As Asian Stock Markets Fall, Buying Opportunities Emerge
- Asia's stock markets have fallen over the past couple of months despite the kind of real-world data that usually bolsters the bulls. For those with a long-term view, there may be opportunity amid the pessimism.
At the same time that markets have been falling, countries around the region have been raising their forecasts for this year's growth, and many companies have reported rising profits.
Growth is picking up in Japan, which just experienced the fastest consecutive two quarters of growth since the boom days of the 1980s. Southeast Asian countries have been upgrading their forecasts as growth could top 7% in Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia this year. China is growing too fast, according to the government and many economists outside the country.
Meanwhile, profits of top sectors and companies have been rising. Japanese banks appear to have turned the corner, with most reporting solid profits for the year ended March 31. Electronics companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. have reported strong profit growth. Most companies in the region expect the good times to continue for the rest of this year at least. Indeed, with global growth widely expected to rise sharply in 2004, it isn't difficult to see why companies are so optimistic.
But between April 1 and Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average was down more than 3%, Korea's Kospi index dropped 7.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell about 4.5%, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand's benchmark index declined about 5%.
One big factor weighing on prices, according to companies that monitor fund flows, is that foreigners have been fleeing Asian markets. EmergingPortfolio.com Fund Research said it expects May to have seen the largest one-month outflow from non-Japan Asian funds since it started monitoring them in 2000. The situation is similar for Japan.
Three main concerns underlie the pessimism infecting Asian stocks: economic uncertainty in China, where authorities are attempting to negotiate a soft landing following a boom; high oil prices; and the threat of rising global interest rates, especially in the U.S.
Of the three, rising interest rates have the biggest effect on the sentiment of foreign investors, and therefore, most likely are to blame for heavy selling of Asian stocks. Higher interest rates breed greater aversion to risk. When rates are low and money is cheap, global investors are willing to take on the higher risk they associate with investing in Asian markets. When rates rise, and money gets more expensive, their appetite for risk falls.
But are they making a mistake about the risk inherent in Asian investments? Many foreign investors treat Asia as a place for short-term bets that depend on global growth and risk cycles. The fact that they are bailing out suggests that many of them doubt Asia has changed much since its 1997-98 financial crisis, when a sudden exodus of investment flows caused regional markets to tank.
However, foreign investors don't always get it right. The last time they bailed out in force was during last year's panic over the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, which produced what turned out to be one of the best buying opportunities in Asia in recent years. Markets plunged during the crisis but rebounded soon after it passed and didn't look back -- until the recent selloff.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell about 8% during March and April last year as SARS fears infected the markets. The Nikkei 225 fell more than 6% during the same period. But in the 12 months that began in April 2003, the Hang Seng gained more than 37%, and the Nikkei rose more than 50%.
The quick rebound from SARS shows how "Asian markets are better equipped to deal with shocks" than they ever have been, said Frederick Ma, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services. Mr. Ma was speaking to a seminar on Asian financial markets organized by the Conference Board, a U.S. business think tank, in Singapore last week.
Seminar participants nearly were unanimous in their view that Asia has become a much more stable region in which to invest since the financial crisis, with better companies, stronger regulators and a wider base of investors.
If that is the case, the recent selloff could provide an opportunity for those with a stomach for risk to buy shares abandoned by overly cautious foreign investors.
"Every time there is short-term volatility, opportunities are brought forth," said Quah Wee Ghee, director of equities investments for the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., who attended the seminar. "If you are looking at investing on a multiyear time horizon, rather than just six months or one year ... then a lot of this [recent volatility] becomes noise," said Mr. Quah, in rare public comments from an official of the body that invests Singapore's foreign reserves.
He said the group, which invests more than $100 billion in equities, debt, real estate and other assets around the world, remains overweight in Asia. In Mr. Quah's view, Asia is slated to be the world's fastest-growing region during the next three to five years, and "we don't see a big calamity that will derail it."
Mr. Quah cautioned that markets may remain volatile for a while, and investors should be wary of standing in front "of a tide that is rising in front of you." But with global growth picking up, "the opportunities in Asia on average are better than in other parts of the world," he said.
There is little doubt that investors take on more risk by investing in Asia. But they also are compensated for the risk that comes from relatively poor corporate governance and an immature regulatory environment in parts of the region. On average, Asian stocks are much less expensive than their counterparts in Western markets. Samsung, for example, trades at about eight times its projected per-share earnings for this year. That compares with a forward price-earnings ratio of about 32 for Intel Corp., which competes with the South Korean giant in the computer-chip business, and about 36 for Motorola Inc., which competes with Samsung in cellphones and other consumer electronics.
Asian governments and regulators are working hard to bring market standards up to the level of those in the West. As they do so, the premium paid for lagging behind, in the form of lower stock prices, should disappear.
Weijian Shan, co-managing partner of Newbridge Capital Ltd., had a simple answer when asked at last week's Singapore seminar whether it is time to buy or sell in Asia. There are only two types of investors, he said: smart ones and dumb ones. "Dumb investors go with the flow, smart ones don't."
