Amid Tech Boom, Chinese Stalwarts Scrape for Gains
While technology companies around the world are bouncing back from a protracted slump, two of China's tech stalwarts are stumbling, a sign that even the world's most-hyped economy has its limits.
During the past two weeks, Legend Group Ltd., China's largest maker of personal computers, and Ningbo Bird Co., the largest China-based maker of cellphones, both reported missing their growth targets for the final three months of 2003. Both companies are leaders in industries that many predicted would see the rise of homegrown Chinese manufacturers. By taking advantage of low labor costs, government support and direct access to Chinese consumers, these companies have been expected to dominate the domestic market and potentially use that as a springboard to international success.
Until a few months ago, evidence seemed to indicate that was happening. Domestic cellphone manufacturers, for example, rose from nowhere in 2000 to take nearly 40% of the Chinese market, the world's largest, last year. At the same time, international brands saw their grip on the country slip. Motorola Inc. held 30% of the market during 2001, but saw its share drop to less than 20% last year.
But a variety of factors are taking the luster off these new Chinese players. The heady growth in China's domestic market has begun to level off and domestic manufacturers still lag behind international players in cellphone technology. In addition, both Legend and Ningbo Bird are struggling to adapt to structural changes in the rapidly evolving Chinese market.
For the past five years, the markets for both PCs and cellphones in China were driven by ultra-fast growth from buyers who were embracing such products for the first time. But now, demand growth for both is slowing, though analysts in both industries say it will likely still outpace world demand for another year or two. As recently as 2001, PC sales growth in China was roughly 25%, according to market-research firm International Data Corp. But that slowed to about 17% last year. Replacement buyers represent a growing portion of both markets.
Meanwhile, overseas manufacturers are proving their competitive mettle in the country. In PCs, Dell Inc. of the U.S. nearly doubled its market share to 7% during the past two years while Legend's share held steady at 27%, according to IDC.
Last week, when the Beijing company reported lackluster results for its fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31, executives said they would restructure their sales operation and adopt Dell's direct-sales approach for at least part of their customer base. In coming months, Legend plans to open telephone sales centers in Shanghai and Beijing to cater to small and midsized business customers.
However, Legend is wary of upsetting its vast network of distributors and will still rely heavily on a network of distributors and retailers throughout China.
When International Business Machines Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and others began responding to Dell in the U.S. during the mid-1990s, it took them several years to find the right sales mix. Today, in the Asian-Pacific region, H-P sells about 20% of its PC products directly to customers, while Dell sells more than 95%. Still, unit shipments for both companies grew about 40% in the region last year.
Legend hasn't stated a precise target for its distribution mix, but chief financial officer Mary Ma says, "The new [direct] model definitely cannot take over all of our business." Legend's distributors are delivering products to 6,000 cities and towns, a presence that is hard to duplicate, she said.
Kirk Yang, a computer-industry analyst at Citigroup Smith Barney in Hong Kong, says if Legend can get direct sales to account for 20% of its revenue, the resulting growth could produce another four or five percentage points of market share in China. After that, he says, the company will have to begin an overseas push.
In cellphones, Bird is the leader of a pack of China's 25 cellphone manufacturers. While these manufacturers made huge gains in market share during their first two years, that growth leveled off sharply last year to just a few percentage points, according to surveys of retailers by GfK Asia.
Bird, based in the central coastal city of Ningbo, shipped 11.7 million cellphones last year, more than any other manufacturer in China. But analysts say longtime market leaders Motorola and Nokia Corp. sold more phones to customers. Many of the phones Bird shipped are still sitting in warehouses or on store shelves.
Zhao Qingong, a Bird executive, attributed the company's fourth-quarter profit decline to price cuts. But he noted Bird's full-year profit rose 14% and said the company's year-end inventory was down 11% compared to the end of 2002.
Like Legend, though, Bird may also be facing a distribution dilemma. The company and other domestic manufacturers benefited from the fact that cellphones were generally sold separately from service, allowing them to develop their own relationships with distributors and retailers. But China Mobile Communications Corp., the country's largest wireless operator, this week ordered phones from manufacturers that it will sell bundled with service plans at its stores, much in the way operators in the U.S, Europe and many other parts of Asia do.
China Mobile's first order only involved high-end models from overseas-based producers. If it adopts the bundling technique broadly, China Mobile could put itself in a stronger position to choose winners and losers among handset makers.
