Japanese Economic Growth May Be Reliant Upon China
This year's spate of positive Japanese data has spawned a question for economists: now that Japan is growing, how dependent is it on demand from China for continued growth? And what will happen if Chinese growth slows?
Japan has now recorded seven straight quarters of economic growth, with a 0.9% quarter-to-quarter rise for the April-June period and 0.6% for July-September as the most recent gains. But those figures come with caveats.
They are for inflation-adjusted, or real, growth in gross domestic product. In the most recent quarter, nominal growth was flat. What is more, many economists think recent growth calculations were skewed by overestimating deflation, so figures for increases for real GDP are likely to have been somewhat lower than stated. Still, for a country that has spent the past decade dipping in and out of recession, this is a blistering performance.
More than this, however, Japan's concern is that little of its growth comes from domestically generated demand. Both private and government consumption were flat last quarter, while government investment dropped 3.9% from the previous quarter because of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's spending cuts.
The two main drivers of growth have been exports and private capital expenditure -- which might have been made to equip factories to produce goods for export. That makes Japan's recovery and hopes of fixing its deep structural problems vulnerable to overseas slowdowns.
Moreover, the biggest growth in exports has been in those destined for Asia, in particular China. Japan's exports to China and Hong Kong combined have surpassed those to Europe, though they still trail exports to the U.S. In the short term, the numbers showing the importance of China are dramatic. In October, exports to China and Hong Kong accounted for 63% of the year-to-year increase in exports.
At first sight, this appears to indicate that in addition to supplying goods to the world, China is acting as a demand center as its economy booms. It also raises the question of how vulnerable Japan would be to a slowdown in China's economy.
"If you say what's the difference between Euroland and Japan [over the past couple of years], the answer might be proximity to the fastest growing economy in the world," says Richard Jerram, economist at ING Financial Markets in Tokyo. But, he adds, though Japan is shipping machines to China, "we don't know whether the final demand lies in building Shanghai skyscrapers or [making] T-shirts for sale in Wal-Mart in Wichita Falls."
At a corporate level, analysts in Japan divide companies into two groups: those in sectors where the final demand comes in China, and those where it comes from abroad.
On the one hand, companies such as electronics makers use Chinese factories as a production base from which to export to other countries, so China acts as a funnel between components and equipment in Japan and final demand elsewhere. Exports by Japanese companies to their own operations in China totaled ￥855 billion ($7.81 billion) in the fiscal year that ended March 31, 2002, the most recent period for which data are available, or about 24% of the total value of Japan's exports to China, according to Morgan Stanley.
In addition to those exports, many others from Japan to China are probably components and machinery that are used to produce goods that are later exported from China. This kind of trade likely has increased since China joined the World Trade Organization two years ago, making Japan less vulnerable to a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
"Of course the state of the Chinese economy has some influence" on Japan's performance, says Osamu Tanaka, a Morgan Stanley economist. "But there are lots of mitigating circumstances."
In the event of a slowdown or significant downturn in China, the companies in Japan to watch are those producing for final demand in China, such as construction projects. Two of the biggest beneficiaries of Chinese demand have been Hitachi Construction Machinery and Komatsu, which make construction machinery such as hydraulic shovels.
About 60% of Hitachi Construction's profit comes from China, while Komatsu, which is more diversified, gets about 10% of its profit, says Graeme McDonald, an analyst at HSBC Securities. Daikin Industries, Japan's largest maker of commercial-use air conditioners, is another company with big China interests, earning about 20% of its profit there.
Many listed Japanese companies have major operations in China, but Mr. McDonald says Hitachi and Daikin are "most exposed" to how the Chinese economy fares.
