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朗读练习作业

级别: 管理员
只看该作者 310 发表于: 2005-12-29
Coal stock --- John Bridges
>> welcome back. with crude oil prices up 55% in the last 12 months, some investors have begun to take a look at other forms of energy which may have become more attractive in comparison to crude. take a look at one company. peabody energy, largest u.s. coal producer. share vs. rallied 74% in the last 12 months. second quarter sales were up by a third from the year before. console energy reported second quarter profrts that more than doubled from the year ago. its stock is up 74% as you can see in the last year. joining me with more on the prospects for coal in the light of record oil prices is john bridges. he follows peabody and console. comes to us from his company’s trading floor. thank you for being on the program. give us a sense of whether coal is a more―whether coal stocks are a more attractive investment in light of higher oil prices.

>> oil has a function here but the biggest drivers of this move we have seen in coal has been the really tight coal market within the u.s. what has happened is coal reserves have fallen in the east particularly in west virginia, permitting difficulties of limited access to the reserves that remain. and then the booming chinese economy, in particular demand for coal for steel manufacturers has siphoned off a portion of coal that would otherwise come into the market . that has pushed prices up. so the immediate driver really hasn’t been oil. it’s helped but it is primary a really tight u.s. supply situation.

>> i want to bring our viewers a look into the bloomberg terminal. john, i know you can’t see it. i will explain what i’m showing. you know the numbers quite well. very have three lines on the chart. i want to draw attention to the% pright side. the last if you months. we have the yellow line which is right here. that is crude oil prices that you see moving much higher, up to nearly $47 or more than $47 a barrel in the last couple of months. the white line here we have is coal prices, also moving up precipitously from around $50 to around $60 in the last couple of months. meanwhile, the red line moving down is natural gas. john, isn’t it the case that coal competes mostly with natural gas in terms of electricity production for u.s. utilities and with natural gas getting cheaper and coal getting more, that seems to be a win for coal stocks, right?

>> yes. the correlation is not directly between oil and coal. the correlation is indirectly oil competes with distolate.

>> if electric utility is going to burn something to make electricity for people’s homes, it will usually be natural gas or coal. we have natural gas prices moving down and coal prices moving up. if you are a coal producer, what does that mean?

>> i think the key thing is that gas is coming down but off a very high level. there was something like a break even when the gas price was $3. we now have a situation where it’s come down to $5. it’s still very expensive in terms of the cost of generating fuel and better to use coal.

>> to extend our conversation, we turn to alternative energy sources like fuel cells, wind and solar energy. i bring in a fuel cell stock. they develop fuel cells for large commercial buildings. they create electricity from natural gas or hydrogen without the efficiency losses that come from a mechanical turbine. fuel cell shares in the last six consecutive sessions have been up all six of the sessions amid repeat record oil prices and up 21% in the last six sessions, up 17% in five sessions. joining me with more on alternative energy investments is an analyst with adams, harkness, hill. you give perspective on higher oil prices and what does that mean for companies like fuel cells.

>> high oil price vs. boded well for the fuel cell guys. these are the development stage companies that are developing technologies now that can be used in the years to come for supplying our energy security or on a distributed generation model where companies and individuals want to produce their own electricity on site, whether a natural gas feed, a coal feed, whether that’s a gas or in some cases oil itself. folks are looking for security around their power supply, depending on their business.

>> the problem with some of the stocks in the past, people say it is not economical to pursue modern technologies like fuel cells, it’s too expensive. what you are saying is if oil becomes so much more expensive, maybe these technologies have a chance. that is why the stock is running up. is that it

>> it is partly that. also there is a risk premium for the cost of oil. we see manufacturing. we’d like to see adoption pick up. we see that especially in fuel cell energy with contract wins announced recently. partly a manufacturing story getting this technology in the hands of industrial users and having them comfortable with it. that’s a big portion of the story to see these take hold. so we see it more in that light.

>> well, we have a break coming up. i’d like to ask both of you to stick around through the break. we’ll continue this discussion with high oil prices and the effect on alternative energy sources when we come back after a commercial.

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Listen Market briefing --- Bob (fast)
Corporate earnings --- Greg (slow)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
welcome to “world financial report.” i’m bob bowdon. the oil markets dominated investors’ attention today. crude oil prices fell in new york trading after a standoff in the iraqi city of najaf ended peacefully. prices hit $49.47 early in the session. let’s get a check of how the energy markets finished the week. down off the absolute highs. finishing at $47.86 a barrel. crude oil for september delivery shown on the chart. oil prices managed to gain nearly 6% for the week. gasoline for september delivery slipped nearly 6% in the last five trading sessions. gas prices fell 4% today alone as traders speculated the u.s. has ample fuel supplies for the remainder of the summer travel season. heating oil for september delivery gained 1.25% on the week as indicated by that chart. downward move on friday. in the natural gas futures pit, you see on a one-week basis, a gain of .3%. not as dramatic for natural gas at $5.55 per million b.t.u. gold prices in new york rose 3.5% on the week, most in five months. traders speculating that surging energy costs will slow economic% -pgrowth. that may boost gold’s allure as% pa hedge against declines in other srefpls. well, to give you some perspective on how far oil prices have risen, take a look at this. light sweet crude stayed above $35 a barrel every day since april 6 of this year. that’s a duration of 136 days. oil above $40 a barrel since july 13 or 38 days. much of the climb comes from unusually tight inventories around the world magnified by violence in iraq and questions about supplies from the russian company yukos. we thought we’d take a look back at oil markets in 1990’s, comparing current prices after iraq invaded kuwait and shortly before the first gulf war with those we are seeing now. crude oil in 1990 remained above $35 a barrel for 29 days and closed above $40 a barrel for just two days. those levels are unadjusted for inflation. in today’s dollar, $35 a barrel for oil in 1990 would equal close to $50 today, $40 back then translates to $57 a barrel today. well, concerns about slowing economic growth, record high oil prices and other factors are prompting many on wall street to trim third quarter profit estimates for dozens of u.s. companies. c.e.o.’s are doing the same. so far in the third quarter, the number of companies lowering forecasts is 439. that’s 32% higher than the same period during the previous quarter. here’s bloomberg’s greg miles with this report.

>> corporate earnings will probably rise by around 15% in the third quarter, healthy by most standards. sectors such as basic materials and industrials posting strong gains. yet that pace will be slowest in the last five quarters. many analysts are beginning to shave profit forecasts for some companies in the transportation, industrial, consumer and technology sectors. one concern is oil prices which have risen by more than $10 a barrel or 26% since july 1.

>> earnings are facing several head winds, facing higher energy prices, facing decelerating economy, they’re facing growing geopolitical concerns and they’re facing tougher year over year comparisons. the third quarter and fourth quarter will be much tougher than in the first and second quarters.

>> a number of developments are making wall street and c.e.o.’s more cautious. some strategists say higher oil prices and interest rates are curving consumers’ buying power and also boosting costs also for many companies. manufacturers are also being hurt by rising costs for steel, rubber and shipping. in the consumer decision cessionarys, analyst vs. cut forecasts for may department stores, pulte homes and goodyear tire & rubber. estimates have been trimmed for caterpillar and ingersoll-rand and cummins. worries about terrorism, the economy and job growth may cause c.e.o.’s to hold back capital spending, hurting technology companies.

>> well, there’s definitely a reluctance from a c.e.o. standpoint to invest, to take that excess cash flow that a lot of companies are generating and spend it on i.t., especially in the second half of the year.

>> those concerns are one reason analysts have reduced forecasts for texas instruments, national semiconducter and intel since july 1. intel’s profits, of course, are also being hurt by high inventories. peter boockvar says many companies may overcome the head winds in the quarter. industrial companies like alcoa, he says, may be able to raise prices faster than rising energy costs. that could help them meet profit targets.

>> thank you, greg miles. well, a mega deal to tell but in commercial real estate. general growth properties is buying rouse for $7.2 billion. the all cash acquisition will add properties to general growth’s portfolio such as boston’s marketplace and the woodlands in houston. shareholders in rouse will receive $67.50 a share, a 33% premium over thursday’s closing price. second largest u.s. owner of shopping malls will assume about $5.5 billion of debt. let’s get to the numbers as they finished on friday afternoon. we saw a rally, actually the fourth rally out of five for the week. dow jones industrial average up 1.7%. s&p 500 up .66% finishing 1,098. nasdaq up 1% finishing at 1,838. checking volume at big board, 1.12 billion shares traded. advancers beating decliners somewhere around 3-1. nasdaq, volume of 1.32 billion shares. light for the nasdaq. light volume there which you expect on a friday in august. advancers beating decliners also 3-1. moving 20 performance of major indexes for the week. dow up almost 3% for the week. s&p 500 up 3.1% for the week. nasdaq the winner of the big three indexes up 4.6% for the week. well, moving to other major market averages. nyse composite up .66%. amex up .3%. russell 2000, a measure of small caps up almost 2%. checking the broadest measure, wilshire 5000, up .8% on friday’s trading. now moving to treasuries. we see selling action on the 10- year as stocks rallied. we saw treasuries sell off to the tune of 5/32 for the 10-year and yield up to 4.23%. at the shorter end. curve―there’s the five-year. down 5/32. moving to the two-year, down 3/ 32. that yield up to 2.43%. checking the day on currencies, euro finishes at $1.23. not much change in the yen on the day. 109.12 yen to the dollar. well, stocks rallied for both the day and the week as we just indicated leading to the biggest gain in 10 months. for more on today’s trading action, julie hyman from the big board. perhaps we’ll have that later. moving on, oil companies are not the only energy-related companies that enjoyed rising share prices. investors have poured money into stocks that deal in coal and also alternative energy technologies. two analysts who cover the companies that those industries represent will be here to discuss those groups right after the break. stay with us.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 311 发表于: 2005-12-29
Google --- Michael Moe

>> google is making a concession to forces detrimental to a new issue but investor michael moe of think equity partners says the way the market is now valuing google is fair relative to its rival yahoo. moe spoke earlier with ellen braitman and myself.

>> the auction process is going to do a decent job of finding the right price, but, clearly, the reseptifty on the road show has now been―the reception on the road show has been reflected in the revised price range. looking at the mid point, call it $90 per share, looks like visa vi it’s probably―its probably best comparable yahoo because google is growing at a faster rate and it actually has -- yahoo is about at a 50% premium on 2005 earnings estimates or in other words google about 1/3 at that mid point. somewhere around that range because yahoo is more proven and has a more diversified business, that seems to be sort of getting in the right zip code.
>> it’s interesting talking about the 55 expected 2005 profit because if you look at it in terms of market cap what it would be around $90 a share, the company then would be worth more than say lockheed martin, fedex, general motors. in terms of looking at other companies of course you’re talking about yahoo being a good comparison but talk about market value and how it would compare to these other companies, more established companies with longer term records of growth.

>> well, ultimately all companies are valued on both. its current earnings and, but also, importantly, future earnings discounted back to date. the fact that on reasonable guesstimates google will make over $500 million in profits next year faster than any company i’m aware of in the first five years of its existence, and the fact that it’s going to be growing still at a very high rate, what kind of multiple people pay on those earnings, it seems reasonable that some of these sunset industry investors don’t have as much traction to --

>> matt nesto here. you guys are an investment bank and one of the few i can think of aside from merrill lynch not involved in google. how come you guys didn’t get involved?

>> well, that’s a great question. we’re a firm that’s three years old. we’re growing very fast. our, to the best of our knowledge we’re the fastest growing investment bank our size or greater in the united states. that said, you know, this is a business that has relationships people have been pursuing for a long time and candidly we like to have an independent view in terms of our view of the prospects. it’s going to be an interesting horse race in terms of what’s going on in the market place and we look forward to calling it like we see it.

