朗读练习作业

Interview: Weeden & Co---Maxwell, Charlie---Analyst

>> and welcome back to “after the bell.” crude oil rose for the seven time in nine sessions as wintry weather takes holdory the northeast. and there was a meeting in kuwait today where opec says it may cut production in 2006. to recap headlines and offer his analysis for 2006 is charlie maxwell. he’s in stamford, connecticut, today.

>> hi, lori.

>> you were able to listen to the interview with samuel bodman. bodman saying we’re doing pretty well in terms of supply. do you agree with him?

>> yes, i do. remember, rita and katrina and emily, they all came through during hurricane season and cut back our ability to produce all of the natural gas we would normally like at this time of year, and that is something we can’t stop, except in a very long term, you know, the water is becoming rather warmer in the gulf of mexico, and this is a problem about the world’s weather, and i think we’re going to be getting these hurricanes on a more frequent basis, we’ve got to hurry and begin to put some cushion between us and trouble.

>> what might you suggest for cushion?

>> well, we need to do more with cutting back the use of gasoline and diesel by big trucks and small trucks and s.u.v.’s and cars. we really need to conserve a good deal, then we need to put in more subsidies for development and research on how to build engines to use less gasoline and diesel. there is a huge amount of conversation we can can get out of our system and we need to obtain it as quickly as possible. the government is starting to do, but more could actually be done.

>> so i want to jump ahead. we were talking earlier about this conflict of interest between big oil’s public and private interest. a lot of debate about what they should do with windfall profits. should they put that money into exploration and production, or continue to pay out high dividends and do share buy backs?

>> it’s a very controversial area, and i think being in a free economy, it’s hard for us, fillo soffically to pressure people to do things with money they don’t think is economic. i do think that there is some jaw bonying that can go on, there are studies that he can made, partly by the government. government is optimistic about how we’re going to get through this difficult period of the five and 10 years before perhaps a nuclear power can come back. that’s always the great hope down the road. but, the meantime, oil is going over―over a kind of peak in the nonopec world around 2010, and we need to make up the oil divisioncy with natural gas and coal, natural gas is now getting tight, so it will have to be more coal and a big slug of conservation, and that’s where we’ll end up, a big slug of conservation.

>> talking about the opec meeting this morning, specifically oil prices, opec is leaning toward that band of $50 per barrel. does that make sense?

>> well, so far it does make sense from an economic point of view. our system is not slowing down very much, under the impact of $50 barrels, and if allows analysts like me to suggest that while in the past we’ve had big rises and then big subsequent falls, time i think things are different, we’re going to have a much lesser fall. yes, we’ll pull back from 71 to perhaps $50 to perhaps 45, but i see many people quite content with the assumption that we’ll go back to $30. i doubt in my lifetime i’ll ever see a $30 barrel again.

>> where do crude price goes from here into next year?

>> i think they come down to about $50 in spring and summer, and they may spike down to $47 or $48, they stay around the $50 mark for summer, then they go back to $55 or $60 for winter. which is quite a normal seasonal variation, i think they’ll stay that way, lori, for perhaps a year or 18 months, while we accommodate ourselves to living with this higher cost, but in the end, we’re going to be needing to use more oil, india and china are emerging as heavy powers needing a great deal more oil. there isn’t going to be more oil out there, because we peak out in 2010 and 2012 and 2015 in various countries, we are going to have to go back to either saving it or going without, and it’s just a lot easier to save it.

>> in our remaining moments, how much trouble would we be in if we had a natural disaster or terrorist attack that would get way in the production?

>> right now we’re using 98% capacity you the i hadization, so the answer is we’d be in a lot of trouble, we have to quickly get the oil companies to invest more, beginning to save more, begin to set into place government cob servation programs so we have a cushion that will save us from the next terrorist event.

>> we’ll leave it there. charlie macwell, thank you so much for joining us.
点击播报
Listen Interview: U.S. Energy Secretary--Bodman, Samuel---Other

bell.” merck suffered a set back when a judge declared a mistrial in the third case involving vioxx. the jury was deadlocked on whether the drug caused a florida man’s death. much more in stock reaction coming up. opec may consider production cuts next year, peter cook will speak with u.s. energy secretary. first, let’s get the settling numbers as the market closes. the dow loses just about nine points to close at 10,769. shares of merck fell. s&p gains one to close at 1260, and nasdaq closes at 2260 with a gain of 4 1/4 points. oil prices closed above $61 a barrel on signs cold weather will boost fuel demand. opec ministers also left the door open to production cuts. nymex crude oil futures rallied more than 3% today, settling at 61.30 a barrel. forrest of the energy complex, natural gas, a big gainer, ricing more than 3 1/2%. su keenan joins us with the latest.

>> let’s focus on opec, agreed to keep output quotas unchanged and withdraw a previous offer to use two million barrels of capacity. no one has taken up on opec on the aspare capacity offer it was, quote, no big deal. the big focus analysts say is on opec’s january meeting. oppenheimer says opec is continuing to pump at the highest levels in 25 years because, his words it doesn’t want to look like the grinch that stole christmas.

>> the question is will demand u.s. is taken current level of oil prices? that’s the $64 question. and opec is looking very carefully at that, because if there is an economic slowdown, and the market goes down without an immediate response, we could see oil prices going down.

>> many analysts say that opec is sending a bullish natural and hinting it may cut production next month.

>> they are taking the extra barrels, the extra capacity, taking that offer―that’s coming to a close at the end of this month there was language that said as an organization we have to pay attention to the ceiling in place, this free-for-all mentalties has to come toy aclose. and the meeting at the end of january says they are watching the market and they will be ready, willing, and able to act

>> meanwhile, cold weather continues to drive prices higher, one analyst says mother nature is a bull right now. lori.

>> thank you very much, su. continuing with the oil story. today, opec supplies 40% of the world’s oil, they announced once again they will keep output close to a 25-year high, but members hinted they may consider cutting production next year. we have more on this in a special money and politics discussion. peter.

>> i’m joined by u.s. energy secretary samuel bobman. first of all, thank you for the time today.

>> peter, i’m happy to be here.

>> i would like to get your reaction to the meeting today. the cartel will continue producing 28 million barrels a day, but members may also consider cutting production next year. are you disappointed with that?

>> no. i’m in frequent touch, peter, with both the ministers who represent opec countries and nonopec countries who are producers and suppliers of the market . and in each case i try to make the case to them that it’s very important for them and for us as well as the other buyers that the market be well supplied with product. and as far as i can tell, that’s what they decided to do today to supply product and to continue to do that. obviously, it’s in their interests to examine that and look at it from time to time, so i’m not disappointed are

>> what about the specific decision to withdraw this offer the 2 million barrels of spare capacity, to that i that off the market , because there were no market participant that requested any of that supply. i concerns about that decision?

>> no, i don’t really there either. the―that product was described to me as being heavy oil, heavy material that the refining capacity of the world would have difficulty handling, and one of the big issues that is causing the kind of price situation that we have in heating oil, as well as in other refined products, an absence of refining capacity. we’ve been working hard, encouraging, also encouraged the producing companies to hopefully get busy and get the new alaska natural gas pipeline up and going, to get that committed to. as well as anwar, it’s right before congress as we speak, i’m eager to see that hopefully congress will act favorablely on that and give the president a bill to pass, to sign.

>> before we move on to anwr, i wanted to ask you specifically about opec, the notion that we’re at $61 a barrel oil, the possibility of a production cut doesn’t trouble you at all heading into next year?

>> of course we want to make sure―i will continue to advocate to the ministers involved, both opec and nonopec nations that it’s important for them to keep markets well supplied. i think it’s in their interests as well as in ours. that’s what i discussed with the various opec countries during a recent trip to the region there is a―a situation where in the past we have seen a decline in the usage of oil this is something that they are used to, they want to monitor. i don’t think that’s unreasonable.

>> so nothing you would like to see opec doing at this point to try and ease prices right now? no additional steps would you like to see them make? any specific requests you made before this meeting that perhaps did not transpire?

>> no. we have only―i have encouraged them to continue the supply, keep these markets well supplied, and as best i can tell, have done that that’s what decision today was. they are already pumping at the max mum supply possible to serve the markets of the world, and i can’t ask for more than that.

>> let me ask you about some numbers coming from the department of energy today. their energy outlook, the updated energyout look, coming from the energy administration information, the forecast looking out to 2025. anything that cause you concern? there is an expectation that the price of oil will increase more so than the department forecast a short time ago. your sense of the market going forward and the outlook from the government?

>> well, the outlook that was published today has go bothersome in it. it increased the 20-year out figure for the barrel of oil. that’s an indication that in their judgment, that demand is going to continue increasing, and that we’re going to have -- we’ll have challenges from that. it’s one of the reasons i’m very happy we passed the energy bill that the president signed into law. we’re getting all sorts of things that are getting started. if you look at the forecast, you’ll see increases in nuclear energy, increases in clean coal, increases―the effects of some of the tax impact on new hybrid vehicles, you’ll see a number of different things, also on on renewables and renewable forms of energy. that’s all starting to grow as a direct result of the energy law that was passed into law last august.

>> let me ask you about a more immediate situation that has to do with natural gas. we saw today the price is up more than 3 1/2% today. you talked after the gulf coast hurricanes about your concern about natural gas supplies heading into the winter heating season is your worst-case scenario playing out here, or is this go the country and consumers can handle?

>> we hope it will be able to handle it. the president is very concerned about the high prices, and the damage it’s doing to the budgets of american families. it’s one of the reasons he’s come out for a billion-dollar increase in the low-income heating assistance program that’s managing in the health and human services department, a billion dollars will go a long way to helping keep our citizens warm and sthafe winter some of beer very sensitive to it, the president is working very hard on it.

>> is the supply situation satisfactory to you right now?

>> we continue to have supply issues with respect to natural gas. the―we have about a third of the natural gas that is produced normaly on the gulf coast continues to be shut in and that is causing a shorter supply than we would like to have. the problem with natural gas, it’s a highly localized market , and it’s something that we’re  material that something not movies i will, especially since we have not accommodated the use of l.n.g. in this country, and that’s part of the energy bill, i think we’ll see a change there.

>> thank you, samuel bodman.

>> thank you, peter. we’ll continue our focus on the energy markets today. we’ll be joined by our next guest, says oil prices could reach $75 a barrel.

Interview: Fifth Third Asset Management---Mikelic, Mirko---Sr. Portfolio Manager

>> welcome back to “after the bell.” bonds of general motor’s finance unit gmac gained today after rick wagner said there’s been “ample interest in buying a majority stake in the division.” how smoothly will a sale go and how much could a stake be worth? joining us to answer this question is senior portfolio management at fifth third asset manager in grand rapids, michigan. welcome.

>> thank you for having me on the program.

>> who do you think a bidder might be for gmac, who would make a lot of good sense?

>> probably g.e. commercial finance, probably the most likely bidder.

>> why do you say that?

>> a lot of banks have not expressed interest because they would have to put max debt on their balance sheet and they’re not inclined to do that. there could be a private equity consortium as well.

>> what do you think a fair price would be?

