Greenspan Warns About Yuan Float
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that if China were to let its currency float immediately, as many U.S. companies and politicians want, it could weaken that country's banking system and threaten the world economy.
As much as 50% of Chinese bank loans are nonperforming, Mr. Greenspan said in a letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R., Ala.). The banking system can operate that way only if depositors don't pull out their money, he said. "Many in China fear that removal of capital controls that restrict the ability of domestic investors to invest abroad and to sell or to purchase foreign currency -- which is a necessary step to allow a currency to float freely -- could cause an outflow of deposits from Chinese banks, destabilizing the system," Mr. Greenspan said.
GREENSPAN'S RESPONSE
Read the full text of Mr. Greenspan's response to questions from Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama in connection with a Feb. 12 hearing before the Senate banking committee.
China pegs the value of its currency, the yuan, to the dollar via strict controls on the ability of local and foreign investors to exchange yuan for dollars. As imports from China have surged, U.S. companies have complained that the peg has kept the yuan artificially cheap and given Chinese companies an unfair advantage in the U.S.
The Bush administration, led by Treasury Secretary John Snow, has steadily ratcheted up pressure on China to float its exchange rate, but without success. Treasury officials visited Beijing last week to advise on technical aspects of making the move.
Mr. Greenspan's letter, released by Mr. Shelby's office, responded to follow-up questions stemming from his recent appearances before Congress. Mr. Shelby had asked Mr. Greenspan to elaborate on a speech he made in Dallas in December. In it, he said China's pegged exchange rate ran the risk of fueling inflation and eventually triggering recession in that country.
His latest remarks suggested there also were risks in the other direction, and that before floating its exchange rate China should fix its banking system.
China, he said, needs to strengthen bank accounting and regulation, inject more government capital into the banks so that bad loans can be reserved against and "eliminate state interference in bank lending decisions."
To do this, bank managers "need to be given training, incentives and authority" to evaluate credit risk and make loans accordingly. He noted the Chinese government appears to be moving in this direction.
Meanwhile, China's central bank in recent weeks has quietly broadened the scope of a nearly one-year-old program designed to keep the rigid exchange-rate system from overheating the economy. Other cooling efforts have been aimed at cutting loan growth.
This year, the central bank has redoubled efforts to soak up, or "sterilize," record amounts of money supply. Data from the central bank and market participants suggest that in January and February it absorbed yuan valued at a net $13.9 billion from the banking system, more than it did in all of 2003, when about a net $9.1 billion was absorbed.
Mr. Greenspan reiterated recent comments that the dollar's weakening "has been gradual" and has had no noticeable impact either on stock and bond markets or on inflation. Still, he said that because the U.S. current-account deficit with the rest of the world is so large, foreigners may become reluctant to purchase U.S. stocks and bonds to finance it. Reducing the U.S. budget deficit would limit the risk that such a withdrawal of foreign investment "could severely crimp" business investment in the U.S.
格林斯潘对人民币自由浮动的风险提出警告
美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve , 简称Fed)主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)警告称，如果中国如美国许多人所愿立刻允许人民币汇率自由浮动，就会损害中国的银行系统，并对世界经济构成威胁。
格林斯潘在致参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)主席Richard Shelby的信中称，中国银行贷款中50%为不良贷款。他说，银行系统能够在这种情况下运行的唯一前提是存款人不提款。许多中国人担心，人民币汇率自由浮动所需的取消资本控制会引起中国的银行存款大量外流，从而动摇整个银行系统，而这将对全球经济前景构成威胁。
中国通过严格控制国内和外国投资者将人民币兑换为美元的操作来实行人民币钉住美元的汇率机制。由于中国对美国的出口飙升，美国公司指责称，此种汇率机制人为地压低了人民币币值，并使得中国公司在美国市场具备了不公平的优势。
布什(Bush)政府中以财政部长斯诺(John Snow)为首的官员们不断对中国施压，敦促中国放松对人民币汇率的控制，但至今为止徒劳无功。上周斯诺承认，这一过程需要时间。美国财政部官员上周访问了北京，就开放人民币汇率的技术层面提供了建议。
由Shelby办公室公布的格林斯潘的这封信是为了回答对他最近在国会作证的后续问题。Shelby曾要求格林斯潘就其去年12月份在达拉斯的讲话作详细阐述。当时，格林斯潘表示，中国实行的钉住美元的汇率机制有可能加速通货膨胀率的上升，并最终引发该国经济陷入衰退。
他最新的讲话指出，立刻实行人民币自由浮动也有风险，在此之前中国应当先改革银行系统。
格林斯潘认为，中国有必要加强银行会计记录和监管，政府应向银行注入更多资金以建立足够的坏帐准备金，而且应消除政府对银行贷款决定的干预。要如此操作，银行经理需得到培训、激励和权力，令其能够正确衡量信贷风险并安排贷款。他还指出，中国政府正在向此目标努力。 与此同时，中国央行近几周悄悄扩大了一项近一年前制定的计划的规模，此规模旨在防止不灵活的汇率机制导致经济过热。央行还采取了其他降温措施以降低贷款增长率。
中国央行今年加倍努力吸纳已达创纪录水平的货币供应量。来自央行和市场观察人士的数据显示，今年1、2月份央行已从银行系统净回笼了139亿美元，高于2003年91亿美元的全年净回笼总额。
格林斯潘还重申了近期的观点，即迄今为止美元一直在逐步下跌，且并未对股市、债市和通货膨胀率造成显著影响。
但他说，由于美国经常项目赤字与其他国家相比是如此之高，因此外国投资者可能会不愿购买美国股票和债券来为美国提供预算资金。降低预算赤字能限制外资撤离可能对美国商业投资造成的重创。
格林斯潘还指出，虽然美国的进口价格现在已连续数年上涨而不是下跌，但至今为止涨势是温和的。
他说，最终，美元贬值将使得外国对美国的出口减少，而美国出口增长，这将有助于控制美国的经常项目赤字。
