Stocks Race to New Bull-Market Highs
Make no mistake: The indexes have been sturdy in mounting new bull-market highs, amid any number of excuses for buyers to turn timid. The tape doesn't lie, and there's no such thing as a false price, so the action must be respected.
There's plenty to support the bullish case below the index level, too. Bank stocks have been strong in defiance of the cigar-store wisdom about flat yield curves and mortgage slowdowns. Investment banks are coining money and their stocks show no quit. Transportation stocks keep chugging along nicely.
The broad New York Stock Exchange Composite index reached a new all-time high, as did the small-cap Russell 2000. (One more time: Small stocks won't likely cede the lead to the giants unless and until the market corrects in a significant way.) Merger chatter is loud and constant, and investors' participation in the takeover lottery is broad. Some bulls would add to this cheery tune that the fish are jumping, the cotton high.
These were all key features of the healthy gains last week, which amounted to about 2% for most headline indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 203 to 11,279, while the Standard & Poor's 500 added 25 to reach 1307, both representing near-five-year highs. The Nasdaq Composite rose 44 to 2306.
Clearing the way for shares to stretch the upper end of their trading range was a firmer bond market. As noted here last week, stock traders became freshly fixated on bond yields once they had shuttled toward two-year highs. Until a new preoccupation takes hold, then, bonds offer a good clue for stocks.
Friendly Witch: Stocks stayed strong amid the quarterly "quadruple-witching" expiration of options and futures, with the Dow adding 203 points to reach its highest level since May 2001. Boeing and Honeywell both hit new 52-week highs.
Bonds were oversold on a short-term basis and also grabbed a bid from a couple of data releases interpretable as evidence of cooling economic pressures (soft retail sales and an unthreatening consumer-price index). The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 4.80% to 4.67% in five days. With too many speculators betting against bonds still, it's possible that moderating rates can remain an equity tailwind.
Yet, at the risk of seeming impudent, there are sore-thumb exceptions to the happy scenario that nag at some close watchers of the market's mechanics. Trading volume was unspectacular, even on the strongest upside spurts of the week. Semiconductor stocks are glaring in their weakness, as are large tech shares in general and some other barometers of risk-taking and buyers' conviction.
The number of stocks driving the indexes is merely OK. Larry Berman, technical strategist at CIBC World Markets, noted on Friday that, "The number of stocks (in the S&P 500) that have made new 52-week highs in the past week was 104, which is notably lower than the 128 that we saw at the January '06 and July '05 peaks."
While invoking options expirations as a market driver is a bit of a rogue's excuse (and an unverifiable one, at that), there were traders before last week who suggested the market would have a positive bias into Friday's quarterly expiration, as well. That seems to have been the case.
In short, although the benchmarks have nosed to a new cycle high, this rally is not quite acting according to the ideal script for a continued thrust to new highs. None of these quibbles require that stocks fail in a dramatic way, or even that they stop going up -- just that the advance seems tired for the moment.
What we're seeing below the surface could be simply an on-the-run, orderly rotation from certain stocks and sectors (from semis and Internet plays into industrials and banks), with a positive net effect.
Equity optimists could get their avid and undying wish that the Federal Reserve will turn benign without having to see worrisome economic numbers (that is, gain without pain). Arguing against the likelihood of this is the unpredictability of monetary policy when the Fed is "data dependent."
Some graybeards keep repeating that the second year of a presidential term usually involves the market hitting an air pocket. The bull market, at 42 months and counting, has gone a long time without a serious pullback. Within weeks, too, the talk will be of earnings-warning season.
A relatively recent dynamic in the bull-bear debate has been the emphatic return of retail-investor money.
Charles Schwab (ticker: SCHW) last week reported that February was among the heaviest months for client trading since the bubble burst in 2000; the firm took in a net $10.6 billion in assets, a big haul. Some of this is market-share gain, but it fits with other indicators of an awakened investing public.
In the short term, if inflows continue, this money will keep the market firm. But the public's lack of interest in stocks wasn't an altogether bad thing, given the timeless notion that no market flops without first hooking the little guy.
THERE USED TO BE bond vigilantes, who would enforce fiscal discipline and a tough stand on inflation by demanding higher interest rates. Now, it's the equity extortionists who are wielding the capital-market cudgels.
Despite the association with outlaw behavior, these extortionists (as they're being labeled here) are legally -- if often abrasively -- demanding that companies take action for the benefit of shareholders. Usually, this involves reslicing the balance-sheet pie to grab bigger slices than bondholders (through leverage and stock buybacks), or an outright sale of a company.
It's an interesting outgrowth of a post-bear-market environment in which big companies have hoarded cash, restrained capital investment and generally operated in a mode suited for risk-averse bond investors. Now, as stock owners begin to yank the pendulum of asset-class preference in their direction, bond watchers are newly nervous about "activist risk," not to mention leveraged-buyout prospects.
This theme has been developing for the past couple of years, but it continues to grow, as aggressive and heavily incented pools of money look to take for themselves that which the market fails to give on its own. Investment banks and lawyers have set up special practices to defend companies from activist hedge funds -- a sure sign this is a growth market.
