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后压码直通车时期的练习策略

级别: 管理员
只看该作者 10 发表于: 2006-01-23
Jack Welch --- Straight From the Gut
What This CEO

Thing Is All About

    Being a CEO is the nuts! A whole jumble of thoughts come to mind: Over the top. Wild. Fun. Outrageous. Crazy. Passion. Perpetual motion. The give-and-take. Meetings into the night. Incredible friendships. Fine wine. Celebrations. Great golf courses. Big decisions in the real game. Crises and pressure. Lots of swings. A few home runs. The thrill of winning. The pain of losing.

  It's as good as it gets! You get paid a lot, but the real payoff is in the fun.

Every day, of course, wasn't this hectic. There's no pat formula to this CEO thing. Everyone does it differently, and there's no right or wrong way to go about it. I certainly don't have a magic formula, but since I was presumptuous enough to write this book, I'll take a shot at sharing some of the ideas that worked for me. I hope some might be helpful. Pick and choose among them, or just toss them all.

Integrity

A freshman at a Fairfield University Business School forum recently asked me, "How can you be a good Catholic and a business-man at the same time?"

  I answered emphatically, "I am."


杰克 韦尔奇自传
第五部分 回顾与展望

第二十四章 CEO到底是干什么的

  当CEO可不是什么好差事!一大堆乱七八糟的想法涌进我的脑海:超过额度;狂野。快乐。粗暴。疯狂。激情c永恒运动。平等交换。开会至深夜。不可思议的友谊。美酒。庆典。漂亮的高尔夫球场。在真正的较量中作出重大决策。危机与压力。多次挥棒击球。少有的几次本垒打。成功的喜悦。失败的痛苦。

  这样也不错!酬金很高,不过真正的收获是过程的快乐。

当然,也不是每天都那么紧张。CEO要做的事也不是一成不变的。

  每个人的做法都不一样,不能说谁做得对,谁做得不对,也没有惟一的评判标准。我当然也没有什么致胜法宝,不过既然现在是在写这本书,我就冒昧地说一下我的一点经验,与大家共勉,希望其中一些会对大家有所帮助。以下就是我从中筛选的几点。

  诚信

  一位费尔菲尔德大学商学院(Fairfeld University Buslness School)的女一学生在一次讨论会上问我:"你如何能将虔诚的基督教徒和优秀的商人这两个形象同时兼顾呢?”

  我以强调的口气答道:“我就做到了!"
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级别: 管理员
只看该作者 11 发表于: 2006-01-23
The Discipline of Getting Things Done
The People Process:

The Strategy Process: Making the Link with People and Operations

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE HOWS

What went wrong? For the strategy to succeed, all four of the building blocks had to be sound. But all turned out to be based on faulty assumptions. AT&T Broadband was composed of two high-profile acquired cable companies, TCI and Media One, and some existing lines of business. The cable acquisitions were costly: AT&T paid top dollar for them and then some. At the same time, long-distance prices declined faster than assumed, and as they did, the company's stock price fell too. This made the acquisitions even costlier and added a huge amount of debt to the balance sheet. Consumers weren't as interested in bundled services as AT&T had expected, and the company did not market the proposition well or soon enough. It took AT&T much longer to execute its plan than it had anticipated. Finally, the regulators didn't enforce the Telecommunications Act as well as AT&T had hoped, which meant that the company took a double hit: local phone companies entered the long-distance market, and long-distance carriers got less local access than the plan presumed.
执行--如何完成任务的学问
第三部分 执行的三个核心流程

第7章 战略流程:将人员与运营结合起来

方式的重要性

问题到底出在哪里?答案是:公司的所有战略前提都是建立在错误的假设之上。AT&T的宽带服务能力主要来自于其早期收购的两家公司,TCI和MediaOne,以及公司现有的一些业务部门。为了收购这两家公司,AT&T付出了很高的成本。与此同时,长途业务价格下降的速度也远远超出了人们的预期,从而致使公司股票价格进一步下跌,并直接抬高了收购成本,大大加重了公司的债务负担。消费者对捆绑式服务的热情并没有AT&T预期的那么高,而且在推广新服务的时候,公司的营销活动也很不到位。整个计划的执行周期也大大超出了人们的预期。最后,政府执法部门对1996年电信条例的执行力度也不够高,许多地区性的电信公司毫无顾忌地进入长途服务市场,这就使得长途运营商在与地区性电信公司的竞争中毫无优势可言。
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级别: 管理员
只看该作者 12 发表于: 2006-01-23
The Buffettology 巴菲特原则

In 1990 and 1991, Wells Fargo, responding to a nationwide recession in the real estate market and an increase in defaults in its real estate loan portfolio, set aside for future loan losses a little more than $1.3 billion, or approximately $25 a share of its $55 per share net worth. When a bank sets aside funds for potential losses, it is merely designating part of its net worth as a reserve for potential future losses. It doesn't mean that those losses have happened nor that they will happen. It means the losses may occur and that the bank is prepared to meet them.

This means that if Wells Fargo lost every penny it had set aside for potential losses--S25 a share--it would still have $30 a share left in net worth. Losses did eventually occur, but they weren't as bad as Wells Fargo had prepared for. In 1991, the losses wiped out most of Wells Fargo's earnings, but the bank was still very solvent and reported a small net profit of $21 million or $0.04 a share.
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级别: 管理员
只看该作者 13 发表于: 2006-01-23
Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

HOW TO BE A PLAYER

The Honor Roll of Investor Champions

Happily, I know a handful of lawmakers who are consistently proinvestor, and you should consider them your staunchest allies. If I had to list the legislators who would make my honor roll of investor champions, Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat, would be one of them. Every time a legislator fought a tough accounting standard, Levin fought back. More than most, he understands the importance of an independent FASB. Well before the Enron disaster, he saw the fiction that corporate financial statements had become: companies technically were in compliance with accounting rules, and yet their financial statements were hiding huge debts and other liabilities. From his position as chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Levin uses his broad authority to pursue pro-investor causes.
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级别: 管理员
只看该作者 14 发表于: 2006-01-23
Anatomy of greed   (解剖贪婪--安然内幕)

Demy Moore and Kevin Pollack are likewise. Skilling seems strangely, quietly relieved. Kaffee simply takes control of the room now.
Kaffee:
Please the court, I suggest the jury be dismissed so that we can move to an immediate Article 39a Session. The witness has rights.
Silence.
My continuing access to e-mail allowed me to see the following internal update:
----Original Message----
From: Enron Office of the Chairman
Sent: Tue 12/18/2001 5:11 PM
To: DL-GA-all_enron_worldwidel
Subject: Organizational Announcement
As things begin to calm dawn somewhat after events of we wanted to update all employees of certain organizational sonnel changes that have occurred recently.
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级别: 管理员
只看该作者 15 发表于: 2006-01-23
Foundation of Effective Thinking

(以下斜体字部分为测试题及答案)

Albert Einstein,a man known for his wisdom, was on target when he said,” The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” Bear in mind that Einstein made that statement more than 50 years ago. At that time, business didn’t move at the frenzied and hectic speed that it does now. Arguably, there are also more problems to solve today, business-related and otherwise, than existed back in Einstein’s day. The first step on the journey to solving these problems has to be made in your head. That is, you must examine and modify the way you think about problems today if you want to achieve success in the future. How effectively do you solve problems and make decisions at work? On the scale below, rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statements. Click done when finished, and then click each box for feedback. Sometimes I take mental shortcuts when thinking about problems, which reduces my effectiveness. I occasionally find it hard to distinguish the real cause of a problem from its symptoms. There are many ways I could improve my problem-solving mind-set. I sometimes fail to think critically about business decisions. It’s hard to overestimate the power of effective thinking. Every thought you have today is in some way determining your future. The goal of this course is to give you the tools necessary to turn yourself into a mental superhero. This change won’t happen overnight in a shazamlike fashion. But with time and effort, you’ll be able to tackle problems you once found almost impossible. In this course, you’ll learn to: think effectively about mental shortcuts overcome biases and flawed assumptions refine your problem-solving mind-set and decision-making style cultivate the right frame of mind.



