the next few years.
Already, the pace of growth in overall vehicle sales is cooling rapidly. Total sales grew 36% last year to about 4.5 million vehicles -- still steamy, but down from an estimated 80% growth pace in 2002.
Gluts have proved inevitable in a range of other Chinese industries, from washing machines to mobile phones, and price wars have bloodied foreign and Chinese competitors.
Major auto makers, however, show no signs of slowing their expansion plans in China, and indeed some big players are accelerating their China strategies. China is the world's third-largest auto market after Japan and the U.S. By 2025, GM expects China could overtake the U.S. as the world's largest car market.
CAR WARS
Car makers have been rushing to build plants in China. See a timeline illustrating the boom.
Detroit-based GM, the world's No. 1 auto maker, announced Monday that its array of Chinese ventures will invest more than $3 billion over the next three years to more than double capacity to 1.3 million vehicles, about 435,000 vehicles more than the company indicated in statements last year, said GM China Chairman Phil Murtaugh. GM also detailed plans to launch its Cadillac brand in China. (See related article)
"It's only going to be a matter of time before 1.3 million isn't enough," Mr. Murtaugh said. GM's goal, he said, is eventually to take leadership in China from Volkswagen, which has been in China since the mid-1980s and claims one-third of the China passenger-car market. VW will fight back hard, having previously announced its own $7 billion factory expansion.
The frenzied auto buying reflects monumental change unfolding in China's cities. The average resident earns a little more than $1,000 a year, but the country is quickly developing an upper class that splashes out for Mercedes or BMWs and a middle class able to save for a VW Santana under $10,000.
Industry executives are starting to predict that the jostling among the big global car makers in China's crowded market will precipitate a shakeout, driving consolidation among smaller players and winnowing out the less competitive.
"A China shock could be a very good opportunity for healthy players in the long term," says Koo Young Key, general manager of the China team at Hyundai Motor. The South Korean company, looking to China to help it vault into the ranks of the world's biggest auto makers, recently expanded capacity at a joint venture with Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co. that manufactures passenger vehicles, namely the Sonata. By 2010, Hyundai and its sister firm, Kia Motors Corp., want to sell one million vehicles a year in China and hope to capture a 20% market share -- more than double GM's share in the country now.
The jockeying also is intense among companies that have come late to China. On Saturday, Italian sports-car maker Ferrari-Maserati Group, a unit of Fiat SpA, attracted hundreds of people to watch a parade of its models through downtown Shanghai, and toasted the opening of a showroom at a crowded reception. Ford Motor Co., a latecomer to China, is looking to expand its offerings in China, potentially adding its Volvo brand to its Ford-brand offerings. Germany's DaimlerChrysler AG is looking to broaden its foothold in the car and commercial-vehicle markets.
Altogether, auto makers are planning to boost capacity in China to about seven million passenger cars a year by 2009. But sales of passenger cars, excluding commercial vehicles, will likely increase to about 5.2 million vehicles annually, says Yale Zhang, director of emerging-markets forecasting for CSM Worldwide, a consulting firm. "The gap is there," Mr. Zhang said.
That gap is raising doubts as to whether car makers can smoothly downshift if the economy begins to slow. At the end of April, China's 13 biggest car makers were sitting on unsold stock valued at about 14.2 billion yuan, or about ($1.72 billion), a 28% jump from a year earlier, according to figures from the State Council.
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Mr. Murtaugh dismissed concerns that the auto industry is heading for trouble. During a presentation to reporters in advance of the Beijing Motor Show, he forecast that by next year, China could displace Japan as the No. 2 vehicle market in the world. Assuming the car market settles at an 8% annual growth rate after 2005 -- essentially matching forecast gross-domestic-product growth -- Mr. Murtaugh projected that auto makers will sell 10 million vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, in China by the end of the decade.
Meanwhile, China is torn between grappling with ways to cool its economy -- including trying to streamline the auto sector -- and not quashing an industry that has become fundamental to that economy. For every job created in China's auto sector, seven more appeared elsewhere in the economy, according to a study by the Development Research Center. The think tank under China's State Council, or cabinet, also found that China's auto industry accounted for about 1.5 percentage points of growth last year when China's economy expanded by more than 9%.