>> any price where they get around $10 billion or higher. so a lot of people are talking between the 10 and $15 billion range. if they get 10 or higher, that’s probably a good stake of cash for them for g.m.

>> what is the likelihood we see a bidding war break out for gmac?

>> i don’t think there’s going to be one. it’s a complex transaction. the mortgage and insurance business, that’s easy to spin off, no problems there. but the auto finance business is a little trickier and how are you going to deal with the divedenledses that go back to g.m.? there’s still issues to be worked out and a lot of details in the transaction. so it’s not a straightforward split up the company and move on.

>> is it likely that those three divisions could be picked up by different buyers?

>> it’s a possibility. there’s a lot of analysts that would not like that, but it could come down to that.

>> when do you think we’ll hear details in the gmac sale?

>> we’ll probably start hearing about the different types of bidders probably either the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

>> regarding the bond, gmac is carrying four times the outstanding debt that g.m. is, so losing gmac has to be a huge weight lifted from g.m., but how much could this help g.m.?

>> well, gmac provides the profits for g.m. at this point in time. so it’s not necessarily a great thing for g.m. they would like to hold onto gmac, but they need the cash in the event the u.a.w. strikes and forces g.m.’s plants to close down. so i think for them to have the cash on hand is more important than having―holding a stake in gmac.

>> wagner is saying that g.m. will have improved revenues next year. he’s pointing a―putting a lot of emphasis on this redesigned chevy tahoe, but how much of the $3.8 billion in losses can a new s.u.v. make up, in your view?

>> first of all, there’s no one silver bullet that’s going to save g.m., particularly one particular vehicle or line. they need a much better product mix. right now, their focus is on the large s.u.v.’s and sales there have been declining presiptously this year. and they’re likely to continue next year.

>> you know, i want to talk about gmac’s bonds. what are the chances that gmac gets a credit upgrade or back to investment grade after being sold?

>> strong possibility. especially if it’s like a g.e. that buys them. their bonds will probably go up to probably a single a level, helping out their financing cost. right now as a junk credit that’s hurting them on the financing side.

>> gmac right now has obviously a better credit rating than g.m., but s&p said they might have to link the two if g.m. can’t sell gmac. so what is the possibility of that happening?

>> i mean, it’s still out there. if there’s problems with the sale, and i think the bidders know that the longer they hold out and the longer―the more problems that they find in splitting up the company and this controlling interest, i think the price will go down and help them on out. so if g.m. needs somewhere in the order of $10 billion to consider this a success.

>> and gmac bonds rose today on this announcement. do you see continued buying of gmac bonds?

>> well, i mean, it’s still a very risky proposition and there’s still a lot up in the air in terms of what needs to be done. and if it’s not done, the bonds are going to drop down to a single b level. so it’s a risky proposition to be buying those bonds at this point in time. however, it looks like the sale is going on and it will probably go forward with the sale, g.m. will.

>> ok.

>> all right.

>> that’s a great place to leave it. thanks a lot.

>> thank you.

>> once again, senior portfolio manager at fifth thirds asset management. there’s still much more ahead. johnson and johnson acquiring animas for $518 million. shareholders are to be paid $25.5 per share, which is a 35% premium to yesterday’s closing price. the transaction further expands it to the biggest medical device makers. oil prices fell for a third day. what’s ahead for energy? we’ll have a look when we return.
点击播报
Listen Market briefing --- Lori (slow)
Nasdaq --- Robert (slow)
NYSE --- Deb (fast)
G.M. --- June (slow)

>> after hearing a non-jury trial in delaware that ended in december of 2004. and by reading his post trial brief. lipitor with $10.9 billion in global sales last year, accounted for about 20% of the $50.5 billion total sales for pfizer. the other big story of the day, time warner’s america online has ended softs with microsoft about forming an internet advertising venture. this smooths the way for a deal with google. time warner told microsoft it will not pursue discussions. an agreement between a.o.l. and google would be a blow to microsoft, which initiated discussions with a.o.l. in january, eight months before google. google would retain a.o.l. as its largest glinalts and wage a better challenge to yahoo. also today, energy was a story. crude oil, heating oil, natural gas all fell on forecasts showing warmer weather across the northern united states. that would reduce demand for heating fuel. tat close, oil ending down $1.93 to $58.06. checking closing prices on other commodities this friday. gasoline was down nearly three points. heating oil off about 3%. natural gas futures below $14 per b.t.u. let’s show you the charts for the indexes today, all closing slightly lower. quadruple witching friday, so some volatilty in the last trading hour. all three close lower and close to the lows of the session. for the week, the dow and the s&p do close higher. this is the first winning week in three for the broad markets but the nasdaq did lose this week. google shares rose for a record friday as it moved closer to a partnership with time warner’s a.o.l. robert gray has details on today’s nasdaq trading from the nasdaq market site in times square.

>> google shares began moving higher, rising to a new record during friday’s session. this as a person familiar with the matter saying that google closer to an internet advertising venture with time warner’s a.o.l. that person saying that a.o.l. has ended talks with microsoft. of course, it would be a blow to microsoft and a boom for google. google entering the nasdaq 100 at the close of regular trading, becoming one of the 12 new members for the nasdaq 100 for the rebalancing. this taking effect on monday. we also saw adone systems one of the best performers friday, the world’s biggest maker of graphic design software, rising on earnings and fiscal first quarter outlook for profit and forecast exceeding the average analyst estimates for both. as far as weighing on the nasdaq, we saw oracle falling, investors with its license revenue for a second consecutive quarter and also on its profit forecast for its fiscal third quarter. the nasdaq lower in friday’s session and falling for a second consecutive week, falling some―just about 1/10th of 1% for the week. also, weakness in the satellite radio group. and also serious satellite radio downgraded to an underweight from a neutral. also an i.p.o. ex-chance, the number two maker of cell phone memory had to slice the price of that i.p.o. twice, though it closed above the offering price of 12ds a share. at the nasdaq, i’m robert gray.

>> and as usual, deborah has a wrap up in new york.

>> markets were little changed on this quadruple witching day, meaning the expiration of futures and options on stock indexes and the expiration on individual stocks all expiring today. volume above average, well over two billion shares that we saw in today’s session. but if you compare that to the last quadruple witching on september 16, we had over 2.5 billion shares being traded, the busiest day in three years at the new york stock exchange. crude oil settling at its lowest price since november 30 at $58.03 a barrel. we saw crude oil going from $61 to $58. it wasn’t just crude oil, it was also heating oil and natural gas, all falling on forecasts showing that warmer weather will be moving across the u.s. and of course, traders wondering a little bit if crude oiling with driven by the weather market and not by demand. one thing we saw this week, a lot of dealing in the energy industry with conoco buying burlington resources and southern union, a distributor of natural gas in 17 states. they agreed to buy a pipeline from texas for $1.6 billion. and goldman sachs was down 2.2%. they released earnings, coming in line with expectations, and goldman sachs and bear stearns saying their fourth quarter reached all-time highs. however, in today’s session, the story with goldman sachs was lower after burnstein downgraded goldman for the first time in four years, this on concern about fixed income revenue may fall next year. johnson&johnson agreeing to acquire animas corporation. i’m deborah coss tranat the new york stock exchange for bloomberg news.

>> more news out of the stock exchange, word that a seat on the exchange sold for $3.27 million, down $350,000 from the last sale on december 14. meanwhile, the exchange posted the auction of trading licenses by two weeks. the move comes in response to questions from brokers about the big board’s plan to sell rights to trade on the exchange floor. the auction will be held january 4 and bids are due a day earlier. g.m.’s chief executive say they have offers for its stake in its finance unit. we have more on the world’s largest auto maker and its plan. june?

>> some of the nation’s biggest thanks declined to bid when wagner first put the majority of g.m.’s acceptance corps on the block in october. but wagner says there’s ample interest in the unit. john novek says g.m.’s back is against the wall.

>> it’s true that it’s been a profitable unit, however they have no choice at this stage. gmac’s credit rating has been badly damaged as a result of their troubles and it’s only going to get worse. for them to remain competitive with other financial institutions, they need an investment grade credit rating and the only way is to separate the two entities.

>> wagner said that a sale will help lower the cost of loans as g.m. struggles to stop loss of $3.9 billion over the past four quarters. u.s. auto sales fell 7% in those quarters. g.m. will close plants, eliminating 30,000 union jobs and reducing health care costs. bonds went to a seven-week low last week, on signs they were having trouble finding a buyer. but those bonds gained after wagner said he’s confident they can find a buyer.

>> i think there’s likely to be a large number of bids from a wide range of structures, ranging from big banks and commercial finance companies such as g.e., perhaps citigroup to private equity firms who might choose to partner with smaller banks.

>> g.m. expects revenue to improve next year after speeding up the creation of s.u.v.’s and pickup trucks. they accelerated the launch of the 2007 chevrolet tahoe. wagner said g.m. will incyst on a gmac buyer to support the car and truck sales and that the sale will not necessarily go to the highest bidder. back to you, lori.

>> june, thanks a lot for that. we’ll continue to follow the g.m. story as c.e.o. wagner says he’s received bids for the company’s finance unit. we’ll get more on what that could mean and what kind of price tag might be attached. our next guest is a fifth third asset manager.

Market briefing --- Lori (slow)

>> welcome back to “after the bell.” crude oil is little changed today. close to a five-week high after the international energy agency increased its forecast of fuel demand growth. crude oil closing out at $61.37 per barrel. natural gas surged to a record on predictions of cold weather in the northern u.s. exxon-mobil said today world energy demand is expected to grow 1.6% a year through the year 2030. the company says the world will need 60% more energy by that time. sales at u.s. retailers rose 3.2% in the second week of december, compared with the same period a year ago. that was slower than the previous week’s annual gain. the international council of shopping centers reiterated its holiday forecast for a gain of between 3% and 3.5% for the november and december. in a separate report, retail sales in november rose .3%, less than expected. taking out auto purchases, sales actually fell. best buy is giving investors a double dose of bad news. the stock is plunging as much as 12%. third-quarter profit missed analysts’ forecasts, best buy blaming the cost of building its so-called geek squad computer repair unit. you may have seen the tv and print ads for the geek squad service. computer technicians will come to your home to fix your computer or do it in the store. the appliance chain is expanding into highly profitable services to keep growth going but it stumbled this quarter. best buy’s geek squad grew its staff 21% last quarter to 11,900 people. but that pushed up the company’s overhead costs to 21.8% of sales last quarter. a year ago, so-called spending, general and administrative costs, were 19.7% of sales. still, geek squad’s fat profit margins also lifted the company’s profit. earnings for the quarter came in at $138 million or 28 cents a share for the quarter, missing analysts’ expectations. the company’s own forecast, 30 cents a share. best buy says its quarter’s earnings will also miss analysts’ forecasts. best buy spent more money expanding a store remodeling program to target specific kinds of customers. they caterer to small businesses, affluent professionals, family men, suburban moms and younger shoppers. chief executive brad anderson acknowledged expenses were too high saying “we overinvested in certain transformation activities. as a result, our spending was unacceptably high.” anderson says the company will cut back on spending that won’t pay off on future growth. prudential equity group downgraded the shares to neutral from overweight. analyst mark rowan says this is the second quarter in a row best buy missed his forecast. given that, what he calls a lofty valuation for the stock, he says investors should cut their stakes until the company gets its fiscal house back in order. and billionaire investor nelson peltz bought a 5.5% stake in wendy’s international. peltz urged the company to cut costs and sell assets, saying a management overhaul plan doesn’t go far enough. specifically, peltz wants wendy’s to reduce expenses by $200 million, sell the baja fresh cafe express and pasta poodoro brands and spin off the tim hortons donut chain. the stock up 7%. european investigation of the c.i.a. cites indications people were abducted. derek davis has the latest in world and national news.
点击播报
Listen Interview: PIMCO---Gross, Bill---Managing Director / Partner

>> fed policymakers raised interest rates for the 13th straight time and already traders are talking about the next meeting that comes our way in january. for a closer look at the bond market ‘s reaction to today’s rate decision, we are joined by peter cook in washington with bill gross of pimco. peter?