 
Business Skills Course Library

--Moving from Product Selling to Solution Selling
--Understanding Conflict
--Planning Effective Business Meetings
--Financial Statements and Analysis
--The Negotiation Process
--Delegation Basics
--Communicate for Results
--Professional Assertiveness
--Introduction to Finance
--Foundation of Effective Thinking

本章节内容目录(黑体字为本次听力内容)

Foundation of Effective Thinking

--Course Overview
Overview

--Think Effectively about Mental Shortcuts
Lesson Overview
Preassessment
Rules of Thumb
Thinking Traps
Thinking It Through
Mastery

--Overcoming Biases and False Assumptions
Lesson Overview
Preassessment
Determining Correlation Strength
Attribution-making Biases
Recognizing Bias
Overcoming Bias
Mastery

--Refining Your Mind-set and Decision-making Style
Lesson Overview
Preassessment
What's Your Problem-solving Mind-set
What's Your Decision-making Style?
Mastery

--Cultivating the Right-Frame of Mind
Lesson Overview
Preassessment
Thinking Critically
Improving Your Memory
Forming Effective Thinking Habits
Mastery
附件: skill6-1-23-1.rar (198 K) 下载次数:0
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 16 发表于: 2006-01-23
流行美语第157课声音 (MP3下载) (Real下载)

******
LL: I found out what was bothering Laura. She was upset because the last play she wrote tanked. Everyone criticized it.

LH: 大家都批评她最近写的剧本。为什么?你说她写的那个剧本tanked,那是什么意思?Tank, 不就是打仗用的坦克吗?

LL: No, this has nothing to do with the tank used in war. This "tank" is a verb. When something "tanks" that means that it is a complete failure.

LH: 噢,这个tank 和军用坦克毫无关系。这里说的tank是个动词。意思是完全失败。所有的剧评家都批评Laura的舞台剧。那真是太惨了。可怜的Laura!

LL: Yeah, no wonder she clammed up. I wouldn't want to talk about it if one of my projects tanked, either.

LH: 就是啊,自己的成果被别人这样批评,心情一定不好受。对了,Larry,为什么大家不喜欢Laura的剧本呢?

LL: I have no idea. I haven't seen or read her play, so I have no way of judging her work. Laura is a good playwright, I don't understand why her work tanked.

LH: 嗯,没有看过她的剧本是很难判断。不过,Laura确实是一个很好的剧作家。也许我们应该去看看她写的舞台剧,说不定没有这么糟么。

LL: Even if the play really is terrible, we could at least show our support by going to see it.

LH: 你说的对,不管是好是坏,我们去看就代表我们对Laura的支持。好!我去问她在哪儿可以买票。Larry,那你什么时候有空去看呢?

LL: Let's go this Friday. Originally, I had planned to see a movie this Friday, but the movie I wanted to see tanked, so I might as well go and see Laura's play.

LH: 怎么就那么巧呢?你要看的电影也失败了。好,就这么说定了。我去买票,星期五我们就去看Laura的舞台剧喽!

今天李华学到两个常用语。第一个是clam up,是指一个人不肯把心里的话告诉别人。另一个常用语是to tank,也就是失败的意思。
附件: pa157-2.part1.rar (391 K) 下载次数:0
附件: pa157-2.part2.rar (391 K) 下载次数:0
附件: pa157-2.part3.rar (291 K) 下载次数:0
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 17 发表于: 2006-01-23
阅读\朗读举例

Ebay forced to scrap sellers' fees in China


The move by Ebay Eachnet, which will continue to charge users small fees to list goods for sale on its website, highlights the fierce competition - led by Alibaba.com, part-owned by Yahoo - that the US company faces in a Chinese market it sees as a vital source of growth.

It also contrasts sharply with its efforts to raise fees in other markets. On Wednesday, Ebay said it would raise the fees in the US by 9 per cent for goods worth between $25 and $975.

Ebay China had repeatedly waved aside challenges by Alibaba to scrap its charges, saying in October: "'Free' is not a business model".

However, its Chinese auction website sharply reduced its charges last year and recently began waiving transaction fees for the use of local escrow or PayPal services, which are also free.

From today, Ebay Eachnet will scrap transaction charges, while requiring sellers to settle deals using those payments services.

"Each market is different . . . Chinese people are very price-sensitive, perhaps more than any other market," said Lillian Liu, for Ebay China. "It is very important for us to lower the cost for sellers and to encourage them to offer safe payment."

In China, Ebay's transaction fees were previously charged as a percentage of the value of completed sales, ranging from Rmb10 for a sale worth Rmb500 ($62) to Rmb115 for one worth Rmb20,000.

Its listing charges are much lower - a maximum Rmb3 for items with an initial price of Rmb2,000 or more. The move will add to Ebay's difficulty in maintaining sales growth outside the US.

Year-on-year international revenue growth declined to 35 per cent last quarter from 65 per cent in the final three months of 2004.

Alibaba, which has promised to keep its auction website Taobao.com free for three more years, said Ebay's decision to scrap transaction fees would not help it regain its lead in China.

"Our listings and transactions are growing so fast it looks like they have finally seen the writing on the wall, but it is way too late in the game," said Porter Erisman, Alibaba vice-president for corporate marketing. "The game is over as far as we are concerned."

Alibaba, in which Yahoo has a 40 per cent stake, said its users accounted for about 70 per cent of China's online consumer-to-consumer market in 2005, with transactions worth Rmb3bn in the fourth quarter and registered users up 3.85m to 13.9m.

