胡锦涛访美谈什么？

Mistrust and mutuality: why US-China links are now in flux

When Jiang Zemin, the last Chinese president to visit Washington, touched down in the US capital in 1997, Bill Clinton, then president, expressed the modest hope that the Sino-US relationship would be characterised by partnership rather than conflict.


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There was good reason for the poverty of his aspirations. Annual two-way trade between the US and China stood at not much more than $75bn. China's efforts to join the World Trade Organisation were stalled by difficult negotiations with the US. A US congressional committee had delivered a sharp symbolic rebuke by agreeing a bill to deny visas to Chinese officials deemed to be human-rights violators.

On the eve of the visit of Hu Jintao, Chinese president, this week, two-way trade has reached a record $285bn (￡163bn, �235bn) and China, a WTO member since 2001, has become the fourth largest export market for the US. Meanwhile China's $243bn in exports to the US comprise its largest single market.

Human rights, Washington's central concern a decade ago, is a less pressing issue. The administration of George W. Bush, US president, has welcomed China as a leading international power and is seeking its co-operation on everything from North Koreato Iran to the broader war on terrorism.

In spite of the popular conception that tensions over the yawning trade deficit and China's failure fully to revalue its currency have left the two sides in a state of simmering hostility, analysts and officials in both the US and China insist the relationship has rarely been stronger. Yet fears persist that it is far more fragile than the numbers suggest.

"There is a depth to the economic relationship that cannot easily be jettisoned," says a senior US administration official. "It provides ballast for the relationship as a whole." But he warned: "We are at a more politically troubling period than perhaps ever before with China, at least on the economic side."

That growing US-China links should nevertheless be accompanied by rising fears about whether that growth will endure is unsurprising, given the rapid rise of China on the world stage.

Peter Yeo, a top Democratic staff aide on the US House of Representatives international relations committee, says he has seen a dramatic transformation in the past decade. "There's a real staying power to this relationship that wasn't there before. We need them as much as they need us."

Many Chinese officials and academics agree. "The rising hostility in the US is mainly due to economic and financial bickering, which are not inimical to China's interests and relatively easier to compromise on," says Zhu Feng of Peking University.

But there are concerns on both sides that the bonds linking Washington and Beijing are fragile. Most of the pessimism centres on the growing US trade deficit with China, which reached $202bn last year and shows no signs of slowing. China's foreign reserves last month surpassed $850bn, the largest in the world, giving Beijing growing economic leverage over the US.

Angered by the imbalances, the US Senate is putting together legislation that would threaten China with modest sanctions, such as bans on US government trade and investment insurance, if China's currency is not revalued more rapidly. The threat of a more serious punishment - legislation sponsored by senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham that would slap 27.5 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports - has not disappeared, although both returned from a visit to China last month impressed with Beijing's efforts to reform the currency regime.

When Mr Hu arrives at the Boeing airfield in Seattle today to kick off his cross-country tour, his main task will be to reassure the US that the benefits of its relationship with China far outweigh the trade concerns. Mr Bush last week called on the Chinese president to "help Americans understand the importance of a free trading world", noting that the deficit with China had left many in the US "wondering where's the equity in trade".

Mr Hu may struggle to win the hearts of Americans. While confident and composed, he is also highly orthodox and unwilling to stray too far from his carefully prepared briefs.

Unlike Mr Jiang, his predecessor, who enjoyed karaoke and showing off his limited English, Mr Hu is self-contained and displays little desire to cultivate personal bonds with the foreign leaders that he meets.

This trip will offer him his broadest exposure to the US, and vice versa. Starting in Seattle, he will visit the Microsoft campus and have dinner at the home of Bill Gates, the company's billionaire founder-cum-philanthropist. He finishes with a speech at Yale University, where he will have an opportunity to lay out his personal vision of China's role in the international community.

Mr Hu's itinerary after he leaves the US is in some ways equally revealing of Beijing's preoccupations. He will travel on to Saudi Arabia, Kenya, Nigeria and Morocco, where China has burgeoning interests, mostly in securing oil supplies. But it is Thursday's summit meeting with Mr Bush that will largely determine the success or failure of the trip. Washington is seeking clear signals that Beijing is prepared to deal with the broad range of trade irritants, from intellectual property rights violations to regulatory barriers to imports. "What we've been stressing to the Chinese is it really will be in everybody's best interests if they take these problems seriously," says the senior US official. There was "a deep-seated concern about whether China is playing by the rules we agreed to when we allowed them into the WTO."

For both sides, the goal is not a final resolution of the disputes over trade but rather a means of managing them in a responsible way. The US, for instance, filed a WTO case this month over China's barriers to imported car parts and said that, as a mature trading power, China should expect to be the target of more complaints.

In Beijing, the government seems resigned to a protracted period of trade tensions, largely because the main structural factors behind the present imbalance - the low US savings rate and weak Chinese consumption - will not change in the foreseeable future. "In the next five to 10 years, I think China will face a lot of trade disputes and protectionism," says Li Yushi of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Co-operation, a government think-tank. "But such disputes are normal, because our foreign trade is growing so fast."

China's latest five-year economic plan, announced in March, envisages annual growth in exports of 10 per cent, compared with an average of nearly 20 per cent annually over the last decade. The relatively low figure reflects the plan's broader aims to wean the Chinese economy off dependence on wasteful infrastructure spending and marginally profitable exports.

But at the moment it is a distant goal. In March, exports rose by 28 per cent year-on-year, far outpacing import growth and allowing China to record a near-record monthly surplus of $11.2bn.

Another senior US official agreed improvement is unlikely to come quickly. "All of these policy changes will operate with a lag, and we could see a deterioration before we see an improvement, and we need to do a good job of explaining that lag effect."

Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, sees little chance of the summit helping to relieve the trade tensions. He says that, in briefings with top administration officials and members of Congress: "We get the strong sense that the degree of frustration and impatience with China is now accelerating very, very sharply and unlikely to be assuaged by modest concessions and a few orders of products that would probably have been bought anyway."

Given its high profile combined with the modesty of its likely outcome, the visit "may actually exacerbate the problem rather than ease it," he says. The security relationship remains similarly fragile. In its second National Security Strategy, released last month, the White House said that the US is prepared to welcome "the emergence of a China that is peaceful and prosperous and co-operates with us to address common challenges and mutual interests". But it warned: "Our strategy seeks to encourage China to make the right strategic choices for its people, while we hedge against other possibilities."

