An inhuman race? How the lure of the city is rapidly swelling the world's slums
"A dirtier or more wretched place he had never seen. The street was very narrow and muddy, and the air was impregnated with filthy odours . . . Covered ways and yards, which here and there diverged from the main street, disclosed little knots of houses, where drunken men and women were positively wallowing in filth."
The well-heeled residents of 21st-century Clerkenwell would not recognise the description of their chic streets in Charles Dickens' Oliver Twist. By locating Fagin's thieves' kitchen in Saffron Hill, he was choosing one of Victorian London's most notorious slums; today, even a small flat on the same street can cost more than ￡500,000 ($954,000, �741,000).
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But the sort of urban squalor Londoners associate with the 19th century is growing "at an unprecedented rate", according to the United Nations. Next year, the UN estimates, more than 1bn people - one out of every three city residents - will live in slums.
As Dickens' contemporaries were well aware, the growth of London's slums in the 19th entury was fuelled by an influx of people from the countryside. For England, this represented the biggest social shift of the century: the point, reached in 1851, when for the first time there were more people living in English cities than in the countryside. In 2007, such a tipping point will occur for the whole world: before the year is out, the balance of the world's population will change, perhaps forever. For the first time, more people will live in cities than rural areas.
Since most of these people will be in the developing world, the UN predicts in its State of the World's Cities report that urban growth "will become virtually synonymous with slum formation in some regions".
This rapid growth will present enormous environmental problems. Overcrowding and poor housing are the most obvious issues for slumdwellers, but these are compounded by poor sanitation and a lack of clean water. There is often little provision for the disposal of solid waste. For instance, only 25 per cent of daily waste is collected in Nairobi. Slums also often suffer badly from pollution, because they are built on contaminated land or undesirable areas near large industrial installations.
Priti Parikh, a chartered engineer researching slum issues at the University of Cambridge, explains: "In India, for example, the rainy season is a particular problem because the mud roads get flooded, and slums tend to be in areas of poor drainage [because well-drained land is already occupied by higher value developments]. Then the sewage and the storm water get mixed up, leading to disease, and the standing water leads to malaria."
For these reasons, slumdwellers suffer what Anna Tibaijuka, executive director at UN-Habitat, the human settlements programme, calls the "urban penalty". She explains: "They have worse health [because of poor sanitation] and they are affected by the worst effects of industrial pollution. If there is a flood or a disaster, it's the poor who always suffer."
So far, there seems little prospect of solving these problems in most cities. Even the UN's own "millennium development goals" feature nothing more ambitious than a vow to "improve the lives of at least 100m slumdwellers by 2020". Given the numbers involved, this is simply tinkering at the edges.
The scale of the problem is daunting. More than one-quarter of the developing world's urban population- more than 560m people - lack access to clean water and sanitation, and about 1.6m people a year die as a direct result. The World Health Organisation estimates that as much as one-quarter of global disease is caused by environmental problems that, if tackled, could save up to 13m lives a year. More than 40 per cent of malaria cases and an estimated 94 per cent of sickness and death from diarrhoeal diseases - two of the biggest killers of children - are preventable.
Few developing country governments could hope to afford the vast sums needed to clean up their slums. The UN estimates that just meeting its millennium development goal on urban poverty would cost $67bn (�52bn, ￡35bn). But by 2020, another 400m people will be living in slums, and these people will need $20bn a year in assistance to gain access to basic services and amenities. Annual spending on slums, from both public and private funds, amounts to between 5 and 10 per cent of the sums needed.
What lessons does history teach about tackling the scourges urbanisation brings in its wake? London's Dickensian misery was alleviated only through a massive programme of public works in the second half of the 19th century. The sewage system built in the wake of the Great Stink of 1858 [from effluent in the Thames] took advantage of existing waterways and serves the city to this day.
Himanshu Parikh, Priti's father and director of Buro Happold Engineers, has pioneered a similar solution in the form of "slum networking". This involves making use of the natural contours of an area rather than relying on pumps to bring water to the surface. Water courses can be diverted and used to flush lavatories, while sewage can be treated using natural methods such as planting reed beds. Mud tracks can be paved so as to act as storm drains when water needs to overflow from the courses it has carved out, ensuring they do not turn into open sewers.
Ms Parikh adds that the most successful developments she has seen involve local people, businesses and government working together on slum improvement projects. These have tended to be on a small scale, involving between 800 and 1,200 houses at a time. Projects on a larger scale can become bogged down in bureaucracy and the need to co-ordinate a greater number of interested parties.
The UN-Habitat report on the world's citiesidentified strong central government as another essential ingredient in effective slum improvement. "Consistency in political commitment is crucial in mobilising long-term support for slum upgrading," the report notes. Clear, publicly stated goals and explicit political pronouncements on slums are part of this. Morocco, for instance, has set itself the goal of becoming a slum-free country by 2010.
Ms Tibaijuka says central government needs to direct migration better in order to avoid congestion in the most populous slums. This need not involve controversial forced clearances; instead, strategies can be developed to help people migrating from the countryside find shelter in the cities best able to accommodate them.