>> would think equity get involved in a dutch style auction if the relationships were in place at another company or you just don’t want part of this kind of underwriting?

>> well, honestly to be involved with fine companies and google clearly as fine company is a primary goal, so it certainly is not something we try to not be involved in. and the dutch auction i think is innovative. i think they’re probably to make it more prevalent and i think accomplish broader goals, i think there needs to be some significant adjustments made but fundamentally we don’t have an issue with the dutch auction process.

>> michael, given the i.p.o. market or let’s talk about the i.p.o. market , certainly google had reasons other than needing cash to do this i.p.o. and do it now which is really pressure from shareholders who wanted cash out of the company. you see it slashing the price. it’s a trend we’ve seen in recent weeks from companies that have done i.p.o.’s. what does that tell us about what’s to come? do you think that other i.p.o.’s now that were planned are just going to be shelved?

>> you’ve already seen a pretty significant slowdown in terms of companies that had hoped to, you know, entered the i.p.o. market , look at revising their time schedule and so forth. my personal view is the air pocket that we’ve seen the last couple months, which has caused the slowdown in i.p.o.’s and perhaps somewhat contributed to a reception of google today, i think that’s temporary. you look at the overall fundamentals of the market , which ultimately will be reflected in the i.p.o. market are good. you have, you know, good earnings growth, you have significant demand and balance for equities even with outflows last month you have over $250 billion of inflows over the last 16-17 months. so all of that sort of looks to me as a recipe that suggests that we could have a reasonably healthy i.p.o. market as we look at the closing out the year and into 2005.

>> michael, true or false, google had access to the best advice money could buy and they didn’t get it?

>> well, certainly true. they had, you know, the best investment banks in the world giving advice and again, it’s hard without being involved, knowing exactly what advice was taken and what wasn’t and what by the way is just sort of monday morning quarterbacking and reacting to things that happened in the market that you can’t control.

>> all right. folks, speaking of things you can’t control, regulators refuse a request from warren buffet. that’s right. we’ll tell you exactly what that request was and why he was refused.

在线播报
Listen Market briefing --- Matt (medium)
Google --- Allan (slow)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
welcome to “world financial report.” I am Matt Nesto. the long-awaited initial public offering for google is now official. in the last hour, the securities and exchange commission accepting registration for google’s pared-down offering which could still value the company at more than $25 billion. allan dodds franks has been tracking this and joins us with details.

>> you’re right. it’s official. the bidding is closed but the story is google is a day late and $10 million short. now, that’s the story with this initial public offering from google, the company that owns the most widely used internet search engine. the securities and exchange commission approval of the registration of its offering is of the revised offering. the company now expects the price of 19.9 million shares in the selling between $85 to $95 a share. the lower offering price reflects the lukewarm reception given to google’s dutch auction and its management’s presentations to the investment community.

>> the reception on the road show has now been reflected in the revised price range.

>> the company had hoped to sell about 10% of the company stock at a projected range of $108 to $135 a share. at the high end that would have indicated a value of $35 billion for the company. in early hours of today and in a development first reported by bloomberg news the company revised its offering downward. the revised offering suggests the company if it prices at $95 a shares worth nearly $25 billion. that still gives google a market cap comparable to ford, caterpillar, lockheed martin and fedex.

>> i think the management team did not want to go public. it slipped up and unfortunately had over 500 investors who were forced to go public and then tried to create a whole set of circumstances that would allow them to run this company like a private company. we’re still leery of what’s going on here.

>> once it became obvious that the online bidding would not top $100 a share, the company’s insiders, who were selling more than 11.5 million shares reduced that allocation by six million shares. although the i.p.o. will still make them billionaires google cofounders cut the number of shares they were selling in half. so did the google c.e.o. eric smith. and several major venture capital firms managed by google directors also withdrew four million shares from the offering. once google prices, it is expected to trade on the nasdaq under the symbol goog. that decision is apparently not made just when that trade will open yet.

>> i understand we’ll get that data some time tomorrow morning maybe around 8:00 a.m. the price we all want to know and the trade. google’s venture capital investors won’t be selling their shares of the search engine company even after the stock sales value was cut almost in half. funds managed by john door and sequoia capital are withholding their shares from the sale. that’s according to google’s amended prospectus filed with the s.e.c. and that may be a good move considering futures traders have increased their bets that shares of google will rise on their first day of trading. contracts on the offering at intrade.com showed better see a 70% chance the shares will advance once trading starts up from about 60% yesterday. but if history is any guide google may join the ranks of internet companies suffering through the biggest slump in two years. declines among stocks such as yahoo and amazon and ebay sent this index down 17% so far this quarter. only eight of 105 members are up. the losses reflect comments from several of the companies that business has been hurt as internet use slowed in the summer months. the bloomberg index searched 74% last year, almost triple the gain of the s&p 500. let’s talk about the stock markets here today. all three of the bench ma’ake indexes were up again, 1.1% higher for the dow, 110 points. s&p up 1.25%. the nasdaq 2% higher. the volume though wasn’t there. traders vacationing apparently. 1.2 billion shares at the nyse and the nasdaq 1.5 billion shares. traded broader indexes, similar story. green, green, green there. 2.2% higher for the smallcap shares. bonds were down, giving back some of the gains we saw yesterday. your yield now on the 10-year note thus up at 4.24%. if we look at the shorter end, you can see 3.42% for the five-year and the two 2.42%. the dollar and euro trade is mixed. euro unchanged. the pound unchanged. both the euro and the pound were down in new york trade and the yen was up so that’s a reversal of what we saw in the u.s. today. stocks rose for a fourth day on retail and technology shares for recap of today’s action, julie hyman has this report from the big board.

>> the s&p 500 and dow jones industrials continuing to rally now entering its fourth day and both of the indices bouncing off of their lows for the year. their intraday lows which they hit on friday morning. since then the dow jones is up 3% and the s&p 500 up 3.2%. both these indices really seeing a broad-based rally in that time. all 24 industry groups within the s&p 500 are higher for that four-day period. as for today’s session a similar story. some of the various types of groups that were gaining today, from stocks that are seen as not resistant to an economic downturn like semiconductors and technology hardware and those that are seen as more resistant like pharmaceutical stocks. technology hardware doing well today in particular because of network appliance after it said second quarter results could top estimates. but some of the other movers we saw do well today, symbol, e.m.c., scientific-atlanta as well as lucent technologies. also the semiconductors doing well in today’s session. both of these groups incidentally a couple l of the worst performers on the year now rebounding over the four-day period. l.s.i. logic, micron technology and advanced micro devices and texas instruments some of the gainers there. also wanted to check on oil stocks since we saw oil perform well in today’s session after some declines yesterday as we saw oil once again approaching record highs. halliburton, el paso and burlington resources some of the gainers there. also want to look at utilities. again, showing the broad-based nature of this rally we’ve seen. the pee s&p utilities index which does include electric utilities in particular closed at a two-year high today. the dow jones industrials utilities index similar story there. also closing at a two-year high. really what’s helped the indices over the past couple of days have been the growing belief that the economic data we saw for the month of june was indeed an app ration also being helped by earnings out from retailers. as you can see there borders out today with earnings up more than analysts estimated. however, dillard’s and t.j.x. were on the decline today. back over to you.

>> on we go. metronics says first quarter income was up 18% as demand increased for devices used in back surgery. net income increased to $529 million. that works out to 43 cents per share. the sales were up 14%, $2.3 billion in sales from the world’s largest maker of spinal implants. the company is trying to produce more revenue from a wider range of devices to maintain a goal of 15% sales growth over a five-year period. well, let’s get a quick check of how the energy markets did today. crude oil prices yet another record in new york trading. crude oil for september delivery as you see up 1.1%. $47.27 intraday prices even higher than $47.50. energy department reports show the u.s. refineries boosted their operation to almost 96% of capacity. the report also showed that u.s. inventory fell last week to $293 million -- 293 million barrels, a 1.3 million barrel decline and we need to point out that’s up 5% from a year ago. gasoline demand rose to the highest level this year. gasoline for september delivery is now trading at a $129.72. you see down .6% today. and heating oil up 30 cents, $122.50. over in the natural gas futures you see little change there. we’re steady at 5.38. well, time for a quick break. when we get back, did google have access to the best advice money could buy? and did it get it?
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 312 发表于: 2005-12-29
Bacardi
Interview: BACARDI --- RODRIGUEZ, RUBEN --- Chairperson of the Board
>> bacardi is the world’s largest producer of rum and it says it is buying gray goose. that acquisition has heightened speculation that the company may be setting itself up for an initial public offering. today we get insight in the company and its future and find out if there is any truth to this talk with chairman ruben rodriguez. i think that the mere fact that you are here on our show a that you have volunteered yourself will imply to some that you are at least reaching out to the public and the possibility of an i.p.o. seems likely.

>> really we are a private company as you know, and lately we have been trying to open up to the world to avoid precisely unnecessary speculation and rumors that many times are unfounded. so, we really feel very comfortable talking to the media and to analysts and to the banks, our banks, which we have always had a very close relationship with them. as far as your question, we have received all the necessary approvals from our shareholders to let the board of directors decide the time of an i.p.o., or, if we are needed to go and tap the public market . we have a high internal rate of return and for us, really, to create value for our shareholders, the use of the proceeds are essential and we have to reinvest at a higher rate of return.

>> it is interesting because there’s been discussion of i.p.o.’s and investor interest, and with google launching its deal, there’s been a number of companies that have been postponing their offerings because of unfavorable conditions. is that the only thing that is holding you back from going forward and hiring the bankers and going forward with the deal?

>> everything is pretty much set. but we need a reason. and we need a good reason. and for that we need an opportunity. and we have just completed the acquisition of gray goose and to finance that we didn’t need to tap the public market .

>> but for other acquisitions are you saying that you would need lickedity?

>> it would depend on the timing because the industry generates a lot of cash and if at the time when an opportunity arises some of the brands have gotten back enough cash that we are in a position that we can do it without an i.p.o. we would have to consider that. there are a lot of factors that come into play. the interest rate. the internal rate of return of the opportunity. there are many factors.

>> it is not hard to look look at relative values. you look at the rivals out there. and, for example, bacardi did about $3.3 billion in sales in 2003. if you look at constellation, they trade at about one times their trading sales. so we do that math and average it out somewhere around 1.5 times so we are looking at a $4 billion to $5 million. billion.

>> we have not really done any math on poub valuations. however, in that light we would look at our company and we believe that if we were to do a public offering that our shares would be valued at the top of the industry, at a price/earnings rash so that would be a little higher. but this is purely speculation.

>> what is interesting also is the history of bacardi because it is so closely held, 600 shareholders of which 98% are family members. the company was founded in cuba in 1862. some might ask why go public at all. you have a happy, perfect, beautiful life.

>> that is correct. that is why i say that we would need an opportunity and a reason and an internal rate of return that would be the same or better than what we have to do it. i think we are in a highly competitive industry. i think that the days like a few years ago when we were a one-product company. i think if we had not expanded to gain distribution in europe and bombay to get a foothold and really become a big player in the united states and then technique kill will―tequila. so we have been able to do it without an i.p.o. so it is possible that other acquisitions can be financed internally. but we are not going to stop because we can’t do the financing. now we have the flexibility. but we have to look at the specific situation.

>> thank you very much. i appreciate your come option and joining us. ruben rodriguez. legendary investors warren buffet and george soros made changes to their portfolios last quarter. we will tell you what they were buying and selling when we return.

