禽流感威胁全球经济前景

Weighing pandemic's impact

PARIS -- If avian flu sparks a global flu pandemic, the world will have a lot more to care about than financial markets. But that hasn't stopped economists and strategists ruminating over the possible impact on everything from economic growth to interest rates to stock prices and foreign exchange.

Concerns about a possible pandemic have risen with the emergence of the H5N1 bird-flu virus, which has jumped from birds to humans, killing 67 people in Asia in the past two years. Some scientists fear that if the virus mutates to the point where it can be transmitted between humans, the world could face a pandemic.

"While it is difficult to quantify the precise likelihood of a human H5N1 pandemic, analysis suggests that avian flu is a rising risk to the global economic outlook," says Robert Bonte-Friedheim, an equity analyst at Citigroup specializing in medical affairs and lead author of a recent report on avian flu.

The prospect of that is still viewed as extremely low. But the World Health Organization estimates that a relatively mild global flu outbreak could cost two million to seven million lives. But others contend that a truly virulent virus could rival the 1918-1919 "Spanish flu" in which anywhere from 20 million to 100 million people died.

"The bottom line is that flu pandemics have already developed in the past and may well show up again in the future, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy and markets," says Lorenzo Codogno, co-head of European economics at Bank of America.

A relatively mild -- and containable -- outbreak of bird flu would likely slow economic activity, cause stocks to fall, bonds to rally and trigger sharp jumps in so-called haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and possibly the U.S. dollar and sterling. But these effects should prove temporary, contend Citigroup analysts. In fact, they regard the equity selloff as an opportunity to buy stocks that would be expected to rebound with economic growth.

A full-blown pandemic is another story. Even people who regard predictions of a repeat of 1918-1919 as alarmist acknowledge the ruinous impact of such an event. "A virulent, global outbreak of avian flu, which is still considered to be a low-probability event, would cause global economic activity to decline, raw-material prices to collapse, risk aversion to rise, monetary policy to ease and interest rates to fall," says Ben Walker, a fund manager at Gartmore Investment Management.

Economies would be buffeted by curtailed individual travel, increased absenteeism from the workplace, reduced shopping, a steep drop in consumer and business confidence and government-imposed quarantines.

Meanwhile, the combination of increased investor aversion to risk and slowing global growth would damp cross-border investment. That, in turn, should be bad news for the currencies of countries with large current-account deficits that rely on financing from abroad, such as the U.S., Australian and New Zealand dollars, the U.K. pound, South African rand and Mexican peso, says Marvin Barth, a Citigroup currency economist.

Slowing growth, especially in Asia, would also put a big dent in the demand for raw materials, particularly jet fuel. "Severe constraints on global mobility will have a huge impact on oil demand," say Citigroup analysts. "However, some commodities, such as gold and silver, could benefit from a 'flight-to-quality' trade," says Gartmore's Mr. Walker.

To get a notion of what might happen in various markets, investment strategists often use the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003 as a template. East Asian growth shrank. Deflation set in as consumer prices fell in Hong Kong, China and Singapore.

In Hong Kong, tourist arrivals plunged, hotel-occupancy collapsed and the stock market tumbled 10% in six weeks. Consumer discretionary, industrial, bank, materials and real-estate stocks in Asian markets excluding Japan fell 7% to 17%; utilities and health-care stocks rose slightly. Post-SARS, the sectors that fell the most came roaring back. Even so, SARS may be too-optimistic a benchmark. It was short-lived and mostly restricted to four Asian countries.

"In SARS, the market didn't start coming back until the caseload of new patients was on a sustained downward trend," says Citigroup's Mr. Bonte-Friedheim. "With a potential H5N1 influenza, it would probably be a long time before that point is reached."

Under a pandemic scenario, the stock sectors that should perform well include companies that make antiviral drugs and vaccines, hospital chains, cleaning-product manufacturers, home-entertainment providers, telecommunications and Internet-related companies and utilities, according to Citigroup and Gartmore's Mr. Walker.

Meanwhile, Standard & Poor's notes that "businesses that depend on large numbers of people congregating -- such as airlines, lodging, leisure and restaurants -- would suffer serious setbacks." Other "losers" include shopping-mall operators, luxury-goods companies, oil companies and mining and metals concerns.

For all the prognosticating though, some contend that such an event would be so serious that there is little that investors can do. "I don't think you can do anything about it," warns Crispin Odey, head of Odey Asset Management in London. "It's uninsurable."
禽流感威胁全球经济前景

如果禽流感在全球范围内爆发，有很多比金融市场更重要的事情要考虑。但这并未阻止经济学家和策略师们思考禽流感可能给经济增长、利率、股价和汇市等方面带来的影响。

随著 H5N1 高致病性禽流感病毒的出现，对禽流感疫情的担忧日益加剧。 H5N1 病毒已经由禽类传播到人身上，过去两年来已经造成 67 人死亡。一些科学家担心，如果 H5N1 发生变异，出现人与人之间的传播，那么全球将面临一场禽流感疫情。