日本经济增长或依赖于中国
今年一连串良好的日本经济数据为经济学家们提出了一个问题：日本经济的确是在增长，但它在多大程度上依赖于中国的需求才能保持增长呢？如果中国的增长放慢又会出现什么情况？
日本经济目前已连续7个季度出现增长，4-6月份当季较前一季度增长0.9%，7-9月份当季较前一季度增长0.6%。但对这些数字需要加以说明。
首先，这些数据经过通货膨胀因素调整，即为实际国内生产总值(GDP)的增长率。而最近一个季度的名义GDP增长率则和上一季度持平。另外，许多经济学家认为，由于对通货紧缩的过高估计，近来对经济增长的计算出现了偏差，因此，实际GDP的增幅应该低于公布的数据。不过，对一个在过去10年中始终在衰退的边缘挣扎的国家来说，这已经是十分出色的表现了。
但是除此之外，令日本忧心忡忡的问题是，经济的增长很少是受国内需求拉动。上一季度中私有领域和政府的支出均未出现增长，同时由于首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)压缩了政府开支，政府的投资反而较此前一个季度下降了3.9%。
推动日本经济增长的两大主力是出口和私有领域的资本支出，其中资本支出又被用于添置工厂设备用以制造出口产品。这使日本经济复苏和希望解决深层次结构性问题的过程中很容易受到海外经济放缓的冲击。 同样值得注意的是，日本出口中增长幅度最大的部分是针对亚洲国家的，尤其是向中国的出口。日本对中国大陆和香港的出口总额已经超过了对欧洲的出口，尽管仍不及对美国的出口额。短期来看，这些数据显示了中国异乎寻常的重要地位。10月份，在日本出口较上年同期实现的增长中，有63%来自于对中国大陆和香港的出口增长。
乍一看，这似乎表明，随著中国经济的繁荣，中国除了向全球供应商品之外，也在扮演一个商品需求中心的角色；但它同时提出了一个问题：如果中国经济增长放缓，日本经济将面临多大的冲击？
ING Financial Markets驻东京经济学家理查德?杰莱姆(Richard Jerram)称，如果问到欧元区与日本在过去的两年中有何不同之处，答案有可能是日本邻近全球经济增长速度最快的国家－中国。但是杰莱姆还指出，尽管日本向中国出口机械产品，但是并不清楚这些机械产品的最终需求是否与上海市摩天大厦的修建或在威奇托福尔斯的沃尔玛超市中出售的T恤的生产有关联性。
日本国内的分析师按照企业水平将公司分为两类：一类为最终需求来自中国的公司，另一类为最终需求来自海外的公司。
另一方面，像电子制造商类公司将中国工厂作为生产基地，通过中国工厂将产品出口至其他国家，因此中国所扮演的角色就像是日本电子元件出口和最终需求设备进口中的一个通道。据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的最新数据显示，截止3月31日2002财政年度，日本公司向他们在中国的业务出口总额为8,550亿日圆（合78.1亿美元），约占同期日本向中国出口总额的24%。
除上述出口品之外，许多其他由日本出口至中国的产品很有可能为机械与部件，中国用这些设备生产出口商品。这种贸易有可能已经增长，原因是中国在两年前加入了世界贸易组织(WTO)，这使得中国经济增长的放慢对日本经济的冲击减弱。
摩根士丹利经济学家Osamu Tanaka称，中国经济的状况无疑对日本经济产生了一定的影响，但是有许多因素可能会减轻这种影响。
如果中国经济增长放缓或明显下降，向建筑项目这样的中国最终需求出口产品的日本公司将会受到影响。目前最为受益于中国建筑项目需求的两家日本公司为日立建机(Hitachi Comstruction Machinery)与小松建设工业(Komatsu)，他们生产液压挖掘机这样的建筑机械。
汇丰证券(HSBC Securities)分析师格瑞?麦克唐纳(Graeme McDonald0称，日立建机利润的60%来自中国，而产品更加多元化的小松建设工业利润的10%来自中国。日本最大工业空调生产商大金工业(Daikin Industries)为另一家中国需求受益公司，其利润的20%来自中国。
许多日本上市公司在中国均开展重要业务，但是麦克唐纳称，日立建机与大金工业最容易受到中国经济波动的影响。