But analysts say Ebay has struggled to respond to the challenge from Alibaba.
Ebay中国网站取消交易服务费


美国在线拍卖网站Ebay的中国站点将从今日起,取消向所有卖家收取的交易服务费。此举是屈从了来自中国本土竞争对手的市场压力,这些竞争对手以雅虎(Yahoo)投资的阿里巴巴网站(Alibaba.com) 为首,它们向用户提供免费的服务。

Ebay易趣(Ebay Eachnet)的这一举措,凸显了这家美国公司在中国市场面临的激烈竞争,该公司将中国市场视为关键的未来增长来源。Ebay易趣将继续对在该网站陈列商品的用户收取小额费用。

此举也与Ebay在其他市场提高收费的努力形成了鲜明对比。本周三Ebay表示,价格在25美元至975美元之间的商品在美国的交易费将上调9%。


对于阿里巴巴废除收费的挑战,Ebay中国(Ebay China)曾一直不予理睬,并在10月份宣称“免费不是一种商业模式”。

不过,其中国拍卖网站去年曾大幅降低收费标准,最近又开始免收本地安付通(escrow)和贝宝(PayPal)等免费支付服务的交易费。

从今天起,Ebay易趣将免除交易服务费,同时要求卖家使用上述支付服务来结算交易。

“每个市场都是不同的……中国人在价格方面非常敏感,可能比其他任何市场都要敏感,”Ebay中国发言人Lillian Liu表示。“我们认为需要降低卖家交易成本并鼓励他们使用安全的支付手段,这对我们非常重要。”

在中国,Ebay之前按照已完成交易价值的百分比来收取交易服务费,价格从10元人民币(对应价值500元人民币(合62美元)的交易),到115元人民币(对应价值2万元人民币的交易)不等。

其陈列收费也降低了――对起始报价2000元人民币或更高的物品,最高收费为3元人民币。

此举将加大Ebay在
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 18 发表于: 2006-01-23
Not All People With Avian Flu Show Symptoms

Can a person be infected with bird flu and not get sick? Some scientists believe that is increasingly likely, which could mean the disease is far more widespread than previously thought -- though also less prone to kill those who are infected.

There have been 148 confirmed cases of avian flu in humans since the end of 2003, according to the World Health Organization. But some scientists now say hundreds more could have been infected and then recovered from mild cases of flu without anyone knowing. Some may never even have gotten sick. Right now, avian flu is not transmissible from one human to another. But the more people the virus infects, the more likely that is to change, scientists worry.

The latest evidence that bird flu may pass undetected: Two young brothers hospitalized in Turkey earlier this month after testing positive for the H5N1 bird-flu strain showed no symptoms. Last year in Vietnam, the 61-year-old widow of an avian-flu victim, and the 81-year-old grandfather of two avian-flu patients suffered no symptoms despite having antibodies to the virus in their blood, an indication that they had been exposed to the disease. And despite no outward signs of ill health, four people who culled sick birds in Japan and two attendants caring for infected tigers in Thailand also were found to have antibodies to the virus, according to the WHO.


The potential implications for the battle against bird flu are huge. Avian flu is currently believed to have a startlingly high fatality rate. The current official death rate for avian flu, calculated by using the WHO's confirmed number of cases, is about 52%. However, if many people infected with avian flu develop only mild symptoms, or don't get sick at all, there might be less reason to fear that the disease inevitably will kill many millions of people throughout the world.

But a large number of cases that are mild or asymptomatic (exhibiting no signs of the disease) would also increase the likelihood that the virus will mutate into a form that can spread easily between humans, potentially causing a global epidemic, scientists say. Dozens or hundreds of undetected cases would mean "there's that much more opportunity for this virus to learn to be transmissible," says Scott Dowell, head of global disease detection for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. "With every case, we worry about the possibility of the virus acquiring the ability to transmit from human to human."

So far, the mild and asymptomatic cases appear to be few and far between. Blood tests of avian flu patients, health-care workers, and poultry cullers conducted since the first avian-flu outbreak in 1997 have turned up only a handful of such cases, according to an article last September in the New England Journal of Medicine. The CDC also says it has found few instances of mild or asymptomatic bird flu in tests in Thailand. A survey published earlier this month in the Archives of Internal Medicine of Vietnamese villagers in a rural area where there was infected poultry found that 18% had developed mild flu-like ailments. Researchers, however, didn't take blood tests to confirm that the illness was from the H5N1 virus.

Still, epidemiological experience with other infectious diseases suggests that for every known case of avian flu, there could be dozens or hundreds that go undetected, says Dr. Dowell, who helped lead some surveillance programs in Thailand in 2004 and 2005 as director of the CDC's International Emerging Infections Program in Bangkok. While studies so far haven't turned up many cases that would have otherwise slipped under the radar, flu viruses are notorious for changing often, so mild or asymptomatic cases could begin to appear at any time, he says. "What may have been true in 2004 may not be true in the future," he says.

There are precedents for asymptomatic or mild infection with flu viruses from animals: A study published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases this month found that swine farmers, veterinarians, and others with regular exposure to pigs had signs of prior infection with swine flu.

Scientists at the WHO and CDC are moving as quickly as they can to answer the question of whether or not there are large numbers of asymptomatic or mildly ill avian flu sufferers. Regular surveillance, rather than spotty surveys, for mild and asymptomatic cases would help zero in on the extent of an avian-flu outbreak and provide crucial insight into how the virus is transmitted to humans and mutating.

But taking blood samples from thousands of residents living in communities where avian flu has emerged would be expensive, labor-intensive and complicated. Each patient's serum would have to be added to live H5N1 virus, which can be done only by specially trained personnel in a high-security laboratory. Few such facilities exist in countries where avian flu has hit hardest. Health ministries in those countries are also often overwhelmed just trying to identify and isolate anyone with symptoms.

Now, public-health officials are hoping to learn more from studying the bird-flu outbreak in Turkey, which they believe was sparked in part by a cold snap around the start of the year that caused farmers to unknowingly bring infected chickens inside their homes. Twenty people are known to have been infected, including four who died, according to the WHO.

The WHO and Turkish health officials have agreed to take blood samples from poultry cullers, veterinary workers and health-care workers to see if any have been infected, says Guenael Rodier, a communicable-disease expert with the WHO and head of the organization's avian-flu response in Turkey. The studies could get underway as early as next week.

Health officials are also watching the two brothers who tested positive for the disease despite having no symptoms. The pair, four and five years old, were brought in by their worried parents because the boys had contact with infected poultry. They remain in an Ankara hospital and are being treated with the antiviral drug Tamiflu. One of the brothers developed a mild fever and other avian-flu symptoms after the initial test, but the other boy continues to show no signs of the disease, Dr. Rodier says.
感染禽流感的人也可能毫无病症

感染了禽流感的人是否有可能毫无病症呢?一些科学家相信这越来越有可能,这意味著禽流感传播的范围可能要远远超出原来的设想,虽然这些禽流感感染者因而死亡的可能性也大大降低。

世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)的数据显示,全球自2003年年末以来共有148例确诊禽流感病例。但一些科学家认为,可能还有几百人也被感染了,而且由于感染程度轻已在无人知晓的情况下康复。有些感染者甚至可能从未显现出病症。虽然禽流感至今仍不能在人际间传播,科学家们担心随著感染禽流感的人越多,这一点就越有可能发生改变。

