U.S. Tensions Rise Over China
Trade Deficit, Yuan Preoccupy
Washington Before Hu's Visit
WASHINGTON -- As if spats over port security and India's nuclear plans weren't enough, the Bush administration and Congress are encountering a brewing storm over China that could harm both countries.
America's trade woes with China have slipped to the margins recently amid fears of civil war in Iraq and diplomatic dust-ups over India and Iran. But lawmakers warn, and many in the Bush administration agree, that several factors portend a spike in tensions between the U.S. and Beijing -- and not just on traditional trade issues.
Exacerbating matters is the fact that both countries now have very different fixations.
Washington is focused on its trade deficit with China and the clamor for Beijing to get tough on piracy and change its currency policies -- all with an eye toward the November election. In Congress, lawmakers are threatening to move on several bills to slap back at China if Beijing doesn't implement changes soon.
China at the moment is fixated on independence murmurings from Taiwan and an internal debate over its own economic course. The question in China is how to keep the country's economy expanding fast enough to employ millions more rural workers and tamp down domestic unrest. One thing Beijing's leaders don't want is a potentially disruptive revaluation of China's currency, the yuan.
Top Bush officials, meanwhile, find themselves caught in a curious bind: On the one hand, they want to prod China, and even to threaten repercussions, if Beijing doesn't budge. On the other hand, they are wary of stirring still more protectionist passions in Congress, especially at a time of uncertainty within China itself. The congressional backlash over the Dubai ports deal exposed sensitivity over perceived foreign meddling that surprised many in the Bush administration. "We don't want to see a repeat of Dubai," one administration official said.
The tensions come as President Bush is scheduled to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao at the White House in late April for a summit that was bumped from last fall. Although the gathering is several weeks away, the atmosphere for the event doesn't look promising.
Bush aides anticipate that China will come through on at least a few "deliverables" to sweeten the pot before President Hu's arrival. The two sides' top trade and economic ministers plan to meet April 11 at a joint economic session in Washington, where the U.S. hopes that Beijing will lay out several new initiatives to crack down on piracy, mainly with computer software. China is expected to announce, for instance, an increase in government spending on copyrighted software and a new initiative to enforce rules that Chinese enterprises use only licensed software.
Positions are hardening on the bigger issues, however, causing worry among U.S. officials that China won't show sufficient resolve to keep an increasingly restive Congress at bay. The biggest irritant for Congress is China's currency system. Critics in the U.S. accuse Beijing of keeping the yuan at an artificially low price against the dollar, thus giving a crucial edge to Chinese exports.
China is sending somewhat mixed signals on the currency front. This week, Premier Wen Jiabao ruled out any "surprise moves" on the currency, saying China's current exchange-rate system is fine as it is. Yet yesterday, the yuan scored its biggest single-day jump against the dollar -- 0.12% -- since the Chinese gave the currency more flexibility in July. Other Chinese officials promise gradual overhauls in areas like intellectual-property protections, but very much at China's own pace.
Hardly soothed, a restive Congress is increasing threats to push ahead on a range of anti-China legislation. Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said yesterday they will travel to China this weekend to assess Beijing's intentions on the currency.
Unless China moves to revalue the yuan, the senators may push ahead on a bill to slap 27.5% tariffs on all Chinese imports by the end of March -- a measure that won the procedural backing of 67 senators last year and would likely receive even greater support in the House.
Sen. Graham said yesterday the vote would be put off only if the two came away from their trip convinced that China's decision to give the currency more flexibility "is more than a fig leaf." The Chinese, he said, "have their own fate in their hands."
Hoping to deflect the Schumer/Graham bill, the Bush administration has been working with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley of Iowa on less-punitive legislation that may expose China to heightened duties while increasing enforcement of existing trade rules.
The Bush administration has been trying to ratchet up the pressure on China for some time without overplaying its hand. Last month, Trade Representative Rob Portman said he was creating a China enforcement office as part of a broad review of trade ties between the two countries and may pursue trade cases against China over auto-parts tariffs and copyright infringements. The Treasury Department has hinted it might bend to longstanding congressional pressure and label China a "currency manipulator" in a twice-yearly report, though release of that report, due out in mid-April, will almost certainly be delayed until after the Hu visit.
In a tough speech to the Asia Society on Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez warned Beijing against "gradualism" in addressing Washington's many economic complaints. Without concrete results, he warned, the administration "may be forced to reassess our bilateral economic relationship," while Congress "may go down a path that none of us want."