Ideally, according to Washington's script, China would not only work with the US, but would do so willingly, from a conviction of shared global interests rather than simply out of a short-term defensive pragmatism. China has joined a host of international institutions in recent years, ranging from the WTO to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and become more active in others, such as the United Nations. But it has joined many of these institutions reluctantly, mostly in order to improve relations with the US, says Shen Dingli of Fudan University in Shanghai.

While the two have worked closely to keep pressure on North Korea, co-op???-eration has been spottier on Iran, currently Washington's central preoccupation. Beijing has criticised Iran for pursuing a nuclear programme but indicated it may not support international sanctions if diplomatic efforts fail.

Taiwan remains a particularly difficult issue. The two sides have worked hard to avoid a confrontation, but their bedrock policies - China's commitment to re-unification and the US's to military support for Taiwan- remain fundamentally at odds, according to Professor Shen. The US also remains concerned about the pace of China's military build-up. Beijing's defence budget, which is set to rise another 15 per cent this year, is the fastest growing peacetime budget in the world.

Energy issues are looming larger. In its quest to ensure ample access to energy, China has courted Venezuela, Angola, Sudan, Iran and Zimbabwe. "At some point in time you are judged by the company you keep, and that is not always the best company to keep," says Richard Armitage, the former US deputy secretary of state.

For both countries, the challenge in Mr Hu's visit will be to continue to define what it means for China to be "a responsible stakeholder" in the international system, a concept introduced last September by Robert Zoellick, the current US deputy secretary of state. For the US, success will be measured not only by progress on trade disputes but also on the big strategic issues, such as Iran and weapons proliferation. For China, Prof Zhu of Peking University says, Mr Zoellick's characterisation had bolstered Beijing's conviction that the two countries could collaborate on a range of issues regionally and globally.

In spite of the political tensions over trade, there is optimism that, if carefully managed, the relationship can continue to grow stronger.

Says Prof Zhu: "Since the end of the second world war, there hasn't been a single case [in which] trade frictions have catastrophically destabilised a relationship and fundamentally changed its nature."
胡锦涛访美谈什么？



中
国国家主席上一次访问华盛顿是在1997年。当江泽民抵达美国首都时，时任美国总统克林顿(Bill Clinton)表达了一个颇为有限的愿望：他希望中美关系是伙伴式的，而非冲突式的。

他的期望之所以有限，是有充分理由的。当时，美中年度贸易额略高于750亿美元。中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的努力，因与美国之间的艰难谈判而陷入停滞。美国国会的一个委员会赞成一项法案，拒绝给被认为侵犯人权的中国官员颁发签证，表达了一种带有强烈象征意义的谴责。

在中国国家主席胡锦涛本周访美前夕，两国贸易额已达到创纪录的2850亿美元。自2001年加入世贸组织以来，中国已成为美国第四大出口市场，而中国对美出口额高达2430亿美元，使美国成为其最大的单一市场。


美国政府10年前重点关注的人权问题，现在已不那么紧迫。布什(George W.?Bush)政府已接纳中国作为一个全球大国，并在多方面寻求与其合作 ― 从朝鲜到伊朗问题、乃至更为广泛的反恐战争。

美中关系空前牢固

尽管许多人认为，日益扩大的贸易逆差、以及中国未能让人民币充分升值所造成的紧张形势，使两国处于一种敌意不断酝酿的状态中。但中美两国的分析人士和官员都坚持认为，目前两国关系的牢固程度几乎前所未有。不过仍有人担心，双方之间的关系要比数字显示的脆弱得多。

“双方的经济关系达到了一定的深度，无法轻易放弃，”一位美国政府高级官员表示，“它为两国的总体关系‘压阵’。”但他警告称：“至少在经济方面，与以往相比，我们与中国也许处于政治上最不安定的时期。”

鉴于中国在世界舞台上的迅速崛起，不断发展的美中关系将伴随有关这种“发展”能否持久的愈演愈烈的担忧，这并不令人惊讶。

美国众议院国际关系委员会民主党高级幕僚叶欧(Peter Yeo)表示，过去10年间，他看到了巨大的转变。“这种关系存在一种真正的持久力，这在以前是没有的。我们需要他们，而他们也同样需要我们。”

许多中国官员和学者对此表示赞同。北京大学的朱锋表示：“美国国内不断抬头的敌对情绪，主要是源于经济和金融方面的争吵，这不会损害中国的利益，而且相对而言比较容易达成妥协。”


但双方都有人担心，华盛顿和北京之间的纽带是脆弱的。绝大部分悲观情绪都集中在不断扩大的美国对华贸易逆差上，去年，这一逆差达到2020亿美元，并且没有显示出增长放缓的迹象。中国的外汇储备上月突破了8500亿美元，位居全球首位，这赋予中国对美国越来越大的经济影响力。

美国参议院对这种失衡感到恼火，它正在考虑进行立法，以适度的制裁来威胁中国，例如，如果中国方面不加快人民币升值的速度，就在美国政府业务和投资保险方面实施禁令。参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)和林赛?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)曾提出，要对所有从中国进口的商品征收27.5%的关税，尽管这两人上月访华归来时，对中国政府改革汇率体制的努力留下了深刻印象，但这种更为严厉的惩罚的威胁尚未消失。

当胡锦涛周一抵达西雅图波音机场，开始其出访行程时，他的主要任务将是打消美国的疑虑，重申中美关系的益处远远超出了贸易方面的问题。布什上周曾呼吁中国国家主席“帮助美国人理解自由贸易世界的重要性”，他指出，对华贸易逆差使许多美国人“对贸易公平何在产生了疑问。”

胡锦涛在赢得美国民心方面可能存在一定困难。尽管沉着、自信，胡锦涛同时也非常正统，不愿大幅偏离精心准备的大纲。

江泽民喜欢卡拉OK，并卖弄自己有限的英文。而胡锦涛与他的前任不同，是个沉默寡言的人，很少表现出与会面的外国领导人培养私人关系的意愿。

到盖茨家做客

此行将为胡锦涛提供一个最广泛地接触美国的机会，也让美国最全面地了解他。从西雅图开始，胡锦涛将参观微软(Microsoft)总部，并在亿万富翁、微软公司创始人及慈善家比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)家进餐。离开美国之前，胡锦涛将在耶鲁大学发表演讲，在那里，他将有机会就中国在国际社会中的角色问题，阐述自己的愿景。