在线播报
Listen Market briefing --- Matt (medium)
Google --- Allan (slow)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
>> welcome to “world financial report.” months of anticipation have come to tonight. two weeks of registration and five days of bidding. initial public offering for google is now on the books. they closed the dutch auction at 4:00 p.m. new york time and says it could price its offering as soon as 5:00 p.m. allan dodds frank has been tracking the details.

>> we will soon find out how popular with investors google, the company that runs the world’s most popular internet search engine, really is. they are expected to price the 25.7 million share initial offering any time. based on a projected price, the 6-year-old mountain view, california, company, with 2,300 employees and $1.3 billion in revenue this year should be worth more than $30 billion. its lead underwriters and the company had estimated it would sell between $108 and $135 a share. analysts had been saying the google offering was in jeopardy coming out in the doldrums of august. but by this morning some analysts had changed their tune. one predicted it would go for $120 or more per share.

>> everybody wants to own google. nobody wants to overpay for it. everybody was just scared to death of overpaying for it in the offering and then getting burned about it dropped afterwards. on the other hand nobody wanted to be caught short not owning it after the offering if it takes off right away.

>> one more wrinkle. if the demand is really strong the underwriters can sell an additional 3.85 million shares. by the way, the i.p.o. makes multibillionaires of the co-found, who met at graduate school at stanford. larry page and sergei bryn. the minute the stock prices we will have reaction from analysts so stay with us. when it begins trading it will be under goog. unbelievable stuff.

>> let’s move on. shares of applied material are high are in extended trading. you can check it out now. the stock at last tick is up -- well, little change. we are getting more headlines saying it will buy back $500 million of stock in the fourth quarter after the company reported its largest quarterly profit in almost four years. they earned $440 million, 26 cents a share and it also compares to a loss a year ago, a penny better than estimate. sales up more than 100%. they doubled purchases of its machine or chipmakers rather doubled purchase of its machines. they are gaining customers by offering to service the equipment that it makes by rivals. shares gained 3% ahead. report so far this year their stock is down 28%. they have come out with a fourth quarter, it says sales at $2.35 billion ahead of a $2.30 billion from thomson financial. economic data released today shows more evidence of a growing economy with subdued inflationary pressure. the consumer price index fell .1%, the first decline in eight months. shoppers paid less for gasoline, clothing and transportation. the core rate, that excludes food and energy, was up .1%, the same as a month ago. u.s. industrial production strengthened in july for the third month in four. production at the nation’s factories and mines and utilities rose .4% which followed a revised half percent drop. industrial capacity use rose to 77.1%, down slightly from the previous month of june. housing starts rose more than forecast in july. and building permits also a sign of future activity, increased. sales of new homes reached a record in may and were the second strongest ever in june. economists are saying that mortgage rates, which have inched up recently, will have to go higher before they really crimp housing demand. starts have averaged close to 1.9 million units own an annual basis this year. and that would be on pace to surpass last year’s level, which was the highest in 25 years. let’s talk about the to being market . both stocks and bond bulls found something to like in today’s economic numbers. the dow, s&p and nasdaq all up today. particularly the nasdaq, .7% higher. the volume though 1.26 billion shares at the big board, at the nasdaq about the same, a little bit more, 1.3 billion. broader indexes a mix because the amex was down, little change to speak of. and the bonds and wilshire 5000, .3% high are. bond also up, yield on the 10-year note close to the four-month low at 4.19%. shorter end of the curve not moving as much but higher, 3 -- 2.4%. here is the latest trade on the dollar. you buy more yen and the euro and pound are both up versus the dollar. so mixed picture for the dollar right now as things get under way. it was mixed also in u.s. trade. the stock markets rallied after that inflation number and earnings from retailers and for more on today’s trading action here julie hyman from the big board.

>> the dow jones industrials and s&p 500 continue being the rally today taking it to three days. not much of a rally. s&p 500 up about 1.6% -- 1.7%, dow jones up about 1.6%. the themes we saw that helped the various indipses consumer price index coming in ahead of expectations. reassuring investors inflation is not getting out of hand and the fed may not raise rates as quickly as anticipated. retail companies’ earnings ahead of expectations and that helped the market . oil rising to a record once again in today’s session. didn’t put a damper on the markets . other elements did overwhelm that and oil stocks declined today. oil the energy index the biggest decliner in the s&p 500. and that is due in part to we had a filing that soros fund management reduced their stakes in oil stocks during the second quarter. companies like b.p. chevron, texaco and all falling in the session on that news. on the other hand detailing a couple of retail names, the biggest gainers today. home depot out with their second quarter earnings which rose 19% beating estimates boosting the forecast for the years. sape manies beating estimates and boosting the forecast. and also b.j. beating estimates. dick’s sporting goods beat estimates and raised their forecast due to their recent acquisition of gallion so it was really retail store and semiconductors gaining.

>> more rapid economic activity in july didn’t translate into bullishness for stocks among professional investors. a merrill lynch survey shows more investors expect corporate profit growth to slow than accelerate. money managers this month boosted the proportion of assets held in cash to the highest since a global stock rally began in march of 2003. fund managers worldwide cut holdings of technology stocks to the lowest in at least nine months. at the same time they added shares of drug makers and utilities. both of those groups tend to be less reliant on economic expansion. a record proportion of investors expect government bonds to perform better than company debt in the coming year. money managers cited concern that global economic growth is slowing. in fact more than half of the managers surveyed said the global economy may slow. for the first time since merrill begin the monthly survey in april of 2001, more investors say they expect global earnings growth to slacken in the next year. it is after 5:00 p.m. or as jimmie buffet said it is 5:00 somewhere. here it 5:00 so the happy hour season is there and as we talk about cocktails and rum maker bacardi comes to mind. they said they are acquiring premium vodka maker gray goose and that has some pointing to an i.p.o. possibility. we will find out more with the company commarme next.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 313 发表于: 2005-12-29
Crude oil
Interview: Peter Butele --- President of Cameron Hannover --- Analyst
>> you mentioned the 1% drop in crude oil today on that record set on friday. this was due in part to venezuelan president hugo chavez winning a referendum over the weekend to finish out his term in office, another two years, if you will. one analyst says we’re bound to see oil selling for $50 a barrel some time this year. that analyst is peter butele, president of cameron hannover, and spoke with my colleague, erin burnett, early early.

>> the momentum is clearly higher. we came out this morning and dropped overnight because hugo chavez had a 17-point lead. so it really wasn’t close but right away i started turning towards iraq where we had an oil well blown up this morning by insurgents and continue to have problems in najaf and we’re not sure how much oil they’re pumping.

>> is the venezuela potential crisis behind us or is there still a potential of upheaval in that nation due to the disputes over election returns?

>> i think it’s mostly behind us. had it been a lot closer, had it been 51-14, i think there -- 51-49, i think there would have been trouble but when you have a 16 po17-point lead, i don’t know what a recount will do. i think it’s behind us.

>> peter, one thing i wanted to ask you because you were saying that $50 a barrel is a siren’s song right now and i think about speculative trade. there’s been immense speculation in the oil market by people who don’t need to use oil. is it possible that speculation is driving oil more than the dismi and―supply and demand fundamentals?

>> the biggest problem is as we move into the fourth quarter we’ll see higher demand and we don’t know where we’ll get extra supply so there is an element of supply here every time we get any disruption, interruption to supply, we worry about it but there is a heavy element of speculation in this. we see investment money coming out of stocks and bonds into hard assets and when people think hard assets, gold and oil are the two biggies.

>> and certainly that’s driving up the price of oil but other things seem to indicate prices should be lower. inventories up about 3.5% from a year ago and some are saying that based on historical price-inventory levels, crude should be trading $10 to $12 below where it is right now. do you agree with that analysis?

>> do. i think if we were not involved in iraq and i’m not making a political comment, but if we were not there, i think oil prices would be lower. i think if opec had another two million barrels in its cushion we would not be there. i think perhaps if we had more in storage we wouldn’t be here. i think a lot of it is speculative and i think a lot is investment money we haven’t seen for years and years and years.

>> so, looking ahead, then, given all of those factors and your concern about that, why, then, will we go to $50? do you think in your view it’s just as possible we’ll go to $40 or $35 as inventory levels suggest is appropriate?

>> eventually we will. i think eventually we’ll be a lot lower down the road. but, no, i think we’ll have to go up and look at least $49 to $49.50. if we can’t break $50, you could see the bubble burst but if you break $50, people will talk about new numbers. right now, this is a locomotive heading downhill and will take something to derail it and there’s nothing fundamental out there that’s capable of doing it. the only thing that could stop this market is if it crumbles under its own weight of speculative interest.

>> one thing i want to askow this front, a point i’m curious about, crude prices up 43% for the year. natural gas prices, though, actually down 12%. i know there are fundamentals in the market in terms of natural gas being more localized but on an energy-equivalent basis, it would appear one or the other of these numbers is the right one. aboutwhat do you make in the disparity of trade between crude and natural gas?

>> the crude oil market is more psychological and one of the main factors of it is turmoil in the middle east. turmoil in the middle east doesn’t affect our supply and demand of natural gas so that may be perhaps the main factor. i think natural gas is reasonably priced. i think crude oil is dreadfully overpriced. i understand why we’re going to continue higher because you start from where you are today and say, well, things are bullish and they should be higher but if we help starting at $30, we might be talking about us heading towards $35 instead of towards $50. let’s look back to february of 2002. oil prices were at $17. the war was what really got us up this high.

>> sticking with the oil theme, coming up next, we’ll see why so many people on wall street are wondering if that higher oil price is actually the cause for slackening consumer spending based on recent data. at least one investment bank is taking a different tack on the topic. we’ll have details after a break.

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Listen Market briefing --- Matt (medium)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
Hurricane --- Su (fast)
welcome to “world financial report.” i am matt nesto. let’s give you the closing numbers today, dow, s&p and nasdaq finishing very close to their best levels of the day, 1.3% higher for the dow and s&p. nasdaq a bit better here today. common theme aside from the intraday trend was lighter-than-average volume. materials and retails stocks led the dow and s&p higher today. for more on the day’s action, julie hyman has this report from the big board.

>> the dow and s&p 500 both having their best sessions in about two months’ time since july 7. the gains were on light volume, about 8% below the average for the month, 13% below the average for the july and 17% below the average for the year as many investors and traders go on vacation in august. however, the rally was broad-based in the session due to a number of factors. one, we had news from the treasury department that foreign investment in u.s. treasuries, securities, equities, was on the rise in june for the first time since back in january. statement, we saw the price of oil stabilize and we heard from the home improvement retailer lowe’s that while they saw a slowdown of sales in june, they picked up in july and continued in the month of august. that showed some investors that they thought the weak economic data from june was an aberration, borne out by what we hear from lowe’s. we saw several groups gaining today. retailers doing well, materials stocks doing well, linked to the stabilization we saw in oil. we also saw healthcare stocks doing well today as well as diversified financials. as for the retailers, lowe’s said second-quarter earnings up 18%, less than what some analysts forecast, on the other hand, they said august looks strong. home depot is out with its numbers tomorrow and it was on the rise as well as wal-mart today.