"You can see the government won't curb the auto sector because car consumption can be so effective in stimulating the economy," says CSM Worldwide's Mr. Zhang. "Provinces aren't putting up new barriers to the industry; they are eliminating them."
This month, China's State Council announced an auto policy aimed at shrinking an industry with 120 or so auto factories. The policy will impose investment and approval requirements and take other steps to buttress the biggest state-run companies.
The reaction among auto makers to the new policy has been cautious, but mostly positive. Likewise, it appears that car makers are prepared to risk some short-term bumps in order to capitalize on what they see as China's enormous long-term potential.
车商增产加大中国经济降温难度
外国汽车制造商正在提高在华企业的产能，为中国的汽车热推波助澜。但此举同时也给中国政府治理经济过热的努力增加了难度。
尽管中国政府希望通过紧缩投资和信贷的手段遏制汽车等行业的过热发展，但跨国汽车制造商仍然争先恐后地斥巨资在中国建厂，以求能在中国这个全球发展最快的重要汽车市场中占有一席之地。
与去年36%的增速相比，中国的汽车销售增长势头已经明显减弱。但汽车产业同就业状况息息相关，因此中国政府将在放缓汽车工业增长的同时尽力避免对其造成过重打击。由于牵涉到大量的就业机会和数十亿美元的投资，中国汽车业能否走上正轨是今后几年里中国能否推动经济健康发展的关键所在。
与此同时，汽车制造商们预计到2005年中国的汽车产量将超过需求。他们赌定，中国经济能够实现软著陆，经济年增长率仍可以达到8%。
不过，中国汽车产业增长放缓对全球经济来说可能是一个福音。中国的需求是原油价格飙升的一大推动力，轿车保有量的爆炸式增长又推动了中国原油需求的增长。如果中国汽车业增长放缓，可能会缓解油价的上涨压力。
事实证明，从洗衣机到移动电话等中国的诸多行业都无一幸免地出现了供大于求的现象。原因之一便是外资涌入带动了中国市场飞速发展。以移动电话产业为例，到今年年底时，平均每4个中国人就拥有1部移动电话。中外厂商为了争夺市场大打价格战。不过，汽车巨头们似乎无意放缓在中国的扩张计划，有几家大型汽车生产商正在加速实施它们的中国战略。中国目前是排名仅次于美国和日本的全球第三大汽车市场。通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)预计，到2025年时，中国市场有望超越美国成为全球最大的汽车市场。
全球最大的汽车制造商通用汽车昨日宣布，今后3年将向在华的合资企业投资超过30亿美元，把在华的总产量提高一倍以上，至130万辆。通用汽车中国公司董事长墨斐(Phil Murtaugh)称，这个数字比去年的计划要高出约43.5万辆。
墨斐称，即便是增产至130万辆，早晚也会不够满足市场需求的。墨斐称，通用汽车的终极目标是从声称占有中国三分之一轿车市场的德国制造商大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)手中夺得中国市场霸主的桂冠。面对其他厂商的挑战，大众汽车也不甘示弱，已经宣布了扩大在华企业产量的计划。
汽车业管理人士预计，全球汽车巨头们在中国市场的竞争将促进业内的优胜劣汰，推动小型企业的整合。