从某些方面来看，胡锦涛离开美国后的行程，同样表明了中国政府的当务之急。他将访问沙特、肯尼亚、尼日利亚和摩洛哥。中国在这些国家有着越来越大的利益，主要是在保障石油供应方面。不过，本周四与布什总统的首脑会谈，很大程度上将决定胡锦涛此行的成败。华盛顿方面希望得到明确的信号，表明北京准备处理两国间广泛的贸易纷争：从侵犯知识产权问题，到针对进口的监管壁垒。 “我们一直在向中国人强调的是，认真对待这些问题真的符合所有人的利益，”美国高级官员表示。“对于中国能否按照我们允许它加入世贸组织时、双方一致同意的规则行事，人们有着深深的担忧。”

负责任地管理争端

对双方而言，目标不是最终解决各项贸易争端，而是形成一套负责任地管理争端的机制。举例来说，本月美国就中国对进口汽车零部件设置障碍问题，向世贸组织提出申诉，同时称，作为一个成熟的贸易国，中国应准备面临更多的申诉。

北京似乎已对旷日持久的贸易紧张局势有心理准备，很大程度上是因为当前贸易失衡背后的主要结构因素――美国的低储蓄率和中国消费疲软――在可预见的将来不会发生改变。“未来5至10年，我认为中国将面临许多的贸易争端和保护主义，”政府智囊机构“外经贸部对外经贸合作研究院”李雨时表示。“但这些争端是正常的，因为我们的对外贸易发展得如此迅速。”

中国在3月份发布了最新的5年经济计划，预计年度出口增幅为10%，低于过去10年间近20%的增长率。这一相对较低的数字表明，该计划更广泛的目标是，使中国经济摆脱对浪费的基建投资以及利润微薄的出口的依赖。

但现在来看，这是一个遥远的目标。3月份，中国出口较上年同期增长28%，增幅远远超过进口增长，并使中国当月贸易顺差达到112亿美元，接近历史最高水平。

另一位美国高官对改善不太会迅速实现的观点表示认同。他表示：“所有这些政策方面的改变将伴随出现一种滞后，在出现改善之前我们可能还会看到恶化。需要努力解释这种滞后效应。”

华盛顿国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)所长弗雷德?柏格斯滕(Fred Bergsten)认为，此次首脑会谈很难起到帮助缓解贸易紧张形势的作用。他介绍说，在与美国最高级别的政府官员及国会议员召开的简报会中：“我们强烈地感觉到，美国对中国的挫折感和急躁程度正在急剧上升，并且不太可能因为中方有限的让步和若干订单得到缓解。这些订单涉及的产品本来就是要买的。”

《国家安全战略报告》

他表示，此次访问高调，而成果可能有限，它“实际上可能加剧、而非缓和这一问题”。同样，中美两国在安全方面的关系仍然脆弱。白宫在上月发布的第二份《国家安全战略报告》(National Security Strategy)中表示，美国将欢迎“出现一个和平与繁荣的中国，一个与美国合作应对共同挑战、处理共同利益的中国”。但白宫也警告称：“我们的战略宗旨，是鼓励中国为其人民做出正确的战略选择，同时我们也对其它可能性做好应对准备。”


按照华盛顿的“脚本”，在理想状态下，中国不仅与美国展开合作，而且还将在共同全球利益的信念指引下，自动自发地与美国合作，而非仅仅出于短期、防卫性的实用主义目的。近年来，中国已加入世贸组织、核供应国集团(Nuclear Suppliers Group)等许多国际机构，在联合国(UN)等其它组织也趋向积极。但上海复旦大学的沈丁立教授称，中国加入许多这些机构是不情愿的，主要是为了改善与美国的关系。

尽管中美两国曾密切合作对朝鲜施压，但在美国当前最为关注的伊朗问题上，双方的合作比较疏远。北京方面曾批评伊朗开展核计划，但称，如果外交努力失败，中国可能不会支持对伊朗实施国际制裁。

台湾问题

台湾仍然是头等难题。沈丁立表示，尽管中美双方努力避免发生冲突，但两国的基本政策仍然存在根本上的分歧――中国誓言实现两岸统一，而美国则许诺对台湾提供军事支持。美国对中国军力增强的步伐也感到担心。中国的国防预算今年将再提高15%，是全球增长最快的和平时期国防预算。

能源问题也越来越重要。为保障能源供应，中国与委内瑞拉、安哥拉、苏丹、伊朗和津巴布韦发展了友好关系。美国前副国务卿理查德?阿米蒂奇(Richard Armitage)表示：“有时，人们会根据你交往的伙伴来判断你，而这些伙伴并不总是最好的。”

“负责任的利益相关者”

对于两国而言，胡锦涛访美的挑战，都将是继续定义中国作为国际体系中“负责任的利益相关者”(responsible stakeholder)的含义。这个概念是美国副国务卿罗伯特?佐利克(Robert Zoellick)于去年9月提出的。对美国来说，成功的标准，不仅包括两国贸易争端解决的进展，还包括两国在重大战略问题(如伊朗问题以及核武器扩散)上的一致程度。对中国来说，北京大学朱锋教授称，佐利克的说法增强了中国政府的信心，即两国可以在一系列问题上展开区域及全球合作。

尽管中美两国在贸易问题上出现了政治紧张局势，但仍有乐观人士认为，如果小心处理的话，两国关系能更为强劲地向前发展。

朱锋教授表示：“自二战结束以来，还没有出现因贸易摩擦而严重影响两国关系、并从根本上改变关系性质的案例。”

美中互动无须“零和”
America and China must build new bridges in business

The first state visit to America by Hu Jintao, Chinese president, next month presents an important opportunity for both countries to establish a more productive path to further mutual interests. With the US as China's second largest trading partner and China as America's third largest our countries are economically intertwined in such a way that we are increasingly dependent on each other's success. Yet notwithstanding the incentives we have to work together, the relationship between the US and China is in need of improvement.


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Throughout the 1990s, the US business community was a forceful advocate for China, especially in supporting its accession in 2001 to the World Trade Organisation - an important milestone in China's rise. But as US businesses continue to encounter restrictions on their access to China's markets and as China's enforcement of intellectual property rights remains weak, the US business community faces challenges in continuing to be an advocate for China.

In response to growing US trade deficits, the senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham have introduced a bill to impose an across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports in an effort to influence China's exchange rate policy. Opponents of the bill believe the renminbi exchange rate should be driven by market dynamics and international monetary co-operation, not by punitive US legislation. But whether one agrees or disagrees with this proposed law, it offers an early warning to Chinese leaders that the US business community is in jeopardy of losing political support for policies that would promote China's economic growth through open trade and investment liberalisation.