>> crude prices in new york fell a little more than 1% today, retreating from the record high set last week. oil for september delivery fell 53 cents to $46.05, notable in that it did not breach $46. supply concerns eads as―eased as hugo chavez reclaimed the presidency in venezuela. and opec at the same time pledged its members will pump at full capacity to try to bring oil prices down further. in other commodities markets , gold closed at a four-week high in new york on a drop in the value of the dollar and orange juice prices in new york with their biggest gain in almost three years. hurricane charley destroyed parts of the orange crop in florida, world’s second biggest fruit grower after brazil. orange juice futures for november delivery rose the exchange limit of five cents, or 8%. google announced late this afternoon that the securities and exchange commission has begun an informal inquiry into its options policy. it also says some states have requested added information, including california. google may close bidding on its share auction as soon as 5:00 p.m. tomorrow. the company says on its i.p.o. website that it planned to ask the s.e.c. to declare its share sales effective at 4:00 p.m. tomorrow. underwriters would accept bids as soon as an hour after that. the internet search engine compan’s plans to sell as much as $3.4 billion in initial public offering. the company arranged for interested investors to bid through an online auction for the shares. google also released its first quarterly earnings report, the company earning 30 cents a share in its second quarter. sales more than doubled to $700 million up from $311 a year ago. as florida officials assess the damage caused by hurricane charley, insurers could be facing as much as $14 billion in claims, this as the strongest storm to hit the u.s. since 1992 continues to raise the estimates and hundreds of adjusters are there about to start paying claims to policyholders. su keenan has details on that.

>> as a result of that this, we have a rally in insurance stocks. shares of many insurers rising on expectations the industry will now have more power to raise rates or scale back price reductions. analysts say these companies, in an attempt to recover from 9/11 losses, have lowered prices for the past three years, putting profit at risk. smith barney’s analyst says shares of allstate, st. paul travelers and hartford financial could rally as much as 35% in the next year. according to kevin callahan, bad news is good news for insurers. hurricane charley is blamed for at least 16 deaths so far and has left tens of thousands homeless. 25 counties have been declared federal disaster area, making residents eligible for low-cost loans and direct grants. total damages from charley, including uninsured losses, could exceed $15 billion, according to the florida division of emergency management. joseph allbaugh, former fema director, says the damage costs could be far greater.

>> normal normally i don’t pay attention to initial estimates. fema disaster teams are walking from house to house right now reviewing with state and local officials the damage estimates. that $15 billion came out of a fema model in 1992 with hurricane andrew. it was significantly less than that and then ended up almost $21 billion when it was all said and done.

>> industry officials say charley will probably not cause florida homeowners’ insurance premiums to skyrocket as hurricane andrew did. one specialist says one or two small insurance companies may fail but for most companies, the premium increases because of charley will help pay for chillier.

>> -- charley.

>> they’ve done a better job not concentrating risks in one area and are are better at handling the claims faster, a key factor in determining how much the cost ultimately will be. they’ve created teams where they bring claims adjustors to the area, settle the claims faster, minimizing the total cost.

>> the s&p 500 property and casualty insurance index rose 1.5% today, the biggest one-day gain of the summer. the biggest gain since early april.

>> thank you very much. we have some headlines we want to bring to you about krispy kreme, the donut maker, saying its chief operating officer, john tate, is leaving the company. tate accepted the position elsewhere. chief executive scott livinggood assumed the duties. tate’s departure comes amid an investigation regarding tate’s earnings forecasts. tate left williams-sonoma in 2000 to join krispy kreme. trading on the stock not showing reaction so far. some analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before we see $50-a-barrel oil prices. peter buteau of cameron hannover brings us his view coming up.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 314 发表于: 2005-12-29
What may move markets in Europe and Asia?
>> we have a pair of previews on what may move markets in europe and asia. we begin with mark bar ton in the london bureau.

>> tyke to take a look a at the schedule in europe this week. a look at what to watch in economic news in a moment. but the mining company bilitas reports second quarter earnings monday. prices are expected to record profit close to a record high. however, goldman sachs said mining companies could see the profits cut in the second half t. rising oil prices and increasing labor and equipment costs are expected to have an impact. europe’s biggest insurer, alliant is expected to report earnings on monday. pre-tax profits improved. europe’s biggest food company, nestle, reports the second biggest later in the week. it will be on margin improvement with the chief executive peter bryback initiating a wide rapinging structural program. sales in europe are likely to remain weak. but emerging markets are expected to show strong performance. the europeep earnings season winds down this week. companies have posted rising earnings. many afford record oil prices could hurt growth in the second half of the year. on the economics front t focus will be on business and investor confidence in europe. we’re awaiting germany’s august investor confidence index. merrill-lynch issued the fund manager’s survey. they could provide further evidence the record oil prices of optimism among investors. other stories, including the latest minutes from the bank of england will be looking for an insight to how much higher interest rates could go. the minutes ahead of second quarter g.d.p. figures due on friday. preliminary data indicates growth accelerate in the second quarter boosted by a recovery in manufacturing and a rise in consumer spending.

>> well, from london, we head to tokyo for a preview of the pac rim. here’s bloomberg’s gene otani.

>> here in the new week in asia, taiwan’s economy probably accelerate in the second quarter. more flat panel displays in semiconductors while manufacturers boosted investments in factories. john c. copper say copper triple in the first half as prices surged. the government’s efforts to slow the economy probably won’t slow demand. other companies that are expected to release earnings included the world’s largest cell phone operator by china mobile as well as hutchison whampoa and cheung cong holdings. analysts surveyed by bloomberg say the world’s largest mining company posted a record profit of $3.4 billion australian dollars ap benefiting from the accelerating global growth. the company’s largest carrier, qantas airways may report a record second half profit. indonesia’s president will present the 2005 draft budget to parliament for approval. that comes from about three hours as the government with the gross domestic product in the second quarter. economists survey bid bloomberg say southeast asia’s largest economy grew 4.65% in april through june. that’s what’s expected in the asia pacific region in the week ahead. now back to you.

>> all right, back to business we go. well, it used to be the favorite of drag racers, but now it’s helping chrysler to boost its sales. we talked about the reintroduced option on the cars -- the hemi carburetor announced the buyer wills pay extra for the 5.7 liter 345 horsepower hemi in half of the cars annual light truck that is carry it t. company is sblo deuce ago 6.1 liter, 420 horsepower version. the hemi was developed for aircraft engines in the 30’s. it mixes fuel and air allowing the carburetor to suck in more air. we want to take you to the new feature. here on television beginning this month. you’ll be able to see the 20 most active stocks trading in the u.s. extended session, afterhours, if you will. the after hours ticker is going to run on the top portion of the two-tiered stock crawl. you’ll be able to see the lower prices on the lower part of the ticker. the afterhours ticker will kick in 4:15 p.m. new york time and run to 6:45 p.m. and terminal users of the bloomberg can always access that on their own by typing in most u215go. the oh litchic games are under way. nbc―it’s the big question. will the $800 billion bet to air the games in the u.s. pay off? that and more coming up next.

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Listen Market briefing --- Matt (medium)
Nasdaq --- June (slow)
Carly Fiorina --- Greg (slow)
>> i’m matt nesto. let’s talk about what happened on wall street. the. dow the s&p, and the nasdaq managing to squeak out small gains, .3% higher for the nasdaq. it rose, in fact, for the first time in three days. june grasso wraps it up with this report from the market site in times square.

>> the leading mover today was dell, the world’s largest personal computer maker with c.e.o. kevin rawlings saying he is bullish about dell’s third quarter tanled economy, a contrast of what we heard earlier in the week from the c.e.o.’s of hewlett packard. smith barney upgraded dell to buy. and the nasdaq computer index, one of the top-performing indexes on the nasdaq today, led, of course, by dell. and we saw microsoft, oracle, and intel performing well. cisco, after falling 13% in the last two days following that cautious outlook by the c.e.o. john chambers higher. morgan stanley upgraded cisco to overweight saying this week’s drop opens up the opportunity to buy the stock because the company is well positioned to capitalize on key trends and demands for cisco’s computer network, routers and switchers remain strong. another gainer, the israeli company is a best performer of the nasdaq. two days of declines, billings and ramsey came out with a report maintaining the outperform rating on the stock saying it’s 27% drop from the recent high of nearly 25 dollars represents a buying opportunity. there’s been no accounting issues as rumored. another mover, b.e.a. systems software runs web-based programs. the company said second quarter net income climbed 18% as the company signed larger license agreements and added more customers. the c.e.o. called it the best client growth in more than two years. net income was seven cents a share, meeting the average analyst estimates. that’s it for this week from the nasdaq.

>> hewlett packard’s profit shortfall raised again the issue of c.e.o. carly fiorina’s inability to deliver consistent results. greg miles has that story.

>> carly fiorina called the fiscal quarter results unacceptable and she blamed the shortfall on h.p.’s storage business. she fired three executives. some say it’s no surprise that they’ll miss the analyst forecast in the third and fourth quarter considering the company is facing rising competition from dell and i.b.m.

>> i don’t think carly’s done a poor job. i think she’s kind of a leaky boat and she’s pedaling as fast as she can. whoever you put in there, they can bail a little faster but over time you have a leaky boat. she’s done a reasonable job. the thought on wall street is the inconsistency.

>> the big surprise is how poorly the company performed. the earnings report comes from upbeat quarter where is it appeared fiorina steadied the company and was moving in the upward trend t. third time that h.p. has surprised investors in the last 13 months. h.p. missed february of 2003 and last august. technology analyst andy hopkins called fiorina’s handle of the quarter the first major, major disappointment. he put it this way―is one of those situations where you do begin to lose confidence in her. hopkins says fiorina has to start giving forecast that is the company cannot live up to. the future remains bright both operationally and stock appreciation.

>> it’s a buy at this level again just talking about the value of the printing business -- probably being $15, $16 a share. and the fact that if we are still looking for cyclical recovery that seems to be the position, that you still have the software and services business that you benefit as well. 50 and the question, of course, when h.p. shareholders will benefit. back to you?

>> well, h.p. shares down 2.6% today. 18% in three dais. and they’re now at a 15-month low. at $16.50. the massachusetts court has ruled that philip morris must face a class-action lawsuit. that, suit was filed by a group of smokers in that state and claimed that the company falsely advertised that light cigarettes were safer than other cigarettes. decision to grant class action status to reverse a lower court ruling. philip morris parent altria down about .7% today. exxon mobile says it plans to pump oil to the middle of next year from a field near russia’s sakhalin island. three well thrls are being tested now and accent owns 30% of a $12 billion venture in the area. it’s expected to produce almost 3% of russia’s oil and 1% of the natural gas. the field was discovered 25 years ago. but lay dormant until improvements in technology made it economically worthwhile to extract the oil as well as rising prices which now are at record levels has given the company the incentive they need to find and develop new sources. well, let’s check on the bonds here today t. treasuries were up. on a rash of economic news. producer prices inching higher. less than expected. a record trade deficit both giving confidence to bond buyers, buying up the bonds, sending down the yields. 2.45% for a two-year. the dollar was down today. bought less yen and the euro and the pound take ago toll against the dollar. the big move for both of those european currencies. well, we’re going get a preview of what may move markets in europe and asia next week, of course, that and more when we return.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 315 发表于: 2005-12-29
Risk solutions
RISK MGMT SOLUTIONS---SHAH, HEMANT---Chief Executive Officer
>> the government agency that monitors corporate pension plans said it will reject the controversial plans, the skip contributions to the plan as it emerges from bankruptcy. the pension benefit guarantee corporation says it will file an objection to the airline’s plan in bankruptcy court. the agency said u.a.l.’s plan not only increases the risk of thross workers and retirees, but also to other retirement plans as well for its party. the airline says it has to cut cost so it can get financing so it can emerge from bankruptcy. hurricane charley is forcing the evacuation of almost two million people. the storm may cost insurers up to $2 billion in claims. that’s the number arrived at on more to managing catastrophic risks, emmitt shaw in the san francisco bureau. the number keeps creeping higher here. when you make the estimates, what exactly is the key driver here? presumably property damages in proximity to population centers?