花旗集团 (Citigroup) 从事医疗事件研究的股票分析师弗里德海姆 (Robert Bonte-Friedheim) 说，虽然很难量化 H5N1 病毒在人群中流行的准确概率，但有关分析显示禽流感对全球经济前景的威胁越来越大。弗里德海姆也是最近一份禽流感报告的主要作者。

禽流感大爆发的可能性仍被认为是极低的。但世界卫生组织 (World Health Organization) 预测，一场相对温和的全球性禽流感疫情就可能导致 200 万至 700 万人死亡。但其他人则认为，一种真正极具传染性的病毒其危害可能与 1918-1919 年间导致 2,000 万至 1 亿人丧生的“西班牙流感”相当。

“底线是流感疫情曾在过去出现过，将来很有可能再次出现，给全球经济和市场带来毁灭性的打击，”美国银行 (Bank of America) 欧洲经济学部门联席主管科多尼奥 (Lorenzo Codogno) 说。

一场相对温和－－而且可控－－的禽流感疫情有可能导致经济活动放慢，股价下挫，债券上涨，并引发所谓的避险货币如瑞士法郎、美元和英镑大幅升值。但花旗集团的分析师认为，这些影响应是暂时的。实际上，他们认为，届时股票遭到抛售正是买进那些预计将随著经济增长反弹的股票的大好时机。

而一旦禽流感全面爆发，则是另外一回事了。有人认为，担心 1918-1919 年的历史重演完全是杞人忧天，但即便是这些人也承认，禽流感的全面爆发将带来毁灭性的影响。“禽流感在全球范围内肆虐将导致全球经济活动下降，原材料价格崩溃，避险情绪增强，货币政策放宽，利率下跌，” Gartmore Investment Management 的基金经理沃克 (Ben Walker) 称。

为了对各大市场可能出现的情况有个认识，投资策略师们经常以 2003 年爆发的非典型肺炎 (severe acute respiratory syndrome, 简称 SARS) 作为参考。当时，东亚经济出现了滑坡。随著香港、中国大陆和新加坡的消费者价格指数下降，出现了通货紧缩。

即便如此，以 SARS 作为参考可能仍过于乐观了， SARS 的影响相当短暂，而且基本上只限于四个亚洲国家。

花旗集团和 Gartmore 的沃克表示，一旦禽流感疫情全面爆发，股票应有不错表现的公司包括制造抗病毒药物和疫苗的公司、医院、清洁产品制造商、家庭娱乐提供商、电信和互联网相关公司以及公用事业公司。

尽管有种种预言，但部分人士表示，禽流感一旦大爆发，后果会非常严重，投资者将束手无策。“我认为你什么也做不了，” Odey Asset Management 驻伦敦的负责人奥迪 (Crispin Odey) 警告称，“这是没法上保险的。”

禽流感疫情不可夸大

Needless panic over avian flu will lead to cynicism

No one can argue against the need to be forewarned about a possible disaster but, in this case, the scale of the warnings appears to have outstripped the magnitude of the threat.

People forget the postwar world has already survived two influenza pandemics: the 1957 "Asian flu" and "Hong Kong flu" in 1968. Both were caused by the same phenomenon scientists fear will happen now: a new influenza virus created by avian and human influenza viruses swapping genes. The 1957 pandemic is estimated to have caused 2m deaths worldwide, while the 1968 pandemic caused about 1m deaths. To put these figures in perspective, normal seasonal influenza is thought by the WHO to cause 250,000-500,000 deaths.

There was, of course, a far more serious influenza outbreak in 1918, when a new virus spread through a world already ravaged by war and caused 40m-100m deaths. Warnings from public health officials and politicians have served to create the impression that the death toll from a new pandemic will be along the lines of that of 1918.

But no scientific evidence has been offered for this belief. The world in 1918 was particularly ill prepared to tackle a disease outbreak of any kind, let alone of a new influenza virus. Social and medical infrastructure had been stretched to the limit already by the demands of war. The influenza virus itself had not been discovered and antibiotics, essential to prevent secondary illnesses in influenza patients, were still decades away from development.

Today, we have antiviral agents that should at least help blunt the initial impact of a pandemic. It is another matter that these drugs are priced beyond the reach of poorer countries and that production falls far short of potential demand. But this is an issue of global governance that can be tackled, not a reason for panic. Unlike in 1918, the technology exists to produce vaccines, which offer the only sure protection against a new influenza strain.

Public anxiety about influenza is a result of communication policies adopted by scientists and public health authorities. The process started in 1997, when influenza watchers became alarmed after 18 people in Hong Kong caught a virulent form of influenza caused by H5N1, an avian influenza virus. This was the first time that this bird virus had infected humans and scientists worried that it would in time become more adapted to humans and spark a pandemic.

As organisations such as the WHO prepared to tackle this threat, they felt the need to sensitise both the public and politicians. Influenza is an everyday illness and it was difficult to get people sufficiently concerned about a more virulent form. Reminding people of 1918 was a good way to capture attention. But the campaign to sensitise the world is now at risk of becoming a victim of its own success.