>> thank you very much, lori. bill gross manages the world’s largest bond fund and joins me from pimco’s offices in california. thanks for your time today.

>> you’re welcome.

>> what do you make of today’s increase from the fed and the changes, in particular, in the fed’s statement.

>> well, the market expected some changes. i expected the dropping of the word “accommodation.” we did get that. the replacement word or phrase for “measured” was “some measured moves in the future” and i guess that’s what is quizzical from the standpoint of going forward, how many is “some?” is it one, two, three or four and i suggest it’s one or two. if it’s more than that, the bond market has selling off to do. if not, then we have a different scenario.

>> you think that the chances that the fed goes to 4.75%, better than 50/50 at this point?

>> i’m sticking to my 4.5. i think the fed’s pointed to the housing market and that house’s getting pretty weak here and that by the end of january the fed will recognize that and stop. but there’s a chance we see 4.75. some would suggest that there’s a chance we go to 5, 5.25, based on higher inflation and stronger economy. i just don’t see that and i think what the market is saying this afternoon is that the fed stops somewhere at 4.5 or 4.75 and from that point forward we have a pretty lackluster federal reserve for the next three to six months.

>> if they do go to 4.5, as you expect, and stop there, do you think that’s a fed that’s gone too far?

>> i do. because i think 4.5% in today’s terms―in terms of bernanke’s global savings glut, is a very onerous rate t.certainly compared to the 6.5% top early in 2000 it’s not an onerous rate but today’s environment is different. when bernanke becomes fed chairman, i suspect his view in terms of a global savings glut will preview and that view basically suggests that short-term interest rates should be lower than previous peaks because of a lackluster investment environment on a global basis.

>> are you surprised by the reaction today in the bond market ?

>> oh, a little bit. i think it was a little more bullish than i would have expected. most of the bullish sentiment and buying has been on the front end. that’s where pimco is and i’m glad to see it. based on the statement, i would have expected a plus or minus neutral type of move and it hasn’t been substantial, to be fair. but the bulk of the move has been four or five basis points on the front end, again, anticipating a fed that stops at 4.5 to 4.75 and at some point, which i think is critical, in late 2006, lowering rates, as well. >> any particular changes you made today in light of the fed’s action?

>> we’re accentuating and accelerating our moves into the mortgage market . if you look at it as i’ve described it, if you look at it as the fed stopping at 4.5 or 4.75 and staying there for six months or so in 2006 before they ease again, then what a bond investor wants to do is capture as much safe yield as possible. that can be done most effectively via the mortgage market which yields 5.75%. the mortgage market is relatively sensitive to volatility which, in my described scenario, would come down. so we’ve accentuated and accelerated our moves into the mortgage market today and i suspect we’ll continue to do that through the week.

>> we haven’t wrapped up 2005 just yet but could be the worst year for treasuries since 1999. look back for us at the year in review and give us your sense of 2006. first, 2005, your take on it?

>> sure, 2005 was a year dominated by the fed. tremendous upward movement in terms of short-term rates and as described by greenspan and bernanke and others, a rather flat movement on the longer end of the curve. that would be and would have been a move that very few bond managers and lifts analysts would have expected of the we did not expect that. that’s been the dominant characteristic for the market as a whole. yield spreads themselves in terms of corporates and high yield haven’t moved that much relative to each other but mainly the flattening of the curve has come about in a rather unusual way.

>> i have to leave it right there. bill gross with pimco, thanks so much for your time today. i will send it back to lori rothman in new york.

>> thank you very much. when we come back, latest world and national headlines and the geek squad promises computer repair and customer satisfaction. it’s left best buy’s investors wanting more. the company’s third-quarter profit missed analysts’ forecasts. more on best buy’s earnings when we return.

Interview: Weeden & Co---Maxwell, Charlie---Analyst

>> and welcome back to “after the bell.” crude oil rose for the seven time in nine sessions as wintry weather takes holdory the northeast. and there was a meeting in kuwait today where opec says it may cut production in 2006. to recap headlines and offer his analysis for 2006 is charlie maxwell. he’s in stamford, connecticut, today.

>> hi, lori.

>> you were able to listen to the interview with samuel bodman. bodman saying we’re doing pretty well in terms of supply. do you agree with him?

>> yes, i do. remember, rita and katrina and emily, they all came through during hurricane season and cut back our ability to produce all of the natural gas we would normally like at this time of year, and that is something we can’t stop, except in a very long term, you know, the water is becoming rather warmer in the gulf of mexico, and this is a problem about the world’s weather, and i think we’re going to be getting these hurricanes on a more frequent basis, we’ve got to hurry and begin to put some cushion between us and trouble.

>> what might you suggest for cushion?

>> well, we need to do more with cutting back the use of gasoline and diesel by big trucks and small trucks and s.u.v.’s and cars. we really need to conserve a good deal, then we need to put in more subsidies for development and research on how to build engines to use less gasoline and diesel. there is a huge amount of conversation we can can get out of our system and we need to obtain it as quickly as possible. the government is starting to do, but more could actually be done.

>> so i want to jump ahead. we were talking earlier about this conflict of interest between big oil’s public and private interest. a lot of debate about what they should do with windfall profits. should they put that money into exploration and production, or continue to pay out high dividends and do share buy backs?

>> it’s a very controversial area, and i think being in a free economy, it’s hard for us, fillo soffically to pressure people to do things with money they don’t think is economic. i do think that there is some jaw bonying that can go on, there are studies that he can made, partly by the government. government is optimistic about how we’re going to get through this difficult period of the five and 10 years before perhaps a nuclear power can come back. that’s always the great hope down the road. but, the meantime, oil is going over―over a kind of peak in the nonopec world around 2010, and we need to make up the oil divisioncy with natural gas and coal, natural gas is now getting tight, so it will have to be more coal and a big slug of conservation, and that’s where we’ll end up, a big slug of conservation.

>> talking about the opec meeting this morning, specifically oil prices, opec is leaning toward that band of $50 per barrel. does that make sense?

>> well, so far it does make sense from an economic point of view. our system is not slowing down very much, under the impact of $50 barrels, and if allows analysts like me to suggest that while in the past we’ve had big rises and then big subsequent falls, time i think things are different, we’re going to have a much lesser fall. yes, we’ll pull back from 71 to perhaps $50 to perhaps 45, but i see many people quite content with the assumption that we’ll go back to $30. i doubt in my lifetime i’ll ever see a $30 barrel again.

>> where do crude price goes from here into next year?

>> i think they come down to about $50 in spring and summer, and they may spike down to $47 or $48, they stay around the $50 mark for summer, then they go back to $55 or $60 for winter. which is quite a normal seasonal variation, i think they’ll stay that way, lori, for perhaps a year or 18 months, while we accommodate ourselves to living with this higher cost, but in the end, we’re going to be needing to use more oil, india and china are emerging as heavy powers needing a great deal more oil. there isn’t going to be more oil out there, because we peak out in 2010 and 2012 and 2015 in various countries, we are going to have to go back to either saving it or going without, and it’s just a lot easier to save it.

>> in our remaining moments, how much trouble would we be in if we had a natural disaster or terrorist attack that would get way in the production?

>> right now we’re using 98% capacity you the i hadization, so the answer is we’d be in a lot of trouble, we have to quickly get the oil companies to invest more, beginning to save more, begin to set into place government cob servation programs so we have a cushion that will save us from the next terrorist event.

>> we’ll leave it there. charlie macwell, thank you so much for joining us.
点击播报
Listen Interview: U.S. Energy Secretary--Bodman, Samuel---Other

bell.” merck suffered a set back when a judge declared a mistrial in the third case involving vioxx. the jury was deadlocked on whether the drug caused a florida man’s death. much more in stock reaction coming up. opec may consider production cuts next year, peter cook will speak with u.s. energy secretary. first, let’s get the settling numbers as the market closes. the dow loses just about nine points to close at 10,769. shares of merck fell. s&p gains one to close at 1260, and nasdaq closes at 2260 with a gain of 4 1/4 points. oil prices closed above $61 a barrel on signs cold weather will boost fuel demand. opec ministers also left the door open to production cuts. nymex crude oil futures rallied more than 3% today, settling at 61.30 a barrel. forrest of the energy complex, natural gas, a big gainer, ricing more than 3 1/2%. su keenan joins us with the latest.

>> let’s focus on opec, agreed to keep output quotas unchanged and withdraw a previous offer to use two million barrels of capacity. no one has taken up on opec on the aspare capacity offer it was, quote, no big deal. the big focus analysts say is on opec’s january meeting. oppenheimer says opec is continuing to pump at the highest levels in 25 years because, his words it doesn’t want to look like the grinch that stole christmas.

>> the question is will demand u.s. is taken current level of oil prices? that’s the $64 question. and opec is looking very carefully at that, because if there is an economic slowdown, and the market goes down without an immediate response, we could see oil prices going down.

>> many analysts say that opec is sending a bullish natural and hinting it may cut production next month.

>> they are taking the extra barrels, the extra capacity, taking that offer―that’s coming to a close at the end of this month there was language that said as an organization we have to pay attention to the ceiling in place, this free-for-all mentalties has to come toy aclose. and the meeting at the end of january says they are watching the market and they will be ready, willing, and able to act

>> meanwhile, cold weather continues to drive prices higher, one analyst says mother nature is a bull right now. lori.

>> thank you very much, su. continuing with the oil story. today, opec supplies 40% of the world’s oil, they announced once again they will keep output close to a 25-year high, but members hinted they may consider cutting production next year. we have more on this in a special money and politics discussion. peter.

>> i’m joined by u.s. energy secretary samuel bobman. first of all, thank you for the time today.

>> peter, i’m happy to be here.

>> i would like to get your reaction to the meeting today. the cartel will continue producing 28 million barrels a day, but members may also consider cutting production next year. are you disappointed with that?

>> no. i’m in frequent touch, peter, with both the ministers who represent opec countries and nonopec countries who are producers and suppliers of the market . and in each case i try to make the case to them that it’s very important for them and for us as well as the other buyers that the market be well supplied with product. and as far as i can tell, that’s what they decided to do today to supply product and to continue to do that. obviously, it’s in their interests to examine that and look at it from time to time, so i’m not disappointed are

>> what about the specific decision to withdraw this offer the 2 million barrels of spare capacity, to that i that off the market , because there were no market participant that requested any of that supply. i concerns about that decision?