>> right. the key driver is the severity of the wind speed, which is a function of the intensity of the hurricane. and then very important, as well, of course, is the hurricane when it makes landfall in relation to property that’s exposed to loss. this storm has really been winding itself up after it’s been approaching lanled. as a moderate category four, 145 mile-per-hour winds, our modeling suggests we’re looking more to $10 billion with some of the simulations creeping up to $15 million and beyond. could have been worse, hard to believe given those kind of figures if it had hit tampa or raked up the coast . but this event is going to hurt.

>> being up here in the northeast, i know that there’s a lot of people who own summer homes or winter homes, i guess we can call it, down in florida, the snow birds that are empty this time of year s. that part of the problem of why some people may not actually be there to protect their properties, why claims could go higher?

>> that’s part of it clearly if you take mitigation measures, you can reduce the loss. but i think that’s on the margin. the reality is that part of florida from fort myers up to sarasota and further north is dramatically developed over the last several years. the last major hurricane to hit that part of the coast is hurricane donna in 1960. it was pretty sparse at that time. the kind of exposures we’re looking at was lot of the high-value homes along the coast the concentration of population we see up along there. it’s significant. it will surprise a lot of people who think of that part as being not as exposed as the southeast part along dade county or palm beach.

>> it’s interesting that you mentioned hurricane donna, it popped up on my list of the costliest u.s. hurricanes in the last century. what some doubted me is the category of the storms. this storm right now is a level four. but two of the top 10 most costly hurricanes were category four or five. so presumably, the strength of the storm doesn’t necessarily add up to cost―i will point out the category the number one, the most costly was hurricane andrew. that was a five. eight of the 10 were twos and threes.

>> absolutely. it depends on where the hurricane hits. it’s not a simple correlation between intensity and loss. clearly if you have a very large storm, for example, category five storm that clipped the florida keys in the 1930’s, doesn’t cause economic loss. on the other hand, you can have a good sized category three storm, slam in to long island and and the losses could blow out the top.

>> it’s interesting that you bring in long island. maybe it’s me personally, but there are some geographic call vices that these things only happen in the tropics. but that is not the case?

>> absolutely. the entire u.s. seaboard is exposed to hurricane risk. and tying these two events together and that is long island and what we’re seeing now. one of the things we have to keep an eye on with this storm is that the storm doesn’t end here with the landfall in southwest florida. going back to hurricane donna in 1960, it not only hit southwest florida, it exited on the other side of the florida, reintensified, went through north carolina and ultimately wound up in long aye lapd and new york causing damage all the way. what we’re seeing in florida is part of the overall picture when the wind settles on this event for the next several days.

>> we’re under a minute. if we go decade-by-decade, we average about six major hurricanes a year on the u.s. that’s the category three, four, or five. so these things are inevitable. it’s just where they’re going hit. that’s your job. how do you pinpoint where the next one is going to be? make insurance for it?

>> well, that’s the science of what we do. and we had longer to talk about it, we could get into technology. there’s a sparse historical record and our job is to fill in the blanks for the tabulation.

>> appreciate from the chief executive of risk management solutions. stay with us, we’re going to continue because at least one analyst is saying as wal-mart goes, so goes consumer spending. and sale there is are getting pimplinged by the surging gasoline prices. that story and more coming up next.

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Listen Market briefing --- Lane (medium)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
Google --- Su (fast)
>> welcome to “world financial report,” i’m matt nesto. there are more signs that the economy could slow down. the trade deficit ballooned to a new record in june and came in much higher than economists had been expecting. treasury secretary john snowe says slowing growth around the world has reduced demanled for american made goods. lehman brothers senior economist joseph lombadi called the trade report shockingly dismal saying it poses some significant wore riss for the economic outlook. officially t trade deficit slumped or ballooned to $55.8 billion as imports of crude oil surged slowing grothe of demand in europe, demand for exports there. the u.s. exports, i should say, the g.a.f. in goods and services follows a 46.9 billion shortfall in may. on the inflation, the wholesale prices held closer than expected. it’s up .1% in july, held back by cheaper cars and a big drop in food prices. but if you back out food and energy price t core rate also inching up just .1%. consumer confidence report showed it fell for the first time in three months in august. higher oil prirkse again, the culprit, as well as slower job creation, both weighing on the university of michigan’s monthly sentiment index pushing it to 94 instead of the increase that economists had been expecting. the price of oil above $46 a barrel in new york trade today. venezuela, among many concerns. the south american country can be holding a referendum sunday on president hugo shavezz -- oil outport exports and revenue were slashed last year because of a nationwide strike designed to force him from office, plus fighting in iraq as well as the ongoing situation in russia with yukos and their battle may also limit oil supply. you see, the 2.4% increase in oil today. the survey done by bloomberg traders and analyst show crude oil futures will probably rise again next week as well as continued supply concerns. 28 of 49 respondents predicted that the rally will continue. 10 expect prices to fall. and 11 say oil futures could be little changed. last week―replies were split on whether prices would rise or drop. they turn tout be wrong and the price is up 6% this week. you can see, up almost 4%, the price of gasoline today -- heating oil, 2% higher than natural gas also about 1.7% higher today. we’ll talk about the markets . it was little changed come the end of the day for the dow and the s&p. just .10% higher. also, the nasdaq up. a little better. a quarter of a percent higher today. the volume, wow, noticeably light. 1.1 billion shares trading up. but the rising stocks outpacing those on the slide -- 1.3 billion shares done at the nasdaq. again below average. bonds were up following that producer price index data. and the trade deficit. you can see the yield there, 4.23% on a 10-year note. five yielding now at 3.42. and the two-year at 2.45. the only thing not up today, really, was the dollar. the dollar index also down. you bought less yen and the euro and the pound both up against the dollar. it’s a mixed market for the stocks as well. oil stocks gained and inshufereers fell. for more on today’s trading action, julie hyman has this report from the big board.

>> the dow and the s&p little changed for the day as well as for the week. we were looking for the seventh down week in eight for both indices. but they managed to recover a little bit in the day’s sessions and end with a gain on the day. property and casualty insurers did limit the gain. hurricane charley does approach the coast of florida and cost to these insurers could potentially increase from the damages from that storm. some of the decliners, safeco, st. paul travelers, progressive, allstate all falling. another element was the price of oil approach ago record once again. because of that, we saw the energy stocks doing well and giving a lot of support to the market t. energy index one of the best performers in today’s session. some of the best performers, valero, burlington, apache and transocean. the group getting beat up because of cisco and hewlett packard gained in today’s session. i’m talking about the tech hardware index. companies like i.b.m. or lexmark gained. gateway was still declining. adulent technologies, the company had a profit versus a loss a year earlier. sales coming in ahead of forecast. a quick look ahead to next week. 21 s&p 500 reporting, including home depot as well as lowe’s and cisco, the food services company, not the technology company. so we’ll look forward to those next week and bring them to you. back over to you.

>> well, before today, the main question about google’s i.p.o. is whether investors are willing to pay $100 maybe $135 per stock. the owners of the most used internet search engine appeared to have a new concern. that is whether an article in playboy magazine may have opened u.s. securities lots. su keenan has more.

>> another wrink until the much-watched i.p.o. the person familiar with the situation said google’s initial public offering will not be delayed by the s.e.c. because of the playboy interview. google said it may still be vulnerable to lawsuits for shareholders. google could be forced to buy back shares sold if it was deemed to have violated the so-called quiet period. the interview with playboy features the founder -- 32-year-old sergei brand and 31-year-old larry page. the company said in the filing today with the s.e.c., this article may be violate rules as what companies may disclose before they offer a share offering. google said in the filing that it did not believe the interview that was conducted back in april institutes a violation. all of this comes as bidding for google shares began today. google opened the auction at 9:00 a.m. new york time, testing with the investors are willing to pay $108 to $135 a share. in that range, it would value the internet company at more than $30 billion. charles davonis said before what the s.e.c. might do, in the interview, cause a threat to google’s image.

>> my biggest krp is not if the offer gets delayed a few weeks but it’s just a question of brand again. does it hurt the brand image of google that they made a blunder like this. it’s a p.r. issue more than a financial issue.

>> to the financial issue, google’s underwriters may cross the i.p.o. as early as monday. cascade yeah capital michael butler, many investors are reassessing in the i.p.o. because the company has not come out with a clear financial plan as the company.

>> that and the fact that there’s a very short lockup period here. and some other structural issues with the deal have caused some investors to pull it back. in a raging bull market , they would overlook the issues. as the market stumbled here a bit, i think the markets would struggle with the difficulties of this deal.

>> google is offer ago stock at a time when 10 other companies have recently canceled or delayed the i.p.o.’s all in the last six weeks.

>> the google saga. it’s interesting.

>> stay tune.

>> all right, su. thank you. president bush’s tax cuts are helping the rich more than any other americans according to a congressional report. the highest earners will lower the share of national taxes they pay in the next decade to 62.8% from 64.4% in 2001. the tax burden will increase for 80% of americans. taxes are a key issue in the upcoming election. president bush will cut $1.7 trillion in taxes since taking office and wants to make the tax cuts permanent. his challenge, john kerry, says he wants to repeal the taxes for those earning more than $200,000 a year and give more breaks to so-called middle-class families. hurricane charley could cost insurers over $10 billion according to risk management solutions. we’re going to talk to that company’s chief executive, emmitt shaw, up next. woo
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 316 发表于: 2005-12-29
How does the Fed's decision today affect the so-called real economy?
>> how does the fed’s decision today affect the so-called real economy. that is, consumers and businesses will have to pay more when they borrow. and what will the fed do next? michael mckee spoke with bank one’s diane swonk shortly after the decision was released this afternoon.

>> the real issue here is that the federal reserve is raising rates to be more reflective and more in line with the economy we have as it slows. i have to admit i myself thought there was a chance the fed could do nothing today. i think they decided to do no news is good news and do exactly as expected even down to the measured statement but i think it’s important here that measured doesn’t necessarily mean every single moth and i think we’ll see a real opportunity for the federal reserve to clarify their words at the jackson hole, wyoming, meetings, which have taken on new importance, coming up august 26, now that chairman greenspan will be speaking at those meetings and that speech is closely watched anyway and more closely watched this year given everything has a magnified issue with regard to the economy leading up to the last weeks into the elections. of course, also having the jackson hole, wyoming meetings around the republican convention is an issue, as well. so the economy will be closely watched and talked about and how the fed intends to conduct policy will have to be clarified, i think, at those meetings.

>> we see the consumer price index rise and get record highs in oil prices. does the statement today tell you anything about how worried the fed is about inflation? does the fact that they raised rates today although there was discussion about not doing so telling you that they are concerned about what’s happening?

>> i think that’s very much an issue. i think the fact that they acknowledged it, although they thought price pressures were transitory, they still had to raise rates. they are normalizing rates. there’s a different situation where they’re trying to bring rates up to a less accommodative stance. they also pointed out that monetary policy is accommodative and they’re not trying to squelch growth. they think that oil prices are tronsatory but they thought that for a long time. i certainly don’t believe there’s a lot of fundamentals holding prices at current highs but a lot of emotion expressed earlier in terms of terrorist threats to venezuela, geopolitical situations, russia, what’s going on with yukos. all of that is feeding into higher oil prices but supply and inventories are picking up and more is coming online at higher prices, more supply is coming online and it is affecting the growth in the u.s. economy so you would expect oil prices to eventually fall but who knows when, who knows when all the emotions will be cleared out of the economy? my fear is we won’t see the real decline in oil prices we’d like to see until after the elections and that is―that’s not good news, certainly, for incumbents, also not good news for the u.s. economy because the longer the oil prices stick around, the more we have to pay in terms of the real costs―higher gas prices at the pump. that’s really the bigger issue here than interest rates. oil prices are the story all over the board.