Every instance of birds being infected with H5N1 is seen as a sign that the world has marched one step closer to disaster. What has not been stated enough is that H5N1 is still very much an avian virus. Though it has a limited capacity to infect humans, it has not acquired the genetic characteristics that would allow it to transmit easily from human to human, an essential precondition for a human pandemic. A study published this month by scientists in a global network organised by the WHO pointed out that there was no evidence that the H5N1 virus had acquired human or any other non-avian influenza genes in the eight years since it had begun infecting humans.

There is a significant risk that, as H5N1 spreads to bird and fowl populations across the world, it will get increasing opportunities to mix with human and mammalian influenza viruses and eventually evolve into an efficient human flu virus. But in the process, it could become less virulent.

The world has time to prepare for a possible pandemic and ensure there are adequate drugs and vaccines widely available. But constant warnings that a pandemic on the 1918 scale is imminent bring the danger of creating first unnecessary fear and then, when the pandemic does not materialise as expected, cynicism and apathy.

The writer is director, public health media programme, at the University of Hong Kong's journalism and media studies centre and author of Twenty-First Century Plague: The Story of Sars

禽流感疫情不可夸大

世界即将遭遇一场流感大流行，全球数千万人将因此丧生，世界经济也可能被破坏，这一观点正在成为常理。无论是美国总统，还是世界卫生组织(WHO)都明确表示，这场“生物海啸”不会放过任何人，世界各国都必须作好准备。

没人能否认为可能的灾难未雨绸缪的必要性，但这一次，警告的规模似乎超出了威胁的大小。

人们忘记了，战后世界已挺过了两次流感大流行：1957年的“亚洲型流感”和1968年的“香港型流感”。造成两次流感的现象，与科学家们担心现在会发生的现象相同：禽类与人类流感病毒交换基因，创造出新的流感病毒。据估计，1957年的流感大流行，导致全球200万人死亡，而1968年的流感大流行，导致约100万人死亡。要正确地看待这些数字，世卫组织认为，正常的季节性流感也会导致25万至50万人死亡。

当然，1918年爆发的流感更为严重。当时的世界饱受战争蹂躏，新的病毒却又四处横行，导致了4000万至1亿人丧生。公共卫生官员和政客的警告让人们感到，新的流感大流行造成的死亡人数，会与1918年流感爆发旗鼓相当。

但没有科学证据能证明这一观点。

1918年的世界毫无准备，无法应付任何种类疾病的爆发，更不用说新的流感病毒了。战争的需要，已使社会和医疗基础设施的负荷达到极限。流感病毒当时还未被发现，对防止流感病人出现继发性疾病很有用的抗生素，也是几十年后才开发出来。

今天，我们有了抗病毒剂，这至少应该有助于减弱疫情最初的影响。另一个问题是，一些较穷的国家无法承受这些药物的价格，而药物产量远无法满足潜在需求。但这是个可以解决的全球治理问题，并非恐慌的理由。与1918年不同的是，我们有生产疫苗的技术，这是对抗新的流感株唯一可靠的保障。

科学家和公共卫生当局所采用的沟通政策，造成了

公众对流感的焦虑。这一过程始于1997年，当时香港有18个人感染了由禽流感病毒H5N1引起的致命流感，流感观察人士因此变得恐慌。这是人类第一次感染禽类病毒，科学家担心，这种病毒会很快变得更加适应人类，并引发疫情。

当世卫组织等机构准备应付这一威胁时，它们觉得有必要提醒公众和政客。流感是普通疾病，即使是更致命的流感也难以让人们感到忧心忡忡。让人们回忆起1918年的流感爆发，是引起人们关注的好办法。但这一提醒世人的举动，现在却有可能成为自身成功的牺牲品。

每检出一例禽类被H5N1病毒感染，都被视为世界向灾难又靠近一步的征兆。而没有得到充分说明的是，H5N1在很大程度上仍是一种禽类病毒。尽管该病毒感染人类的能力有限，但它尚未获得能在人际间轻易传播的基因特征，而这是造成人类疫情的必要前提。本月，由世卫组织建立的全球网络内的科学家发表了一项研究，研究指出，没有证据显示，H5N1病毒自8年前开始感染人类以来，已获得了人类或其它任何非禽流感的基因。

一个重大威胁在于，随着H5N1传播给世界各地的鸟类和家禽，它会有越来越多的机会，同人类和哺乳动物流感病毒融合，并最终演化成高效的人类流感病毒。但在这一过程中，它的致命性可能减弱。

全世界有时间为可能的疫情做好准备，并确保有足够的药物和疫苗可广泛供应。但如果频频警告一场1918年规模的疫情即将来临，则会带来危险，首先会造成不必要的恐慌，其次，如果疫情没有如期发生，则会遭到人们漠视和冷嘲热讽。

作者是香港大学新闻及传媒研究中心公共卫生媒体项目主任，并著有《二十一世纪疫症：非典型肺炎的故事》(Twenty-First Century Plague: The Story of Sars)一书。