Oil partners make the most of an unlikely opportunity
The landmark agreement between India and China to co-operate when bidding for certain overseas energy assets has generated some unlikely outcomes. Not least where the sides meet todiscuss the finer points of joint bids.
When India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation this year agreed to jointly bid $580m foroil assets in Syria, discussions were finalised overdinner at an Italian restaurant in London.
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The neutral venue offered decent vegetarian food for the Indian side and spaghetti for the Chinese negotiators. Travelling to London is also convenient on the visa front for both sides.
Analysts and bankers are now digesting the second joint deal, this time involving state-controlled ONGC and Sinopec, China's second-biggest oil company. The pair have successfully bid $800m for a 50 per cent stake in Omimex de Colombia, an oil producer.
Does it herald the blossoming of a relationship that could have a significant impact on the sale price that producers and vendors can fetch for their assets? Or will the countries' agreement be destined to have only limited applicability?
In spite of the Colombian deal, analysts remain sceptical that China will allow ONGC, or other Indian companies, a shot at major energy deals that it is intent on securing for itself.
ONGC has lost out toChinese rivals in the race to acquire fields in Angola, Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Ecuador, since the governments of India and China signed five memorandums of understanding on the issue this year.
"Both countries are searching the world to secure oil assets and, when it is convenient, they will probably team up. But both Syria and Colombia are small deals," says David Hurd, oil and gas analyst at Deutsche Bank in Beijing.
Analysts believe both deals were in countries where US and UK oil majors would think twice about committing investment and personnel, making a bidding war for the assets unlikely.
Colombia has its risks in terms of narcotics andterrorism.
"It will be interesting to see who ONGC and Sinopec send to Latin America to oversee their investment," Mr Hurd says.
However, those familiar with the deals say it is unfair to judge the Sino-Indian agreements on the basis of two deals.
One person said: "Both sides are building up trust in each other so it is unrealistic to expect multi-billion dollar deals straight away.
"It is hard to think of any such collaboration going on in the world today. Do not underestimate the significance of what is happening here. For any deal to work, the governments and companies must all be in agreement on price and timing. That's no mean feat in India and China."
Another person with long-term knowledge of Asia'soil and gas industry says: "These joint deals will be opportunistic rather thana natural alliance. Any deal will depend on specifics. ONGC has no Latin American exposure so it isprobably happy to halve the risk by having Sinopec as a partner."
Further details about the Colombia deal are expected to emerge over the coming weeks. It is understood that UBS advised ONGC while Citigroup advised Sinopec, although both banks yesterday declined to comment.
R.S. Sharma, president of ONGC, says the state-controlled company is looking for stakes in "many more" overseas oil assets in collaboration with Chinese firms, in comments reported by Reuters.
CNOOC remains the largest Chinese oil major yet to clinch a deal with ONGC.
Analysts also believe that the Indian company has considered teaming up with China International Trust and Investment Corporation, the government-controlled conglomerate based in Beijing, to bid for Kazakhstan-based Nations Energy.
One person said: "Thereis no 'end game' to the co-operation. China and India are scrambling for energy assets and the oil industry lends itself to collaboration. There will be plenty more joint deals. They help to depress auction prices."
中印联手“重要性不可低估”
中
国和印度签订的、合作竞购某些海外能源资产的里程碑式协议，已经产生了一些意想不到的结果。而双方商谈合作竞标细节的地点也颇为出人意料。
当印度石油天然气公司(ONGC)和中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)今年达成协议，以5.8亿美元联手竞购叙利亚的石油资产时，相关细节就是双方的谈判人员在伦敦一家意大利餐厅共进晚餐时敲定的。
在这个中立的会谈场所，印度谈判人员点了上佳的素食菜肴，中方谈判人员则点了意大利面。飞往伦敦会商，对双方的签证也颇为便利。
分析人士和银行家如今正在研究中印之间的第二笔合作交易。此次交易的参与方，分别是印度国有企业印度石油天然气公司，和中国第二大石油公司中石化(Sinopec)。双方已经成功地以8亿美元的价格，购得石油生产商Omimex de Colombia公司50%的股权。
这是否预示着，中印双方之间可能对石油生产商和销售商的资产售价产生重大影响的合作关系正在蓬勃发展？抑或，双方协议是否注定仅有有限的适用范围？
尽管中印两国联手竞购了哥伦比亚的石油资产，但对于中国是否允许印度石油天然气公司等印度企业，参与中国决心自己“独吞”的大宗能源交易，分析人士仍持怀疑态度。
自从中印政府今年针对能源合作一事签署了5个谅解备忘录以来，在收购安哥拉、尼日利亚、哈萨克斯坦和厄瓜多尔等国油田的竞争中，印度石油天然气公司已经输给了中国竞争对手。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻北京的油气分析师大卫?赫德(David Hurd)表示：“两国都在全球寻找机会收购石油资产，一旦时机适宜，它们可能会展开合作。不过，叙利亚和哥伦比亚交易的规模都较小。”
分析人士认为，对于这两笔交易的所在国，美英石油巨头在考虑投资和人员配备时都会三思而行，因此，不太可能发生针对这些资产的竞购战。
哥伦比亚存在毒品和恐怖主义方面的风险。
赫德表示：“看看印度石油天然气公司和中石化会派谁去拉丁美洲监督它们的投资，将是件有意思的事。”
不过，那些熟悉相关交易的人表示，仅仅根据这两笔交易来判断中印之间的合作协议，是不公平的。
一位人士表示：“双方正在建立对彼此的信任，因此，指望双方马上达成数十亿美元的交易，不太现实。”
“如今，在全球范围内，很难想象会有这样的合作。不要低估这一切的重要性。要想达成任何交易，双方政府和企业都必须就价格和时机达成一致。这在印度和中国都绝非易事。”
一位长期研究亚洲油气行业的人士表示：“这些合作交易都将是机缘巧合的结果，而非简单的结盟即能实现。每项交易都取决于具体情况。印度石油天然气公司在拉美没有业务，因此，有中石化作为合作伙伴，将风险减少一半，它可能会非常高兴。”
有关哥伦比亚交易的更多细节，预计将在未来数周内披露。据悉，此次担任印度石油天然气公司交易顾问的是瑞银集团(UBS)，而花旗集团(Citigroup)则出任中石化的顾问。不过，这两家投行昨日均拒绝置评。
路透社(Reuters)在其评论中报道称，印度石油天然气公司总裁R?S ?夏尔马(R.S. Sharma)表示，这家印度国有企业将与中国公司展开合作，寻求在“更多”海外石油资产中持有股权。
在中国的几大石油巨头中，中海油(CNOOC)目前依然尚未与印度石油天然气公司敲定任何协议。
分析人士还认为，这家印度企业已考虑与中国中信集团(CITIC)联手，竞标位于哈萨克斯坦的Nations Energy。中信集团是中国政府控股的综合企业集团。
一位人士表示：“中印合作没有‘终极游戏’。中国和印度正在争夺能源资产，而石油行业非常适合展开协作。今后，双方将会达成更多联合交易。这有助于压低能源资产的拍卖价格。”