股市下挫提供买进良机
过去2个月来，尽管宏观经济数据向好，但亚洲各地的股票市场纷纷下跌。不过，对于长线投资者来说，阴影笼罩下的亚洲股票市场可能倒是为他们提供了大好的投资机会。
就在亚洲市场持续下跌之际，亚洲各国却普遍上调了今年的经济增长预期，许多公司也公布盈利有所增加。
例如，日本经济正在加速增长，此前2个季度的经济增长率接连创下上个世纪80年代以来的新高。东南亚国家纷纷上调本国今年的经济增长预期。泰国、新加坡和马来西亚都把今年的经济增长预期上调至超过7%。中国经济增长的步伐就更快了，中国政府、就连许多国外的经济学家都这样认为。
与此同时，顶尖行业及企业的盈利也在不断增长。日本的银行业看起来已经走出困境，大多数银行都在上个财政年度获得了稳固的盈利。台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)和韩国的三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)等电子企业均公布利润强劲增长。亚洲地区的大多数企业都预计，至少到年底之前他们都会保持良好的经营状况。的确，人们普遍预计全球经济将在2004年快速增长，亚洲的这些公司如此乐观也自然是在情理之中。
可是，从4月1日到上周五这段时间内，亚洲股市纷纷下挫：日经指数跌幅超过3%，韩国综合指数下跌7.5%，香港恒生指数下跌了约4.5%，泰国证交所指数的跌幅约为5%。
据追踪资金流动的公司透露，造成亚洲股市普遍下挫的重要原因之一便是外国投资者不断撤资。EmergingPortfolio.com Fund Research预计，外国投资者5月份从不含日本在内的亚洲基金中撤资的幅度为该公司自2000年开始分析资金流动以来规模最大的一次。对于日本的情况也大致相同。
投资者对亚洲股市持悲观观点是出于三个担心：一、中国经济前景不明，中国政府正在试图实现经济软著陆；二、油价高企；三、全球利率普遍有升高的趋势，美国的加息趋势尤为明显。
加息担忧是其中对外国投资者人气影响最大的因素，也是亚洲股市遭到沉重打击的罪魁祸首。而利率升高会引发避险意识的高涨。当利率在低位徘徊时，资本成本低廉，全球投资者在投资亚洲股市时愿意承受较高的风险。但利率升高时，资本成本会随之上升，全球投资者追逐风险的意愿也会下降。
但他们是不是对亚洲市场的内在风险做出了错误的判断呢？许多外国投资者把亚洲股市视为一个短线投资场所，根据全球经济增长以及风险周期进行投资。外国投资者现在纷纷撤资表明许多人仍然认为自1997年-1998年亚洲金融危机以来，亚洲经济的状况并未得到显著改善。当亚洲金融危机爆发时，大批投资突然外逃，引发了亚洲股市的暴跌。
不过，这些外国投资者也并不总能押中。例如，去年亚洲地区爆发非典型肺炎(SARS)期间，亚洲股市大幅下挫，外国投资也大规模撤离，但后来事实证明这是近几年来难得一见的买进机会。SARS过后，亚洲股市迅即反弹并且一路上行，直到近期遭到抛售后才有回调的趋势。
去年3月至4月SARS肆虐期间，香港的恒生指数大幅下挫了约8%，日经指数跌幅超过6%。但2003年4月以后的12个月以来，恒生指数涨幅超过37%，日经指数涨幅更是令人瞠目结舌，超过了50%。
香港财经事务及库务局局长马时亨(Frederick Ma)在出席世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)举办的论坛上表示，在度过SARS危机之后能够迅速反弹说明亚洲股市已然今非昔比；在应对突如其来的打击时，亚洲股市比以前更加从容自如。
出席论坛的人士普遍认为，自亚洲金融危机以来，随著企业业绩的增长、监管水平的提高、以及投资群体的扩大，亚洲股市在稳定性方面取得了长足的进步。
如果上述观点正确的话，那么亚洲股市近期遭到抛售将为那些喜欢冒险的投资者提供一个买进的大好时机，他们将进场逢低吸纳被过度谨慎的外国投资者所抛弃的那些股票。
新加坡政府投资公司(Government of Singapore Investment Corp.)的股票投资主管Quah Wee Ghee表示，每当亚洲股市出现短期波动时，投资机会就随之显现；如果投资者从长线投资的角度来考虑，那么近期抛售亚洲股票的风潮将只不过是一时喧嚣而已。
他说，新加坡政府投资公司的投资额超过1,000亿美元，其投资分散在亚洲为主的全球各地股市、债市、房地产市场和其他市场。在他看来，今后3到5年内，亚洲将是全球经济增长最快的地区，不会出现能够破坏本地经济增长的灾难性事件。
但他警告说，市场可能会在一段时间内起伏不定，投资者在面对市场的风起云涌最好慎重行事。但随著全球经济的加速增长，亚洲股市的平均回报率要好于全球的其他地区。
毫无疑问，投资亚洲股市会承担更大的风险，但高风险也意味著高回报。亚洲股市的风险来自相对松散的公司治理，以及部分国家监管环境不够成熟。总的来说，亚洲股票的价格比西方国家的同行要便宜得多。例如，以今年的每股预期收益计算，三星电子的本益比在8倍左右，而同样涉足电脑晶片行业的英特尔(Intel Corp.)的预期本益比却高达32倍，而与三星在手机和电子消费品行业展开竞争的摩托罗拉(Motorola)的预期本益比约为36倍。
亚洲各国政府及监管机构正在付出艰辛的努力，促使本国的市场标准同西方国家接轨。一旦他们做到这一点，亚洲股市相对低廉的股价也会向西方国家靠拢。
新桥资本(Newbridge Capital)的单伟建同样出席了上周的论坛。当他被问及眼下应该是买进还是卖出亚洲股票时，他表示世界上只有两种投资者──聪明的和愚蠢的。前者只能随波逐流，但后者却能够独树一帜。