>> a minute left. oil prices are affecting the economy but what about the fed’s interest rates? is this going to cause anybody reason to pause in terms of the kind of investments they’ll make, either consumers or businesses?%

>> no. i think as far as interest rates go, in fact, long-term interest rates have come down in recent weeks. we’ve seen other interest rates disconnect from monetary policy because in fact interest rates, the fed policy, it was well expected. so now they’re reacting to other factors, as well. anyone attached to a prime rate loan, of course, home equity loan that moves with the prime, will see a bit of increase. in terms of standard vehicle loans, every quarter point is worth $500 over a course of a five-year loan. that’s pretty insignificant on a monthly basis and won’t make or break spending decisions. at the moment, a quarter point is not a big deal and i think that’s one of the relationships the fed felt comfortable moving because if they have to move further later on down the road, at least they have a headstart on it where if they don’t have to move, they can step back and rates are still accommodative and low.

>> she has spoken. aside from the fed, we got fresh data on the economy today. worker productivity slowed in the quarter ending in june to 2.9%. that’s the lowest number we’ve seen in at least five quarters there, in fact, almost two years. smaller gaining is the companies have already gotten most of the efficiency they can out of their employees. meanwhile, labor costs were up about 2%. that, at the same time, the fast fastest in two years. slowdown in productivity could lead to increasing labor costs and prices. optimism among small businesses rose last month, expectations for the economy improved and more small business owners say they plan to increase spending and hiring. the national federation of independent business says its small business optimism index rose nearly three points to 105.9, only four points below the 18-year high it hit in december. the group’s chief economist says “capital spending remains strong and plans for future expansion also remain strong.” 35% of the small businesses surveyed expect an increase in inflation-adjusted sales, up from 26% that thought that way in june. 25% say it’s a good time to expand and that also 4% up from the prior month. former tyco c.e.o. dennis kozlowski and co-defend, mark swartz, back in court today. what’s next on their possible retrial? details when we return.

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Listen Market briefing --- Matt (medium)
Disney --- Su (fast)
>> welcome to “world financial report.” i am matt nesto. before we get to the federal reserve, let’s update you on the market today and earnings crossing after the close of trying on a tuesday. walt disney saying third-quarter profit was up 20%, beating analysts’ estimates by two cents a share. the nation’s second biggest media company says net income rose to $604 million, 29 cents a share, up from $502 million a year ago. disney shares rallied 2% ahead of the report and continue to move higher in extended trading. su keenan has been tracking those late-breaking numbers and has the story.

>> disney up six cents a share as we speak in extended hours trading. the key to the latest earnings report is the recovery of disney’s theme parks from a three-year slump due to concerns about the economy and terrorism. the walt disney company says higher attendance boosted theme park revenue 32%. chief executive michael eisner has been adding new attractions such as the tower of terror at the california park and mission space at the florida park. the company’s improving fundamentals have quieted calls from critics that eisner step down as c.e.o. five months ago, a shareholder revolt led the board to strip eisner of the chairman title. scott banesh says the theme parks are taking part in a huge cyclical recovery. operating net income at the theme parks rose 21%. revenue rose 32% to $2.29 billion. chicago asset management’s peter goldman says before the report that the gains are coming from a combination of higher attendance, price increases and cost cuts.

>> i think attendance trends have been very strong. they’ve marginally increased rates coming in, offered incentives in terms of packages to stay there for multiple days so i think things are going very, very well.

>> rising advertising and audience ratings at number-one rated sports network espn helped boost profit at disney’s cable networks division. operating income at the media networks division, including abc, rose 16%. revenue rose more than 8% to $2.92 billion.

>> you’re getting mid teens increases in the affiliate fees paid to them by the cable m.s.o.’s at the same time the ratings are doing well. if ratings go well, they can charge more per thousand viewers to the advertisers.

>> analysts say abc is still a challenge for disney and it has said that network will be profitable in fiscal 2005. the ratings have fallen since the 1994-1995 season when it was the most-watched network. that’s not the story now.

>> it’s such a diverse company. another big one with many ramifications will be cisco, world’s largest maker of computer americaing equipment. the company said it had its biggest quarterly sales gain in three years, 26%, up from a year ago. $5.93 billion in sales for the quarter. the gains were due, in part, to a boost in acquisitions and new industries such as internet securities. the profit was up 41% to almost $1.4 billion, working out to 20 cents a share. if you exclude the items, that was a penny better than expectations. shares have been down in extended trading as you can see, down 65 cents right now ahead of the report, up 2%. down about 15% year to date. also out, cisco will reinstate c.e.o. john chambers’ calorie, $-- salary, $350,000 a year, up from a symbolic $1 cash salary now we look at the fed and stocks surged after the fed said economic growth is set to accelerate. the dow and s&p both up 1.3%. the nasdaq, 1.9% higher here today. some of your broader indexes, a lot of green arrows as you can see. the best performer of those, the small caps, the russell 2000 up 2.2%. the federal reserve decision unanimously to raise interest rates by a quarter of a point was a multimarket-moving event. the benchmark lending rate now at 1.5%, the second rate increase this year. the fed policymakers reinstated their pledge to lift borrowing costs at a “measured pace” to keep inflation low without choking off growth. today’s statement noted that output growth has moderated in recent months while improvement in the labor market has slowed. members of the federal open market committee say they’re the reality is, the orange line is estimated g.d.p. for the year or running right now. lasting 4.8%. now we’re at 1.5%. so g.d.p., above the fed rate is a rarity. as you can see, the orange line only momentarily, a brief period of time, above it there. but in the past 30 years, really that is something we do not see very often. some would say it’s unsustainable that rates will go higher and the g.d.p. will slow. if you look at another one, inflation, again, we’re looking at about 20 years’ worth of data here. typically the orange line, the fed rate, will spend most of its time above the white line except for recently, you can see inflation, annualized core inflation without food and energy, still above the increased federal reserve rate. just a quick check. two-year, five-year and 10-year treasuries versus the increased yield on the fed funds target rate at 1.5%. a little blip on all of these as you can see. time for our exclusive bloomberg survey and i can sum it up for you. of 30 economists surveyed by bloomberg about what will happen at the september federal reserve meeting, the majority predict no rate increase. 25 out of 30 say no change. and .25% increase is forecast by five of them. that conviction is low among some of them. richard caser at national city corp. says it depends on the price of oil. if oil goes down, rates can go up. the economist with a.g. edwards says the jobs report will be the key. if growth in jobs and hiring returns, the fed may see clear to raise rates. those few that see rates going up a quarter of a point, they’re more confident. u.b.s. economist morrie harris and brian westbre say that the labor and the economy will rebound in the next few weeks and they are calling for a rate hike in september. how does the fed’s decision today affect the real economy? we’re talking about consumers and businesses and we’ll find out what diane swonk has to say about that, chief economist at bank one.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 317 发表于: 2005-12-29
If the government was exploring every possibility to cut oil prices)
>> welcome back. we’ve talked about the slowdown in the economy, and one major reason for that their may be the high cost of oil. oil reached a new intraday record. crude oil futures in new york finished the session a bit higher today. as a matter of fact, close to another record or it was another record. there are renewed concerns about supply disruptions. iraq cut oil shipments to tankers in the persian gulf because of warnings of attacks. energy prices sitting near their highest levels ever. we sat down with u.s. secretary of energy, spencer abraham, and asked him if the government was exploring every possibility to cut oil prices.

>> we have producers almost at full capacity. there’s not a lot more that can be done on the supply side but demand continues to rise and that’s fueling these high prices. there’s obviously these uncertainties, too, and they play a role but the fact is that demand both in america and around the world keeps growing. one thing that would make a difference would be if the% united states congress would pass an energy bill, sending the right signals to the marketplace in terms of america’s readiness to do the sorts of things we need to do to improve energy security by increasing production on the one hand and on the other hand increasing energy efficiency.

>> that is certainlying this something that could help supplies down the line. but in the shorter time frame.

>> no, i think it would have an impact, actually, on the market psychology immediately because i think our failure to pass an energy bill for three years, which is about the duration, now, we’ve been working on it, has sent such a negative signal that i think that’s influencing market psychology, as well. and i think evidence that there’s going to be a change will affect the investment strategies of people in the market .

>> you’ve said one of the biggest problems right now is that supply and certainly we are at capacity in terms of supply, so really demand is the issue.

>> right, and if people think there’s not going to be any changes so that in the future growing demand cannot be offset by changes in either efficiency or more production, i think that’s affecting how the market operates. i do think passage of an energy bill would be a key step that we really need.

>> suzy assaad asked sect abraham for his outlook on where prices may continue.

>> we think the market should be allowed to work. we think that some of the decisions that have been made over time, obviously, which were based on projections by opec of what demand would be or supply should be, are not ever going to be as good as letting the market work and our overriding message has always been to not try to predict things but to let the market function in terms of oil and i think that would be going forward the best way to set the price of oil, not to have people speculate about what a good price is, but let the market determine the right price.

>> we want to move on to the blackout. obviously, we’re coming close to the anniversary, when we remember what has been done over the last 12 months. it looks like congress still has not made the voluntary reliability standards mandatory. the standards themselves still have not been finalize by the industry regulator. what has been done over the last 12 months to ensure we don’t have a repeat of last year?

>> i should mention, another good reason for the passage of an energy bill because the same energy bill that would affect the oil markets would give us the mandatory reliability standards to be enforced. first and foremost, we need congress to take the action that’s overdue. but we’ve been busy. we recognize in the wake of the blackout that we needed to study it closely and intensely. we did, the united states and canada created an international joint task force. in april, we released the results with 46 recommendations, only one of which were mandatory reliability standards although they are the most important thing that can be done. but we’ve been acting to try to make sure that in the future we can minimize the chance of a repetition of last year’s blackout. we have subjected every operator in the country who operates one of these systems, no matter how experienced and professional they are, has, in the last year, entered in to a very intense emergency training program to train them to handle emergencies better. we conducted readiness audit in 23 regions of the country, not just the area that was the triggering point for last year’s blackout but other potential areas where crisis have the possibility of occurring. we have taken a lot of other actions, as well, suzy. i’m confident the combination of those actions even without congressional action has at least reduced the risk. it doesn’t ever eliminate it. i’m never satisfied that’s the case that we’ll never have a blackout but we think we’ve taken good action.

>> that was spencer abraham, u.s. secretary of energy. friday’s disappointing jobs report continues to weigh on the market . economists we surveyed are cutting their third-quarter forecast for u.s. growth. we’ll bring you that story next.

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Listen Market briefing --- Monica (medium)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
Nasdaq --- June (slow)
>> welcome to “world financial report.” i’m monica bertrand in new york. breaking news at this hour. crude oil has hit $44 44.99 -- $44.99 in electronic trading. we’ll follow the rising price of oil this hour. in the meantime, a day ahead of the fed’s meeting on monetary policy, stocks in the u.s. traded mixed. the s&p 500 index rose to an eight-month low. investors say stocks are looking more attractive because economic data indicates the u.s. has more room to grow. checking on the numbers and how we closed today, the dow jones industrial average barely made it, we’ll call it unchanged for the dow, down a little more than half a point. the s&p 500 holding on to a point and a quarter. and the nasdaq composite lower by 2.25 points. trying was slower than average ahead of the meeting. checking on volume, new york stock exchange barely broke a billion shares today. and a quick check of the nasdaq, 1.2 billion shares traded over at the nasdaq.