In February Rob Portman, US trade representative, issued a review of US-China trade policy, emphasising that "China must play its part in addressing the global imbalances that have arisen during the past four years of rapid global growth". Mr Portman expressed "concern that the US-China trade relationship lacks balance in opportunity, as well as equity and durability".

The time has come to strengthen the constructive relationship between the US and China. China can start by demonstrating its willingness to remove barriers and open markets, enforce protection of intellectual property rights, strengthen its currency and signal its readiness to level the playing field by, for example, joining the WTO agreement on government procurement. China also has a responsibility to play a leadership role in the successful completion of the Doha multilateral trade negotiations, which could help hundreds of millions of people who now try to survive on less than $2 a day.

The business community needs to help the American public understand the importance of our relationship with China. We need to rebut calls for counter???-productive, protectionist measures and support a co-ordinated, comprehensive China policy that addresses key issues and provides for effective communication to the public. That policy should include making the Group of Eight nations the Group of Nine with the addition of China.

Our China policy must be set in the context of a policy for Asia. The need to strengthen relationships and deepen understanding between Asia and the US has never been more vital. Priorities include negotiating and implementing free trade agreements with South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, and Vietnam's accession to the WTO.

We in the US must also address impediments to American competitiveness, understanding that this issue will not be solved through protectionist legislation. We need, for example, to strengthen our educational infra???-structure to boost student performance and close achievement gaps; increase competencies in subjects such as maths, science and engineering; ensure that our students acquire the skills - including language skills - necessary to succeed in international and intercultural environments; and embed continuous learning in our culture.

This is a big agenda and now is the time for the US and China to move forward. We must make headway on areas of mutual interest, continue a constructive dialogue aimed at removing impasses and improve the relationship. Some critics see China's economic rise as a zero-sum game, where China's gain is our loss. China needs to work with us to prove the critics wrong.

The writer is chairman, president and chief executive officer of The McGraw-Hill Companies, the global information services provider. He is chairman of the International Trade and Investment Taskforce of the Business Roundtable and chairman of the Emergency Committee for American Trade
美中互动无须“零和”


中
国国家主席胡锦涛即将对美国进行的首次国事访问，为两国建立更有成效的途径以增进相互利益提供了重要机会。美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴，中国是美国第三大贸易伙伴，两国在经济上相互交织，越来越依赖彼此的成功。但是，尽管有这些推动合作的激励因素，美中关系仍需要改进。

在整个90年代，美国商界都力挺中国，尤其是在2001年支持中国加入世贸组织，这是中国崛起的重要里程碑。但由于美国企业进入中国市场仍遭限制，且中国执行知识产权不力，美国商界在继续支持中国方面承受挑战。


作为对美国贸易逆差日益扩大的回应，美国参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)和林塞?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)提出了一项法案，拟对中国进口商品全面征收关税，以期影响中国的汇率政策。该法案的反对者认为，人民币汇率应由市场力量和国际货币合作推动，而不是由惩罚性的美国立法来推动。但不管人们同不同意这项提议的法案，它都给中国领导人提供了一个预警，即美国商界有政策方面有丧失政治支持的危险，而这些政策会通过开放贸易和投资自由化来推动中国的经济增长。


今年2月，美国贸易代表罗布?波特曼(Rob Portman)发表了一份美中贸易政策评论，强调说，“过去4年快速的全球增长产生了全球失衡，中国必须在解决这种失衡方面发挥自身作用”。波特曼表达了“美中贸易关系在机会、公平和持久性方面缺乏平衡的担忧”。


加强美中建设性关系的时候到了。中国首先可以证明它愿意消除壁垒、开放市场、执行知识产权保护、让人民币升值，并表明愿意创造公平竞争环境，如加入政府采购方面的世贸协议。中国也有责任在成功完成多哈(Doha)回合多边贸易谈判过程中发挥领导作用，这可以帮助数亿每天靠不足2美元生存的人民。


商界需要帮助美国公众理解美中关系的重要性。我们需要驳斥那些要求实施适得其反的保护主义措施的呼声，支持协调、完善的对华政策，以解决关键问题并与公众进行有效交流。该政策应该让中国加入八国集团(G8)，使之成为九国集团。



我们的对华政策必须在亚洲政策的背景下制定。加强亚洲和美国之间的关系和相互理解，从来没有像现在这样重要。当务之急包括与韩国、泰国、马来西亚谈判并实施自由贸易协议，也包括越南加入世贸组织。


美国也必须解决妨碍美国竞争力的因素，明白保护主义立法不会解决这个问题。例如，我们必须增强我们的教育基础设施，以提高学生的成绩并缩小成就差距，提高数学、科学和工程等学科的竞争力，保证我们的学生掌握包括语言技能在内的各项技能――这是他们在国际和跨文化环境中取得成功所必需的，并且让终身学习深入我们的文化。


这是个庞大的议程，现在正是推动美中向前迈进的时候。我们必须在相互利益领域取得进展，继续进行旨在打破僵局、改善关系的建设性对话。某些批评人士把中国的经济崛起看成零和游戏，认为中国得益就是我们的损失。中国需要与我们合作，一起证明这些批评人士是错误的。


作者是全球信息服务提供商麦格劳-希尔公司(McGraw-Hill Companies)董事长、总裁兼首席执行官，也是商业圆桌会议(Business Roundtable)国际贸易和投资特派小组主席，美国贸易紧急委员会(Emergency Committee for American Trade)主席

中美必须合作
China and the US need to work together

To judge by the build-up to Hu Jintao's America visit this week, one would be forgiven for thinking the health of US-China relations was measured solely by the renminbi's dollar value.


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On this, President George W. Bush, who usually paints America's choices in black and white, is subtler than some of his critics, having conceded US-China relations are "complex". That characterisation might equally apply to Mr Bush's often contradictory stance towards China since taking office.

The Chinese president will hear plenty of noise this week about the link between China's deliberately undervalued currency and America's widening current account deficit. He should bear in mind that not all the criticisms can be dismissed as populist grandstanding in advance of US mid-term elections. It would also be worthwhile for Mr Hu to recall just how far Mr Bush has travelled in his view of China since 2001.

On coming to office, Mr Bush singled out China as his biggest foreign policy concern. It was branded a "strategic competitor" in a calculated shift from Bill Clinton's hopes of turning Beijing into a "strategic partner". Relations took a dangerous nosedive when the Chinese forced down America's EP3 spyplane in a tense 10-day stand off.

The attacks on the twin towers a few weeks later changed many things, among them Washington's realisation that China's support would be indispensable in helping it defeat Islamist terrorist groups around the world. September 11 also gave Mr Bush more leeway to pump-prime the US economy in a shift that has been at least partly - if inadvertently - responsible for more than doubling America's trade deficit with China to $202bn (�166.8bn) last year.