证明禽流感可能在毫不知情的情况下发生和消失的最新例证是:本月早些时候,土耳其有两个小兄弟,在检测出H5N1禽流感病毒阳性后,并没有相应病症显现。去年在越南,一名死于禽流感的患者其61岁的寡妇,以及两个死于禽流感的患者其81岁的祖父都没有显现出病症,而他们的血液中却检测出了禽流感病毒抗体,这说明他们曾感染过这种病毒。世界卫生组织也公布过,日本4个曾处理过病禽的人员以及泰国两个照看过病虎的人员都没有病症显现,但检测也发现了体内的病毒抗体。

更多信息


? 达菲真的有效吗?
? 伪劣禽流感疫苗混入中国市场

? 国际社会承诺捐助19亿美元禽流感防控资金
抗击禽流感之役可能非常复杂。禽流感的死亡率据信是出奇的高。根据世界卫生组织核实的人感染禽流感死亡数据,禽流感的官方死亡率为52%左右。但如果许多考虑到许多人曾感染禽流感,但只有轻微症状或毫无病症,或许我们就不必那么担心这种病将不可避免地在全球夺去几百万人的生命。

但科学家们表示,如果有许多人都只是轻微感染或毫无病症,就会加大病毒变异的可能性,导致其最终具有人际间传播力,并可能引发全球的疫情大流行。美国疾病防控中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的全球疾病监测主管多维尔(Scott Dowell)表示,如果有几十例或几百例未被官方发现的感染病例,就说明这种病毒变异成可人际间传播的可能性大大上升了。

迄今为止,轻微感染和感染后无病症显现的例子看来还是很少的。《New England Journal of Medicine》去年9月的一篇文章称,自从1997年首例禽流感疫情爆发以来,对禽流感患者、医护人员以及禽类拣杀人员的血液检测发现了屈指可数的几例此类病例。美国疾病防控中心也表示,在泰国的检测中发现有几例此类情况。本月早些时候,Archives of Internal Medicine of Vietnamese刊登的一项农村地区调查发现,在有家禽感染的一个农村地区,被调查的禽类有18%有轻微的类似于感冒的症状。但研究人员并没有进行血液测试证实此类病症是因H5N1病毒而起。

2004年和2005年在泰国曼谷帮助领导了一些流行病监测项目的多维尔称,其他传染性疾病的流行性病学经验也说明,每一个已知的禽流感病例都意味著可能有几十例或几百例的感染病例未被发现。虽然至今的研究并没有发现未被官方统计的病例数量很多,但流感病毒向来有不断变异的特性,因此多维尔说,任何时候都可能出现症状轻微或无病症的禽流感感染病例。

其他源自动物的流感病毒造成人类轻微感染或无病症显现的先例并非没有:学术刊物《Clinical Infectious Diseases》本月刊登的一项研究发现养猪者、兽医以及其他经常与猪接触的人有曾感染猪流感的迹象。

世界卫生组织和美国疾病防控中心的科学家们正在尽快行动,希望确定轻微感染或感染但无病症显现病例的数量究竟是否有很多。对轻微感染或无病症显现的病例进行定期监测,而非抽样调查,有助于确定禽流感疫情爆发的规模,并为研究病毒传播和变异的方式提供重要数据。

但对禽流感疫情出现的社区中数千名居民进行血液采样可能费钱又费力。因为将每位患者的血清加入活的H5N1病毒,而病毒的培养只能由经过特殊培训的专业人士在高度安全的实验室内完成。在那些禽流感疫情最严重的国家中此类实验室的数量很少。这些国家的卫生部门往往为了发现和隔离有病症的患者就已经疲于奔命了。

如今,公共卫生官员们希望能从土耳其禽流感疫情的研究中获取更多信息,他们认为该次疫情的爆发一定程度上是因为年初左右的一次寒流来袭,农民们在不知情的情况下将已感染了禽流感的鸡带到了人居住的室内。世界卫生组织的数据显示,已知有20人受感染,其中4人已死亡。

世界卫生组织的传染病专家罗迪尔(Guenael Rodier)表示,世界卫生组织和土耳其的卫生官员们已同意对禽类拣杀人员、兽医工作者以及医护人员进行血液检测,看是否有人已被感染。罗迪尔也是世界卫生组织土耳其禽流感应对项目的主管。此项血液检测计划最早可能于下周开始。

卫生官员们也在对两个禽流感检测阳性、但无病症显现的两兄弟进行观察。这两个分别4岁和5岁的男孩是被心急如焚的父母送进医院的,因为他们曾和病禽接触。目前,两个小男孩仍在安卡拉一家医院观察,并服用了抗病毒药物达菲(Tamiflu)。据罗迪尔称,其中一个男孩在最初检测后曾有低烧等禽流感病症,但另一个孩子到目前依然没有任何病症。

(back)Davos Weighs New Forum To Boost China's Presence


ZURICH
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 19 发表于: 2006-01-23
Online shopping sparkles for retailers


"Online shopping really arrived last year," said James Roper, chief executive of the Interactive Media in Retail Group, the industry body for the UK's e-tailers.

"Consumers have given the retail sector a clear message that the internet is a primary way that they want to shop. This is a bit of a wake-up call to traditional retailers."

Figures released by the IMRG today show a 50 per cent increase in spending in the 10 weeks to Christmas, the fastest rate to date for online sales.

Internet sales are now estimated to account for9 per cent of all UK retail spending.

This is almost double the 5 per cent market share that catalogue shopping has traditionally commanded and is a strong indicator thate-tailers are winning sales away from the high street.

Strong sales growth at Play.com, the online entertainment retailer, and the UK arm of Amazon - which said trading was up 20 per cent from last year - was in sharp contrast with a fall in sales at high-street music retailer HMV and the Ottakar's book shop chain.

Retailers with a combined internet and high street offering fared better. John Lewis reported a 76 per cent year-on-year increase in sales in November and December, aided by a 60 per cent increase in visits tothe johnlewis.com website. The website took more than £100m in sales over the year, boosted by sales of Apple's iPod music player. Argos reported a 37 per cent increase in internet sales, contributing 6 per cent to overall revenue.

Tesco, the supermarket chain, said its online business had a record year, delivering more than 1m orders in the four weeks to Christmas, while J Sainsbury said its internet home delivery service grew 28 per cent last year. Boots, the health and beauty retailer, said internet sales were up 44 per cent in the third quarter, while Carphone Warehouse reported a 40 per cent increase in online revenues.

Many industry observers put the growth of online shopping down to the rapid take-up of broadband internet lines.

According to figures from Point Topic, the broadband research company, the number of lines grew by about 60 per cent to 9.8m at the end of 2005, giving the country the highest number of broadband lines in western Europe.

More than 66 per cent of homes have an internet connection, according to figures from Ofcom, the telecommunications regulator, and Point Topic estimates that more than 37 per cent of homes have broadband.

However, they also believe that shoppers have simply become more comfortable with using the internet for purchases and are finding it easier to use increasingly sophisticated online stores.

Stuart Rowe, managing director of Play.com, said: "People are finding the experience of online shopping more comfortable now broadband is so much faster. You can easily check prices and the websites are getting very good. Internet retailers are taking customer service very seriously and going that extra mile to give shoppers comfort."

Play.com, for example, included a customer service helpline number on its site for the first time this year.

