Climate of Suspicion:High-Tech Forecasts Are a Turnoff in Turin
Many Teams Aren't Listening
To Official Meteorologists;
Norway Hears From Oslo
SESTRIERE, Italy -- From a specially built cabin overlooking the Olympic ski slopes, Christian Ronchi and 10 other meteorologists, snow experts and technicians pore over a steady stream of temperature readings, wind speeds and humidity levels. Multiple satellite images predict minute changes. Snow crystals are analyzed. Data are cross-checked with historical temperatures to increase the accuracy of the forecasts, which are sent out to the ski teams here three times a day.
Do the teams use this stuff?
Often the answer is no. "We get our data from Oslo," says Marius Arnesen, head coach of the Norwegian men's Alpine team.
? Graphic: Photo Slideshow
For Torino 2006, organizers set out to create a blizzard of weather data. Thousands of temperature and humidity readings are taken at 10-minute intervals and then fed to weather stations manned by teams of meteorologists, geologists and physicists. The goal was to create one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date weather forecasting systems in the history of sport, say its organizers. The total additional cost for the system is estimated at more than �3.5 million ($4.2 million), funded by both the Torino Olympic organizing committee and the Piedmont regional government.
But in the ultracompetitive Olympic environment, even science is regarded with suspicion. Top teams say they have too much riding on even small fluctuations in wind or humidity to trust someone else's measurements. "We take our own. ... We need to have it firsthand," says Max Gartner, the head of the Canadian men's Alpine team.
The German cross-country team takes snow and air temperatures every hour throughout the day. The U.S. team takes readings throughout the cross-country course four to five times a day. Until a few years ago, the Norwegian team would bring along its own meteorologist to the Olympics.
"You take anything related to the Olympics, and it's overdone," concedes John Aalberg, the assistant technical delegate and member of the jury at the cross-country skiing site. "Now, we're producing more than we need."
The International Ski Federation requires that a minimum set of temperature readings be provided at each competition site. The data are crucial for skiers, who need to adjust what combinations of wax they use and even change skis for conditions that can vary along a course. In Alpine skiing, for example, wax technicians generally are trying to gauge the air and snow temperatures as well as humidity levels so as to find a wax that will provide the least friction. For cross-country, wax technicians often are looking for one wax that will provide some friction as the skiers kick, and another wax that helps them glide. Finding the right mix between the two, and fine-tuning it to the weather conditions, requires experience and a delicate touch.
At the Salt Lake City Winter Games in 2002, organizers worked hard to improve the official forecasts in order to guarantee that all teams had access to up-to-date and high-quality data. The Torino organizers, however, decided they wanted to do them one better.
"At each Olympics, you try to do more than at the last one," says Renata Pelosini, a meteorologist from the Piedmont regional government who is helping to coordinate the 70 people staffing the weather stations around the Games.
For several years, weathermen in Turin have been readying their plans to provide an avalanche of meteorological data. They sent a team to Salt Lake City before the Winter Olympics began there to see the system that had been set up. Some of the meteorologists in Turin have been manning their weather stations for more than two winters already to put the system through its paces. In February last year, they did a dry run of weather readings in order to have a precise historical comparison with this year's data. Web cameras are set up at key points on different courses to check visibility. For example, teams can access a Web site to see a 360-degree view of the departure point for the downhill. (see
http://meteogiochi.arpa.piemonte.it)
In the weather booth at the cross-country skiing venue, two meteorologists and two snow experts, nivologi in Italian, read the results from the thermal mapping of the course taken every morning. The mapping is done by attaching an infrared thermometer and a global positioning satellite device to a snowmobile that is driven over the course at six miles an hour. The thermometer takes a reading every second, enabling the weathermen to produce a color-coded map of the snow temperature along the course.
Though the map -- along with a lot of other data -- is provided to the skiers each day, the weathermen are regarded warily. "The teams don't want to talk to us. They are very guarded," says Enrico Oliviero, a geologist and snow expert who works at the cross-country venue.