>> where does the fed go from here? we know alan greenspan and company will meet tomorrow. is it widely expected they’re going to raise interest rates again? it’s anybody’s guess what they’ll do after that. allan dodds frank joins us with more.

>> alan greenspan and his fed clegs will have to step into their roles as risk manager when is meeting in washington tomorrow. on one hand, they must weigh whether rising inflation is the biggest risk right now. on the other hand, they will consider if recent evidence of economic weakness, especially july’s meager job growth, is a bigger risk to worry about. former fed governor says inflation remains the the bigger issue for the fed given how low the interest rates are.

>> the risks of moving a quarter point and ending up with 1.5 funds rate? how dangerous could that be in an economy? not very. but the danger of not moving if the baseline forecast is right and the economy snaps back, that’s where the balance of risks lie.

>> that is why meyer believes the fed will raise rates tuesday despite signs of economic weakness. meyer and other economists think additional increases at the august meeting may be in doubt thanks to the weaker-than-expected july jobs number.

>> i think we’ll get a 25 basis point move on tuesday. i think this takes the september meeting out perhaps until we see some stronger numbers.

>> all but one of the 22 so-called primary dealers who trade bonds directly with the fed expect a rate increase tomorrow. however, 1/3 of those firms believe the fed will hold off on any further increases until after the election. as recently as a week ago, at least six primary dealers said the fed would raise rates at each of the fed’s remaining four meetings this year.

>> they’ll indicating that in their mind it’s a temporary soft patch approximately the question is whether or not they move away from that logic. i don’t think they will but that is the question to be answered.

>> former fed governor laurence meyer says the fed will signal flexibility in their statement tomorrow, leaving the fed with its options open for the fall meeting.

>> we have special coverage of the fed’s announcement on interest rates tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. meanwhile, traders held off on making big bets ahead of tomorrow’s fed meeting, leading to choppy trading today. we have more from julie hyman on the big board.

>> a mixed day for the s&p and dow jones industrials in today’s session ahead of tomorrow’s fed meeting. really, we saw many traders hold off on making bets today. volume at the big board was the third lightest of the year in today’s session as people look ahead to tomorrow and wait to do anything substantial in the market .% that said, however, oil stocks were helpful today as we saw the price of oil continue to rise. some of the stocks that declined last week, refiners, in particular, recovered today. that oil index up about 1.3%. some of the gainers, unicom, devon energy, valero energy and burlington resources. we had news in the retail industry, including dillard’s as it is selling its credit card business to general electric for $850 million in cash, using the proceeds from that sale to buy back shares, pay down debt and boost 2005 profit. those shares benefited today. red line boosted after an analyst at prudential said that the company will increase sales by 7% in the fourth quarter after flat third-quarter sales and prudential boosting its recommendation on the stock to overweight from underweight. also today, news from the cable industry. those shares down about 3%. also, we had news out of u.s. restaurant properties, a company that leases properties to burger king and pizza hut, agreeing to buy c.n.l. restaurant properties for $1.3 billion and u.s. restaurant rising on that acquisition news today. back to you.

>> the nasdaq follow lower for a fifth day. june grasso has details from the nasdaq marketsite in times square.

>> one of the worst performing groups today was the nasdaq computer index. intel, yahoo and dell dragging that down. by the way, dell, the world’s biggest personal computer maker, expected to report earnings for the second quarter on thursday. one of the best performing companies today is the same that was one of the drags on the nasdaq on friday. that’s nvidia, biggest maker of computer graphics chips. it rebounded perhaps because it slid by about 49% on friday after earnings came in below analysts’ estimates and a downgrading by several analysts. priceline.com, seller of discount travel services on the internet. credit suisse first boston raised priceline to outperform from neutral. in a research report, credit suisse says shares of the company are inexpensive given its growth potential in its retail business and improved risk/reward following a substantial correction in the company’s shares. maxim integrated, maker of semiconductors for mobile phones and video displays said its fourth-quarter profit increased 53% to a record nearly $125 million. after sales rose for the eighth straight period, benefiting from increased demand for simple chips. semiconductors moved higher today. the philadelphia semiconductor index rose and some of the other companies moving that index higher were broadcom and xilinx, world’s biggest maker of programmable semiconductors. knight trading rose, the biggest matchmaker for buyers and sellers of nasdaq stocks and citigroup, world’s largest bank, is buying its derivatives markets business for $225 million in cash to offer clients more electronic trading services. that’s it from the nasdaq.

>> google says it will have to take a loss in the third quarter after agreeing to settle a pair of legal disputes with yahoo. google will pay yahoo about $290 million in stock, putting an end to the fight over a technology patent that places advertising on the internet. the settlement could end one of investors’ concerns about google ahead of its $3.3 billion i.p.o. it’s reported slowing sales growth and has recently come under investigation by regulators. the world’s most used search engine reiterated today it expects to issue shares this month. delta air lines says it will seek bankruptcy protection without what it calls “substantial progress” in cutting costs. the airline says it needs $1 billion in annual cost savings from its pilots union. delta’s available cash dropped to $2 billion and says it’s expected to decline during the remainder of the year. delta shares fell 3.3% to $3.98. as you can see. and the shares have declined 66% this year and traded near their lowest in about 20 years. conseco and inviva have agreed to pay $20 million to settle an investigation into their annuities business. the securities and exchange commission and new york attorney general eliot spitzer say conseco and inviva misled investors by allowing favored clients to improperly trade mutual funds linked to annuities. inviva bought conseco’s annuity business in 2002. it has been a year since a power blackout hit the northeast and midwest. we’ll speak with spencer abraham about what has changed in that year.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 318 发表于: 2005-12-29
A preview of likely market-moving events in europe --- Paul (slow)
A preview of the market action in the Pacific rim --- Gene (slow)
>> for a preview of likely market -moving events in europe, let’s bring in paul george from london.

>> time to look at what’s on the schedule in europe this coming week.% we’ll have a look at what to watch in economic news in a moment. first, the corporate agenda. british airways, lufthansa and hong kong carrier cathay pacific are a few airlines out with results. we expect traffic numbers from iberia, swiss information and b.a.a. as oil futures hit record highs, investors will watch to see how these companies are positioned to cope. the international air transport association has warned that high fuel costs could cost the industry $6 billion this year. u.b.s. is among seven of the largest european banks and insurers reporting. it will probably say that rising fees from private banking offset a poor performance in its investment banking business. that would ecowe i.n.g.’s second quarter. insurers aeon and royal and sun alliance also report this coming week. our final earnings preview is of deutsche telekom which may say second-quarter profit jumped 61% up to $411 million euros on thursday thanks to higher gains from its wireless unit, t-mobile. in economics, after a very disappointing u.s. jobs numbers, non-farm payrolls last friday, and with soaring oil prices, investors everywhere will wonder what the u.s. federal reserve will do about rates. it is expected to raise them by a quarter point to 1.5% and that would be the second hike in three months. rising oil prices could also have boosted inflation in europe’s biggest economy. germany may show consumer prices rose in july. unlike bank of england, the european central bank kept interest rates at a six-decade low at 2% last week but has warned it will raise credit costs if oil prices lead to more lasting inflation. some of the highlights for the coming week in europe.

>> that was paul george. for a preview of the market action in the pacific rim, we bring in gene otani in tokyo.

>> in the new week here in the asia-pacific region, japan’s economy probably expanded for the ninth quarter ending in june. rising exports and capital spending may have helped the economy keep its place as the fastest yog in the g-7 nation. economists surveyed by bloomberg% expect g.d.p. to have risen 1% in the previous quarter. singapore’s economy may be benefitting from surging overseas demand for computer chips and pharmaceuticals. economists surveyed by bloomberg say second-quarter knnd probably grew at an g.d.p. probably grew at an annualized forecast. china’s industrial production growth probably slowed in june for a fifth month. the government has been clamping down on investment by state-owned companies to reduce power cuts and cool inflation. slowing output growth may reduce pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates. those figures expected out monday or tuesday. china’s export both may be slowing as demand cools in the u.s. and japan. a slowdown in exports may prompt companies to rein in expansion. that report also expected on monday or tuesday. and we have some key earnings out this week. hong kong’s cathay pacific airways announcing first-half results on wednesday. we’ll also get results from lanovo group, p.c. maker in china. and telstra reports on wednesday and may say net income rose over 20%.

>> warren buffett’s berkshire hathaway says second-quarter profit fell 42%. the company cites a decline in earnings from investments. net income, $830 per share, below the average analyst estimate. warren buffett says he’s accumulating cash to make acquisitions, crimping investment income. the company reported fewer investment gains in the period from a year ago when it earned $900 million from selling u.s. treasuries and securities. buffett has never sold a share of the 41 billion dollars of berkshire stock that has made him the world’s second richest man. the shares have gained 19% over the past year, outpacing the rise in the s&p 500. democratic presidential nominee john kerry proposing a $40 billion 10-year effort to spur the development of alternative fuels and technologies. he says he would use $20 billion from oil and gas royalties to offer incentives to automakers. the kerry campaign says dependence on oil from the middle east is a national security issue, a middle class squeeze issue and a jobs issue. walt disney’s abc network hangs on to the rose bowl. that coming up on “money & sports.”

在线播报
Listen Market briefing --- Lane (medium)
What the disappointing numbers mean for investors --- Paul (slow)
>> welcome back to “world financial report.” i’m lane bajardi. recapping the day on wall street, down day for the dow jones industrial average to the tune of 1.5%, same for the s&p 500. nasdaq composite down 2.5%. a check on u.s. treasuries, different story. going in the opposite direction, 10-year note up nearly 1.5 points -- more on the jobs report and its implications for the economy. michael mckee spoke with pimco’s paul mcculley. they manage more than $400 billion in assets, home to the world’s largest bond fund. mike asked what the disappointing numbers mean for investors.

>> i think investors rationally saw it as a big negative surprise for economic growth. i think it was particularly a surprise in the context of what mr. greenspan had said last month when he stressed there had been a temporary slowdown and pause or soft patch, as secretary snow said, and i think there were uniform expectations that mr. greenspan would be proven preckiant that there will be a snapback and there wasn’t a snapback so i think the marketplace is rationally debating today when the soft back becomes a ditch and whether or not we’re in the ditch.

>> do you think this may be something related to the terrorism warnings, to the fear of what oil prices might do or the fundamentals going south?

>> i think it’s a little bit of all of the above, mike. the biggest thing that’s happened in the last couple of months that hasn’t gotten sufficient attention in the marketplace is that the consumer sector has been hit hard by the oil price shock. we don’t just have creeping oil prices. we’ve had an oil price shock, which has a disproportionate effect on the lower income of our economy who have the highest propensity to consume so we saw in retail sales in the month of june, weakness and we also are seeing that corporations are pulling back with respect to hiring so i attribute much of what’s happening now to the tax hike-like effect of oil prices and i think that is the achilles heel of mr. greenspan’s scenario of a big snapback. not that it’s his fault. he doesn’t control oil prices but oil prices spiking in a negative way for the economy is greenspan’s worst case scenario. they act like a tax hike on the economy and statistically lift inflation so it’s not a very comfortable situation for greenspan to be in right now. not of his own doing except for the fact he pounded the table a little too strong at humphrey hawkins about the notion of a rebound.