胡锦涛访美在即，美中关系仍存变数
港口安全及印度核计划引发的争论尚未平息，布什(Bush)政府与美国国会又开始在中国问题上酝酿著一场“暴风骤雨”，尽管有人担心这将损害中美两国的利益。
最近由于对伊拉克内战及印度、伊朗外交问题的担忧，美国暂时将中美贸易争端搁置一旁，不过国会议员警告说，一些因素预示著美中关系前景堪忧──而且争论焦点不仅仅是传统的贸易问题。许多布什政府的官员也同意这一观点。
更复杂的是当前两国的侧重点大相径庭。
美国政府的关注焦点是美国对中国巨大的贸易逆差，以及敦促中国政府严厉打击盗版、改变中国的汇率政策──这都是为美国国会11月选举作准备。美国的议员威胁说，如果中国政府不尽快改变现状，他们将推动国会通过制裁中国的法案。
不过眼下中国关注的却是台湾的独立倾向及内部对中国经济发展方向的意见分歧。中国面临的关键问题是保持经济高速增长，从而吸纳成百上千万农民工就业、防止社会动荡的发生。而打乱计划的人民币汇率重估是中国领导人不希望看到的。
布什政府高级官员却陷入了一个怪圈中：一方面，他们敦促中国采取行动，甚至以实施报复相威胁。而另一方面，他们又不愿引发国会更强烈的贸易保护主义情绪，尤其是在中国自身也存在不确定因素的情况下。国会对迪拜公司港口交易的反对暴露出国会对所谓外国干涉的敏感程度，这让许多布什政府官员感到震惊。一名美国政府官员表示，“我们不愿见到迪拜事件重演。”
在中美关系日趋紧张之际，布什总统定于4月下旬与中国主席胡锦涛在白宫会面。虽然距此次会议还有几个星期的时间，但会谈前景似乎并不乐观。
布什助手认为，中国政府在胡锦涛访美前将至少完成几件“应景”事以增大会谈的筹码。双方的经贸高级官员将于4月11日参加在华盛顿举行的美中经济论坛，美国希望中国政府届时拿出一些打击盗版，尤其是电脑软件盗版的方案。中国可能在此次会议上宣布加大对正版软件的政府投入，颁布要求中国企业使用正版软件的新政策。
不过中国在重要问题上的立场更加强硬了，美国官员因此担心中国没有足够的耐心平息美国国会的不满。国会最恼怒的问题就是中国的汇率体制。美国批评家谴责中国人为将人民币兑美元汇率维持在低水平，从而使中国的出口商品获得了明显的价格优势。
中国在人民币汇率问题上发出的信号令人捉摸不定。中国总理温家宝本周排除了人民币“突然升值”的可能性，表示不会改变中国现行的汇率体制。不过人民币兑美元汇率在周三创下了自去年7月汇率体制改革后0.12%的单日涨幅新高。其他中国官员允诺将对知识产权保护等领域进行逐步改革，不过改革进程很大程度上由中国自己决定。
这些举措难以消除美国国会的担心，它们威胁将采取行动，提出一系列反华提案。纽约州民主党参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)和南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)周三表示他们将于本周末访问中国以了解政府对人民币汇率的态度。
除非中国重估人民币汇率，否则他们将推动实施一个对所有进口的中国商品征收27.5%关税的法案──此举在去年的程序投票中赢得了67名参议员的支持，并可能获得更多议员的支持。
格雷厄姆周三表示，他们只有在此次中国之行中认定中国的汇率体制改革“不仅仅是块遮羞布”，才会要求国会推迟投票。他说，中国人“自己掌握著命运。”
布什政府为了转移对舒默-格雷厄姆法案的注意力，一直在和美国参议院财政委员会(Senate Finance Committee)主席查尔斯?格拉斯利(Charles Grassley)制定惩罚较轻的法案：加强现有贸易规定的执行力度，另外还将提高关税。
布什政府在对中国施压的同时，又要避免用力过度。美国贸易代表波特曼(Rob Portman)上月表示，将设立新的中国执行办公室，以监控中美贸易关系，可能还将对中国的汽车零件关税以及侵犯版权行为提出诉讼。财政部暗示，可能屈服于美国国会长时间的压力，在半年一度的报告中将中国列为“汇率操纵国”，不过原定4月中旬发布的这个报告很可能将推迟至胡锦涛访美之后。
