Resilient Economy
The first five years of the 21st century, a time of amazing technological advance and opportunity, have been beset by calamities. The latest is a storm and flood that forced the evacuation of New Orleans, the 35th-largest city in the U.S. Even before Katrina had formed, energy prices had surged to levels not seen since the '70s or early '80s, nearly 60% of Americans thought the U.S. was heading in the wrong direction, and forecasts of economic collapse were ubiquitous.
If this were a novel, it would be a modern-day version of "The Grapes of Wrath." But this view has no basis in fact. In 1939, when John Steinbeck published his novel, the unemployment rate was 17.2%; in August this year it was just 4.9%. To put this in perspective, the unemployment rate has only been lower in 47 months out of the past 32 years. Those months were all in the late '90s, a time most people view as a bubble.
In the past two years, real GDP has expanded at an annualized rate of 4.1%, while business investment has grown at 11.8%. Despite fears of low-cost manufacturing in China, U.S.-based factories have never produced more, according to the Federal Reserve. Rapidly rising productivity -- up 5.4% at an annual rate in the past two years -- has allowed factories to absorb rising energy prices and still remain competitive.
The U.S. economy has weathered storms of man and nature in this young century, and continues to perform well. But many still fear the worst. The Gulf Coast is the epicenter of U.S. energy production, and the storm destroyed a region responsible for roughly 1% of total U.S. economic activity. In addition, there is a political storm brewing, which could bring a new age of government activism.
Despite the human suffering, our $12.5 trillion economy can absorb the damage of Katrina with no long-term, and very little short-term, damage. Early estimates of the time and cost of recovery are often overstated significantly. In 1991, as Iraqi soldiers fled Kuwait, they set fire to more than 600 oil wells. Estimates that it would take five or six years to put these fires out, and predictions of a world-wide environmental catastrophe, turned out to be excessively pessimistic. Red Adair, the famous oil-fire fighter, and other private companies, put them out in just nine months.
While government agencies, major nonprofits and politicians get most of the praise (or blame), the unsung heroes of recovery and renewal are private sector companies, working around the clock to bring energy, phones, retail outlets, and important services back on line. Instead of ticker tape parades, however, they often receive a skeptical response that focuses on profit as an evil. This is unfortunate.
The U.S. recovers from disasters rapidly because of its free-market system. Rising prices signal the need for more production and less consumption, and regional price differentials lead to a more efficient allocation of scarce capital. The real threat to this proven mechanism is government interference. In the '70s, price caps on energy reduced production, resulting in shortages and gas lines. With most pipelines and oil rigs, and roughly three-quarters of refinery capacity back in operation, oil prices are back down to pre-Katrina levels. Gasoline prices are not. Those sticky prices are a reflection of the concentration of refineries in a hurricane zone, and tight capacity constraints due to environmental concerns.
The good news is that the economy has absorbed higher energy prices without significant damage. The reason for this is simple. Real GDP has doubled since 1979, while petroleum consumption has risen just 12%. Spending on energy by consumers in the second quarter was 4.7% of income, a significant decline from the 6% to 7% rate of the late '70s and early '80s. With incomes rising faster than energy costs, consumer spending has not suffered to the extent predicted by pessimistic forecasts.
And this is good news for Katrina recovery. With the economy strong, and the unemployment rate low, displaced workers are already finding new jobs. In addition, many companies have announced that they will continue to pay displaced workers for the foreseeable future. As a result, estimates of a loss of 500,000 jobs in September are likely overstated.
Retail sales will also hold up better than expected. Gasoline sales surged due to fears of shortages, while massive donations of goods pushed up sales for retailers that are hundreds or thousands of miles away from the Gulf. These extra purchases will help offset losses in the affected areas.
A major question for the economy is whether the Fed will continue to lift interest rates. But it seems clear that any problems created by Katrina cannot be fixed by monetary liquidity. As we have learned so many times in history -- the hyperinflation of post-World War II Germany, or the stagflation of the '70s -- excess monetary accommodation exacerbates problems.
