Cobwebs in the Pipeline and Rivals To Nexium May Chill AstraZeneca
LONDON -- Since he took the helm at AstraZeneca PLC almost a year ago, David Brennan has taken steps to right the global drug maker. Some investors worry the company's problems are mounting faster than Mr. Brennan can fix them, raising concerns about AstraZeneca's long-term future.
After disclosing late last month that another of its experimental drugs had failed in human testing, the British company now has just one product, a cardiovascular drug, in its pipeline with the potential to contribute to sales before 2010, analysts say. Even though Mr. Brennan and his predecessor as chief executive, Sir Tom McKillop, have managed to deliver strong earnings in recent quarters by slashing costs and marketing existing products well, most of AstraZeneca's fat has been cut.
Some investors fear sales of AstraZeneca's biggest drug -- the heartburn medication Nexium -- will suffer as managed-care companies in the U.S. force their patients to use lower-cost generic versions.
Anne Marieke Ezendam, who manages the ￡20 million ($38 million) Threadneedle Global Healthcare Fund in London, said she sold all of her AstraZeneca stock in the past six weeks, though she declined to say how much that was. The trigger, she says, was UnitedHealth Group Inc.'s announcement in September that it would stop paying for Nexium. She fears other big health plans will follow suit. "I think they will have a real struggle next year" getting Nexium onto the lists of approved drugs that health plans revise periodically, she said.
AstraZeneca shares have fallen 8.9% since the company announced Oct. 26 that a late-stage stroke drug had failed, giving the company a market value of about ￡50 billion. The stock rose 0.8% to ￡32.16 in London yesterday. The company has American depository receipts, which edged up 55 cents, or 0.9%, yesterday in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading to $61.15, and about 30% of its shares are owned by U.S. investors.
Mr. Brennan acknowledged in an interview that Nexium's sales growth is slowing because of generic competition. Still, he said Nexium and other existing drugs will keep AstraZeneca growing in line with the pharmaceutical industry over the next several years.
He also is confident the company's research efforts will bear fruit. "We've made it very clear that our highest priority is to strengthen the pipeline," Mr. Brennan said. "Do we have enough? No. We're not satisfied that we have enough. I'm not sure we ever will be."
Even doubters agree that the company's big sellers likely will be enough to sustain the firm for now. Nexium had sales of $4.6 billion last year, and sales rose 12% in the first nine months of this year compared with same period last year. AstraZeneca's second-biggest drug -- the schizophrenia treatment Seroquel -- had sales of $2.8 billion last year, and sales rose 26% in the first nine months of this year.
It is when investors look a few years into the future that they become more anxious. "Investor sentiment seems to have abruptly shifted from earnings upgrades to the longer-term outlook for the company," Morgan Stanley wrote in a research note last week. (Morgan Stanley has done investment banking for AstraZeneca in the past 12 months. It has an "equal weight," or neutral rating on the stock.)
In an effort to replenish AstraZeneca's pipeline, Mr. Brennan signed a flurry of deals with biotechnology and other drug companies, licensing the rights to develop their experimental drugs. AstraZeneca previously counted mostly on internal research. In September, AstraZeneca and Germany's Schering AG struck a partnership to develop a breast-cancer drug. In August, AstraZeneca announced a deal with Pozen Inc. of the U.S. to develop pain drugs and completed its $1.3 billion purchase of United Kingdom biotechnology concern Cambridge Antibody Technology.
Many of the drug candidates AstraZeneca has acquired are in the early stages of testing and have many years to go before possibly making it to market. Friday, AstraZeneca said it will have to carry out an additional, unexpected trial of one drug it bought from an outside firm late last year. This will delay development of the treatment for sepsis, an illness caused by an infection of the bloodstream.
Swedish investment firm Investor AB, which owned 3.3% of AstraZeneca as of September and holds three of its 14 board seats, "fully supports" Mr. Brennan's search for drugs outside the company and is a "fully committed" shareholder, spokesman Fredrik Lindgren says.
Others would like to see the company be more aggressive about acquisitions. Ms. Ezendam says AstraZeneca should consider using some of its $5.8 billion in cash to buy drugs that already are on the market -- possibly by acquiring a smaller drug company.
Some analysts say AstraZeneca could even entertain an acquisition as big as Wyeth, of Madison, N.J., which has a market value of about $68 billion. Mr. Brennan said he is open to all possibilities but doesn't see an inherent advantage in growing bigger. Wyeth officials couldn't be reached for comment.
Earlier this year, many investors believed that AstraZeneca itself could become a takeover target for GlaxoSmithKline PLC or another big drug company. But some analysts now say AstraZeneca's dwindling late-stage pipeline has made it less attractive, potentially removing one of Mr. Brennan's avenues for shoring up the company's future.
