In China, Inflation Gets a Positive Spin
A renewed government push to raise the sluggish incomes of China's huge farming population has received a short-term boost from accelerating inflation, which could help to narrow a rising income gap between urban and rural Chinese but presents a worrying trend for an economy already verging on overheating.
Prices of agricultural goods ticked up during the last quarter of 2003, reversing nearly seven years of declines and stagnation, with prices for some products rising 10% to 20%, said Chen Xiwen, a senior government official. Some analysts and consumers have complained about the resulting rise in prices for grain products, edible oils and other goods.
But Mr. Chen, deputy director of a Communist Party body that coordinates financial policies, said the price increases produced a "positive" impact on rural incomes. He also said he expects prices to climb further this year. "There's still reasonable room for more increases in prices," he said at a new conference.
So far China's inflation rate, which economists expect to reach 4% to 5% this year, isn't approaching what they say would be a dangerous level of 6% to 7%. Inflation, which averaged 1.2% last year but perked up to about 3% in November and December, has wrecked previous economic expansions over the past 20 years in China. Its re-emergence could prove troublesome for a government that doesn't want to raise interest rates, thereby attracting more funds to a banking industry that has stoked excessive investment in real estate, as well as in steel, cement and other factories.
But the unusually welcoming remarks about inflation underscore the difficulties China has faced in trying to boost rural standards of living. Since Sunday, the government has unveiled a package of initiatives aimed at the chronically listless rural sector and proclaimed in national media Monday that raising farmers' incomes is a priority for this and coming years. Central to the effort is a 25% increase in government spending -- to a historic high of $18 billion this year -- with outlays earmarked for tax reduction and elimination; education, public health and other social services; and environmental and infrastructure projects.
The program is perceived as a crucial test of credibility for the Communist leadership and necessary to preventing the countryside from becoming a drag on overall economic growth. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao came to power in late 2002 promising to bring more equitable growth to a once-egalitarian society with now-yawning divisions between well-off cities and struggling rural hinterlands. Agricultural production accounted for less than 15% of 2003's $1.4 trillion economy, though rural China is home to two-thirds of the population -- 800 million people. Incomes for rural Chinese have grown at half the rate of urban residents for the past seven years, 4% annually on average, for per-capita income of less than $320 last year.
But inflation is already providing benefits. Mr. Chen said that although rural incomes rose a typically anemic 4.3% last year, growth picked up during the second half of the year, at about the same time prices for agricultural commodities began to rise and inflation picked up. "It's a double-edged sword," said Hong Liang, China economist for Goldman Sachs Group in Hong Kong. "But at this point, they're happy to see it happen."
Ms. Hong and other economists said the government faces few good choices in reining in inflation. If it goes unchecked, ordinary Chinese could decide to spend more money, perhaps fueling more price increases. Raising interest rates, a normal response, would draw more money into Chinese banks, whose deposits are swelling in part on speculation that China will revalue its currency, which is pegged to the dollar and whose lending is contributing to the speculative bubbles.
One option for the government would be to resort to price controls on food as it has done in the past, said Ms. Hong. Mr. Chen, the government official, said most urban Chinese could afford higher food prices and suggested that increased welfare subsidies are possible for low-income urban residents.
物价上涨有利于中国农民增加收入
物价加速上涨为中国政府再度努力提高农业人口收入起到了短期促进作用，从而可能有助于缩小中国目前日益扩大的城乡居民收入差距，但对于已濒临过热边缘的中国经济而言却是一种令人担忧的趋势。
中共中央财经领导小组办公室副主任陈锡文称，2003年第四季度中国农产品价格上涨，一举扭转了将近7年来的价格下跌和停滞趋势，其中部分农产品价格涨幅为10%-20%。对于由此而引发的谷物产品、食用油和其他商品价格的上涨，一些分析师和消费者一直颇有微词。
但陈锡文表示，农产品价格上涨对于农民收入产生了“积极”的影响。他还预计今年物价还将进一步攀升。陈锡文在一次新闻发布会上称，农产品价格还有一个合理上涨的空间。
经济学家预计，中国今年的通货膨胀率将达到4%-5%。但迄今为止中国的通货膨胀率并未接近经济学家认为可能较为危险的6%-7%的水平。中国去年的平均通货膨胀率为1.2%，但去年11和12月份升至约3%。过去20年以来，通货膨胀曾经数次拖累经济发展。事实可能会证明，通货膨胀死灰复燃对于中国政府而言相当棘手。中国政府不希望加息，加息将导致银行业吸引更多资金。中国的银行体系对于房地产、钢铁、水泥和其他制造业的投资已经过度。
但中国政府官员在讲话中对于通货膨胀表示欢迎这种现象相当异乎寻常，这突出表明中国政府在力争提高农民生活水平方面面临重重困难。自上周日以来，中国政府已公布了针对长期低迷的农业领域而制定的若干政策意见。中国政府亦于周一通过官方媒体宣布，提高农民收入是今年和今后数年的工作重点。其核心就是将今年的政府支出增加25%，达到180亿美元的历史纪录。增加的政府支出将专款专用，用于税赋的减免；教育、公共卫生和其他社会服务，以及环境和基础设施工程。
人们认为，这一计划是对共产党领导层可信度的一次至关重要的检验，对于防止农村地区拖累中国总体经济增长实属必要之举。
中国国家主席胡锦涛和国务院总理温家宝在2002年末就任伊始时，曾许下实现更公平增长的诺言。对于一个曾经标榜人人平等的中国社会，其富余城市与贫困偏远内陆地区之间的经济发展差距现在却越拉越大。2003年中国经济产值达到1.4万亿美元，虽然中国农业人口有8亿之众，但农业产值所占比重尚不足15%。过去7年来中国农民收入的年平均增长率为4%，仅为城镇居民的一半，农民去年的人均收入不足320美元。
但物价上涨对于增加农民收入有利。陈锡文说，虽然农民收入去年仅增加4.3%，但农民收入增长速度在下半年加快，这与农产品价格开始上涨和通货膨胀提速差不多发生在同时。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)驻香港中国经济学家梁红说，通货膨胀是把双刃剑，但是目前看来，中国政府乐于看到物价上涨。
梁红和其他经济学家说，中国政府在控制通货膨胀方面没有什么良策。如果对通货膨胀不加抑制，中国的普通老百姓可能会作出增加支出的决定，从而也许会引发进一步的价格上涨。而加息呢，这是面对通货膨胀状况时的通常反应，则可能会更多资金流入中国的银行体系，而中国银行体系的存款已因中国将重估人民币币值的传言而日渐膨胀。
梁红说，中国政府有一种选择，就是像以往一样，采取控制食品价格的手段。陈锡文则表示，多数城市人口能够承受食品价格的上涨，他还暗示有可能增加低收入城市居民的福利补贴