Between 1995 and 1999, with inflation near current levels, the federal funds rate averaged 5.4%, yet the economy and stock market boomed. As a result, it is hard to view the current 3.5% federal funds rate as restrictive.
It is highly likely that 30 years ago, when productivity was stagnant, the events of the past few years would have led to a recession. Instead, the economy continues to expand rapidly and corporate profits have soared. Nonetheless, equity values have not kept pace and price-earnings ratios have declined. When compared to Treasury bond yields, the stock market has clearly priced in a very high risk premium.
Because of this, it is not surprising to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock indices up 3% from lows on the day Katrina hit. With risk premiums already high, and recovery efforts accelerating, equity prices should continue to move higher in the weeks ahead.
An overreaction by government is the biggest danger to our economy right now. While increased spending is a given, that spending is often inefficient and never reversible. In addition, increased spending could undermine future tax cuts and inhibit economic growth. So why not encourage entrepreneurial activity and create tax-free enterprise zones in storm-ravaged areas? Cutting gas taxes, even temporarily, will also help offset rising prices. More nuclear power, more refineries, and less concentration of energy production would also reduce the impact of future storms in the Gulf.
The stagflation of the '70s shows clearly that government interference does much more damage to an economy than any storm or terrorist attack could. While the events of this century are nearly biblical in proportion, the economy will continue to absorb the costs as long at it remains free.
Mr. Wesbury is Chief Investment Strategist with Claymore Advisors, LLC.
弹性十足的自由经济体系
二十一世纪的前五年是科技飞速进步、机会大量涌现的五年，却也是灾难频传的五年。最近这场灾难就是迫使新奥尔良全境疏散的风暴和洪水。在卡特里娜飓风到来之前，能源价格就已经涨至上世纪七十年代或八十年代初以来前所未有的高度，近60%的美国人都认为美国已经误入歧途，经济崩溃的迹象已经无所不在。
如果这是一部小说的话，那会是现代版的《愤怒的葡萄》(The Grapes of Wrath)。然而这种观点缺乏事实基础。斯坦贝克(John Steinbeck)这部小说1939年出版时，美国的失业率高达17.2%；而今年8月份美国失业率只有4.9%。再换一个角度来看，整整32年来，美国失业率下降的月份只有47个月。而这47个月全都集中在九十年代末期，一个被大多数人看作是泡沫的年代。