Partly because of Mr Bush's fiscal unorthodoxy, the US is now lumbered with a current account deficit of more than 7 per cent of gross domestic product - of which China accounts for one-quarter. Meanwhile, in part because of Beijing's reluctance to permit domestic consumption to rise, China's surplus is running at 7 per cent of GDP.

Clearly, imbalances on this scale are untenable. But nothing good will emerge unless Mr Hu and Mr Bush can resist domestic pressures to scapegoat each other and agree on the need to reorient their economies in tandem. In spite of the low odds, China and the US must also convince the other large surplus countries of east Asia to participate alongside the renminbi in a co-ordinated revaluation.

The challenge of unwinding global imbalances will be the most important item when the two leaders meet tomorrow. But Mr Bush should not allow the currency controversy to crowd out or tarnish the broader array of issues they should confront together.

There are many in the Bush administration who still view China's rise as an unalloyed threat to US interests. John Negroponte, the director of national intelligence, recently de-scribed China as a "peer competitor". Perhaps the hawks are right in identifying Beijing's rapidly growing defence spending as evidence that it eventually plans to challenge US pre-eminence. Yet it is hard to imagine a satisfactory solution to any of Mr Bush's most pressing foreign policy challenges without involving China more effectively. Of these, the nuclear weapons programmes of Iran and North Korea top the list. On both, China has been lukewarm, neither opposing US objectives directly nor assisting them as much as it could. With North Korea, China fears instability in its backyard as much as it fears a nuclear Pyongyang. On Iran, China's priority is to secure energy supplies, which clashes with Washington's request for its support in threatening international sanctions. How China behaves will also have an impact on whether Mr Bush is able to strengthen US energy security. A recent congressional study said US gas prices would rise by 15 per cent in the next five years if China's oil demand continued to grow at its current rate.

These are just a sample of the areas where better US-China co-operation would be critical for the world. In that regard, Robert Zoellick, deputy secretary of state, has shown more savvy than some of his colleagues in appealing to China's better instincts to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system. As a Texan, Mr Bush will recall that you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.
中美必须合作


从胡锦涛本周访美前的情况来判断，也许有人会认为，美中关系的良好程度可完全由人民币兑美元汇率来衡量。

在这个问题上，通常黑白分明地表述美国的选择的布什总统 (George W. Bush)，态度比一些批评他的人士要微妙一些，他承认美中关系很“复杂”。这一描述，或许同样也适用于布什上任以来往往自相矛盾的对华立场。

中国国家主席胡锦涛本周访美时将听到大量呼声，涉及中国刻意压低人民币汇率与美国日益扩大的经常账户赤字之间的联系。他应该记住，并非所有批评都可以被视为美国中期选举前为博取民意而作出的姿态。胡锦涛也不妨回忆一下，自2001年以来，布什对中国的看法有了多大的改变。


布什上任时，就挑出中国作为他外交政策中最关切的问题。中国被他烙上了“战略竞争者”的烙印，借此刻意背离克林顿(Bill Clinton) 把北京转变成“战略合作伙伴”的希望。中国将美国EP3侦察机迫降后，两国出现长达10天的紧张对峙局面，关系急转直下，十分危险。

几个月后，美国世贸双塔遭到袭击，令许多事情发生了变化。其中之一是，华盛顿意识到，要击败世界各地的伊斯兰恐怖主义组织，中国的支持不可或缺。“9/11”还给了布什更大空间采取措施刺激美国经济。去年，美国的对华贸易逆差翻了一倍多，达2020亿美元，上述政策转变至少要负部分责任，虽然结果是无意中造成的。

美国目前的经常账户赤字达国内生产总值(GDP)的7%多(中国对其中四分之一负有责任)，这部分要归因于布什背离传统的财政政策。与此同时，部分因为北京不愿允许国内消费上升，中国的盈余达GDP的7%。

显然，这种规模的失衡是难以持久的。除非胡锦涛与布什能够顶住把对方当作替罪羊的国内压力，并就调整各自经济的需要达成一致，否则难以产生好的成果。尽管成功的可能性不大，中美还必须说服有大量盈余的东亚其它国家与人民币一起升值。

中美两国领导人周四会晤时，解决全球失衡的挑战将是最重要的议题。但两人应共同应对的问题很多，范围很广，布什不应让汇率争议挤走或淡化这些问题。

布什政府中，仍有许多人将中国的崛起看成对美国利益不折不扣的威胁。国家情报局长(director of national intelligence)约翰?内格罗蓬特(John D. Negroponte)最近将中国形容为“对等的竞争者”(peer competitor)。北京的国防开支迅速增长，鹰派人士将此视为证据，认为北京最终计划挑战美国的优势地位，这或许不无道理。然而，若不更有效地让中国参与，很难想像布什政府的任何紧迫外交政策挑战能得到圆满解决。其中首要的是伊朗和朝鲜的核武器计划。中国在这两件事上都不冷不热，既不直接反对美国的目标，也没有尽力协助美国的目标。在朝鲜问题上，中国害怕平壤拥有核武器，但也担心自己的“后院”不稳定。在伊朗问题上，中国的首要任务是保障能源供应，这与华盛顿要求中国支持对伊朗发出国际制裁威胁相抵触。中国的举动，也将影响到布什政府能否加强美国的能源安全。美国国会最近的一份研究报告称，如果中国的石油需求继续以目前速率增长，美国汽油价格在今后5年里将上涨15%。

这只是一小部分例子，说明美中加强合作对全世界至关重要。在这点上，美国副国务卿罗伯特?佐立克(Robert Zoellick)比他的某些同事更精明，他呼吁中国诉诸理智，在国际体系中成为“负责任的利益相关者”(responsible stakeholder)。布什应该记得，甜言蜜语比尖酸刻薄更管用。

人民币汇率将是中美首脑会谈重要话题
Yuan Will Hold Currency at Meeting

HONG KONG -- For years, China behaved as if it had a severe shortage of foreign exchange, instead of a pile that has now become the world's biggest. All that is about to change -- with potentially profound implications for the Chinese economy.

Last week, the central bank announced that starting May 1, individuals will be able to exchange yuan for as much as $20,000 each year, up from $8,000. Companies will be given more freedom to buy foreign currency. Banks will be able to collect yuan deposits from individuals and companies to invest in bonds overseas, while fund-management firms will be allowed to take foreign exchange from these customers to buy bonds and shares abroad.