>> no, i don’t really there either. the―that product was described to me as being heavy oil, heavy material that the refining capacity of the world would have difficulty handling, and one of the big issues that is causing the kind of price situation that we have in heating oil, as well as in other refined products, an absence of refining capacity. we’ve been working hard, encouraging, also encouraged the producing companies to hopefully get busy and get the new alaska natural gas pipeline up and going, to get that committed to. as well as anwar, it’s right before congress as we speak, i’m eager to see that hopefully congress will act favorablely on that and give the president a bill to pass, to sign.

>> before we move on to anwr, i wanted to ask you specifically about opec, the notion that we’re at $61 a barrel oil, the possibility of a production cut doesn’t trouble you at all heading into next year?

>> of course we want to make sure―i will continue to advocate to the ministers involved, both opec and nonopec nations that it’s important for them to keep markets well supplied. i think it’s in their interests as well as in ours. that’s what i discussed with the various opec countries during a recent trip to the region there is a―a situation where in the past we have seen a decline in the usage of oil this is something that they are used to, they want to monitor. i don’t think that’s unreasonable.

>> so nothing you would like to see opec doing at this point to try and ease prices right now? no additional steps would you like to see them make? any specific requests you made before this meeting that perhaps did not transpire?

>> no. we have only―i have encouraged them to continue the supply, keep these markets well supplied, and as best i can tell, have done that that’s what decision today was. they are already pumping at the max mum supply possible to serve the markets of the world, and i can’t ask for more than that.

>> let me ask you about some numbers coming from the department of energy today. their energy outlook, the updated energyout look, coming from the energy administration information, the forecast looking out to 2025. anything that cause you concern? there is an expectation that the price of oil will increase more so than the department forecast a short time ago. your sense of the market going forward and the outlook from the government?

>> well, the outlook that was published today has go bothersome in it. it increased the 20-year out figure for the barrel of oil. that’s an indication that in their judgment, that demand is going to continue increasing, and that we’re going to have -- we’ll have challenges from that. it’s one of the reasons i’m very happy we passed the energy bill that the president signed into law. we’re getting all sorts of things that are getting started. if you look at the forecast, you’ll see increases in nuclear energy, increases in clean coal, increases―the effects of some of the tax impact on new hybrid vehicles, you’ll see a number of different things, also on on renewables and renewable forms of energy. that’s all starting to grow as a direct result of the energy law that was passed into law last august.

>> let me ask you about a more immediate situation that has to do with natural gas. we saw today the price is up more than 3 1/2% today. you talked after the gulf coast hurricanes about your concern about natural gas supplies heading into the winter heating season is your worst-case scenario playing out here, or is this go the country and consumers can handle?

>> we hope it will be able to handle it. the president is very concerned about the high prices, and the damage it’s doing to the budgets of american families. it’s one of the reasons he’s come out for a billion-dollar increase in the low-income heating assistance program that’s managing in the health and human services department, a billion dollars will go a long way to helping keep our citizens warm and sthafe winter some of beer very sensitive to it, the president is working very hard on it.

>> is the supply situation satisfactory to you right now?

>> we continue to have supply issues with respect to natural gas. the―we have about a third of the natural gas that is produced normaly on the gulf coast continues to be shut in and that is causing a shorter supply than we would like to have. the problem with natural gas, it’s a highly localized market , and it’s something that we’re  material that something not movies i will, especially since we have not accommodated the use of l.n.g. in this country, and that’s part of the energy bill, i think we’ll see a change there.

>> thank you, samuel bodman.

>> thank you, peter. we’ll continue our focus on the energy markets today. we’ll be joined by our next guest, says oil prices could reach $75 a barrel.

Interview: Standard & Poor's---Rosenbluth, Todd---Analyst

>> we have one more note on allan dodds frank’s interview with kenneth langone. we contacted eliot spitzer and his office had no response to the comments from mr. langone. alltel plans to spin off its wireline unit and merge it in a $9.1 billion transaction to allow it to focus on its cellular phone business. joining us with more details on the deal is todd rosenbluth, equity analyst with standard & poor’s, joining us from new york. is this deal, for all shareholders involved, a positive or negative?

>> we only cover alltel, we don’t cover valor at standard & poor’s equity research. from the alltel perspective, we think this is a positive deal. we think they’ve found additional shareholder value from the wireline properties that we think will propel the stock going forward and we have a hold recommendation now.

>> why did alltel want to get rid of the wireless business in the first place?

>> the telecommunications industry has been changing shape and alltel has decided their path is to grow using wireless assets. they’ve made acquisitions, throughout 2005 that included western wireless, properties from cingular wireless over the year, as well, and this is a step in that direction to spin out the wire-line properties and focus on the growthier side of the business.

>> is alltel perhaps positioning itself to be acquired?

>> we’re looking at the company from a stand-alone basis from a wireline standpoint and from alltel, the wireless side and we think this is positive for both segments. we think the wireless side allows them to make more capital investments to compete with the verizon wireless and cingulars of the world and from the wireline perspective, we think it will have stable cash flows to support its strong dividend. >> i know you’re just covering alltel here, can you enlighten us strategically and financially what the deal means for valor?

>> valor is a smaller company than alltel. alltel has about three million local phone lines and valor is closer to 300 to 400,000 access lines so the size differential is enormous so it’s more that alltel is getting together with valor but alltel will have the majority stake in it. u.a.l. stell shareholders will have the majority ownership as well as directors will primarily be coming from alltel.

>> $9.1 billion transaction. is alltel getting the right price for the wireline business?

>> we think so. we’ve raised our target price at standard & poor’s equity research on alltel today because of the higher multiple for the wireline properties than what we were expecting. we think it’s appropriate based on what will happen with valor going forward but we think it’s a little bit better than we anticipated.

>> what is that price?

>> we have a $59 target price over the next 12 months on alltel shares and recommend investors hold it.

>> as far as the telecom industry, why are some of the smaller telecoms like alltel and sprint not as successful in maintaining both the wireless and wireline businesses as, say, verizon or at&t?

>> from alltel’s perspective, they had been a smaller regional player compared to where verizon wireless or what at&t, which has bought s.b.c. and has the cingular wireless relationship, there’s more integration going on and overlap in the properties and they have a national presence. alltel is building up its presence but is still relatively small compared to the customer accounts that cingular or verizon wireless has so switching directions will be a positive.

>> considering the expansion, cable, broadband, wireless, wireline, how do you see the structure of telecom companies evolving in the next five years? >> we think we’ll see a lot of competition, from the cable side of the business as well as wireless and traditional telecom companies all going after the same customers and customers are trying to spend as little as possible but get as many services as they possibly can and these three entities are trying to vie for that position. we think alltel will compete better based on what’s going forward.

>> todd rosenbluth, thank you very much for your time.

>> our pleasure.

>> this is todd rosenbluth, equity analyst with standard & poor’s. much more ahead when “after the bell””after the bell” returns. detroit fans losing faith, soccer teams losing revenue. details there. and nba games might be losing something that most game watchers consider part of the territory.
点击播报
Listen Interview: INVEMED ASSOCIATES INC--langone, kenneth---Chairperson of the Board

the man he’s suing over former nyse chief dick grasso’s pay package, billionaire kenneth langone, may help raise funds for a challenge to spitzer.

>> what is it about eliot spitzer that bugs you the most?

>> i hope people don’t think i was attacking eliot spitzer. i was simply pointing out the case against me and fact that i think he’s not the person who should be the governor of this state with its challenges, job creation, the economy and all the other challenges. i think in america we’re ready for people that can manage as well as be elected and i don’t think he can manage.

>> you made the point this isn’t personal.

>> absolutely not, allan.

>> but you said you feel he’s a vigilante prosecutor.

>> what i said is, his behavior, whether with me or anyone else, is inconsistent with what justice is supposed to be all about. when you have that kind of disconnect, how can you have the public trust.

>> you absolutely don’t want him to be governor.

>> i don’t think he’s qualified to be governor.

>> what are you going to do to keep him from becoming governor?

>> i’m going to wait to see who surfaces to run against him. this young man in nassau county, i’m very impressed.

>> in other campaigns you’ve raised millions of dollars.

>> i’ve raised lots of money. i’ve raised lots and lots of money for people whom i respect who want to go into political office and for what it’s worth, i don’t want anything back from them, nothing, just do a good job.

>> let me ask you the obvious question, why not run against eliot spitzer yourself?

>> i’d be the worst guy in the world in politics. worst. why? because i think a lot of what i believe in would be very popular. i think my taxes should be increased. i don’t think i should get social security. can you imagine the firestorm i’d create with those two points. but that’s what i believe.

>> let’s talk about your case in eliot spitzer. inside, you challenged eliot spitzer to do something with regard to your case, tell me about it.

>> very simple, he, with great fanfare announced this case against me and grasso but i’m talking about my gas.  my case. i think m owes it to the effort he put into this case anded time he spent, let’s go to court before you leave office and you, mr. attorney general, you try that case and he knows as well as i know this case is bankrupt at this point, bankrupt.

>> why do you say that?

>> because there isn’t―in 31 depositions so far, there hasn’t been one single person utter one word that they were misled. that’s a tremendous statistic.

>> misled about how much mr. grasso was paid.

>> how he was paid, the components of his pay, the process by which we determined he was going to be paid. the whole thing. i’m very proud of the work we did. people might not agree with what i think grasso is worth but i got to tell you, the process was as good as i’ve seen anywhere.

>> do you think the attorney general is intimidating businessmen?

>> absolutely, that’s his modis oprendi. that’s what bothers me. we’re suppose to live in a democracy where people aren’t afraid of elected officials but people are frightened of him.

>> have you talked to dick grasso or hank greenberg about getting involved in the campaign against spitzer?

>> no, this is me, based on what i’ve seen, firsthand, on my experience that, eliot spitzer is not qualified to be governor of new york state. i think the citizens will rue the price paid if he becomes governor.

>> any other cases he’s been making have merit in your opinion?

>> sure, i’m not suggesting for a minute that some of the cases he brought don’t have merit but on the other hand, you don’t create laws expose facto. i never heard the word market timing forces. there are cases where it’s not against the rules or against the law, i don’t know. but prominent lawyers have said to me, this guy’s just out to create―and by the way, he shows up with the media. you have said you have not been questioned by the attorney general.

>> i was interviewed with the s.e.c. in connection with this case. the attorney general had a representative in that room. to this day, nobody, not the attorney general or anyone in his office has asked me one question about this case. think of that, they bring a case against me but don’t even hear what i think. that’s about as unfair as it gets.

>> you say that some people have been deposed are telling you that they’re not represented accurately.

>> a significant number of people have contested the web report, they have said that in the web report, what comments are attributed to them, they’re saying, i didn’t say that. we’ve asked the web people, give us the notes. the notes are what the report was derived from. the notes have been destroyed. think of that. tell me how it would look cosmically if we were on the other side, if it was me who had the notes and i wrote a report and i said, well, i got rid of the notes.