>> the fend tends to look at things in a risk management way, whether or not waiting is worse than going ahead. where do you think the fed will come down on tuesday and does that differ from where paul mcculley would come down?

>> oh, i don’t know if it differs from where i would come down. i think the fed will go ahead and hike 25 basis points next week even though we had distinctly weak data today. and it’s because, as we discussed last month, the fed is on a mission right now and greenspan told us that at hump free hawkins. they went to 1% for the fed funds rate which is a negative rate by about 100 basis points if you assume 2% underlying inflation rate and they went to that negative 100 basis point real short-term interest rate to truncate the risk of deflation, the big concern a little over a year ago. that risk has passed so the fed is on a mission to normalize back up the fed funds rate. it doesn’t mean the economy is on fire, but with the deflation risk passed, they want to remove the happy-hour price for money so i think he communicated a mission, said it would be measured and they could do more if necessary but it would be measured so if greenspan’s feeling good about one thing today, it’s those who were criticizing him for using the word “measured” can take a long walk on a short pier. you wouldn’t want to be anything but measured in here and i think he will go next week to complete the 50 basis point first step back towards neutrality. i think the real issue is the data between here and september, because if we still see the soft patch morphing into a ditch in the next six weeks, i think the fed will sit on its backside in september. measured will mean doing nothing.

>> pimco’s paul mcculley speaking with michael mckee. looking ahead to asia and europe trading next week is coming up next.
级别: 管理员
只看该作者 319 发表于: 2005-12-29
A more bearish view on the economy
MBG INFORMANTION SERVICES--- MCMILLION, CHARLES--- Chief Economist
>> welcome back. as we’ve been telling you, the economy added far fewer jobs than expected in july. fed chairman alan greenspan calls it a soft patch. but our next guest is not so optimistic. for more on the labor market and what it means for the economy we bring in charles mcmillan, coming to us from our washington bureau. thanks for joining us.

>> glad to be with you.

>> we would like to taw talk to you because you have a more bearish view on the economy than many on wall street. they were surprised by there, but you weren’t necessarily, were you?

>> i probably wasn’t as surprised as others were because we’ve we’ve been following the consumer savings rate which is very, very low and debt ratios are extraordinarily high. so we weren’t as surprised by this as some were.

>> the fed has been encouraging people to spend for a long time here and encouraging them to borrow with the way they have been controlling interest rates here. you think this is not good for the economy as it stands right now?

>> the problem is that wage and even income growth have been virtually stagnant. we heard last week that real per-capita income fell to a two-month low in june and even with that and the plunging consumer spending figures that we got last week, consumers, households, are still spending almost all that they earn each week.

>> what happened here? what happened to the burgeoning recovery we saw and signs of g.d.p. growth and now we see data point after data point of weakness. what’s your view?

>> i think in the spring there was quite a bit of refinanceing and households taking equity from their homes and spending it. and i think much of that, now, has gone, certainly slowed severely. so that now with these very low savings rates for consumers and very high debt ratios and stagnant to very slow growing wage and income growth, i think we have a lot of headwind going into the next several months.

>> where does it go from here? where do you see the economy going for the next six to 12 months?

>> i certainly hope the fed does not make a move next week. i think this is not the time to be raising interest rates. consumers and businesses have enough costs to deal with right now. i think this is not the time to be raising interest rates.

>> there is still that expectation, though, in the market right now, that they will do exactly that. they will stay the course and there are people that say they should have expected this kind of a move in the summertime and they will continue to do what is expected of them.

>> i think the market is expecting the fed to move. i think there’s less expectation the fed will move this afternoon than there was about 8:25 this morning. i hope that as we all talk about this over the weekend and into the early part of next week, i hope the fed understands that they really don’t have a lot of room to stimulate this economy with record budget and trade deficits. so this is not the time to be raising interest rates.

>> you mentioned the deficits in those situations, don’t seem to be headed anywhere but up at this point. explain why you feel that’s an important point there.

>> outsourcing, of course, has been getting a lot of attention. and companies are under enormous pressure from their branch offices that are located in china or in india or mexico or somewhere else to cut costs. so we see brutal cost-cutting, certainly for 32 months into a recovery. this is really unusual. and i expect that will continue.

>> what’s the biggest threat to the economy in your view right now?

>> i don’t know. the remarkable thing about the economy right now is that with the middle east situation, with the volatility of oil prices, with federal deficits as high as they are and consumers and the problems that they are and the exchange rate stresses, that we really have a lot of areas to look. so it depends on which industry you’re in, where your biggest risk is right now but there are a lot of risks out there.

>> how much of the uncertainty concerning our own political climate is working its way into the economic aspect, if at all right now, do you think?

>> i don’t think very much. i think that the clinton―i’m sorry, the kerry campaign has really taken on much of the clinton specter and i don’t think that it’s frightening to the wall street or mane street―mane street community particularly. so i don’t think that’s the issue, i really think it’s low savings rate, stagnant and glining wages―declining wages on incomes and the concern on oil and oil prices.

>> charles mcmillon is president and chief economist at m.b.g. services. biggest internet public offering may be postponed as regulators look closely at what’s going on at google. that story is up next.

在线播报
Listen Market briefing --- Lane (medium)
Job reports --- Allan (slow)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
Nasdaq --- June (slow)
>> welcome to national world. allan dodda frank joins us with more.

>> they had forecast a quarter million new jobs and only 32,000 workers were added to payrolls in july.

>> i don’t think anybody expected this much soft turn. in fact, i would call it pathetic. this means the economy has basically hit some type of a brick wall in june and that wall is probably made out of barrel of oil.

>> the low number had immediate implications in the presidential race and for the federal reserve as it considers raising interest rates. 32,000 workers added to payrolls in july represent just 1/8 of the consensus forecast for job growth. employment was also revised lower for may and june. the employment rate fell to 5.5 the unemployment rate fell to a.5% t lowest since october 2001. hours worked rose as did hourly and weekly earnings. overall, though, the news was disappointing throughout the report. manufacturers added jobs but only 10,000. employment and service producing industries including retailers, bank, and government agencies rose 14,000 last month t fewest jobs in a year. the unexpectedly weak report raises questions about whether fed policy maker wills go ahead with the forecast increase in interest rates on tuesday. fed funds futures have been trading down, but still show traders pricing in a quarter point move to 1.5%. u.s. treasury secretary john snow says the recovery remains on track.

>> there’s an awful lot of good news here as well, which is consistent with the notion that we hit a soft patch in the second quarter, the latter part of it, but the underlying economy remains strong and we’re on a good growth path.

>> the camp of democratic presidential campaign candidate john kerry had a different reaction to today’s number.

>> these are very disappointing, very anemic job numbers. not only is the job market not turning the corner, but it’s not even clear it’s moving in the right direction.

>> kerry issued a statement saying today’s job numbers show the economy might be, and i’m quoting here “taking a u-turn.” next week the focus turns to the fed. the interest rate decision comes out on tuesday. lane?

>> going to be a big one. thank you very much.

>> you’re welcome.

>> now let’s take a look at what happened in the markets follows the news. ahead of the trading at lehman brother, matthew johnson said stocks were already cheap and going to get cheaper. running down the numbers, the dow jones industrial average down 1.5%. 147 points on the day. dropping to 9815. the s&p 500 down 1.5% at 1063. nasdaq taking the hardest hit down nearly 2.5% on the session. volume-wise, 1.5 billion shares changed hands on this august friday at the new york stock exchange. 1.7 billion at the nasdaq. take a look at some. o over indicators of the market , the nyse index. the amex index down a quarter of 1% and the russell 2000 showed that the small caps fell in line with the nasdaq with 2.4%. the will shire 5000 is the broadest measure of the market and declined by 1.5% on the day. thresh rirks however, going the other direction. surging on speculation that the low slow down is more than temporary. investors pushing the 10-year yield to the lowest since april with a 1.5 point rise on the day. on the shorter end of the curve, the five year up more than a point and you can see the two year ton day up a half point. the yield at 2.38%. the dollar plunged against the yen and the euro as the jobs report raises serious questions about further rate hikes. currency traders say the dollar could weak ton as low as 1.24 per euro once it passes 1.22. the dow and the s&p closed at the low of the years today, capping off a losing week. julie hyman wraps up the day’s action at the new york stock exchange.

>> well t dow and the s&p not only closing for the lows for the year today, but the dow closing at the lowest since late november. for the s&p, it was the lowest since early december. also, for the week we saw big drops in the indexes. for the dow, the biggest drop since march on the week, the second worst week for the year. for the s&p, it was the worst week since the last week of last september. so really a dismal couple of days here at the big board. and now really it was the jobs report indeed that pushed us down in today’s session. we talked to fred caposesi, the head of the equity division at blaylock and partners and said this is a turning point. i don’t think we’ll have any sustained rallies in the near future. certainly judging from today’s session, not much reason for traders to be terribly optimistic. want to look at some of the biggest decliners in today’s session. a lot of decliner witness the technology group. semiconductors down almost 4%. some of the biggest culprits are intel, texas instrument, as well as advanced microdevices. there is a continuing concern about consumer spending on top of yesterday’s retail sales report that the consumer will cut down on the discretionary spending and semiconductor companies suffering in particular because they provide chips for a lot of devices that consumers tend to buy. also, tech hardware stocks falling for the same reason. companies like i.b.m. as well as hewlett packard down in today’s session. and also, as you might imagine, employment stocks doing poorly today. these companies that depend on folks looking for jobs in order for the bottom line to do well. robert half, monster, and manpower all lower today. back over to you.

>> jawley hyman at the big board. june grasso has details from the market site in times square.

>> the weak job growth numbers led to a decline in employment-related stocks. monster worldwide t world’s most used internet site for hell 7-wanted advertising led a decline in employment related shares reaching the lowest in err yoof paychex was also down as it paid for staffing and career management company at kforce.com. one of the biggest drags was nvidia. they said second-quarter profit fell to three cents a share on sales of $456 million, well below analysts expectations of earnings of 15 cents on revenue of $501 million. several analysts have downgraded the company today. credit suisse first boston said they faced significant pressure if intel lowered prices. a exet competitor of nvidai, a t.i. was one of the worst performing stocks as well today. a.t.i. hasn’t changed the forecast for the fourth quarter. let’s look now at m.c.i., the number two long distance carrier. this company was one of the better performers today. it surged as much as 19% after the company said it will begin paying a 40-cent quarterly dividend, giving the stock a higher yield than any company in the s&p 500 index. the company said it has $2.2 billion in excess cash. analysts at credit suisse first boston and lehman brothers raised the ratings. lehman brothers saying in a note to clients that it was due to the expected dividend yield support for the stock and the company’s cost-cutting measures. that’s it today from the nasdaq.

>> june grasso. now, after reaching a record today, crude oil futures fell on friday on speculation a slowdown in u.s. economic growth will reduce demand for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. new york oil is surpassed intraday records every day this week as the russian government froze yukos accounts. that and an upcoming referendum in venezuela is boosting concerns here. it closed at $43.95 a barrel. other energy movers, gasoline was down as was heating oil and natural gas futures following the trend we saw with crude even though it did touch a record high but moved lower at the end of the day. and gold futures in new york had the biggest gain in four weeks. that following the plunge in the dollar. gold rose above $400 an ounce for the first time in two weeks. and one gold investor says the job figures came as a shock and people are buying gold as an insurance policy against a weakening economy. the disappointing jobs numbers prompting speculation that the economic slowdown may prove to be more than temporary. up next, we’ll talk about the outlook with charles mcmillion at m.g.m. services coming up when we return. stay with us.
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