Up to now, China has imposed tight restrictions on the use of foreign exchange. It is miserly with the amounts it allows Chinese students to take overseas, and even getting dollars to pay for a visa can be a hassle. Companies trying to get foreign currency to purchase imports often run into a tangle of bureaucracy. Authorities have banned individuals from using foreign exchange to invest in overseas stocks and bonds.

Beijing hasn't given a clear timetable for the relaxation of these policies, or details of the permitted size of overseas investment. Still, the implication is clear: the government wants to hold less foreign exchange, and it wants companies and individuals to hold more -- and spend it. One reason is that China's huge reserves, which hit $875.1 billion in March, draw unwelcome attention to its ballooning trade surplus, a source of growing friction with the U.S.

The size of the reserves is "sending trouble signals," says Calla Wiemer, a China expert who teaches economics at the National University of Singapore. At the same time, China wants "to make the foreign exchange market function more efficiently."

None of the announced moves are likely to substantially slow the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves, now growing by around $200 billion a year. That means authorities will remain under pressure to allow faster appreciation of the yuan to try to reduce the trade surplus and head off inflation.

However, some economists point out that in the longer run, creating demand for dollars for overseas investment could depress the yuan relative to the U.S. currency.

American politicians have been pressing for a sharp appreciation of the yuan to bring down China's trade surplus with the U.S., which hit a record $202 billion last year, according to U.S. figures. They say an artificially low yuan makes China's exports unfairly cheap.

The issue is expected to be high on the agenda during Chinese President Hu Jintao's meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush on Thursday in Washington, part of Mr. Hu's trip this week to the U.S.

China's announcement on overseas investment still falls short of what the U.S. wants -- a revaluation and, ultimately, free trading of the yuan against the dollar -- and President Bush's problem is that he can't easily compel China to do more. The threat the U.S. Congress has been brandishing -- passage of legislation imposing a huge across-the-board tariff on all Chinese imports if currency policies don't change -- is an empty one.

That is why the most important development ahead of this week's summit might have been the little-heralded introduction of a bill in Congress by Republican Sen. Charles Grassley and Democratic Sen. Max Baucus. Their bill would require the U.S. Treasury, if it determines that the yuan is "fundamentally misaligned," to vote against loans for China from the World Bank or Asian Development Bank, refuse to provide insurance through the Overseas Private Investment Corp. and block any effort to give China a larger voting share in the International Monetary Fund.

Such threats are less draconian than an across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports. But they also are a lot more realistic -- which is why the two senators may have given President Bush a little more of the leverage he will need.

The moves -- the most significant so far in Beijing's efforts to liberalize its tight currency controls -- will give ammunition to Mr. Hu to disarm critics in Washington. They could encourage more buying of U.S. goods by Chinese, whether by overseas students studying in the U.S., companies importing more U.S. products or investors snapping up U.S. stocks and bonds.

But the policy could also have long-term consequences on the Chinese economy. At present, Chinese listed companies don't have to fight very hard for investment: their stocks and bonds are among the few investment opportunities open to Chinese with money.

When these investors are able to pick and choose among companies listed in Hong Kong and elsewhere, Chinese firms will have to improve their management and returns.

More broadly, China will have to make it far more attractive for investors to keep their money in China by overhauling stock markets that have been plagued with corruption and poor disclosure, and by developing bond markets.

The incentive for Chinese to take their money offshore is obvious. Where China's one-year bank deposit rate has been unchanged for years at 2.25%, Chinese investors could get yields of more than twice that rate by buying U.S. or European government bonds.

Still, Chinese brokers aren't counting on a flood of investment overseas anytime soon. "We don't expect many clients," says Zheng Tuo, a fund manager at Fortis Haitong Investment Management Co. in Shanghai. "It will take about two or three years before the market matures."

Chinese bankers foresee a lucrative new business area, but not immediately. Mi Liang, a Shanghai-based investment consultant with the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, says individual investors are unfamiliar with overseas bond markets. "Even Chinese banks themselves aren't good at analyzing these highly profitable but more risky overseas investment products," he says.
人民币汇率将是中美首脑会谈重要话题



多年来，中国的相关政策让人觉得它似乎是一个极度缺乏外汇的国家，而事实上，如今它已成为全球外汇储备最多的国家。现在，这一切终于要有所改变了，而且，新政策还将对中国经济产生潜在的深远影响。

中国央行上周宣布，从五月一日起，境内居民个人购汇年度总额由原先的每人每年等值8,000美元增加至2万美元；境内机构经常项目外汇帐户保留外汇的限额也有所提高。银行可以将居民和企业的外汇存款用于投资海外债券，同时，允许资产管理公司集合这些客户的外汇用于购买海外债券和股票。

更多信息


? 中国外汇新政不大可能推高人民币汇率

? 中国放宽对境内机构和居民个人的购汇限制

? 中国给期待人民币实现政策突破者再泼冷水

? 人民币升值未必有助于贸易此前，中国对外汇的使用一直实行严格的控制。到海外留学的学生也只允许携带很少的外汇，甚至要搞到申请签证用的少量外汇也不是件容易的事。需要用外汇进口设备或原材料的企业常常为此陷入各种繁文缛节。居民个人一直被禁止购买海外股票和债券。

北京还没有宣布允许进行海外投资的时间表以及具体的投资额度。不过，中国的意图很明显，那就是减少所持有的外汇，让更多外汇留在企业和个人手中或者消费掉。导致这种想法的原因之一是中国巨大的外汇储备。截至3月份，中国的外汇储备达到8,751亿美元，这一庞大的数字使贸易顺差不断膨胀，并招致其他国家的不满，成为导致中、美摩擦日益加剧的一个诱因。

在新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)教授经济学课程的中国问题专家卡拉?威尔默(Calla Wiemer)说，中国外汇储备的规模“发出了麻烦的信号”。同时，中国希望“外汇市场能提高运作效率”。

目前，中国的外汇储备在以每年2,000亿美元的速度增加，而中国宣布的上述举措不可能显著放慢外汇储备积聚的速度。这意味著，中国仍将承受加快人民币升值的压力，以减少贸易顺差、抑制通货膨胀。

不过，经济学家指出，就长期而言，允许海外投资所引发的美元需求有可能抑制人民币兑美元汇率上升。

美国政界人士一直在向中国施压，要求其大幅上调人民币汇率以降低美中贸易逆差。据美国方面的数字，美中贸易逆差去年达到了创纪录的2,020亿美元。他们认为，中国人为压低人民币汇率使中国出口商品享受了不公正的价格优势。