阿斯利康未来前景堪忧
自从一年前执掌阿斯利康(AstraZeneca PLC)以来，戴维?布里南(David Brennan)已经采取了多项改善这家全球性制药公司的措施。不过，一些投资者仍担心，该公司还在不断冒出新问题，其速度之快恐怕布里南来不及处理，这不禁让人们对阿斯利康的长期前景感到担心。
阿斯利康上月末披露说，它又有一项试验药物在人体试验中未能过关。这样一来，在其有可能对2010年之前阶段的销售作出重大贡献的尚处于开发阶段的“候选”药物名单上，目前就只剩下一种心血管药物了。虽然布里南及前任首席执行长汤姆?麦克基洛普(Tom McKillop)近几个季度一直设法通过削减成本并改善现有产品营销来提升业绩，但为阿斯利康带来最多利润的药品现在大多已失去了优势。
一些投资者担心，由于美国的医疗保健管理公司现在要求他们的病人使用低价仿制药，阿斯利康最畅销的治疗心绞痛药物Nexium的销售额可能会受到影响。
在伦敦管理保健基金Threadneedle Global Healthcare Fund的安妮?马瑞克?艾兹丹(Anne Marieke Ezendam)说，她在过去6周时间里卖出了基金所持的全部阿斯利康股票（具体数量她没有透露）。她说，之所以这么做，是因为UnitedHealth Group Inc.九月份宣布将停止报销Nexium的药费。她担心其他大型保健项目公司也会仿效UnitedHealth的做法。她说，明年要想让Nexium进入定期调整的医疗保险报销药品名录会非常困难。
阿斯利康10月26日宣布，一种治疗心肌梗阻的药物在试验后期失败了，受此影响，阿斯利康股价下跌8.9%，公司市值相应降至500亿英镑左右。该股昨日在伦敦股市上涨0.8%至32.16英镑。其在纽约证交所交易的美国存托凭证昨日涨0.55美元至61.15美元，涨幅0.9%。该股有30%的股票为美国投资者持有。
布里南在一次接受采访时承认，由于仿制药的竞争，Nexium的销售增长的确有所放缓。不过他说，Nexium及公司其他已有药物将支撑阿斯利康未来数年以不低于行业平均水平的速度增长。
他还表示相信，公司在研发方面的投入将得到回报。他说，“我们已明确表示，我们当务之急最重要的工作是加强新药开发。现在我们的药品是否足够了呢？没有，我们还不满意。我不能肯定我们会有满足的时候”。
不过，即使是那些怀疑阿斯利康的人也同意，该公司已有的畅销药或许足以维持其眼下的业绩增长。Nexium去年的销售额是46亿美元，今年前九个月的销售较去年同期增长了12%。阿斯利康的第二大畅销药、治疗精神分裂的Seroquel去年的销售收入是28亿美元，今年前九个月的增幅是26%。
让投资者感到担心的是该公司未来几年的发展前景。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)上周在一份研究报告中写道，“市场气氛似乎突然从关注利润增加转向公司的长期前景。”（摩根士丹利在过去12个月为阿斯利康打理投资银行业务。它对该公司的评级为“中性”。）
为了拓展阿斯利康的产品线，布里南与生物科技及其他医药公司达成了一系列交易，准许这些公司开发阿斯利康处于试验阶段的药物。而此前，阿斯利康大多依靠公司内部的研发力量。今年9月份，阿斯利康和德国的Schering AG结成合作伙伴，共同开发一种治疗乳腺癌的药物。8月，阿斯利康宣布与美国的Pozen Inc.合作开发止痛药，还斥资13亿美元收购了英国生物科技公司Cambridge Antibody Technology。
阿斯利康的许多候选药物仍处在早期试验阶段，距离上市还有很长时间。上周五，阿斯利康宣布不得不对一种去年下半年从外部公司购入的败血症药物进行计划外的额外测试，而这将导致该药的开发时间被拖延。
瑞典投资公司Investor AB的发言人弗雷德里克?林格伦(Fredrik Lindgren)说，该公司“完全支持”布里南在本公司以外寻找药物的努力，同时还表示Investor AB是一个“尽职尽责”的股东。Investor9月份时持有阿斯利康3.3%的股份，在阿斯利康的14个董事席位中占据三席。
有些人认为阿斯利康在收购上应该放开手脚。艾兹丹表示，阿斯利康应该考虑利用其58亿美元的现金流收购已经上市的药物──这可以通过收购一家规模较小的制药公司实现。
有分析师认为，阿斯利康甚至可以考虑收购像惠氏(Wyeth)一样的大型企业，这家总部设在新泽西州麦迪逊的公司市值约680亿美元。布里南表示，他对公司的未来持开放态度，不过他并不认为扩张有何内在优势。记者未能联系到惠氏管理人士置评。
今年早些时候，许多投资者认为阿斯利康有可能成为葛兰素史克(Glaxosmithkline)或者另外一家大型制药公司的收购目标。不过目前有分析师表示，阿斯利康处于开发后期的药品种类日渐减少，这降低了它的吸引力，可能也会给布里南提振公司未来股价增加难度。
Jeanne Whalen