美国股市再创牛市新高
美国股市上周不断刷新历史高点，但现在就齐声欢呼还为时尚早。
的确是这样：各类股指稳步上扬，向新的牛市高点发起一轮又一轮的冲击，买家没有任何理由放松脚步。数字和图表这些记录不会撒谎，市场上的确没有虚假价格，所以股市的表现应该得到赞许。
在股指下方，也有很多牛市支撑因素。银行类股无视收益率曲线平缓和抵押贷款放缓的趋势而持续走强，投资银行财源广进，他们的股票也丝毫不见颓势。交通运输类股也继续轻松上扬。
纽约证交所主要指数上周创出历史新高，小型股罗素2000指数也是如此。（再说一次：除非股市出现重大回调，否则小型股不会放弃领先于大型股的地位。）合并传言沸沸扬扬，持久不衰，投资者普遍愿意投身参与并购交易。
这些都是上周股市实现良好收益的关键特征，大部分重要股指都实现了大约2%的涨幅。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数涨203点至11279点；标准普尔500指数涨25点至1307点，均为近5年来的高点。那斯达克综合指数涨44点至2306点。
股市交易区间的上限不断抬高，而为此扫清道路的则是不断走强的债券市场。就像本栏目上周提到的，债市收益率冲向两年高点时引起了股市交易员的关注。在值得关注的新生事物出现之前，债市会成为股票买卖的风向标。
债市已经短线超卖，但也吸引了少量买盘，这些买盘基于一些可被看作是经济降温的数据（疲软的零售数据和丝毫没有通货膨胀威胁的消费者价格指数）。10年期国债收益率在上周的5个交易日内从4.80%降至4.67%。眼下仍有太多投机者看跌债市，那么股市就有可能继续搭乘一段利率温和的顺风车。
不过，这一场欢乐的盛宴中也有几处引人注目、格格不入的迹象。交易量不够大，哪怕是上周涨势最凌厉的那天。半导体类股显现出弱势特征，大型科技类股和一些风险指标以及买家力度指标也是一样。
推动股指攀升的股票数量只能算过得去而已。CIBC World Markets的技术分析策略师拉里?伯曼(Larry Berman)上周五指出，上周刷新52周高点的标准普尔500指数成份股只有104只，大大低于今年1月份和去年7月份股市高点时的128只。
据说期货合约到期交割也是推动股市走高的因素之一，尽管这个理由有点强词夺理（这一点也没法证实），但上周前还是有交易员说股市在上周五季度期货合约到期交割之前具有上涨动力。看来的确是这种情况。
简而言之，尽管大盘创出了本轮走势的新高，但这种反弹与理想的屡创新高的模式尚有一些差距。但所有这些争论并不是认为股市不会再大幅上涨，甚或将停止涨势，只是感觉股市近期上涨乏力。
实际上，我们看到的可能只是轮涨，也即部分股票和类股的轮番上涨（从半导体和互联网类股转向工业和银行类股）抵消了其余股票的下跌。
对股市持乐观态度的人一直抱有美好的愿望，就是如果没有令人不安的经济数据，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)将转而实行良性的政策。持不同意见的人则认为，当Fed对数据过于依赖时，将带来货币政策的不可预见性。
一些过来人反复说，总统任期的第二年通常会出现股市的大幅下跌。本轮牛市持续了42个月，并还在延续，已有很长时间没有出现象样的回调了。而且再过几周就是发布收益预警的季节了。
在股市何去何从的争论中，近期的一个焦点就是散户资金的明显回流。
嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.)上周公布，2月份是2000年科技股泡沫破裂以来客户交易额最大的一个月；当月该公司净流入资产106亿美元。一部分新增资金是由于市场占有率的提高，但这也与一些指标显示出的股民投资热情的高涨相吻合。
在短期内，如果资金继续流入，股市将保持坚挺走势。但鉴于市场只是少数人获利这个永恒的信条，散户对股市缺乏兴趣并不见得是件坏事。
还有一些对债市保持高度警惕的人，他们支持严格执行财政政策，对通货膨胀持强硬态度，认为应该上调利率。而现在，正是股市的“敲诈者”在挥舞著资本市场的大棒。
虽然敲诈行为是违法的，但这里所说的敲诈者却都是守法的，尽管做法经常比较粗暴。他们要求上市公司采取措施给股东带来利益。通常，这包括对资产进行重组，获得比债券持有人更大的收益（通过财务杠杆和股票回购），或是直接出售公司。
这是后熊市环境下的副产品。在后熊市环境下，大公司多是积累现金、限制资本投资，通常按照适合于风险规避的债券投资者的模式进行运作。现在，随著股市投资者越来越按照他们的意愿要求进行资产重组，债市观察人士开始对“权益活动家的风险”感到紧张，更不用说对杠杆收购的担忧了。
这个主题在过去两年里已经出现，但还在不断延续，因为大量资金积极寻求市场本身难以令其满意的回报。投资银行和律师尝试了一些特殊做法，使公司不受权益活动类对冲基金的冲击，这显然是成长型市场的一个迹象。