Christmas internet sales continued to be dominated by consumer electronics, which accounted for around 13 per cent of internet sales.

Microsoft's Xbox 360 games console, which was launched just before Christmas but was difficult to find on the high street because of delivery shortages, was one of the most searched-for items, according to Kelkoo, the price comparison site.

Sony's PlayStation Portable was in high demand. One retailer listed on Kelkoo was reported to have sold its stock of 300 PSP consoles in just 10 minutes.

"People were using the internet to search for things that were difficult to find on the high street," said Glen Drury, managing director of Kelkoo.

However, many internet retailers reported a broadening of focus, with online shoppers branching out to goods such as clothing and drinks as well as electronic gadgets. Online sales of clothing, footwear and accessories rose 24 per cent in 2005 and now account for more than 7 per cent of online transactions by value.

Meanwhile, sales of beer, wine and spirits, rose 26 per cent to £218m.

The peak for pre-Christmas internet sales came in the week commencing December 5, when £653m was spent online.
英国消费者热衷网上购物


去年圣诞节,英国网上购物增速最快。在圣诞节前10周里,购物者在网上支出近50亿英镑,使英国人成为欧洲最热衷网上购物的消费者。

这比2004年的圣诞消费增长了近50%,2004年金额达33.3亿英镑。现在,网上购物占零售支出总额的约9%,即每11英镑就有1英镑用在网上购物上。

英国互动媒体零售集团(Interactive Media in Retail Group)是电子零售商的行业组织,该组织今天公布的数据显示,有约2400万人在网上购买了圣诞礼物,人均消费额达208英镑。网上购物的迅速增长与整体零售业的不景气形成对比,相比之下,零售业去年12月的同比销售额仅增长2.6%,11月时增长了0.8%。

 

(back)Tokyo's Bulls Stay in the Ring


For many global investors, this week's shakeout in the Tokyo stock market was almost welcome.

A rush of sell orders forced the Tokyo Stock Exchange to shorten its sessions Wednesday and yesterday. This mass selling, sparked by scandal surrounding the Japanese Internet company Livedoor, sent the blue-chip Nikkei Stock Average skidding nearly 7% in three days, though there was a partial rebound yesterday that continued early Friday, Tokyo time.

Japan's bears seized on these events as an early sign that the market was due for another painful correction. But the Nikkei's 2.3% gain yesterday was testimony to what many international fund managers think: Tokyo remains the most attractive of the developed world's stock markets. After last year's 40% stock-market gain, these investors say, the market is due for a consolidation period -- not major decline -- and that once prices come down a bit, they will be right back in.


Some money managers thought this week's selloff offered enough of an opening. "This really has nothing to do with positive things going on in Japan," says Chip Perrone, senior international equity analyst at DuPont Capital Management in Wilmington, Del. He says his firm bought shares in Japanese consumer-electronics companies Wednesday. The technological glitch that closed the market early "doesn't affect the fundamentals of these companies," he says.

Kathy Matsui, Goldman Sachs chief strategist in Japan, sent out a client note yesterday arguing that these corporate fundamentals remain in place and that the market experienced a "healthy correction."

This confidence in Japanese stocks among market professionals offers a sharp contrast to the other major participants in the Tokyo market last year: day traders. The big rally attracted an army of young, computer-savvy individual investors who bet on the upstart technology companies that were listed on Tokyo's Mothers Index and who may be too shell-shocked by this week's meltdown to return soon.

While the Nikkei is still less than half its peak level of 1989, the Mothers Index -- the market of high-growth and emerging stocks -- hit an all-time high Monday before crashing 22% in the two days following news that Livedoor may have concealed massive losses.

Among those down on Japan is Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. He says Tokyo looks like a stock-market bubble. "One may properly wonder if the bubble is now bursting," he wrote in a client report this week.

Despite Japan's cleanup of nonperforming loans, Mr. Weinberg worries that the national debt is getting precariously high at 170% of gross domestic product -- and rising. If the government fails to rein in this debt, he writes, "debt service will crowd out all other economic activity. Prosperity will atrophy." He predicts that as foreign investors begin to lose faith in the economic recovery, the Nikkei will suffer more of a sickly than healthy correction.

Many other economists, however, tend to back the case for a longer-term market rally. They say that Japanese companies, and in particular the banks, are in better shape than they have been for years. Colin Asher, an economist at Nomura Securities in London, says companies have large cash positions that are leading to wage increases and the hiring of full-time workers, rather than part-time employees. In turn, these actions are boosting consumer sentiment, he says.

At the same time, bullish sentiment toward the yen makes investing in Japan an easy call, some say. If the yen rallies, any returns in Japanese stocks are enhanced when translated back into dollars. With the dollar rising 15% against the yen in 2005, currency analysts see the trend reversing by the second half of this year. Citigroup and UBS, for instance, forecast the dollar to be around 100 yen a year from now, about a 13% decline for the U.S. currency from current levels.

The latest Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers shows nearly two of every three believe the yen is undervalued. In terms of sentiment favoring a particular currency, "we haven't seen anything like that before" in the survey, says David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch.

Carlos Asilis, a portfolio manager for the hedge fund Vega Plus Capital Partners, thinks Japanese stocks will outperform those in the U.S. and Europe this year. He says that, with Japan's economy likely to accelerate in 2006, there is a greater chance for positive earnings surprises in Tokyo.

While 2005 was a record year for foreign net purchases of Japanese stocks, Mr. Asilis expects that domestic investors could play a more prominent role this year and the years after that. Although this week's volatility hit individual day traders particularly hard, he thinks Japanese institutional investors and households will turn more positive on the stock market as they begin to believe in the economic recovery.

In San Diego, Vincent Willyard says he already is thinking about re-entering the Tokyo market. The fund manager for Nicholas Applegate Capital Management watched from the sidelines this week but is betting that after a retreat of 10% or so, Japanese stocks will have another positive year. "There is a re-rating story going on because of Japan's structural improvements," he says.

As a way to play a Japanese economic rebound, he likes consumer-oriented companies like electronics retailer Yamada Denki Co. He also is bullish on industrial companies like Komatsu, a maker of heavy machinery such as tractors and bulldozers.
东京股市仍为众多投资者所看好


对许多全球投资者来说,本周东京股市的动荡是件令人高兴的事情。

大量卖单导致东京股市周三和周四连续两天缩短了交易时间。受日本网络公司活力门(Livedoor)丑闻的打击,日经平均指数在三个交易日里下跌了近7%,但周四和东京时间周五早盘日本股市有所反弹。

看跌日本股市的投资者将此视为市场将再次回调的先兆。但日经指数周四上涨2.3%证实了许多国际基金经理的想法:东京股市仍然是发达国家股市中最具吸引力的一个。这些投资者表示,在日本股市去年上涨了40%之后,市场需要一个盘整时期,但不是大幅下跌,一旦价格有所回调,很快就会再度上扬。