It isn't that the teams don't need mountains of information. At Salt Lake City, the Norwegian team requested snow samples from different months of the year. "We sent vials of snow to Oslo so they could analyze them in a lab," says Mr. Aalberg, who served as the cross-country competition manager for the 2002 Winter Games. "That's the extreme end." On the other hand, he says, the information is a boon to the smaller teams. "I don't think Ethiopia takes its own weather readings," he says. (This year Ethiopia has one cross-country skier in the Games. He couldn't be located to comment.) The Chilean ski team, with its nine skiers, also uses the official weather data.
Many others just bring their own thermometers. Curtis Bacca, a wax technician with the U.S. snowboarding team began sticking his temperature gauge in the snow as soon as he got to the slopes. Since sunny parts of the course are considerably warmer than the shady parts, he says that finding the right balance is as much art as it is science. "If I wax too warm, the colder parts will rip the wax off," he says.
Wax technicians jealousy guard the secrets of their trade from competitors. "There is no exchange of information," says Chris Hall, head wax technician with the U.S. cross-country team. "We keep it all to ourselves." That climate of distrust also clouds their confidence in accepting other weather forecasts.
The weathermen of Turin accept that despite their efforts to be precise, many teams give them the cold shoulder. "It's human nature, I undersand it," Mr. Ronchi says. He says that in Italy, until recently, newspapers would publish the weather map "next to the horoscopes. "It's only now being considered a science here," he says.
Still, he is proud to be providing a weather report that in the past only the top teams could obtain. "What we are doing is leveling the playing field for everyone," he says.
冬奥会气象预报门庭冷落
在一个特别建造的能俯瞰整个奥林匹克滑雪场的小屋里，克里斯蒂安?隆奇(Christian Ronchi)和另外10位气象学家、雪况专家和技术人员注视著动态的温度、风速和湿度数据变化。多个卫星云图预测著每分钟的气象演变，雪花晶体要进行分析，各项读数要与往年的气象数据交叉比对，以提高预报的精确性，然后以每天三次的频率发往各参赛队。
但参赛队会使用这些数据吗？