在中国国家主席胡锦涛与布什总统本周四在华盛顿会晤时，这个问题将成为会谈的一个重要议题。

中国宣布的有关海外投资的新政策并没有解决美国想要的东西，那就是让人民币升值并最终允许人民币兑美元自由兑换，而布什的问题是他不能轻易勉强中国作出更多表示。美国国会一直宣称，如果中国不改变外汇政策，将通过立法让美国对中国所有输美商品征收高额关税以示惩罚－－但美国在这方面并没有付诸行动。

在胡锦涛本周访美前，这方面最重要的一个进展或许应该是两位国会议员──共和党参议员查尔斯?格拉斯利(Charles Grassley)和民主党参议员马克斯?鲍科斯(Max Baucus)提出的一个议案。议案要求，如果认定中国的人民币汇率“根本性失真”，那么美国财政部在世界银行(World Bank)或亚洲发展银行(Asian Development Bank)就向中国提供贷款问题进行投票表决时必须投下反对票，同时拒绝通过海外私人投资公司(Overseas Private Investment Corporation)提供保险，并阻止中国在国际货币基金组织(IMF)获得更大的表决权。

这一议案不像对进口中国商品全面征收关税的做法那么苛刻，但它更现实，因此可以说，这两位议员或许给布什提供了他可能需要的运作空间。

中国这次宣布的新政策是中国在放松外汇管制方面最重大的举措。它使胡锦涛有了消解华盛顿批评家火气的武器。这些措施可能会刺激中国人──如海外留学生、进口企业、投资美国股市和债市的人──购买更多美国商品。

新政策还将对中国经济产生长期影响。目前，中国上市公司在证券市场上融资不会遇到很大困难，因为中国人可选择的投资机会非常有限。

一旦投资者可以投资在香港和其他地区上市的股票，那么大陆上市公司将不得不改善公司治理和股东的投资回报以留住投资者。

从更广泛的意义上来说，为将投资者的钱留在国内，中国将不得不通过改革股票市场、发展债券市场来增加对投资者的吸引力。目前的中国股市深受腐败和信息披露不规范的困扰。

中国人对把钱投到海外的兴趣显而易见。中国的一年期储蓄存款利率多年来一直保持在2.25%不变，而如果购买美国或欧洲国家国债，其收益率比这个水平高一倍以上。

不过，中国的证券经纪公司并不认为很快会出现海外投资大潮。上海海富通基金管理公司(Fortis Haitong Investment Management Co.)基金经理郑拓说，我们估计不会有很多客户。这块业务要经过两到三年时间才会逐渐成熟。

银行界人士也认为这项业务盈利前景很好，但不会很快实现。中国工商银行在上海的投资顾问糜良说，个人投资者对海外债市不熟悉；中资银行本身也不擅长分析这些高收益但风险也较大的海外投资产品。

美欲引导中国担当起世界舞台新角色
President Hu's Historic Visit

Chinese President Hu Jintao's first trip to the U.S. this week and his summit Thursday with President Bush are the stuff of history, but you won't discern that from the statements and deals that diplomats dub "the deliverables."

Watch instead what the sum of the parts says about what sort of China is emerging to mark the end of a relatively short period of unrivaled U.S. global dominance from the Cold War's end to, well, about now. The danger: China is gaining global influence faster than a sense of responsibility about how to deal with it.

THINKING GLOBAL



Is China more of an opportunity or threat to the U.S.? Is Beijing becoming more of a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system?
Write to Frederick Kempe at Thinkingglobal@wsj.com with your thoughts.
EMAIL ALERTS


Sign up to receive alerts when new installments of Thinking Global are published. Frederick Kempe also writes a daily analysis of the biggest news of the day. You may sign up to receive Mr. Kempe's full daily commentary by email, along with links to all of the stories and features that are mentioned in each day's Asian or European edition of the print Journal.With that in mind, U.S. officials choreographing the trip have pursued a dual purpose ahead of this week's meetings. They have pushed China, which at current growth rates will surpass the U.S. economy as the world's largest in about 2030, to more quickly help enforce global rules on everything from protecting intellectual property to stopping Iran's nuclear proliferation. Second, they want Mr. Hu this week to address growing American anxiety about China amid record trade deficits.

"Part of the challenge of the new summitry is to establish a Chinese dialogue with the American people," says Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who has led a series of discussions with Chinese officials in past months aimed at coaching Beijing on its new global role. "Our primary focus in preparing for this summit has been to try to get the Chinese to recognize that in both words and deeds they need to demonstrate to the American public that they see [economic relations] as more of a two-way street."

It's in that context that Beijing has gone on a $16 billion pre-summit shopping spree for goods from soybeans to software, often through long-term contracts. Beijing has required all Chinese computer makers to pre-load operating software, thus reducing rampant piracy. A move last week to relax capital controls on Chinese individuals and companies is another piece of the puzzle.

Now watch this week to see if Mr. Hu delivers the statements U.S. officials have sought on the hottest economic issues: China's undervalued currency and runaway counterfeiting and piracy of intellectual property.

A Touch Triumphant

President Hu will use his first trip to the U.S. as part barnstorming to sell Americans on China's good intentions and part victory lap to mark his country's emergence as a global power.


He'll start in Seattle today with a visit to Boeing and dinner with Bill Gates, move on to Washington and end with a Yale valedictory. His subtext throughout: China's rise is more opportunity than threat.

He knows continued single-party Communist rule at a time of growing social tensions relies on two sources of legitimacy at home: economic growth and nationalism. He'll offer economic carrots to tame U.S. protectionists while safeguarding Chinese growth. He'll also press Mr. Bush to publicly oppose Taiwan's independence leanings.

The measure of the trip's success, however, will be the extent to which Mr. Hu shows China has embraced the concepts necessary, as Mr. Zoellick defined it in a speech last September, to transform itself into a "responsible stakeholder" in the global system that has enabled its success. While the administration debates whether China is friend or foe, this approach aims to so deeply co-opt Beijing that even as a rival it would be a limited threat.

"For seven administrations over some 30 years we set as a goal to integrate China into the international system," says Mr. Zoellick. "Guess what? We've succeeded. If you look at capital markets, commodity prices, currency issues, counterfeiting problems, you can't discuss these subjects without involving China. So we reset the strategic focus. The goal can't be just integrating China, we have to integrate to what purpose?"

Mixed Record

For those keeping score on whether the stakeholder ideas are sinking in, there's evidence on both sides.