现代汽车(Hyundai Motor Co.)中国区总经理Koo Young Key表示，中国汽车业的整合从长远来讲将非常有利于那些实力雄厚的企业的发展。现代汽车希望借助在中国市场的发展跻身于全球最大汽车制造商之列。
该公司近期宣布，将扩大其在华合资企业的产量，这家合资企业生产索娜塔(Sonata)轿车系列。现代汽车及其姊妹公司起亚汽车公司(Kia Motors Corp.)希望到2010年两家公司在华的年销量能够达到100万辆，市场占有率达到20%，这个数字比通用汽车目前在华的市场占有率高出了1倍多。
那些进入中国市场较晚的汽车制造商彼此之间也展开了激烈竞争。上周六，意大利跑车制造商Ferrari-Maserati Group的车队浩浩荡荡地穿过上海城区，为其展厅的开幕式助兴，吸引了成百上千人前来观看。进入中国市场较晚的福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)打算把沃尔沃(Volvo)投放到中国市场上。德国的戴姆勒克莱斯勒(DaimlerChrysler AG)也准备提高其在中国轿车和商用车市场上的地位。
综上所述，汽车制造商们计划到2009年把在华客车的年产量提高至约700万辆。但咨询公司CSM Worldwide的新兴市场总监张豫(Yale Zhang)表示，不包括商用车在内的客车年销量可能只会增加约520万辆，显然会出现供大于求的现象。
产能过剩使得人们担心轿车制造商们在面对中国经济放缓时能否顺利度过难关。据国务院(State Council)的数据显示，截至今年4月底，中国13家最大的汽车制造商库存额约为人民币142亿元（约合17亿美元），比上年同期增加了28%。上周，国有媒体新华社进行的一项调查显示，5月份中国汽车销量比4月份下滑了20%，与过去3年来折合成年率为50%的增速相比可谓是天壤之别。中国国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)产业政策部门的一位官员表示，无法证实新华社公布的5月份汽车销量数字是否准确，也不愿对汽车市场是否出现调整发表评论。
通用汽车的墨斐昨日表示，中国5月份汽车销量比上年同期增长了10%，增速有所放缓。这个数字反映出信贷前景的不明朗以及消费人气的不稳定给市场带来的冲击。消费者们担心短期内汽车价格将进一步下滑。
但墨斐对认为中国的汽车产业将步入困境的说法不屑一顾。在参加北京车展之前举行的记者会上，墨斐预计明年中国就会取代日本成为全球第二大汽车市场。他认为2005年后，中国的汽车市场每年将以8%（和对中国GDP的增速大体一致）的速度增长。到2010年，汽车制造商在华的汽车销量将达到1,000万辆。他补充说，通用汽车的这个预期还是保守估计。
汽车业的一些管理人士表示，收紧银根的措施是必要的，因为这样才能消除汽车市场上的泡沫。广州本田汽车有限公司(Guangzhou Honda Automobile Co.)总经理峰川尚(Sho Minekawa)表示，中国汽车市场的增速正在放缓，回归到正常水平。他说，中国正逐步向北美、欧洲、日本等成熟市场靠拢。
与此同时，中国政府正在小心谨慎地寻找平衡点，一方面要限制汽车等多个产业的过热发展以使经济降温，另一方面也要避免给已成为中国经济支柱产业的汽车业带来毁灭性打击。国务院发展研究中心(evelopment Research Center)的研究显示，中国汽车产业每创造出1个就业机会，就能催生出其他产业7个就业机会；另外，中国汽车业产值为去年中国经济增长贡献了约1.5个百分点。张豫表示，中国政府不会限制汽车产业的发展，因为轿车消费在拉动经济增长方面颇有成效。
轿车产能的扩张将使中国业已显现的一些问题更加突出。例如，汽车需求导致中国对钢铁、橡胶的进口增加，进而在全球范围内推高了这些商品和其他原材料的价格。新车进入普通家庭还导致道路拥堵，空气污染更加严重，也推动中国去年石油进口量创下历史新高。
中国政府为解决上述问题推出了一些新政策。本月，中国国务院宣布了一项汽车产业政策，旨在把整个行业整合为约120家大型汽车企业。这项政策在对投资和立项加以严格限制的同时还制定了支持大型国有企业的其他措施。中国政府还在考虑为新车制定节能标准，并要求汽车厂商把能耗节省水平在2003年的基础上提高15%。
汽车制造商们对这项产业政策的态度比较谨慎，但大多比较乐观。看来，它们已经做好了短期或许受挫的准备，因为它们看重的不是一时之长短，而是中国市场巨大的长期增长潜力。
