Japan's Economy Tied To China Despite Political Friction
One after another, red-hot slabs of metal emerge from the blazing maws of the furnaces at Nippon Steel Corp. (5401.TO) and are squeezed and stretched into long, thin sheets - perfect for car bodies or cell phones.
Their final destination? Increasingly, the answer is China.
Nippon Steel is one of many Japanese companies profiting from what is called "the China Boom." China has an exploding hunger for steel and construction materials, cell phones, plasma TVs and autos, and the Japanese are working overtime to fill it.
"China swallows everything," said Takashi Kanke, a Nippon Steel official who recently escorted two visitors around the sprawling works at Kimitsu, across the bay from Tokyo. The mills are churning out steel at nearly full capacity thanks to demand in China.
Driven by industrial output, export demand and investment, China's economy grew a frenetic 9.1% in 2003, the highest rate since 1997. Japanese exporters responded, boosting shipments to China by 33.2% to a record US$62.9 billion. Exports to China have more than doubled since 2000, though they still are only about half of exports to the U.S.
The emergence of the Chinese market as an engine for growth in Asia is also speeding Japan's shift of production to China. Nippon Steel agreed to a joint venture with China's top steel producer in December, Japanese brewers like Asahi (2502.TO) are muscling into the world's biggest beer market, and electronics maker Matsushita (6752.TO), whose China sales have more than tripled since 1998, recently made the country the core of its global strategy.
The Japanese - along with U.S. and European companies also making money in China - are betting the trend will continue, boosted in part by construction and other opportunities generated by the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the 2010 Shanghai World Expo. Estimates say Chinese growth will slow somewhat in 2004 - to 8% or more.
The China boom is so strong it is playing a key role in fueling Japan's recovery, a rebound many hope will finally lift the world's second-largest economy out of the humiliating slump where it has languished since the early 1990s.
Jesper Koll , chief economist for Merrill Lynch Japan, said the short-lived growth surges in Japan over the past decade have often been narrow, based on automotive sales in the U.S., for example.
"Now it's a very broad-based recovery in Japan," he said. "It's all China."
A Sense Of Unease
The rapid deepening of business ties between Asia's largest economy and its most populous nation, however profitable, does make the Japanese a little nervous.
Everyone from steel executives to the Bank of Japan is warning of potentially destabilizing inflation brought on by an overheated Chinese economy. Even those at the forefront of Japan's push into its neighbor's economy say social or political turmoil could suddenly turn the Chinese boom into a bust.
Some also worry Japan is feeding the behemoth that will one day overtake it economically and politically. Already, an increasingly confident China is chipping away at Japan's influence in the rest of Asia, and Tokyo has watched uneasily as Beijing's relations have warmed with Washington.
Political ties between Japan and China are troubled. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's repeated visits to a shrine honoring war dead - including the architects of Tokyo's invasion of China in the 1930s - have drawn protests from Beijing. The Chinese also suspect they are the target of closer military cooperation between Tokyo and Washington.
"Political relations are the biggest risk," conceded Shinji Shimahara, general secretary of the Japan-China Investment Promotion Organization. "Some people have fear, some don't - I don't know which side is right."
But Shimahara and many others involved in business with China have come to the same conclusion: Japan has no choice but to sell to China.
"Before the China risk, there is the China opportunity," said Yuki Iriyama, general manager of Nippon Steel's overseas business division. "Almost all of Japanese industry is looking at China as a prospective big market."
The steel industry illustrates both the opportunities and the risks of that market.
Chinese demand has helped boost Japanese production over the doldrums it hit in the mid-1990s and was largely credited with the 2.6% increase in Japanese steel output in 2003.
Even more important, the Chinese appetite for steel has triggered a global recovery of steel prices, allowing companies like Nippon Steel to make a bundle. For the six months ending Sept. 30, the company reported a group net profit of US$348.5 million, a comeback from the US$48.1 million loss suffered in the same period in 2002.
Company officials say direct shipments to China account for about 20% of its total exports, up to about 2 million tons a year, making it Nippon Steel's No. 1 export market. The fastest-growing component is steel sent to third countries that turn it into machines that are then sold to China. With those indirect exports included, China accounts for about 40% of Nippon Steel's overseas sales.
The trend is mirrored in other industries. At Matsushita, for example, complex parts such as semiconductors and capacitors are made in Japan, then assembled into cell phones in China.
"The really important components are being produced in Japan, and that's the way Japan has to go," said Stuart Harris, the author of "Japan and Greater China: Political Economy and Military Power in the Asian Century."