>> let me close with a question about the press. you talked a lot about the press in this speech.

>> i think the attorney general has a very unholy alliance with the press. i think the attorney general could not do what he’s doing if he didn’t have the level cooperation of the media.

>> do you think we’ve been soft on him?

>> i think you’ve been biased, very biased. he’s your hero. eliot spitzer, to me, is a creation of the media, that’s fine. look, we lived through this before, we’ll live through this. but i’m sitting here at 70 years old and saying to myself, i know better and i have no ax to grind. the one thing i know for certain, this case for me, i’ll say it, is bankrupt. it’s gone. he knows it. let’s go to court. but i’ll challenge him, i will bet my last dollar he’ll do everything he can to leave town before this case gets to court.

>> we’ll be right back.

Interview: Money & Sports

>> welcome back. fans of the 4-8 detroit lions are so unhappy, many have begun wearing paper bags over their heads to games. now they’re lashing out at team owner william clay ford and the ford motor company. one fan has taken it to a new level, selling his loyalty on ebay. in this week’s “money & sports,” we’re joined by mike buteau out of our atlanta newsroom. how much does a football fan’s loyalty cost?

>> initially, he thought it only cost a penny, that’s what the opening bid was but eventually he pocketed $286. he said he wasn’t looking to make a profit but happy to be rid of the detroit lions as his team.

>> what effect will the team’s play have on ford motor?

>> all season long, the ford family has been the butt of a lot of criticism. this team has had a terrible record since the team has been run by the ford company, or the ford family. matt millon remains in place. they’ve fired their coach. people are protesting their games. there was a message board on websites shut down because too many people were putting up negative comments. fans have been escorted out of ford field for holding signs up against ford. detroit newspapers are asking for suggestions for signs to be held up and one of them was “think ford last,” a playoff from their slogan so it’s not a good situation for detroit, the lions and the ford family.

>> not long ago, basketball fans could go to a game and hear themselves speak. not so easy anymore. commissioner stern wants to do something about this. what is the plan?

>> he was chatting on espn.com with fans and one fan suggested to him, if your games are so exciting and the product so exciting, why do you have to have music constantly blaring during the action. music is played during the play while it’s going on and david stern is talking to teams who will have silent nights, without music playing during the action. this will be a welcome change to a lot of people because as you know, when you go to sporting events, you can’t hear yourself speak because of all the music and everything else going on.

>> does this affect sponsorship agreements within the arena?

>> i spoke with the director of game operations with the atlanta hawks today and he said essentially this is not looking at for sponsorships. they’ll still do promotions and sponsorsships during the games but you won’t have music blaring as the ball is brought up court and guys are shooting three’s and there’s that going on. they’re going to shut off the music and see if the crowd makes noise.

>> manchester united fans stunned when the team failed to make the playoffs. the defeat could be a blow to the bottom line. how will that impact them financially?

>> there’s a number of things it will impact. right away, manchester united, the biggest thing with them the past year ago, was the purchase of the glazer family and they bought the team in hopes of increasing the revenue and profits by 50% over the next 10 years. this is a big blow not to have them in the final 16. it really affects their global appeal. the numbers range anywhere from they could lose about $26 million to upwards of $173 million.

>> you have more news in soccer.

>> today, the world cup draw came out and defending champion, brazil, was picked to play croatia in the first day of the match. the world cup draw came out. the u.s. got their pool. they’ll be with ghana, the czech republic and italy in a tough draw.

>> thank you very much. we’ll catch up on the latest world and national headlines. and our “world’s biggest mover” segment segment is ahead. we’ll look at the indian stock market , all coming up.
点击播报
Listen Market briefing ---Lori (slow)
NYSE --- Deb (fast)
Nasdaq --- Robert (slow)

been able to reach agreement on jerome york being added to the g.m. board of directors. york would have represented kerkorian on the board. g.m. and tracinda say they expect to continue talks on this matter in the future. gold reached a 24-year high. investors bought the precious metal as an alternative to stocks, bonds and currencies. what’s fueling the rally in gold? hedge funds and large speculators have more than tripled net long positions since the end of july, bets that prices will increase. the move in gold came as the dollar rose versus the yen and euro but fell versus the british pound sterling. u.s. consumer confidence rose for a second month as lower gasoline prices left households with more money to spend during the holiday season. the university of michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer confidence for december came in at 88.7. treasuries fell in reaction -- checking on how stocks finished the day. stocks down for the week but really it was semiconductors that helped boost the market . deborah kostroun joins us from the new york stock exchange.

>> stocks were higher today, but lower for the week and leaders in the s&p 500 on the day, semiconductors, taking the lead. also, autos and utilities performing well. in fact, semiconductors, year to date, some of the best performers in the s&p 500 as a group. they’re up 14%. but this week, a little bit of a different story. semiconductors were the worst performers in the s&p 500. this was ahead of a lot of news coming out in the semiconductors. you had intel and texas instruments updates. also national semiconductor earnings. intel was higher on the day although their sales forecast disappointed investors. the bigger story that emerged was competition from a.m.d. intel’s chief financial officer, andy bryant, saying that advanced micro will take market share in hand-to-hand combat, forcing intel to cut prices, weighing on sales and speeding up introduction of new products for servers. a.m.d. was the biggest gainer on the s&p 500 on the day and the biggest gainer in the semiconductor index. consumer confidence rose again in december as lower gasoline prices gave people more money to spend on the holiday season. the big story today in crude oil and natural gas was the big turnaround we saw. natural gas started out, we hit a record but by the close of trading, it was lower. if you compare that to what was going on all day in the s&p energy index, energy stocks were lower all day today. what you did see, integrated oil, oil services and natural gas, they were lower all day today. taking a look at alltel, this is the largest rural telephone company, planning to spin off its landline business and buy back $3 billion from stock. looking at industrials, g.e. announcing it will increase its 2005 stock repurchase plan by $1 billion to $5 billion. i’m deborah kostroun at the new york stock exchange for bloomberg news.

>> thank you. and semiconductor stocks helped lead the nasdaq lower for a third day in four. robert gray has details on today’s nasdaq trading from the market site in times square.

>> late afternoon rally helped the nasdaq finish higher on friday as a measure of consumer sentiment, the university of michigan consumer sentiment index rose more than expected this month and as oil fell below $60 a barrel on the nymex and according to the director of nasdaq trading at standard morris harris, that is the sweet spot. we did see stocks rising after it fell below that level. gains on friday did not help the nasdaq higher for the week, ending its streak of gains at seven weeks, the longest advance since the fourth quarter of 1999. semiconductors helped lead the way on friday. we saw stocks rising almost 2% on the session during friday with hardware and internet stocks leading gains.

Interview: Global Insight---Lindemer, Kevin---Director of Global Energy

>> crude oil and heating oil fell after an energy department report today showed u.s. inventories surged as refinery operations and imports went up over the last week. joining us now with a closer look at that weekly inventory report and to share his outlook for energy prices next year is kevin lindemer, director of global energy at global insight. he comes to us from lexington, massachusetts.

>> good afternoon.

>> welcome.

>> thank you.

>> help me put the energy inventory report in confixture today.  context today. we had rising inventories with crude oil, distillates and gasoline. any chance concerns about winter supplies are overblown?

>> certainly the supply situation is improving faster than many expected. and the markets worked the way you would hope with help from the weather. up until recently, we had imports strong, demand slow a little and refineries coming back and inventories have grown to a comfortable position.

>> will crude prices around the $60-a-barrel mark control demand?

>> we haven’t seen a lot of response globally from high oil prices on the demand side. if we get cold weather between now and the new year, the situation early on could be robust for prices. if it stays warm, prices could come down.

>> i want to ask you about the oil refinery situation. right now, operating about 90% capacity since the hurricanes. any chance of getting closer to 100% to meet winter demands?

>> probably not 100%. we do have one major refinery coming back online shortly. at this time of the year, you don’t really run at 100% and when you look at the inventories, we don’t need it at 100%.

>> you’re talking about the weather so crude prices are down 15% from the august 30 hurricane high. where do you see crude prices going into next year as we pass the winter peak?

>> we think the crude prices will stay relatively stable between now and the end of the first quarter, driven by the global supply demand situation and not the u.s. domestic situation.

>> an opec meeting on monday. should we be concerned opec, i believe, saying they’re basically pumping as much oil as they possible can through the end of the year. is this a situation where there’s a buffer in case of disaster, terrorist attack?

>> there probably isn’t much of a buffer in crude oil supplies. the situation is really light sweet crude that is in short supply. there’s a lot of heavy sour crude around and opec does not have light sweet crude oil spare capacity.

>> what should we listen for in the opec meeting?

>> what kind of price level opec would support into 2006. i think most people. expect that surplus capacity in the system will grow over the course of the next year or so and subsequently we -- consequently, we should see softness in price so it’s where will opec support price.

>> looking at distillates including heating oil, demand expected to be 12% higher than last year. where do we stand in terms of distillate supplies?

>> it’s in very good shape in the united states, especially the east coast. when you look at gulf coast where a lot of domestic supply originates or on the import market , everything is looking pretty good so we expect the winter to be well supplied.

>> how will that translate into heating oil prices?

>> heating oil prices are wide right now compared to crude oil and will probably stay that way through the end of this month. the weather will determine whether or not we see a drop in heating oil prices after the first of the year. if it’s cold for the next 30 days, we’d expect to see softness after that.

>> moving to natural gas, futures still flirting with the $14-per-b.t.u. level, rising again today. what’s the supply shortage issue with natural gas?

>> the incremental gas will all have to come from storage. l.n.g. is the only noncontinental gas supply, already pretty much programmed in. on the natural gas side, the market is very concerned about cold weather sustained through past the end of january.

>> is natural gas really the point of concern among all the energy?

>> it still is and has been for a while. gas prices went up again today and i think it’s going to stay pretty sketchy through the next couple of months.

>> does this translate into the fact, you heat your home with natural gas, you stand to possibly face the steepest price increase this winter?

>> well, the market is already, i think, anticipating maybe a little bit of the worst. so if we do get a cold snap, the price spike probably shouldn’t last too long. what will be key is what do power generators do with their natural gas and some of the large industrials. does the price get high enough to turn it back into the system or do they continue to operate?

>> let me ask you about pump prices, 12% higher right now than a year ago but certainly down from the $3.05 gallon high on september 2. gasoline inventories, we learned today, rose last week. have we seen the peak in prices at the pump?

>> i think we’ve seen a plateau. it’s come down from the high and a lot of that decrease was due to two reasons, softness in crude price and narrowing of the gasoline-to-crude oil spread. that spread has narrowed to as narrow as it’s going to get so unless there’s significant improvement in the retail price, we’ll see gasoline fairly stable.

>> our thanks to kevin lindemer of global insight. car racing in the u.s. has an audience second in size only to the national football league. espn and abc have bought rights to the next year’s nextel season.
点击播报
Listen Market briefing ---Lori (slow)
G.M. --- Jeff (slow)
Texas Instrument --- Ellen (slow)
Coke --- Suzanne (slow)

43 points -- we did see weakness in shares of semiconductors today. also, we begin with the developing story on general motors. on top of several management changes, g.m. is confirming that the automaker’s asked a representative of billionaire investor kirk kerkorian to join its board of directors. kerkorian owns a 9.9% stake in g.m. and the representative is jerome york, former chief financial officer from chrysler. jeff green who reports on g.m. for bloomberg news joins us from our newsroom in southfield, michigan. hi, jeff.