中国科技公司暴露增长局限
就在全球的科技公司开始走出长期衰退实现业绩复苏之时，中国两家科技巨头却步履维艰，这反映出，即便是世界上最具活力的经济体也难免存在增长局限。
在过去的两周中，中国最大的个人电脑生产商联想集团(Legend Group Ltd.)和最大的手机生产商宁波波导股份有限公司（Ningbo Bird Co. Ltd., 简称：波导股份）均宣布，2003年最后三个月没有实现各自的增长目标。这两家业内皎皎者都身处迅速发展的行业，许多人预计，这两个行业将会涌现越来越多的本土生产商。人们原先预计，借助低劳动力成本、政府支持和与国内消费者直接接触等优势，这些公司将主导国内市场，并藉此为跳板进军国际市场。
直到几个月以前，所有的迹象似乎都在证实这一点。例如，国内手机厂商在2000年还是一文不名，到了去年，它们却占领了近40%的中国市场。而与此同时，国际品牌的市场地位下降。摩托罗拉(Motorola Inc.) 2001年的市场占有率为30%，但去年降至不足20%。
然而，诸多因素正在削弱这些新兴中国企业的锋芒。中国国内市场的迅猛增长之势已渐缓，国内生产商在手机技术方面仍落后于国际同行。另外，联想集团和波导股份都在艰难应对瞬息万变的中国市场中的结构性变化。
在过去5年中，中国市场中开始使用个人电脑和手机的消费者数量急速上升，从而推动市场发展。但如今，需求增长正在减慢。不过，这两个行业的分析师都表示，一两年内国内需求的增速仍会超过全球整体水平。市场研究公司国际数据公司(International Data Corp., IDC)的资料显示，2001年，中国市场个人电脑的销售增长率约为25%，但去年降至17%。以淘汰旧品为目的的购买者在这两个市场中的比重逐渐增大。
同时，海外生产商显示了竞争实力。IDC数据显示，在个人电脑领域，美国戴尔电脑(Dell Inc.)在过去两年中的市场占有率几乎增长一倍至7%，而联想的市场占有率则稳定在27%。
上周，联想集团发布了截至12月31日第三财政季度的疲软业绩。管理人士称，他们将调整营销模式，对至少部分客户群采用戴尔的直销方式。在今后的几个月，联想集团计划在上海和北京开设电话营销中心，以适应中小企业的需求。
然而，联想集团不愿搅乱其广大的分销体系，今后仍将主要依赖于全国范围的分销商和零售商网络。
上世纪90年代中期，国际商业机器公司(International Business Machines Corp. IBM)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard)和其他公司为在美国市场应对戴尔的竞争，花了数年的时间来寻找适当的销售模式。如今，在亚太地区，惠普直接向客户销售的个人电脑产品占了总销量的20%，而戴尔的这一比例超过95%。此外，这两家公司去年的亚太地区发货量增长约40%。
联想集团没有说明其营销模式的具体目标，但财务总监马雪征(Mary Ma)表示，新的直销模式不可能涉及公司的所有业务。公司的分销商网络目前覆盖6,000个市镇，竞争者很难与之媲美。
花旗(Citigroup)旗下美邦(Smith Barney)驻香港的电脑业分析师杨应超(Kirk Yang)称，如果联想直销收入占到总收入的20%，那么由此带来的增长可能使其在国内市场的占有率提高4或5个百分点。之后，公司将要开始征战海外市场。
在手机领域，波导股份是中国25家手机生产商阵营中的领头羊。GfK Asia的零售商调查显示，虽然这些生产商在最初两年实现了市场占有率的急剧增长，但增速已经大大放慢，去年降至仅几个百分点。
波导股份去年的手机发货量为1,170万部，超过任何一家国内生产商。但是分析师称，摩托罗拉(Motorola)和诺基亚(Nokia Corp.)等长期称霸市场的公司的出货量更大。而波导股份许多已出货的手机目前还在仓库或商店货架上。
波导股份的管理人士赵勤攻将公司第四季度利润下滑归咎于产品削价。但他指出，公司全年利润增长14%，年末库存较上年同期下降11%。
不过，像联想集团一样，波导股份可能也面临分销方面的窘境。过去，手机销售与通讯服务分离的状况使该公司和其他国内生产商受益，他们能够发展与分销商和零售商的关系。然而，中国最大的无线运营商中国移动通信集团公司(China Mobile Communications Corp.)本周向生产商订购了大批手机，将在其营业厅中把手机同其服务捆绑销售，这和欧美及亚洲其他许多地区的经营方式类似。
中国移动的第一笔订单只涉及海外生产商的高端机型。如果这种捆绑销售策略推广开来，中国移动可能会左右手机生产商的成败。