中日政治纠纷隔不断经济联系
火花四溅的钢炉张著大嘴，吐出一块又一块炙热的钢板，新日本制铁(Nippon Steel Corp., 5401.TO)的车间里一片繁忙景象。这些钢板被挤压、拉伸，变成长长薄薄的一片，正好可以用来生产汽车车身或移动电话。
这些钢片归宿何方？越来越多地，它们将被运往中国。
新日本制铁只是从所谓"中国潮"中赚取丰厚利润的众多日本企业之一。中国对钢铁、建筑材料、移动电话、等离子电视和汽车的需求与日俱增，而日本的生产厂家正在为此加班加点地生产。
新日本制铁的管理人员Takashi Kanke说，中国什么都需要。最近，他刚刚陪同两位访客参观了公司位于君津的厂房。中国市场的庞大需求促使该公司的这几家钢厂全力投入了生产。
在工业生产、出口需求和投资的推动下，中国经济飞速发展，2003年的增幅高达9.1%，是1997年以来的最高水平。日本出口商随之而动，对中国的发货量激增33.2%，达到创记录的629亿美元。从2000年以来，日本对中国的出口增长了一倍，但也只有出口美国的一半。
中国市场的蓬勃发展成为亚洲经济增长的"发动机"，也促使日本的制造业加快向中国转移。新日本制铁去年12月同意与中国一家大型钢铁生产企业合资；Asahi (2502.TO) 等日本酿酒公司正在努力拓展这个全球最大的啤酒市场；松下电器(Matsushita, 6752.TO)1998年以来的中国市场销售额也增长了两倍多，该公司最近决定将中国作为其全球业务发展战略的中心。
日本公司，与同样从中国市场获利的美国和欧洲企业一样，都看好中国经济持续发展的前景。他们的部分理由是，2008年北京奥运会(Olympics)和2010年上海世博会(World Expo)将给建筑和其他行业带来巨大商机。预计中国2004年的经济增长势头将略微放缓，增速约为8%或略高。
强劲的中国潮成为带动日本经济复苏的主要力量，许多人希望这一轮复苏能将日本这个全球第二大经济体最终拖出经济衰退的旋涡。从上个世纪九十年代初开始，日本就在经济衰退的泥潭中举步维艰。 美林日本(Merrill Lynch Japan)的首席经济师科尔(Jesper Koll)说，过去10年中，日本经济时有短期增长，但范围都很窄。例如，仅限于针对美国市场的汽车销售等。
而这一次，复苏势头波及了众多产业。他说，一切都是源于中国。
不安的感觉
日本是亚洲规模最大的经济体，而中国则以人口众多著称。二者之间的经济联系日趋紧密，虽然有利可图，但也的确让一些日本人略感担忧。
从钢铁生产企业到日本央行(Bank of Japan)，几乎每一位经济界的高级管理人士都在发出警告，称中国的经济过热可能会使通货膨胀失控。即使是那些积极推动日本企业开拓中国市场的人也表示，社会或政局动荡会使中国潮迅速消退。
一些人还担心，中国有朝一日将从经济和政治两方面取代日本的地位，而日本企业却正在为此添砖加瓦。事实上，一天比一天更自信的中国正在使日本对其他亚洲国家的影响逐步减弱，日本政府也在紧张地关注著中美关系的逐步升温。
日本和中国的政治交往障碍重重。日本首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)多次参拜靖国神社，引起中国政府的不断抗议，因为日军侵华战犯的灵位也陈列在这里。中国政府还怀疑，日美军方密切合作的目标直指中国。 日中投资促进机构(Japan-China Investment Promotion Organization)的秘书长Shinji Shimahara说，政治是最大的风险。一些人忧心忡忡，一些人其乐融融。很难说谁对谁错。
但Shimahara和其他许多与中国作生意的人都认为，除了将产品销往中国外，日本别无选择。
新日本制铁海外业务部总经理Yuki Iriyama说，在中国作生意的风险和机会并存。他说，几乎所有的日本企业都将中国看作是一个前途光明的巨大市场。
中国市场的需求帮助日本钢铁行业从九十年代中期遭受的沉重打击中恢复过来，是带动2003年日本钢铁产值增长2.6%的主要力量。 更重要的是，中国市场的巨大需求已经促使全球钢铁价格回升，像新日本制铁这样的企业从中赚取了丰厚的利润。截至9月30日的6个月期间，新日本制铁集团的净利润达到3.485亿美元，大举扭转了上年同期亏损4,810万美元的局面。
该公司管理人员称，对中国的直接出口占公司年出口总额的20%左右，约为200万吨，是新日本制铁的第一大出口市场。增长最快的业务是向第三国出口钢铁，制成机械，然后销往中国。加上这部分间接出口业务，中国市场就占到新日本制铁海外销售业务的40%左右。
其他行业的情况也与之类似。例如，松下电器就在日本生产半导体和电容器等精密部件，然后运往中国的手机装配厂。
Stuart Harris著有《日本和日益强盛的中国：亚洲世纪的政治经济体和军事力量》(Japan and Greater China: Political Economy and Military Power in the Asian Century)一书，他认为日本企业的必经之路是在国内生产真正重要的部件。