部分基金经理认为,本周的下跌带来了难得的机会。特拉华州DuPont Capital Management的高级国际股票分析师奇普?佩罗内(Chip Perrone)说,日本市场的良好表现不会受到任何影响。他表示,他的机构周三买进了日本消费电子产品公司的股票。他还说,导致提前休市的技术问题不会影响这些公司的基本面。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)驻日本首席策略师Kathy Matsui在周四发给客户的报告中表示,这些公司的基本面并无变化,市场经历了“良性的调整。”

市场专业人士对日本股市的信心同去年日本股市的主要参与者:短线交易员形成了鲜明对比。日本股市大幅的上扬曾吸引了众多熟悉电脑的年轻个人投资者,他们将资金投向在东京创业板市场上市的新兴科技公司。本周这样的大起大落下挫可能对他们造成严重冲击,短期内也许不会重回市场。

尽管日经指数仍不到1989年高点的一半,但创业板指数本周一创出了历史高点,但其后两个交易日因活力门隐瞒巨额亏损的丑闻而暴跌22%。

纽约州High Frequency Economics的首席经济学家卡尔?韦恩伯格(Carl Weinberg)是看跌日本股市的人之一。他说东京股市已经出现了泡沫。韦恩伯格在本周发给客户的研究报告中写道,人们有理由怀疑泡沫是否正在破裂。

尽管日本清理了不良贷款,韦恩伯格仍对日本债务总额已经达到国内生产总值的170%、并还在继续增加表示担忧。他写道,如果政府无法控制这些债务,债务将给其他所有经济活动带来不利影响。繁荣局面就被断送。他预计,随著海外投资者开始对日本经济复苏丧失信心,日经指数的跌幅将超过良性的调整。

不过,许多经济学家支持市场将会中长期反弹的观点。他们认为,日本经济,尤其是银行的状况要好于前些年。野村证券公司(Nomura Securities)的经济学家科林?阿谢尔(Colin Asher)说,拥有大量现金的公司会给员工加薪,聘用全职员工而不是兼职人员。这又会反过来提高消费者信心。

部分分析师还表示,市场看涨日圆也使得投资日本股市深具吸引力。如果日圆上涨,投资日本股市的收益在兑换成美元后会得到提升。外汇分析师认为,美元兑日圆汇率在2005年上涨了15%,这一趋势将在今年下半年出现反转。比如,花旗(Citigroup)和瑞银(UBS)预计,美元兑日圆汇率将在12个月内达到100日圆左右,较目前水平下跌约13%。

美林(Merrill Lynch)对全球基金经理的最新调查显示,有接近三分之二的人认为日圆被低估。美林首席全球投资策略师大卫?鲍尔斯(David Bowers)说,就看好某种货币的人气而言,在以前的调查中还从未发现类似情况。

对冲基金Vega Plus Capital Partners的投资组合经理卡洛斯?阿西历斯(Carlos Asilis)认为,日本股市今年的表现将会超过美国和欧洲股市。他说,随著日本经济2006年可能加速增长,在东京股市上市的日本公司业绩令人惊喜的可能性很大。

尽管2005年海外净购买日本股票的数量创出新高,但阿西历斯预计,今年以及此后几年里国内投资者将发挥更显著的作用。虽然本周的动荡对个别短线交易员的打击尤其惨重,但他认为由于日本机构投资者和家庭开始相信经济正在走向复苏,他们会对股市持更为积极的态度。

圣地牙哥的文森特?威尔亚德(Vincent Willyard)表示,他正在考虑重返东京股市。这位Nicholas Applegate Capital Management的基金经理本周一直持观望立场,但他认为在回调10%左右后,日本股市今年仍将上涨。他说,由于日本的结构化改善,东京股市会再上一层楼。

为了搭上日本经济复苏的快车,他认为应选择面向消费者的公司,如零售商Yamada Denki Co.。他还看好小松(Komatsu)这样的工业公司。小松主要制造拖拉机和推土机等重型机械。


(back)Dollar Drops on News From Iran, Rising Oil Prices, Falling Stocks


Laurence Norman The dollar fell Friday, pushing lower initially on news from Iran that it plans to pull its foreign exchange reserves from European banks, then extending the move late in the day amid rising oil prices and a sharp drop in U.S. stocks.

Still, most analysts said that the dollar remains confined in the middle of a tight range. Trading has been choppy, and many speculative investors are getting frustrated waiting for the dollar to break the ranges.


The situation has been typified by the tight confines in which the euro has traded since the beginning of January, roughly between $1.20 and $1.22. Friday, traders made attempts to break out on both sides of that range, with the euro trading as low as $1.214 overnight and as high as $1.2141 late in the session, according to EBS.

Among the biggest gainers versus the dollar Friday was the pound. The move started after the U.K. reported stronger-than-expected December retail sales. Some suggested the data might help dissuade the Bank of England from cutting interest rates when it meets in February.

The dollar also fell against the Swiss franc, which was helped by escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, which added to the general risk aversion among investors.

In late New York trading, the euro was at $1.2137, up from $1.2097 late Thursday. The dollar was at 1.2763 Swiss francs from 1.2840 Swiss francs, and at 115.26 yen, down from 115.43 yen. The pound climbed to $1.7712 from $1.7585. The euro was at 139.89 yen from 139.63 yen.

As often happens, rising oil prices also hit the yen, capping its gains because the market has traditionally perceived Japan to be most vulnerable to higher energy costs. U.S. stocks, however, were also a victim of rising crude.

"Oil prices have continued to move higher and equities have apparently taken it badly," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist at UBS in Stamford, Conn.

Mr. Katzive said the overarching theme was that rising oil prices, falling stocks and heightened global political tensions were increasing the attraction of what he called the "safety" currencies, in particular the euro and the Swiss franc.

Mr. Katzive said investors were particularly jittery after a sharp decline in Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index earlier in the week turned the focus on a rise in global risk aversion.

David Durrant, chief strategist for fixed income at Julius Baer investment management in New York, said the move may have been exaggerated by the "Friday afternoon" effect when low volumes and position adjusting ahead of the weekend can easily add to market choppiness.

Meanwhile, Sweden's Riksbank kicked off its monetary tightening cycle Friday, increasing interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 1.75%, which helped lift the Swedish krona in trading against the euro and dollar Friday.
美元走软,受油价、伊朗和股市诸因素拖累


纽约汇市周五美元走软,最初是受到有关伊朗准备将外汇储备撤离欧洲银行的消息打击,但之后的跌势则应该主要归咎于油价的攀升和美国股市的大幅下挫。

不过大部分分析师仍然认为美元将会维持窄幅波动态势。美元在今日市场中起伏较大,许多投机商在等待美元突破波动区间时感到失望。

这种情况自1月初欧元兑美元汇率波动范围形成于1.20-1.22美元的狭窄区间以来就变得很典型。周五,交易员们曾试图突破上述区间的两端,欧元前夜曾下探至1.2140美元的低点,而尾盘时达到的盘中高点仅为1.2141美元,据EBS数据显示。

美元在纽约汇市周五后市走低是由美国股市的大幅下跌以及油价飙升所引发。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌超过210点,一举抹去了该指数自年初以来积累的涨幅。与此同时,近月交割的原油期货合约又重新站上每桶68美元以上的高位,接近历史高点,并再次引发市场对其可能造成的经济影响的担忧。