>> just to clarify, they haven’t yet said it’s jerry york but have said they’re in discussions with kerkorian and jerry york is his adviser on general motors and has a stake in whatever profit kerkorian gets, so he is the person expected to be on the board if kerkorian gets a representative.

>> what are analysts saying?

>> people i talked to respect york. they say he will work with the board. he’s been through restructures before and understands how this works so they see him as an asset, not an agitator and since he’ll be on the board, it will be in kerkorian’s best interests to get along with general motors versus being outside and making demands.

>> the move would give kerkorian a de facto place on the board. what’s in it for york?

>> york gets 4% of whatever profit kerkorian gets by 2009 so it’s potentially a lot of money. right now, he’s losing money. kerkorian’s investment is $400 million under water so g.m.’s stock must recover.

>> this comes at a time when g.m. and ford face global challenges. what is york’s take on the auto industry today?

>> we haven’t talked to york, although he has said in at least one conversation―he expects a rebound. he thinks g.m. and ford are undervalued and shares will rebound and that seems to be their reason for investing in general motors. they think they bought in low and that it will increase and they expect to make a profit.

>> jeff, thank you for your insight. bloomberg news reporter jeff green. news after the bell on texas instruments. going right to our stocks editor, ellen braitman.

>> the company after the bell is out with its mid quarter update, saying it will come in at the high end of previous forecasts. it’s raising the lower end of the forecast both for sales as well as profit. let’s go through the fourth-quarter numbers in terms of what the company is saying. texas instruments saying that fourth-quarter revenue will be 3.56 billion to 3.7 billion dollars. previously, the company had said revenue may come in between 3.4 and 3.7 billion. so, again, raising that lower end of the sales forecast. also what the company is saying, for profit, it anticipates earning 38 to 40 cents a share, including the stock expense. if you take out that expense, it sees 41 to 43 cents a share for the quarter. again, raising the lower end of that forecast. previously, the company had said those fourth-quarter earnings per share would come in at 36 to 40 cents a share. keep in mind, context here. new mobile phones that surf the web and play videos have propelled sales in the holiday shopping season, reflected in the mid quarter update we’re getting after the close. c.e.o. rich templeton has sped up production in order to fill orders, easing concern demand would outstrip manufacturing capacity. what’s key is the faster growth in phone chips has overshadowed slowing demand for the d.l.p. chips for tv screens as well as computer monits. shares were up ahead of the close. shares up 35% this year and among the analysts, expecting gains to continue with 26 buy ratings, 17 holds and two sell ratings. after the close, the company reporting it will come in at the high end of the forecast.

>> thank you very much. coke’s analyst meeting took place in new york city, finishing around 4:00 p.m. new york time. the stock was little changed, closing at the $42-a-share level. suzanne o’halloran was at the meeting and joins us now.

>> thank you very much, lori. today, coke’s c.e.o. told investors the company is making good progress on its turnaround and the long-term financial goals will be met. the company expects operating income of between 6% and 8% and earnings per share to be in the high single digits. c.e.o. said the company is is making progress in areas such as marketing and non-carbonated products. he did admit there is still a lot of work to be done and analysts and investors i spoke to agree.

>> it’s a huge challenge. they’re transforming the company from product lines to organizational structure to people to networks and retail emphasis so there’s a big transformation taking place. they have to execute, that’s the challenge going forward.

>> as for 2006, isdell said expect weak performance in europe, india and the philippines and currency will be a drag on results. the dollar has risen about 14% this year against a basket of major currencies. one of the more interesting points from the meeting was that the c.e.o. shareholder the spotlight with mary minnick of global marketing . analysts say it’s the first time in a while they’ve been given details about what’s ahead on the marketing front. coke plans to roll out a global marketing campaign and target each region of the world. this will be available on all platforms, including internet blogs. they speak to 50,000 people who drink beverages and the new campaign will be focused on coke being relevant to daily life. the company said non-carbonated products are key to balance out the dependence on carbonated drinks and putting emphasis on health and wellness with teas.

>> oil supplies rose. our next guest is an energy economist with global insight.

Interview: RBC Dain Rauser---Dow, Philip---Equity Strategist

>> interesting day as far as equities trading. we saw the dow, s&p and nasdaq give back the bulk of their gains today. what’s behind the market moves today, through the rest of the year, into next year? we’ll go ahead and speak with our next guest, phillip dow, director of equity strategy with rbc dain rauscher, in minneapolis, minnesota. thanks for joining us. the dow and s&p―i’m sorry, the s&p and nasdaq touched 4 1/2 year highs today and retreated. is there a signal in the market ?

>> i think we live in a world where people tend to rent stocks rather than own them and you can have the intraday referrals. best said, you keep it in context of today, see what tomorrow brings. to me, i didn’t see news that would make the market decline like it did today. we’ll have to see what happens tomorrow.

>> as far as technical levels, the dow seems to be testing the 10,800. we did close above, at 10,856, to be exact. what do you see in terms of testing that support level? >> if we break through the old march high, i think that will be significant to people but the main thing i’d convey to people as we look at the market decline in october, the immediate area ahead in terms of the economy looked pretty dark. now, with the economic reports, g.d.p., productivity, et cetera, it looks like a reasonably robust economic situation and good earnings which means probably reasonable reports for the next three to six months. the irony is things have improved fundamentally yet the market valuation generally compressed.

>> do you think the investors were fearful that the market shot up so quickly today?

>> i think by and large what you saw today was probably program trading on the upside and downside. i think, again, lori, it’s hard to just make any assumption because i didn’t see news that would have driven the market down as it went down today.

>> what fundamentals could push the dow to 11,000 at this point?

>> i think in general, just a recognition that we’ve had 10 quarters of almost 4% g.d.p. growth or in the area of 4% g.d.p. growth. 14 quarters where earnings beat expectations and it looks like we’re going into the first half of next year with double-digit earnings growth, as well, and reasonable economic reports. i think that means the market needs to catch up and in the next six months you could see as much as a 10% rally in the market . how much of that we get this year will determine how much we get next year.

>> this is seasonally a bullish time for stocks, according to stock trader’s almanac. beyond january, do you expect to see gains continue?

>> yeah, i would expect that into the first quarter, you’ll probably see pretty strong price momentum in the market . again, backed up by fundamentals. i think it’s highly likely the economy will deliver reasonable numbers and earnings will at least meet expectations, possibly beat them as they have the last 14 quarters.

>> when in your view is the best strategy for stock investing right now?

>> i think you really do need to own stocks rather than rent them, rather than buying an a.t.f. or index fund, i think you need to own companies and i think the great blue chip dividend growers are a great way to invest right now. additionally, i think technology and healthcare areas of growth are attractive and finally energy, we feel we’re in maybe inning four of the energy story.

>> how long do you think the large cap names you’re preferring will stay cheap?

>> compared to the s&p, by and large, they traded very attractive valuations. so my hope is that you begin to see people gravitate toward those names and my guess is over the next six months, those stocks could do better.

>> we’ll have to leave it there. thank you very much for joining us, phillip dow, managing director of equity strategy with rbc dain rauscher in minneapolis today. johnson & johnson is defending its bid for guidant after boston scientific made a higher offer. johnson & johnson issued a statement today saying its b.d.i. for guidant “represents full and fair value.” johnson & johnson is offering $21.8 billion for guidant, less than the two companies previously agreed upon. boston scientific stepped in yesterday with a $25 billion offer. guidant is the second biggest maker of implantable defibrillators, which help the heart beat normally. a shareholders meeting is scheduled for next year to decide on competing bids. the winner gains access to what is becoming a $10 billion-a-year market . there is another sign that the housing market in the u.s. is cooling. bonds backed by home loans to the riskiest borrowers have lost about 2.5% since september. these fixed income instruments are the fastest growing part of the $7.6 trillion mortgage market , yielding the most in two years. the rise in yields reduced the value of loans made by lenders, resulting in lower profit margins and higher rates for consumers with bad credit. traders are growing increasingly concerned that an 18-month rise in interest rates may force more than 150,000 consumers to default. we’ll check in with world and national headlines and hear the latest on the nyse-archipelago vote. stay with us.
点击播报
Listen Market briefing ---Lori (slow)
NYSE --- Greg (slow)
NYSE --- Bob (fast)
Nasdaq --- Robert (slow)
Kerkorain --- June (slow)

nyse members voted in favor of the acquisition. so the vote changes more than 200 years of tradition at the nyse. much more when we check in with our greg miles momentarily. also today, on the economic front, productivity jumps spurring a stock and bond rally. we saw strength today in energy, computer hardware, semiconductors and retail stocks. shares of pfizer, johnson & johnson weighed on the averages toward the end of the session. treasuries rose today with the 10-year note posting its biggest gain in three weeks on on the back of a report showing unit labor costs declined last quarter, suggesting inflation pressures may ease. there’s a look at the 10-year -- new york stock exchange members just approved the big board’s merger with archipelago. the chicago-based electronic exchange. the nyse says more than 95% of its members voted in favor of the deal to convert the exchange into a for-profit, public company. for the latest details, we’ll go to greg miles standing outside the new york stock exchange.

>> c.e.o. john thain breaking that news on a telephone conference call with journalists a few minutes ago here at the exchange, calling the proposed deal to buy archipelago holdings, the electronic marketplace, an historic deal. he said the approval by such a large percentage of nyse members was, as he put it, a reflection of the strategic rationale of the deal and reflected the positive outlook of the new york stock exchange as a for-profit entity. he said the deal will be final in the latter part of january, when the new ticker for the so-called nyse group, the name of the new public company, will trade here in the united states. he pointed out that this needs justice department approval and only minor hurdles to resolve with the securities and exchange commission. he said there is not any significant hurdle left. it opens a way for a deal that would make the vast majority of the members of the stock exchange rich by most american standards, they will get $5 million worth of stock in the deal. they will get $300,000 worth of cash. they can sell that stock in stocks―stages over a three-year period. john thain may decide to make a secondary offering some estimate at $1.5 billion so many members may choose to sell shares earlier if they choose. speaking earlier today with robert fagan, former vice chairman of the new york stock exchange, c.e.o. of the u.s. arm of van der moolen, european financial firm, and he is optimistic about the new public nyse.

>> you have a whole new corporate governance sector and that actually started before this administration came in but they kicked up the volume on that. through an entirely independent board, separated our regulatory function where our chief regulatory officer no longer reports to our c.e.o., but reports directly to the board so landscape has definitely changed and has positioned the nyse group to be absolutely number one in virtually everything that trades anywhere on this planet.

>> the approval by the members today will create a company with an estimated market value of around $9.3 billion, making it the second largest publicly traded exchange in the world behind germany’s deutsche boerse with an estimated market value of $10.7 billion. it will expand them into electronic trading and enable them to do potentially many acquisitions.