'RESPONSIBLE STAKEHOLDER'


? Transcript of Zoellick speech

? Untranslatable Word Leaves Beijing Baffled
12/07/05

Chinese leaders, after a nudge from Washington, ensured that the newly elected Hamas prime minister wasn't invited to Beijing. China coughed up a significant contribution for Afghan rebuilding earlier this year. China has said it will welcome the head of the new Iraqi government once it has formed.

China still balks at allowing markets to set its currency price, estimated at 20%-40% below market values. It has been slow as well to effectively crack down on piracy and counterfeiting. Movement has been in the right direction but may be slower than U.S. legislators seeking sanctions may tolerate.

On the dark side of the balance sheet, Beijing continues to hold political prisoners, censor the press, resist democratic political change and befriend despots. China strikes energy deals in Africa and Central Asia that seem more aimed at locking up assets than bringing resources to an open market. Beijing would likely oppose economic sanctions against Iran if it comes to that.

U.S. officials say Mr. Bush will press Beijing again on religious freedom and political prisoner cases. But domestic constituencies on both sides dictate that the two leaders will spend most of their time tending to economic tensions that could poison all aspects of the relationship.

For all the importance of their meeting, Mr. Bush will be the first post-war president not to hold a state dinner for a Chinese leader's visit, choosing a lower profile lunch. Their scheduled time together is only 90 minutes and they won't hold a common press conference or make common statements.

Yet don't get too lost in such details this week. Most important is the glimpse President Hu provides into the world's future.

? Is China more of an opportunity or threat to the U.S.? Is Beijing becoming more of a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system?
美欲引导中国担当起世界舞台新角色



中国国家主席胡锦涛上任后的首次美国之行及其与美国总统布什定于周四举行的会晤是具有历史意义的事件，但是从那些被外交家们称为“可期成果”的声明和协议里你是体会不到这一点的。

所以，我们还是来关注一下综合各类言论得出的一个关于中国的总体印象吧──美国自冷战结束以来相对短暂时期内所独享的全球霸主地位将因这个国家的迅速崛起而宣告结束。眼下的危险是，伴随其全球影响力的急速扩大，中国还没有相应及时地意识到自己在运用这种影响力时所应担负的责任。

意识到这一点的美国官员在设计这次首脑会晤时一直希望能达到两个目的。他们一方面敦促经济快速增长的中国－－若按目前速度增长，到2030年其经济总量就会取代美国世界第一的地位－－更加积极地在从知识产权保护到阻止伊朗核计划等所有国际事务上协助国际规则的执行，另一方面，他们希望胡锦涛此次访问能缓解美国人对不断加剧的美中贸易逆差的担忧。

美国副国务卿佐立克(Robert Zoellick)说，这次首脑会晤面临的挑战之一是让中国与美国建立起对话机制。佐立克本人过去几个月里曾数次率队与中国官员进行一系列对话，以期引导北京担当起在全球格局中所应有的新角色。“我们在准备此次首脑会谈时的主要重点是努力让中国人认识到，他们需要在言语和行动两个方面向美国公众表明，他们将两国经济关系更多地视为一种互惠互利的关系。”

正是在这一背景下，北京在胡锦涛访美前发起了一轮采购狂潮，他们签下了总额160亿美元的大单，且多为长期合约，所购商品从大豆到软件不一而足。北京还要求中国电脑制造商在电脑里预装正版软件，以此削减猖獗的盗版现象。上周，中国还宣布放松对境内居民及企业的外汇管制。这也是其一系列实际行动中的一个组成部分。

现在，本周要关注的是胡锦涛是否会如美国官员所期，在诸如汇率、盗版、知识产权等热点经济问题上发表什么言论。

胡主席将利用这次访问作为他向美国人表明中国良好意愿的机会，同时，这也将成为他向世人展示日益崛起的中国大国形像的机遇。

他将于今天以西雅图为起点，先参观波音公司(Boeing)，随后与比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)餐叙，再到华盛顿，最后从耶鲁大学(Yale)挥别。他贯穿全程的潜台词是：中国的崛起带给其他国家的更多的是机遇而非威胁。

他知道，在当前中国国内社会动荡日益加剧的情况下，共产党要维持其政权取决于国内的两大资源──经济增长和民族凝聚力。他要在维持国内增长的同时，在经济上拿出点甜头来安抚美国的保护主义者。他还要向布什施压，要求美国公开反对台湾岛内的台独倾向。

不过此次美国之行的成功与否在很大程度上取决于中国对一些观念──如佐立克在去年9月的讲话中所述──的认同程度，只有接受了这些观点，中国才能成为国际体系中“负责任的利益相关者”，而正是融入到国际体系中才促成了中国的成功。虽然布什政府对中国是敌是友仍在争论不休，但此举旨在将中国政府深植于国际体系中，这样一来，即便作为竞争者，中国的威胁也会小得多。

佐立克说，“我们过去30年的七届政府都努力将中国纳入国际体系。结果怎么样？我们成功了。看看资本市场、商品价格、汇率和商品仿冒问题，如果没有中国的参与，这些问题根本无法讨论。因此我们重新设定了战略重心。目标不仅仅是将中国纳入国际体系，还需明确这样做的目标是什么。”

对利益相关者的概念仍持保留态度的人可以看看两方面的例子。

在美国政府的敦促下，中国保证不会邀请巴勒斯坦新当选的总理、哈马斯领袖访问北京；中国迫于压力在今年年初为重建阿富汗作出了重要贡献；中国还表示将欢迎伊拉克新政府的领导人访华。

中国在实现人民币自由兑换问题上仍裹足不前，据估计目前的人民币汇率比市场价值低估了20%至40%。另外，中国在打击盗版和假冒商品问题上也不够积极。虽然中国已经采取了一些正确的措施，不过在寻求制裁中国的美国参议员看来，这个速度仍过于缓慢了。

看看中国的另一面：北京方面还在实行媒体审查制度、拒绝进行政治改革。中国与非洲、中亚签订能源协议的目的似乎更像是锁定资产而不是建立开放的市场。另外，如果事态进一步发展，那么中国政府可能会反对对伊朗实施经济制裁。

美国官员表示，布什将在宗教自由等问题上再次向北京施压。不过共和党和民主党的选民却要求领导人更多关注可能损害中美关系的经济紧张局势。

此外，布什将成为战后第一个不设国宴招待中国领导人的美国总统，他选择的是规格较低的午宴。两国元首按计划只有90分钟的会面时间，而且不会召开共同的新闻发布会或发表共同声明。

不过对这些细节不要过于深究。最重要的问题是胡锦涛如何看待世界的未来。