周五兑美元涨幅最大的是英镑。英镑的上涨始于英国政府公布强于预期的12月份零售额之后。一些分析人士认为这一数据可能有助于英国央行(Bank of England)打消在2月份政策会议上降息的念头。

此外,美元兑瑞士法郎亦走软,主要是受到伊朗核问题再度趋于紧张的影响。分析师称,伊朗当局的声明刺激了市场上避险投资的增加,从而促使瑞士法郎兑各主要货币全线走强。

伊朗央行周五表示,该行正在将外汇储备转移出欧洲的银行,以防因核问题而遭到联合国制裁。伊朗央行行长Ebrahim Sheibani告诉记者称,伊朗已开始从欧洲银行撤出外汇储备,并将资金转移至匿名地点,据伊朗半官方的Iranian Students News Agency报导。

纽约汇市尾盘,欧元兑1.2137美元,高于周四尾盘的1.2097美元。美元兑1.2760瑞士法郎,低于周四的1.2840瑞士法郎;美元兑115.26日圆,低于周四尾盘的115.43日圆。英镑兑美元则从周四尾盘的1.7585美元升至1.7710美元;欧元兑139.92日圆,高于周四的139.63日圆。

如往常那样,油价上涨还打击了日圆,抑制了日圆的涨势,因为市场通常认为日本最容易受到能源成本上升的打击。然而,美国股市也是原油价格上涨的受害者。

瑞银(UBS)驻斯坦福的外汇策略师Daniel Katzive称,油价继续上涨,而股市显然受到严重打击。

Katzive称,市场主要话题是油价上涨、股价下跌以及全球政治紧张局势提高了被他称为“安全”货币的吸引力,尤其是欧元和瑞士法郎。

Katzive称,在基准日经225指数本周早些时候大幅下跌之后投资者尤为不安,使得市场焦点转向全球避险需求上升。

Julius Baer资产管理公司驻纽约的首席固定收益策略师David Durrant称,市场的波动可能因“周五下午”效应而被夸大,“周五下午”效应是指周末前的成交低迷和头寸调整趋势很容易加大市场的波动。

前夜,一些重要事件没有给市场带来太大影响。

这些事件包括,日本央行(Bank of Japan)上调了对经济的评估,以及该行认为消费者价格将继续上涨,这表明该行向取消极度宽松的货币政策更进了一步。

日本央行在月度经济报告中称,日本经济在稳步复苏,并对12月份评估加上了“稳步”这一措辞,这是该行自去年9月份以来首次在月度经济报告中上调经济评估。

这也是自20世纪90年度初经济泡沫破灭以来,日本央行首次用“稳步”来描述日本经济状况,并表明,该行对产出、薪酬以及个人支出上升的信心提高。


(back)For Oil-Rich Brides, Caviar, Crystal, And 1,000 Guests

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- When Noor Al-Roomi planned her son's recent wedding, she knew she was up against tough competition from many other big weddings. "Everyone wants to hold a more impressive wedding than the family before," says Ms. Al-Roomi.

She managed to hold her own. Arrangements included bringing in Beluga caviar from the Caspian, tablecloths from Switzerland, a cake chef from France and flowers from Holland. Guests received as favors gold-rimmed crystal bowls filled with Belgian chocolates. "You don't want to have anything that is easily found on the local market. It has to be exclusive," she explains. The groom's family spent $250,000 on the six-hour affair.

The Al-Roomi nuptials are part of a wedding industry that is resurgent in the Persian Gulf economic boom fed by higher oil prices.


When oil prices fell in the 1980s and 1990s, fewer families in the region could spring for the extravagant weddings their social set had come to expect. Unable to shoulder the cost of a properly ostentatious wedding, couples put off marrying.

The average number of marriages in the United Arab Emirates dropped by one-quarter between the mid-1980s and the end of the 1990s. In Kuwait, the number fell about 15% in that same period, as it did in Bahrain, according to the Central Statistics Organization.

Given the rapidly growing populations and the increasing number of men and women reaching "marriageable age," which generally means the early 20s, Persian Gulf rulers became concerned that lower marriage rates could eventually translate into slower population growth. Some rulers, who are essentially the heads of large extended families, worried that more of their young men would marry foreigners in order to forgo fancy weddings and save money.

In the UAE, the late president Sheik Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan set up a marriage fund, offering grants to male citizens to encourage them to marry local women. "In the '90s, a growing number of UAE women were remaining unmarried," fretted an official UAE report on social development. Established in 1994, the fund offered grants of about $20,000 to help young men meet wedding costs. The sheik himself then footed the bill for group ceremonies in which dozens of young couples would marry. Because the government viewed extravagant weddings as a deterrent to men marrying local women, it announced that families holding such events would be subject to fines of up to $136,000 or even prison sentences. But it is unclear whether any cases have ever been brought, and it appears today that the threat has not curbed lavish weddings.

Times have changed with the price of oil. UAE officials say marriage rates have climbed steadily since 2003. The past two years have seen 20% annual increases in marriages. Meanwhile, mass weddings have tailed off since their peak in 1999.

Wedding planners are now putting on the dog. "I have mothers coming to me requesting a particular crystal glass that they saw at a royal ball in London. Or they want a design for a gift box that no one would have ever seen before. Or they want edible-gold-coated almonds," says wedding planner Dina Al-Rashad, who is based in Kuwait.

For Ms. Al-Rashad this has meant traveling the globe looking for the perfect glass, or fork, or ribbon or party favor.

The wedding celebration for Hissa Khalaf, a 24-year-old bride from a wealthy family, played out over three days recently in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. On the first evening there was a henna party -- a sort of bridal shower. More than 300 girls gathered in a ballroom to dance, dine and have their bodies decorated with temporary henna tattoos expertly placed by a team of Sudanese henna artists flown in from Egypt, according to Hala Al-Abbar, a cousin of the bride. Guests took home finely engraved silver boxes, she says.

The following day, close to 800 guests gathered at a sprawling beach mansion for a party that lasted from noon until well past midnight. The bride changed her outfit just about every hour, and the buffet, which spanned 25 tables, was changed five times, says Ms. Al-Abbar. Guests received gold coins as souvenirs. "They spent as much on that day as most couples spend on a wedding night. More," says Ms. Al-Abbar.

The main event on the following night had about 1,000 guests -- about 1,400 had been invited -- filling the mansion and its grounds.

The groom was carried in on a litter by men in turbans. The bride followed on her own more delicate gold throne, artificial smoke rising from below to give her an ethereal appearance. From above, glitter rained down on her while guests tossed gold coins and turquoise stones, provided on tables as good-luck omens. That night's party favor: a cut-crystal box filled with almonds and containing a large gold coin embossed with the couple's names and a Sura, or verse, from the Quran.

For the wedding party, a European orchestra and a disc jockey from Spain were flown in. Other weddings have featured Egyptian pop stars, at up to $40,000 for brief appearances. For a traditional touch, sprawling Arabian desert affairs are held in tents that rent for as much as about $25,000.