>> thank you. a broad rally turned into a thin rally for stocks tuesday. bob bowden filed the following report from the new york stock exchange.

>> on tuesday, the s&p finished higher and survived a late-hour pullback. the s&p had been up almost .9% but finished up just .1% driven lower on the right side of the intraday chart by computerized sell programs in the last hour of trading. before the pullback, the s&p reached the highest point in four years, and by the close, the s&p had fallen below its previous four-year closing high set late last month. overall on the s&p 500, 267 stocks finished up, 224 down and nine unchanged but it was another winning day. 11 of the last 14 sessions have been higher for the s&p and it leads the dow and nasdaq year to date, up 4.25%. dillard’s shares rose 8.5% after the company said third-quarter loss, its third-quarter loss narrowed to just three cents a share from a 23-cent loss in the period a year before. same-store sales were up. and autozone, another retailer, in their case gaining 6.67% after saying fiscal first-quarter sales rose to $1.43 billion, more than expected. news from sears holdings, buoying that retail stocks. other retailers up included linens and things and the gap. if you look at the overall s&p retailing index, on the day finished up .4%. the food sector fell. conagra foods down 2.5%. the company’s chief executive said it will take time before there is meaningful improvement in earnings. devry fell, the company that offers college degrees in business technology and veterinary care, saying undergraduate student enrollment for the fall semester dropped 2.3% from last year. we had all-time highs like united technologies hitting $54.97, and boeing tied its all-time high.

>> thank you. semiconductors helped lead the nasdaq to a 4 1/2 year high. robert gray has details on the nasdaq trading from the nasdaq marketsite in times square.

>> the tuesday morning’s productivity and labor reports were taken as inflation friendly by traders, including the trader at boston company who said that’s one of the reasons we saw a rally through much of the session. however, there were computer sell programs entering the market in the afternoon and there are two distinct legs down. the nasdaq composite touched a fresh 4 1/2 year high in the session, going as high as 2278 before pulling back, closing near the lows of the session. against led by semiconductors, s.o.x. now up 18% from october 28 to today. we saw altera helping pace gains among the semiconductors after their mid quarter update after the close monday raising their sales forecast. xilinx shares moving higher ahead of their update. intel shares closed lower by about 1% ahead of their mid quarter update coming thursday after the close. in the semiconductor group, maxim integrated products, maker of semiconductors for consumer electronics, raising its fiscal second-quarter revenue and earnings forecast, lifting that stock higher. semi equipment companies, kla-tencor at its highest level since march 2004. as far as new highs go, apple computer rose to a record high, u.b.s. raising its estimates for the current quarter and all of next fiscal year, boosting its price target to $86, the $12 increase and most aggressive on wall street. apple announcing it will start selling “law and order” and other nbc shows on the itunes video download service. teva pharmaceuticals and cincinnati financial both reaching new record highs.

>> kirk kerkorian spent nearly $2 billion buying general motors’ stock and now he may be looking for a bigger role. june grasso has a closer look.

>> kerkorian said he may seek a seat on g.m.’s board of directors after losing more than $400 million on his investment. g.m.’s board meets today and kerkorian may turn up the pressure. he’s been g.m.’s most visible investor this year building a nearly 10% stake in g.m. g.m. shares fell to an 18-year low less than a month ago, the most of any company in the dow average. auto analyst george mag lioni says kerkorian has options and one of the options that several analysts are talking about is kerkorian putting someone on the board, in particular, the name that comes to mind is jerome york, a kerkorian adviser and former chief financial officer of chrysler. back to you.

>> thank you. much more after this.

Interview: Health and Human Services---Leavitt, Sec. Michael---Politician / Govt Official

>> the threat of bird flu has some americans stockpiling roche’s tamiflu drug. but the drug may not be a sure-fire, are guarding against bird flu. health and human services secretary michael leavitt kicked off a series of planning meetings today with state officials concerning the disease. michael mckee is here to speak with michael leavitt.

>> thank you, mr. secretary, for joining us. i’d like to start with a question i have asked a lot of people about this issue. you want people to prepare. how serious is the danger that we might have a bird flu epidemic in this country?

>> there is not any way to quantify that. it’s a frustratingingly elusive question. it all revolves around whether or not the h5n1 virus that is currently plaguing hundreds of millions of birds actually makes the transition to a virus that’s able to efficiently pass from person-to-person. it has crossed the species barrier at least 130 times we know of because that’s how many people have confirmed that they have it but it is not happening efficiently. if that happens, it’s a big problem. but we have no idea how certain it is. it isn’t zero but at this point most scientists say it’s not high.

>> given that, congress has yet to act on the president’s request for funds to seek a vaccine. is it irresponsible for them to have done so or are they acting responsibly given the fact that it’s not possible to quantify the danger?

>> here’s what we do know with some certainty. pandemics happen. we’ve had 10 in the last 300 years, three in the last 100. we will have another pandemic and we are not prepared. we are―listen, we’re behind schedule for pandemics and we’re under prepared.

>> almost all the deaths associated with the bird flu so far have been in vietnam. china is undertaking a massive inoculation program for chickens and birds but very few cases of bird flu reported in humans there. do you think the chinese might be hiding something?

>> we’re pleased that the chinese have been willing to talk about the ones they have. it’s possible there are others there. it’s possible that they don’t know about them. china is a big place, 1.3 billion people and in vast areas of open rural areas where there’s lots of farms so we hope the chinese are being straightforward with us. we are appreciative of the transparency and the fant that they’ll called the world health organization in to help them. that’s a new level of openness and transparency compared to what we saw with sars.

>> the president talked about aid to countries to help them stop the virus at its source. how’s it going with the chinese and other countries getting cooperation in terms of tracking the virus as it develops?

>> if you think of this situation, think of the world as though it’s a vast forest, that is susceptible to fire. the world is currently susceptible to this virus. if there’s a spark that begins to spread among people, it’s like a forest fire. if you see when the spark happens, you can put it out with your foot and damage is averted. but if you miss it and don’t know what happened and it’s allowed to spread without constraint, very quickly, it’s uncontainable and the only option you have at that point is to begin moving people and assets out of its way to limit its damage. that’s exactly where we are with the avian flu. we are trying to put a surveillance system into place so we know when it happens so the world can go there with the right public health approach to limit its spread.

>> in case we don’t, effectively do that, you are holding these conferences around the country to get states and localities geared up. what should they be doing?

>> first of all, pandemic preparedness needs to go through every aspect of a community . it needs to be at the state level, local level. every school needs a plan, every business needs a plan. we are all so interconnected here that if we don’t all have some plan, ultimately the network breaks down. so the first thing we’re asking the states to do is to hold a 50-state pandemic summit where we bring the business community together with education and community and religious leaders and helping them gain a knowledge of how to deal with this.

>> are you afraid of either apathy because it’s not i major threat right now or panic? >> this is a time for us to inform, but not inflame, to inspire preparation, not panic. we do have time to become perhaps the most prepared civilization ever to experience a pandemic.

>> thank you very much, h.h.s. secretary michael leavitt, thank you for joining us. >> large caps or midcaps? u.s. equities or international stocks? the strategy session for investing next year with the co-head of global equities at julius baer investments, stay with us.
点击播报
Listen Market briefing ---Lori (slow)
NYSE --- Greg (slow)
NYSE --- Deb (fast)
J & J --- June (slow)

sending stocks, including retail stocks, lower today. weak sectors today, transports, semiconductors and retail. members of the new york stock exchange tomorrow are expected to approve the big board’s purchase of archipelago holdings. surveys indicate about 90% of the members will vote in favor of the deal. for the exchange members, completing the deal means a big pay day, but also the end of two centuries of being the sole owner of the world’s largest stock exchange. greg miles reports.

>> a vote to approve the nyse’s takeover of archipelago holdings means the 213-year-old exchange will become a for-profit, publicly traded company in 2006. the big board’s 1,366 members would give up ownership of their seats for a piece of the new company, called nyse group inc.

>> there is a tinge of sadness there. we’re no longer owners, we’re stockholders. we’re―we no longer have the identity of an owner. it’s kind of anonymous. it’s like being a stockholder of at&t.

>> each member will receive about ability,000 -- 80,000 shares of the combined company and $300,000 in cash. the package is worth an estimated $5 million. acquiring archipelago, an electronic marketplace, worries some members about their livelihoods this is clearly a big change. conceptually, i think it makes sense for the institution and it should be a terrific combination going forward. but from a practitioner’s viewpoint, from a member who is still active on the trading floor, clearly, you know, it raises some concerns about the immediate future and what role we as floor brokers will or will not be playing as everything unfolds.

>> buying archipelago will make the nyse the world’s second largest publicly traded stock exchange. with the projected market value of $9.3 billion, the big board will rank second behind the deutsche boerse. the deal will give nyse c.e.o. john thain more control. he will not longer need a consensus among the big board’s members. greg miles, bloomberg news.

>> and members will meet at the exchange at 4:30 tomorrow to complete the vote. archipelago shareholders will also vote tomorrow in chicago. separately, two seats on the nyse sold for $4 million today, matching record price set last week. while oil prices were up, that brought back concerns in the stock market . for more on the trading action, here’s a report from deborah kostroun at the big board.

>> when we started out this week, everyone was talking about the dow hitting 11,000. we didn’t see it this week, however, we did get very close and many traders will continue to watch to see if we reach that level next week. closing out this week, the dow and s&p 500 did break their five-week winning streak.

>> we do apologize for that dated piece. let’s move on, here. the bidding war over defibrillator maker guidant has gotten pricier. boston scientific offered $25 billion for guidant, topping an earlier and reduced offer from johnson & johnson by 14%. june grasso has more detail.

>> the c.e.o. of boston scientific says the company sees growth potential in acquiring guidant’s lineup of heart rhythm products. boston scientific said it would pay $72 a share. the bid is 14% higher than the $63.08 that j&j agreed to pay last month for its biggest compet norheart stents. the latest j&j offer was lower than the original offer made a year ago.

>> we thought johnson & johnson had low-balled guidant and that the bid should have been higher for guidant. the $72 is somewhat in line with where we think it ought to be so we think it’s a fair price.

>> guidant is the world’s second biggest maker of implantable defibrillators and pacemakers after medtronic. according to merrill lynch, global demand for defibrillators will reach $5.6 billion this year. guidant recalled more than 100,000 defibrillators in june, leading to federal and state investigations and lawsuits. five months later, grand- j&j cut its takeover price by $4 billion.

>> if you look at medical device companies in the past, they’ve always been able to get back their market share after recalls.

>> neither boston scientific nor j&j have cardiac rhythm management business so both would be entering that market . the question analysts cannot answer is whether j&j will come back with a counter bid. kos chief executive tobin said in a conference call that his company’s revenue would reach more than $9 billion if it bought guidant. shares of medical device makers surged on speculation that all companies are worth more after the fight for guidant. shares of boston scientific and j&j closed lower. guidant, based in indianapolis, says its board will consider the latest offer. back to you.

>> thank you very much. four of the five top u.s. brokers closed their books on 2005 last week and it was the most likely a record year but m&a bankers say 2006 will top it. margaret popper has the story.