Governments also need to be powerful enough to enforce environmental regulations. Multinational companies investing in the developing world are increasingly aware of the reputational risk they can run from generating dangerous pollution. Ms Tibaijuka points to the disaster at Union Carbide in Bhopal in 1984, in which thousands of people died when a dangerous gas leaked from a pesticide plant, as one of the most serious examples of how companies can fail, and the consequences they face as a result.
Heavy industry is not the worst form of pollution slumdwellers must contend with; sometimes, the source is closer to home. Indoor air pollution caused by open fires for cooking and heating in the home is the fourth biggest killer of the world's poor, according to the World Health Organisation. Bronchitis, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses contracted from breathing in smoke particles kill an estimated 1.6m people each year. The majority of victims are women and children, as they tend to spend most time in the home.
There are some simple solutions to this form of pollution, such as better-designed cooking pots that retain more heat. In China, there are plans to produce a coal-derived liquid fuel called dimethyl ether, which burns more cleanly and can be used for domestic cooking and heating, and in transport.
Outdoor air pollution is also worsening in many cities as road traffic increases, and urban regions are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions. China is home to 16 of the world's 20 most air-polluted cities, says the UN, and over the past 10 years the concentration of pollutants in China's air has increased by 50 per cent.
Land reform can be an important weapon in the battle against urban poverty. Slumdwellers suffer from an inherent insecurity because they rarely own title to their land. This leaves them vulnerable to government interference and the whims of developers and reduces their incentive to improve their areas.
None of these issues are easily addressed but, as the UN's report makes clear, the problems incubating in the world's slums can no longer be ignored. Moving from Dickensian squalor to the fashionable restaurants and penthouses of today's Clerkenwell took well over 100 years.Given the speed at which slums are spreading today, urban dwellers must hope the 21st century will yield a more rapid solution than the 19th.
贫民窟：城市化黑洞
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他从没见过比这儿更肮脏或者说更破败的地方。街道非常狭窄，一片泥泞；空气中充斥着各种污浊的气味……一些黑洞洞的过道和院落从街上分岔而去，露出几处挤在一起的破房子，喝得烂醉的男男女女完全是在污泥中打滚。”
这是英国作家查尔斯?狄更斯(Charles Dickens)在《雾都孤儿》(Oliver Twist)中对克拉肯韦尔的描述。他在书中把费金(Fagin)的贼窝设在了红花山(Saffron Hill)，那里是维多利亚时代伦敦最臭名昭著的贫民窟之一。但21世纪克拉肯韦尔富裕的居民决不会认可他对这里时尚街道的描述。如今，在同一条街道上，即便是一所小公寓的价格也可能会超过50万英镑（合95.4万美元）。