Hoteliers say the ceremonies are their most reliable business, and now bring in at least half of annual catering revenue for resorts such as the Ritz-Carlton, Dubai, according to officials at the hotel.

The London-based Diamond Trading Co. recently set up shop in Dubai, and a chunk of its business comes from weddings. "Arab nationals are passionate about diamonds, and the boom makes this the fourth largest market in the world," says Nicholas Graham-Smith, DTC's regional director. "The UAE is at the forefront of it all."

While the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs says the percentage of local men marrying foreigners has dropped, rulers still have qualms about the lavish affairs. They've asked locals to curb spending. Parents, too, are worrying. In the poorer and more conservative neighboring Emirate of Fujairah, the Parents Council of a local school recently urged the Marriage Fund to continue to support mass weddings and to enforce penalties against those who fritter away their money.

"This spending trend will make young men feel they can't get married to locals, which will mean they'll marry foreigners, which we know leads to divorce. Or they'll marry an Emirati and end up in very large debt," says Maryam Eissa, the mother of four young children. Fujairah's Sheik Abdullah Al-Sharqi has asked the Marriage Fund to take measures to reverse the trend.
奢华婚宴重现波斯湾

Noor Al-Roomi为儿子筹办最近这次婚礼的时候,就知道自己要同几场大型婚礼展开激烈竞争了。“每个人都希望自己的婚礼能给人留下深刻的印象,超过家里以前操办的任何一场,”她说。

她还是设法筹办了一场盛大的婚礼:Beluga鱼子酱从里海运来、桌布来自瑞士、从法国聘请了专做蛋糕的大厨、鲜花来自荷兰。宾客们捧著镶金边的水晶碗,里面盛满了比利时巧克力。“才不会用当地就能买到的东西呢,用具必须独一无二,”她解释说。新郎的家族为这场持续了6个小时的盛宴花费了250,000美元。

Al-Roomi家的这场婚宴只是整个波斯湾方兴未艾的婚礼产业的一小部分。随著油价的节节攀升,波斯湾经济也开始蓬勃发展,婚礼也不例外。

八、九十年代油价下滑之际,波斯湾地区几乎没有哪个家族能筹备得起符合他们社会地位的婚礼。难以负担的豪华婚礼费用迫使很多年轻人推迟结婚。

Central Statistics Organization的数据显示,八十年代中期到九十年代末,阿拉伯联合酋长国的结婚人数减少了四分之一,科威特和巴林各减少了约15%。

随著人口数量的激增,达到适婚年龄的男男女女也越来越多。波斯湾各国各部落的掌权者开始担心,低结婚率会最终演变成低人口增长率。有些掌权的人本来就是一个庞大家族的首领,他们担心自己家族中的年轻男子会越来越多地赢取外国女人,以逃避奢华的婚礼,好节省钱财。

阿联酋总统哈利法?本?扎耶德?阿勒纳哈扬(Sheik Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan)设立了一个婚姻基金,鼓励男性公民迎娶本国女性。“90年代,未婚的阿联酋女性日渐增多,”一份调查社会发展形势的官方报告称。这项基金成立于1994年,申请人可以得到大约20,000美元的婚礼赞助。总统还自掏腰包赞助了不少集体婚礼。因为政府认为豪华婚礼是阻止本国男女青年成婚的障碍,就宣布大操大办的家庭会被处以最高136,000美元的罚款,甚至被判入狱。但是,现在还不清楚有没有人因此被起诉,而且就眼下的形势来看,这种威胁并没有阻止豪华婚礼的上演。

油价的变动带来了时代的变迁。阿联酋官员表示,2003年以来该国结婚率稳步攀升,最近这两年的年增幅甚至高达20%。此外,集体婚礼的热潮从1999年以后就逐渐消退了。

科威特的婚礼策划师Dina Al-Rashad说,“不断有新人的妈妈来找我,要我帮忙找到一种他们在伦敦皇家舞会上看到的别致的水晶杯,要一款从没见过的专门设计的礼品盒,要可食用的镀金杏仁……”

对Al-Rashad来说,这就意味著走遍世界,去寻找称心如意的杯子、叉子、彩带,等等。

24岁的新娘Hissa Khalaf出身豪门,她的婚礼在阿拉伯联合酋长国的阿布扎比总共进行了三天。第一天晚上举行的是指甲花派对(henna party)──类似于新娘送礼派对。300多名女孩子在舞池中跳舞、用餐,专业纹身师用指甲花在她们的身体上纹出可擦洗的图案,新娘的堂姐妹Hala Al-Abbar说,这些纹身师是专门从埃及请来的。宾客们都获得了雕刻精美的银制礼盒。

第二天,近800名客人在连排沙滩别墅中从中午狂欢到午夜。Al-Abbar说,新娘的服装几乎每小时换一次,摆满25张桌子的自助餐共撤换了五次。宾客们收到了金币作为纪念。Al-Abbar说,“他们当天的花费相当于大多数新人结婚当晚的花销,甚至更多。”

在接下来的那个夜晚举行的主要活动中,近1,000名客人把别墅内外挤得满满的──他们共邀请了1,400名客人。

新郎戴著包头巾坐轿进来了,新娘紧随其后,乘坐著更精美的金色座椅,人们点起的缕缕青烟从她的背后升腾起来,这样看起来她像是仙女下凡。从上方落下了亮闪闪的喷雪,而来宾则向新娘投掷象征好运的金币和绿宝石。晚会的礼物是:一个水晶盒子,里面装满杏仁,还有一枚写有新人名字和可兰经中诗句的大金币。

欧洲管弦乐队和来自西班牙的DJ在婚礼派对上大显身手。有的婚礼还曾邀请埃及流行明星助阵,他们的出场费最高达4万美元。如果想有个传统婚礼,那么可以租帐篷在广袤的阿拉伯沙漠上举行派对,帐篷的租金高达25,000美元。

饭店的经营者表示,婚礼是他们最可靠的业务来源,对于迪拜等度假胜地来说,婚礼至少可以占到他们餐饮业年收入的一半。

伦敦的Diamond Trading Co.最近在迪拜开设了店铺,业务大部分也来自结婚典礼。公司地区负责人Nicholas Graham-Smith说,“阿拉伯人对钻石情有独锺,这个市场的繁荣使它成为了世界上第四大的钻石市场。阿拉伯联合酋长国又是阿拉伯国家中最爱钻石的。”

虽然劳动和社会事务部(Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs)表示,当地男性与外国女性结婚的情况减少了,但当局仍然对婚礼的奢侈忧心忡忡。他们要求当地人节俭开支。新人的父母也不无担心。在稍显贫穷和保守的近邻富查伊拉,最近当地学校的家长委员会要求结婚基金会(Marriage Fund)继续扶持集体婚礼并对那些浪费钱财的新人予以惩罚。

四个孩子的母亲Maryam Eissa说,“这种消费潮流会让年轻男子不敢娶当地女子,也就是说他们会和外国人结婚,而这意味著离婚。或者他们会负债累累地娶个当地女子。富查伊拉的酋长Abdullah Al-Sharqi已经要求结婚基金会采取措施改变这种潮流。
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