通常的回答是“不”。“我们直接从挪威首都奥斯陆获取气象数据。”挪威高山滑雪男队的主教练马里乌斯?阿尼森(Marius Arnesen)说道。
在2006年都灵冬奥会上，主办方致力于提供大量的气象数据。每10分钟就要测量数以千计的温度和湿度数据，然后提供给由气象学家、地理学家和物理学家共同运作的气象中心。据主办方称，其目的就是要创造出体育史上最成熟、最先进的气象预报系统之一。建立该系统的额外成本预计超过350万欧元（420万美元），由都灵冬奥会组委会和皮德蒙特地方政府共同承担。
但在竞争异常激烈的奥运会环境下，就算科学也要接受人们怀疑的目光。顶尖的滑雪队说，即使风速和湿度的一点点细微变化都会影响到比赛成绩，因此他们不相信别人提供的测量数据。“我们自己测量. . . 因为我们需要第一手信息。”加拿大高山滑雪男队的主教练麦克斯?加特纳(Max Gartner)说道。
德国越野滑雪队每小时都要测量一次雪场和空气的温度，全天如此。美国队在整个越野赛程中每天测量4到5次。直到几年前，挪威队都还把自己的气象学家带到冬奥会来。
“只要是涉及奥运会的事情，都有点做过头了。” 冬奥会助理技术代表、越野滑雪赛裁判委员会委员约翰?艾尔伯格(John Aalberg)坦承，“现在，我们提供的气象信息是供大于求。”
国际滑雪联合会(International Ski Federation)要求每个竞赛场地都要提供一套基础的温度测量数据。这些数据对滑雪选手来说至关重要，因为他们要据此调整用蜡，甚至在赛程中根据不同情况更换滑雪板。比如在高山滑雪中，用蜡技师通常会根据空气和雪地的温度及湿度，选择一种便于选手在蹬雪板时增加摩擦力的蜡。在越野滑雪时，技师常需要找到一种增加摩擦力的蜡和帮助选手滑行的蜡。技师要在两种蜡中找到一个平衡点，并按天气状况微调至最佳状态，这需要丰富的经验和敏锐的感觉。
在2002年盐湖城冬奥会上，主办方努力改进官方天气预报的质量，以确保参赛各队能获得高质量的最新数据。不过，都灵冬奥会的主办方下决心要做得更好。
“每次举办冬奥会，主办方都会尽力做得比上一届好。”来自皮德蒙特地方政府的气象学家瑞纳塔?佩罗悉尼(Renata Pelosini)说道，他负责此次冬奥会气象中心内70名工作人员的协调事宜。
这几年来，都灵的气象学家一直在为冬奥会做准备，以提供详尽的气象数据。他们派出一个团去盐湖城冬奥会取经，实地了解那里的气象预测系统。有些都灵的气象学家已经在气象中心工作了两年多时间，为的是确保整个系统的平稳运作。2005年2月，他们做了一次演练，测量各项气象读数，以便与历史数据进行精确比对。不同赛道的关键地点都设置了网络摄像头，以监测能见度。参赛各队也能通过网站(
http://meteogiochi.arpa.piemonte.it)看到下坡的全方位路线图。
在越野滑雪赛场的气象监测室内，两位气象学家和两位雪况专家每天都要研究赛道的热成像图。该图是通过一辆装载著红外线温度计和全球定位系统的雪地摩托在赛道上以6公里时速行驶后测量得到的。红外线温度计每秒钟测量一次赛道温度，气象学家就能据此以色彩标示出雪地温度状况。
虽然这个热成像图以及其他许多数据每天都会提供给参赛选手，但他们对气象学家仍存有怀疑。“滑雪队不和我们说话，一副很有戒心的样子。”在越野滑雪赛场工作的地理学家兼雪况专家恩里科?欧利维罗(Enrico Oliviero)说道。
这并不是说参赛各队不需要大量的气象信息。在盐湖城冬奥会上，挪威队要求提供一年中各月的雪花样本。“我们将这些样本送去奥斯陆，让专家在实验室里进行分析。”曾任2002年冬奥会越野赛挪威队总协调人的艾尔伯格说道，“不过这属于极端情况。”从另一方面来看，主办方提供的气象信息对一些规模较小的参赛队来说很有帮助。“我想埃塞俄比亚队不会自己测量气象数据。”（今年埃塞俄比亚有一名选手参加越野赛，不过我们未能采访到他。）智利滑雪队今年派出了9名选手，他们也使用官方提供的气象数据。
其他许多选手都自己带来温度测量仪器，美国雪板队的用蜡技师科提斯?巴卡(Curtis Bacca)一到赛场就把温度计插入雪中进行测量。他说，由于赛道阳面的温度要比阴面高得多，因此把握好用蜡平衡既要靠计算也要靠感觉。“如果我用的蜡温度太高，那赛道较冷的地方就会把蜡摩擦掉。”
用蜡技师都对自己的看家本领秘而不宣。“我们从不交流心得，”美国越野滑雪队的用蜡技师克里斯?豪尔(Chris Hall)说，“自己的想法只有自己知道。”这种互不信任的行业氛围也促使他们不敢相信来自其他渠道的天气预报。
都灵的气象学家承认，虽然他们努力确保气象预报的精确性，但许多参赛队对此不屑一顾。“这是人类的本性，我能理解。”隆奇先生说道。他还说，以前意大利的报纸都把天气预报“放在占星术的旁边”，直到最近才有所改变，“天气预报正逐渐被认为是一种科学。”
不过，他还是为自己感到骄傲，因为他现在提供的气象报告以往只有顶尖滑雪队才能获得，“我们所做的就是为每个参赛选手提供一个公平竞争的环境。”
