China Aims Squeeze on Credit At Asset Bubbles in Hot Sectors
Senior Chinese economic officials said the government's squeeze on credit won't induce a hard landing for the economy but instead is designed to shrink asset bubbles in troubled sectors.
The governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, and other officials said there are signs that recent policy measures are having an effect on restraining runaway investment and slowing rapid growth while inflation remains under control. Speaking at a forum on China's economy Friday, Mr. Zhou used the example of Japan's decade-long malaise, induced by an asset bubble, to justify the government's decision to tighten credit.
"Usually people pay most attention to asset bubbles in the stock market and property market, but this might not be the case in China," Mr. Zhou said. "China's asset bubble may lie in the manufacturing sector and other raw-material processing sectors where we see oversupply."
The comments at the forum inside Beijing's Great Hall of the People underscore the delicate balancing act Chinese leaders are attempting: maintaining fast economic growth to generate jobs and returns for investors while keeping the momentum from spinning out of control. As a sign of their caution, the officials said an increase in interest rates -- potentially the first in nearly nine years -- is being held in reserve. "If the monetary policy produces results fairly slowly, if the situation continues to unfold, we may need to adopt more vigorous efforts with regard to macroeconomic controls," said Vice Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei.
China's central bank adopted a tighter monetary policy late in the third quarter of 2003 and then stepped up efforts this year, primarily by gradually raising the reserve requirements for banks. Bank of America analyst Sameer Goel said Mr. Lou's remarks indicate that the current credit policy will be sustained even if the vice minister suggested that the overheating hasn't been fully addressed.
"This can be interpreted as a signal that the [central bank's] relatively dovish statements of late won't necessarily be overridden," Mr. Goel said.
National Bureau of Statistics Director Li Deshui appeared to caution against blunt measures such as interest-rate increases to tackle what is primarily a few hot industries luring too much money.
"China's economy hasn't shown an overall heating, and therefore we don't need and shouldn't implement an overall tightening policy," Mr. Li told the forum. He said China's already-implemented monetary-policy measures are "appropriate and well-timed" and that as they take effect, economic growth will slowly stabilize during the second half.
China's chief statistician also was unfazed by rising inflation, telling reporters he doesn't think the rise in China's consumer prices will necessarily exceed an annual rate of 5% in May. That level has been singled out as a danger point for China's interest-rate policy, as inflation creeps closer to the prevailing one-year loan rate of 5.31% set by the central bank.
Not everyone shares the official confidence that a mix of administrative directives to local authorities to curtail investment and higher bank-reserve rates will do the trick.
Goldman Sachs Managing Director Fred Hu said China should pursue steps using more market-based, indirect macroeconomic controls.
"The People's Bank of China should raise the interest rate by [two to three percentage points] in the next 12 to 18 months," Mr. Hu told the forum. "Due to higher inflationary expectations, only by raising real interest rates can we really curb investment demand."
However, Mr. Li said inflation remains under control despite hitting 3.8% year-to-year in April, a seven-year high. "As long as macroeconomic control measures are well implemented we can prevent inflation, which is currently still within the controllable range," he said.
Investment and lending growth helped China's economy expand 9.8% year-to-year in the first quarter, nearly the same pace as a 9.9% annual growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2003.
In a quarterly report issued Friday, the Ministry of Commerce predicted China's economy will grow by more than 9% year-to-year in the first half of this year.
Mirroring the predictions of China's chief statistician, the ministry report forecasts that GDP growth in the second half will be slightly slower than in the first half of 2004.
中国竭力避免重蹈日本覆辙
几位中国政府高级官员上周五纷纷发表讲话，试图缓解人们对信贷过度收紧可能会导致中国经济硬著陆的担忧。
中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)行长周小川和其他几位官员表示，有迹象表明，央行遏制经济过热的几项政策措施已见成效，通货膨胀目前已得到控制。
负责金融事务的官员以及统计部门和央行的官员在日前召开的一次高层金融论坛上发表讲话，称中国政府为控制投资猛增而采取了适当、及时和有效的措施。
央行行长周小川以日本因资产泡沫破裂而导致长达十年的经济衰退为例，来说明中国政府的调控措施是合理的。 这次金融论坛在人民大会堂(Great Hall of the People)举办，会期三天。周小川在第二天的会议上发表讲话称， 通常人们最关注的是股市和地产市场的资产泡沫，但中国目前的投资情况可能并不是这样。
他认为，中国的资产泡沫可能潜伏于制造业和其他原材料加工等供应过剩的行业。
但中国政府目前不会通过加息来戳破这些泡沫。他们暂时不会加息，而是要先评估一下显示现行措施效果的指标。
政府高官表示，已有迹象显示政策正在收效。
暂不会加息
央行从2003年第三季度末开始收紧货币政策，以提高商业银行准备金率为主要手段，今年以来更是步步加紧。
财政部(Ministry of Finance)副部长楼继伟在论坛上表示，这并不表示政府不会采取进一步的控制经济过热的措施。
他说，如果货币政策收效过慢，或形势继续恶化，政府就可能采取更有力的宏观调控措施。
美国银行(Bank of America)分析师山莫尔?戈埃尔(Sameer Goel)认为，楼继伟的讲话虽然暗示经济过热的势头还没有被完全遏制，但他对目前的信贷政策持支持态度。
戈埃尔说，人们可以就此得出结论，央行最近相对温和的言论可能并没有被忽视。
国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)局长李德水对采取加息等大力度措施遏制少数几个行业的投资过热势头似乎也表示谨慎。
他在此次金融论坛上表示，中国经济并未全面过热，因此也无需实施全面紧缩政策。
他认为，中国已经执行的几项货币政策是"适当和及时"的。
他说，这些措施力度很大，效果正在逐步显现。他指出，2003年第二季度受非典型肺炎(SARS)冲击，中国经济放缓，所以今年第二季度的经济增幅可能还会相对偏高。
他说，随著政府的宏观调控措施逐步收效，今年下半年的经济增势会逐步稳定下来。
他还表示，通货膨胀率上升并不令人担忧。他对记者表示，预计今年5月份中国的消费者价格指数不太可能会超过5%。
这与央行设定的5.31%的1年期贷款利率非常接近，因此已经有人提出消费者价格指数增长5%是央行可能加息的触发点。
通货膨胀仍在控制之中
但并非人人都像他们这样充满信心。各级地方政府对于控制投资各有不同的政策目标，而提高准备金率也不一定就能成功。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)董事总经理胡祖六(Fred Hu)认为，中国人应该采取更多市场化的间接的宏观调控措施。
他在论坛上表示，中国人民银行应在未来12-18个月内将利率上调200-300个基点。
通货膨胀预期将升高，因此只有提高实际利率才能遏制投资需求。
但他也承认，虽说中国4月份通货膨胀率升至3.8%的7年高点，但目前形势仍在掌控之中。
他说，只要能有效落实各项宏观措施，就能够阻止通货膨胀失控。
在投资和信贷猛增的推动下，今年第一季度中国经济增幅达到9.8%，与去年第四季度的9.9%不相上下。
中国商务部(Ministry of Commerce)上周五发布的一份报告预计，今年上半年中国经济增幅将超过9%。它还预计，今年下半年国内生产总值增势将较上半年有所放缓，这与国家统计局局长的看法不谋而合。