城市化副作用
但是，联合国(UN)的数据显示，让人联想起19世纪的这种城市贫困人口正以“前所未有的速度”增加。联合国估计，明年将有超过10亿人――每3个城市居民中就有一个――住在贫民窟
与狄更斯同时代的人非常清楚，19世纪伦敦贫民窟的增加是农村人口大量涌入造成的。对于英格兰，这是那个世纪最大的社会转变：转折点发生在1851年，当时，英国的城市人口首次超过了农村人口。2007年，这个转折将发生在全世界：到2007年底之前，世界人口的平衡将发生改变，也许是永远的改变。历史上第一次，住在城里的人将多过住在农村的人。
由于这些人多数都将来自发展中国家，因此联合国在《全球城市发展状况》(State of the World’s Cities)报告中表示，城市增长“在部分地区实际上将成为贫民窟形成的代名词。”
城市的快速发展将引发巨大的环境问题。过度拥挤和居住条件差是贫民窟居民最突出的问题，然而，其中还伴随着卫生条件差和缺乏洁净水的问题。处理固体垃圾的措施通常也很少。例如，在内罗毕，每天只有25%的生活垃圾得到清理。贫民窟通常还会受到污染的严重影响，因为它们往往建在受污染的地段或大型工业设施附近普通人不愿居住的区域。
剑桥大学(University of Cambridge)研究贫民窟问题的注册工程师普里蒂?帕里克(Priti Parikh)解释道：“例如在印度，雨季就特别成问题，因为泥路上雨水四溢，而贫民窟往往建在排水不畅的地区（因为排水畅通的地区已被更高价值的开发项目占据了）。下水道排出的污水和雨水混在一起，引发疾病，滞留的污水更会导致疟疾发作。”
鉴于上述原因，居住在贫民窟的人遭受到安娜?蒂巴伊尤卡(Anna Tibaijuka)所说的“城市惩罚”。安娜是联合国系统内负责人居和发展项目的联合国人居署(UN-Habitat)执行主任。她解释道：“（由于卫生条件差）他们的健康状况更遭，而且受到的工业污染影响最严重。如果发生洪水或灾难，穷人总是遭殃。”
形势严峻
目前看来，多数城市似乎都不太可能解决这些问题。甚至连联合国自己的“千年发展目标”(MDG)也没有提出更高的目标，只是承诺要“在2020年前改善至少1亿贫民窟居民的生活”。鉴于涉及人数之少，这不过是小打小闹，解决不了根本问题。
问题涉及范围之广令人触目惊心。发展中国家超过四分之一的城市人口――逾5.6亿人――不能获得洁净水，享受不到卫生条件，直接导致每年约160万人死亡。世界卫生组织(WHO)估计，全球多达四分之一的疾病是由环境问题造成的，如果能够得到解决，每年可能挽救多达1300万条生命。在导致儿童死亡的两大杀手――疟疾和腹泻中，超过40%的疟疾病例和大约94%由腹泻引起的疾病和死亡都是可以预防的。
很少有发展中国家政府能指望自己负担清理贫民窟所需的巨额资金。联合国估计，单是实现其解决城市贫困问题的千年发展目标，就需耗资670亿美元。但是到2020年，贫民窟居民将再增加4亿人，要帮助这些人享受到基本的生活服务和设施，每年需要支出200亿美元。全球公共和私营部门每年在贫民窟的支出，仅占贫民窟所需资金的5%至10%。
在解决城市化带来的灾难方面，历史可以给予我们什么样的经验教训呢？狄更斯笔下伦敦的悲惨景象，通过19世纪下半叶大规模的公共建设工程才得到缓解。泰晤士河的污水使1858年成为伦敦的“奇臭年”(Great Stink)。在此之后建立的排污系统利用了已有的水道，一直使用到今天。
普里蒂的父亲、布罗?哈波尔德工程师事务所(Buro Happold Engineers)主管希曼舒?帕里克(Himanshu Parikh) 开创了一种类似的解决方法：“贫民窟网络”。其理念是要利用一个地区的天然地势，而不是依靠水泵把水引向地面。河道可以改变方向，用来冲厕所，而污水可以用天然方法处理，如种植芦苇床。在需要让水溢出冲刷而成的水道时，泥沟可以铺设成排洪沟，以确保水道不会变成开放式的下水道。
普里蒂补充道，她所见过的最成功的进展，是当地人民、企业和政府共同进行的贫民窟改善项目。这些项目往往规模不大，一次仅涉及800至1200个住所。官僚作风，以及需要对更多利益相关方进行协调，可能使大规模项目陷于停滞。
政府因素
在其有关全球城市的报告中，联合国人居署将强大的中央政府视为有效改善贫民窟的另一个关键因素。报告指出：“要动员起对贫民窟改善项目的长期支持，政治承诺的连贯性至关重要。”在贫民窟问题上清楚、公开地确定的目标和明晰的政治声明，都是其中的一部分。例如，摩洛哥已经定下目标，要在2010年之前成为没有贫民窟的国家。
蒂巴伊尤卡表示，中央政府要更好地引导流动人口，以避免人口极其稠密的贫民窟出现拥堵。这并不需要采用有争议的强制清理手段，相反，可以提出一些策略，帮助从农村来的人在城市里找到最适合他们的栖身之所。
政府环境法规的执行还需要足够有力。在发展中国家投资的跨国企业日益意识到，制造危险的污染物可能为它们带来名誉风险。1984年，美国联合碳化物公司(Union Carbide)在印度博帕尔的一家农药厂发生毒气泄漏事件，导致数千人死亡。蒂巴伊尤卡指出，这场灾难就是一个最严肃的例子，说明了企业可能的失败及其严重后果。
重工业并不是贫民窟居民必须与之斗争的最严重的污染形式；有时候，污染源离家更近。世界卫生组织称，家中明火烹饪和取暖导致的室内空气污染是全球穷人的第四大杀手。由于吸入烟尘微粒而染上的支气管炎、肺炎及其它呼吸系统疾病，每年导致大约160万人死亡。受害者主要是妇女和儿童，因为他们通常大部分时间都呆在家里。
对于这种形式的污染，有一些简单的解决办法，例如设计更完善、能保持更多热量的烹饪用锅。中国计划生产一种来源于煤炭、名为“二甲醚”的液体燃料。这种燃料燃烧得更彻底，可用于家庭烹饪和取暖，还可用于交通运输。
随着道路交通流量的增加，许多城市的室外空气污染也更为严重，市区成为造成大部分温室气体排放的主要原因。联合国表示，在全球20个空气污染最严重的城市中，中国占了16个。在过去10年间，中国空气中污染物的浓度提高了50%。
土地改革可以成为对抗城市贫困的重要武器。贫民窟居民承受着与生俱来的不安全感，因为他们很少能够拥有自己的土地。这使他们容易受到政府干预和房产开发商奇思怪想的影响，也削弱了他们改善自己所在地区的动力。
任重道远
这些问题都不容易解决，不过，正如联合国报告清楚表明的那样，再也不能忽视全球贫民窟中孵化出的这些问题了。从狄更斯笔下的肮脏破败到今天克拉肯韦尔时尚的餐馆和豪华公寓，其发展历程大大超过100年。鉴于今天贫民窟扩散速度之快，城市居民肯定希望21世纪能找到比19世纪更快的解决方案。