>> thank you. brokerage stocks are near record highs as hot markets for mergers and stock sales boost earnings. the amex broker/dealer index includes 12 securities firms and the index has climbed this year. four of the top five independent brokers have november year-ends. bear stearns, goldman, lehman and morgan stanley. analysts estimate their earnings will rise to a record $14.8 billion for fiscal 2005. the boom was fueled by almost $2 trillion of completed mergers this year, that’s the most since 2001 and bankers like morgan stanley’s global head of m&a say merger volume in 2006 could top the $3.3 trillion record set in 2000. sanford bernstien analyst says investment banking businesses across the board bouyed 2005 earnings.

>> m&a is a great business. then we have equity underwriting. we had equity underwriting on the secondary side doing great in 2004 and i.p.o.’s picking up in 2005. so the two high margin businesses were picking up and the business everyone thought would roll over, which was fixed income, didn’t.

>> so far this year, wall street has completed 20% more mergers than in all of 2004. brokers have already underwritten 10% more initial public offerings than last year while bond underwriting so far has beaten last year’s total by 2%. analyst jeff harte of sandler o’neill says that merger activity and stock underwriting and trading will create another record year of earnings for wall street in 2006.

>> we’ll look forward to seeing those numbers. thank you. crude oil rose to a one-month high. heating oil futures rallied as the first major snowstorm blanketed the northeast. colder weather in the midwest and europe also helped push nymex crude futures 1% higher, closing just under $60 a barrel. heating oil futures ended the session 1% higher and while natural gas futures fell, earlier in the session they rallied to near record prices. the first nationwide blast of winter weather boosted demand for heating fuels. a.g. edwards’ bill o’grady says early cold snaps are significant in that they’re more likely to create a scramble on the part of distributors to increase supply. market watchers say last week’s greater-than-expected drop in the nation’s crude stockpiles raises concerns.

>> i think they built seven out of eight weeks in a row and last week was the first significant draw and our first cold snap on the east coast with bone chilling temperatures over the weekend have brought us to near $60. so going forward, is the question of how it reacts in the next day or two, if we settle around $60 or if this is just a reaction and we go below $60.

>> futures rallied 20% in the last five days for natural gas. 133 confirmed cases of avian flu, some americans stocking up on the drug, tamiflu. michael mckee will speak with michael leavitt, u.s. health and human services secretary, on the latest bird flu plan as bloomberg’s “after the bell” continues.

Interview: Allegiant Asset Mgmt---Stine, Brian---Investment Strategist

>> while some investors are worried about another year of modest stock returns, our next guest says equities are cheap compared to bonds and sees more room for stocks to rally in 2006. he is brian stine, investment administrative at allegiant asset management, helping to oversee $27 billion for his firm. welcome, brian.

>> good to be here.

>> you say equities are cheap versus bonds. some might say the stock market is overbought since november.

>> certainly the stock market ‘s had a remarkable rebound in november, helping put us in positive territory year to date. nevertheless, we think there’s more upside to stocks even perhaps this year but certainly in 2006.

>> does it have to do with asset class? we had mid and small cap indices leading, outperforming the past couple of years and now there’s talk that it’s time to snap up large cap names.

>> certainly, we prefer large cap over small cap. large corporations have record amounts of cash on their balance sheets that has to be put to work and we think that will be put to work in a way that will be shareholder friendly this time. having said that, though, we’re positive on all stocks relative to bonds. we think we’re in for a period of stable or declining interest rates which should support p.e. ratios and rising p.e. ratios generally means rising prices.

>> do you see value in fixed income?

>> we do. we are not negative on fixed income. we recommend an overweight in equities and underweight in bonds but we don’t dislike bonds. we think bonds will do ok, interest rates will stabilize and perhaps decline next year but we see much more upside to the equity markets .

>> you said you like utilities and banking stocks, both industries sensitive to interest rate increases.

>> that’s correct. we think there are opportunities in those sectors that offer nice dividends, so utilities, in particular some of the bank stocks, look relatively attractive given their dividend yields.

>> some of the financial indices are hitting record highs. do you think there’s more room to grow?

>> we do. we think the outlook continues to be positive not only for the economy but also for that sector, for the finance sector.

>> and you tell us you are cautious on energy stocks. you call them “dicey,” but this is a huge industry so which sector specifically would you avoid within energy?

>> we’re concerned about energy prices. we have the runup in oil and natural gas prices because of the hurricanes but when that happened, we started conserving gasoline, gasoline prices have dropped quite a bit. there have been a lot of speculators in those markets causing a lot of the volatility, the runup, so we’re cautious of that sector and therefore we would not want to be overweight energy at this point.

>> as far as the market as a whole, you do think there’s room for the rally to continue. can you give me a time frame on that?

>> well, we thought it would rally most of the year and it didn’t. it’s been a phenomenon this past month of november. we think, certainly, december we could continue to rally but we’ll probably be, over the next quarter, as the market comes to realize the fed is finished, we’ve reached neutral, interest rates stabilize and perhaps go down so we could see a rally in the near future over the coming months.

>> does the dow hit 11,000 before the year is out?

>> a good chance it will, yes.

>> so the bond market , returning to interest rates, pricing in at least two more rate increases. we heard from chairman greenspan today. let’s say we get three rate increases, will stocks be able to withstand that?

>> that will make it difficult for stocks. our own view is that the fed may stop at 4.25 or 4.50. 4.50 means the fed tightens twice more and when chairman bernanke takes over, he has a clean slate with the fed at neutral. if, however, it looks like the fed will continue, it could be a rocky path for stocks for a little bit until we reach the neutral rate.

>> speaking of greenspan, he warned today about the widening federal budget deficit and potential for serious economic ramifications. should we start thinking about protecting investments now?

>> no. we think it still looks pretty rosy. the economy is very healthy. your previous guest talked about employment growth. we think that will continue. certainly, we have a lot of things lining up for the economy and therefore stocks. we have energy prices that have stabilized, potentially can go lower. we have the fed almost finished tightening and we have a lot of stimulus because of rebuilding in the gulf coast that will hit the first and second quarters of 2006.

>> i want to ask you perhaps what might be market headwinds. we did have a lot of rosy economic data this week but we also learned that the retail sales and same-store sales numbers weren’t overly impressive. are you concerned about the consumer?

>> i thinke bit. ihe main risk would be housing as it might affect consumers. the risk would be if the fed goes too far and they hurt housing quite a bit, then that would put the consumer at risk in terms of supporting the economy. we don’t think that’s the likely path but that’s probably the biggest risk, if there is indeed a housing bubble and it turns out that it bursts.

>> brian, thanks for your time today.

>> good to be here.

>> brian stine, investment administrative with allegiant asset management. the nfl announced that the rolls stones who have a combined age of 247 years, will perform at the half-time show at the super bowl in detroit. and “money & sports” is coming up. up.
点击播报
Listen Market briefing ---Lori (slow)
Interview: US Labor Secretary---Chao, Elaine---Politician / Govt Official

35 points, closing lower on the day and the week. but in the last half hour of trading, we saw the s&p and nasdaq come back, closing on the s&p at 1265 and on the nasdaq, 2273. the nasdaq, the only index higher on the week. strict in the s&p in the semiconductor sector along with healthcare. the nasdaq was led higher by apple computer as well as starbucks. for more perspective on today’s jobs report and economic outlook from a bush administration official, michael mckee is with labor secretary elaine chao. mike?

>> thank you very much. obviously good news for the administration.

>> good news for workers.

>> the president coming out to the rose garden saying the economic horizon is as bright as it’s been for a long time but polls show americans don’t believe that. an america’s research survey out last week said that 50% of americans think the economy is getting worse and 43% believe we’re in recession. why the disconnect?

>> that’s certainly not true because this week’s jobs report caps a very good week of economic news. the third-quarter g.d.p. growth was 4.3%. far in excess of what was expected. productivity increases very high for an industrial nation like us. and there’s been widespread gains across all sectors so we are seeing an employment rate that is holding steady about 5%, which is actually lower than the average unemployment rate of the decade of the 1990’s. but overall, the economy is strong and growing stronger.

>> mr. bush has been talking a lot about iraq and immigration and other issues. should he talk more about the economy?

>> we hope the media. will help us about that, as well because he does talk about and he’s very concerned about ensuring the economic security of all americans but it’s hard to get the news out amidst the other clutter but let me also say that in terms of overall jobs growth, we have seen about 183,000 new jobs created every month since may of 2000. this is the 30th month of straight job creation and we’re also seeing average hourly earnings increase. in fact, in october, the average hourly earnings went up by more than 10 cents an hour, which is very good number that we’ve not seen in over a decade.

>> you mentioned that we have seen this many months of job growth but it has been sort of saw toothed. last two months were down. we’ve had a jagged pattern of job growth. are you convinced we are now in a solid recovery where we’ll see these kind of numbers month after month?

>> the last two months, job growth numbers were weakened because of the hurricanes, katrina, wilma and rita and it’s an impressive fact that our economy can sustain those blows and yet still continue with strong job growth. we’re seeing that the impacted areas in the gulf have not had as great an economic on the national economic scene as we originally feared. in fact, what we’re seeing now is a tremendous period of rebuilding and reconstruction in the gulf region to the point where we’re seeing a shortage of skilled and unskilled workers in that area.

>> what is the labor department going do to help the people out there? is there anything the federal government can do to move workers into that area?

>> it’s up to individuals as to where they want to go but the department of labor is very much engaged in getting immediate income assistance to people who need help so before the winds of the hurricanes died down, we were already on the ground helping people access unemployment insurance, disaster unemployment assistance if they so wished and we’ve been very focused on getting moneys down to that region. i just signed off on $200 million to create about 47,000 new jobs in that region. what we’re seeing, again, is after every natural disaster there’s a period of rebuilding, reconstruction and that’s happening in the gulf area and we have a dearth of construction workers which leads me to the other point, which is, the construction sector has seen employment at an all-time high and we’re seeing a tremendous need for construction workers, the healthcare sector needs workers. other sectors that are seeking workers and that have seen employment growth that is above average are hospitality and leisure, financial and professional services. so what we’re seeing, again, very strong growth across all sectors but in particular, those sectors that i’ve just mentioned have seen very strong employment growth.

>> one sector where there is concern is the auto industry. the united auto workers says there’s a real possibility of a strike against delphi, idling general motors and their suppliers. anything the government can or should be doing to prevent a strike or if there is a strike, to step in?

>> we’re very concerned about the situation and in particular very concerned about the pensions of these large companies. manufacturing has been on the doldrums since august of 2000 and manufacturing worldwide has been on the decline, as well. we are seeing a skills gap in our country. we have the majority of new jobs being created requiring more education and more―higher skills so that’s why we’re very concerned and we’re very focused on getting training and increasing the educational levels of our work force.

>> just 30 seconds, quickly tell me whether or not congress will pass pension legislation this year.

>> we’re very concerned about the pension situation and the president proposed the pension bill and we will not sign a bill that will be weaker than current law. >> thank you very much, labor secretary, elaine chao.

>> thanks so much.

>> stocks, or bonds, large or midcaps? we’ll talk to an investment strategist who oversees almost $30 billion in assets. learn where he’s putting his money next year. stay with us.