两年来，美国的实际国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率增长了4.1%，商业投资增长了11.8%。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：Fed)认为，虽然人们都担心中国低成本生产带来的威胁，美国工厂的产出仍达到了历史最高水平。美国人的生产率迅速增长－－最近这两年的年增长率达到5.4%－－不但帮助各生产商消化了能源价格上涨的压力，还帮助他们维持了相当的竞争力。
在新世纪刚刚开始的这几年，美国经济顶住了人与自然的多次冲击，并将继续作出不俗的表现。但是，仍有许多人担心出现最坏的局面。卡特里娜飓风肆虐的墨西哥湾沿岸各州是美国能源生产的中心地带，受灾地区经济活动总量占全美的大约1%。此外，这也是一场政治风暴，有望就此翻开政府行为的新一页。
虽然美国人遭受了巨大的苦难，但美国12.5万亿美元之巨的经济规模还是能够消化卡特里娜带来的巨大损失，短期经济影响甚微，长期更是不会有任何影响。早先对重建所需时间和资金的估计也常常被显著夸大。1991年，伊拉克入侵科威特时，士兵们点燃了600多口油井。当时人们估计，扑灭这些大火就需要五到六年时间，并预计将发生全球范围的环境灾害，最终这些预期都被证明是过于悲观了。在著名的油田灭火机构Red Adair和其他私营企业的努力下，这些大火只用了短短九个月就被扑灭了。
虽然政府机构、大型非营利机构以及政治团体往往在灾难重建过程中最受瞩目，但默默无闻的英雄却是那些私营企业。它们夜以继日地忙著恢复能源、电话、零售网络以及重要的公共服务设施。但是，他们的努力和付出得到的非但不是盛情欢迎，却因为重视利润的做法而备受质疑。这真是不幸。
美国之所以在灾难过后总能迅速恢复元气，凭藉的就是这套自由市场制度。价格上涨表明生产需要增加，而消费需要抑制；地区间价格差异则引导稀缺资本实现更有效的配置。这套行之有效的机制面前真正的威胁就是政府干预。早在七十年代，政府实施能源价格最高上限的措施就导致产量下降，最终走入短缺局面。眼下，大部分输送管道和石油钻井、以及大约四分之三的炼油产能都已经恢复运转，油价也回落到卡特里娜到来之前的水平。只有汽油价格没降。造成汽油价格居高不下的原因就是炼油厂集中于飓风频发地带，并且相关环保规定导致产能受到很大限制。 好消息是美国经济在没有招致巨大损失的情况下已经消化了能源价格飞涨的影响。原因很简单：1979年以来美国实际GDP增长了一倍，而石油消费仅提高了12%。今年第二季度消费者的能源支出只占收入的4.7%，大大低于七十年代末、八十年代初的6%-7%。居民收入增长的速度超过了能源支出的增幅，因此消费者支出并没有如悲观者所料受到巨大打击。
这对卡特里娜飓风过后的重建来说也是一个好消息。美国经济形势稳固、失业率较低、被疏散的工人也已经开始找到新工作。此外，许多公司都表示，将在可以预见的将来一段时间内，继续向被疏散的员工支付薪水。总的来看，对9月份就业人数减少50万人的估计很可能有些过于悲观了。
零售销售的表现也好于预期。汽油价格因消费者担心供应短缺而飞涨，但大量捐赠物资的采购也推高了远离墨西哥湾沿岸各州的零售商的销售额。这些额外的购买将有助于抵消受灾地区的零售销售的减少。 有关经济的一种重要问题是Fed是否会继续加息。但卡特里娜的影响无法用货币政策来消除这一点看来也很明确。多次历史经验告诉我们，多余的货币政策调整只能让形势更加恶化，第二次世界大战后的德国、七十年代的滞胀都是如此。
1995年至1999年期间，美国通货膨胀率接近当前水平，联邦基金利率平均为5.4%，然而经济和股市却一片繁荣兴旺之势。因此，很难断定目前3.5%的联邦基金利率会不利于灾后经济发展。
若在三十年前，生产率发展处于停滞状态时，这几年发生的种种都很可能将经济拖入衰退的泥潭。但现如今，经济非但没有衰退，反而继续迅速扩张，企业利润持续增长。但无论如何，股市估值的增幅还没有跟上，本益比持续下滑。若与美国国债收益率相比，股市显然存在相当高的风险溢价。
正因为如此，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数和其他股票市场指数较卡特里娜来袭当天的低点已上涨3%，这样的表现毫不奇怪。股市的风险溢价已然很高，灾后重建工作不断加速，未来几周的股票价格也应该继续攀升。
政府的过度反应是当前经济面临的最大危险。政府增加支出已成定局，但这类支出往往都不会见效，也从来不能逆转。另外，政府支出增加还会削弱将来减税的效应，抑制经济发展。所以，为何不鼓励企业活动？在受灾地区建立免税区？削减汽油税，哪怕只是暂时的，也有助于抵消价格上涨压力。兴建更多核电厂和炼油厂，能源生产不要这样集中，都有助于削弱今后墨西哥湾风暴带来的影响。
七十年代的滞胀充分表明，政府干预给经济造成的损害超过任何风暴或恐怖袭击。本世纪的这些事件还只是刚刚开了个头，只要继续推行自由经济体系，就能逐步消化种种不利事件的影响。
