Currency Markets Take Beijing Move in Stride, for Now
It was the most hotly anticipated event for the foreign-exchange world in years. By most accounts, it was a watershed act, marking the first step toward a free-floating Chinese currency.
Yet as the dust settles following the yuan's revaluation, many currency managers and analysts are reaching a surprising conclusion: Nothing much has changed in their world. At least not yet.
They suggest that Beijing's 2.1% revaluation and decision to link the yuan to an undisclosed basket of currencies raises more immediate questions than it answers -- starting with when and what the Chinese will do next with their currency.
More broadly, traders will likely be watching how the many ripple effects from the revaluation are resolved before pushing the currency market in new directions. Among them: whether a stronger yuan emboldens commodity producers to raise prices; if Chinese companies will use a stronger currency to make more U.S. acquisitions; and whether U.S. companies importing from China will pass on any additional costs from a weaker dollar to American consumers, or instead force their Chinese suppliers to absorb them.
REVALUING THE YUAN
? Q&A: Yuan, trade, prices
? A first step: Washington, Wall Street React
? Econoblog: What's next?
? Background: History of floating rates
? China bank's statement
? See continuing coverage
The answers to these questions could play a role in influencing the direction of U.S. interest rates and global capital flows, which in turn would shape the value of the dollar.
"There are so many crosscurrents related to the revaluation," says Adnan Akant, a managing director and currency specialist at Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, New York-based money managers, who remains bullish on the dollar. "I'm not sure there are any clear repercussions for the dollar or the euro. It looks like a wash."
The dollar rebounded Friday after suffering a broad selloff in response to the yuan revaluation. The euro fell 0.9% against the dollar to $1.2061 late Friday in New York from $1.2176 late Thursday, back below the level where the euro traded prior to China's announcement. The dollar also rose to 111.33 yen from 110.16 yen, reversing some of its Thursday losses.
The U.S.'s economic growth prospects and its widening interest-rate differential with Europe have led currency managers to maintain a modest bias toward the dollar for the months ahead. Dollar bulls also say Beijing's move should help defuse political tensions between the U.S. and China, at least postponing a potential trade war that could have had a debilitating effect on the American economy.
The biggest dollar concern for many traders remains the widening U.S. trade deficit, which they argue will force the dollar to weaken in order to narrow that gap. Most economists say China would have to allow its currency to appreciate by much more than 2.1% if the yuan were to become strong enough to have a material effect on China's large trade surplus with the U.S.
That's not to say everything remains static. Speculative money could buy up other Asian currencies that some argue will strengthen because of the Chinese revaluation.
Asian governments often intervene to weaken their currencies to keep their exports globally competitive. South Korean officials last week made clear they would step in to prevent a rapid rise in the won.
If China allows its currency to appreciate further, however, its neighbors may feel more comfortable doing the same. Frank F.X. Gong, J.P. Morgan's chief economist for China, predicts a total yuan appreciation against the dollar of 7% by year end, and 15% by the end of 2006.
But others say it is far from clear how much Beijing will allow the yuan to strengthen in the months ahead. Although the new trading band allows the currency to move 0.3% a day either way against the dollar, Chinese authorities said the yuan closed Friday at 8.11 per dollar, the same level as the revaluation level established Thursday. The state-run China Daily, which is published in English and aimed at the foreign community, also reported that a bigger revaluation was "unrealistic."
Unlike other Asian governments during the currency crisis in 1997, when speculators caused the collapse of several currency regimes because the governments didn't have adequate reserves to defend their currencies, China boasts more than $700 billion in reserves. Strict capital controls should also keep the pace of appreciation in Beijing's hands, not those of speculators.
The yuan revaluation could eventually even alter the dynamics of how the dollar trades against the euro. "But people are still waiting to see what the implications will be," says Thomas Kushner, managing director for AIG Financial Products Corp. in Wilton, Conn.
One key is whether Asian central banks accelerate their diversification of reserves into the euro.
China didn't disclose the components in the basket of currencies to which the yuan is now pegged, but the euro is widely seen as a significant part of it. That suggests China will acquire more euros over time.
If Beijing and other Asian governments intervene less in the foreign-exchange market, allowing their currencies to strengthen against the dollar, they would have fewer dollars to invest. This could provide a headwind for the dollar and U.S. Treasury market, where most of those excess dollars are kept.
Yet these are slow-moving trends that matter at the margins, according to Anton Pil, global head of fixed income, currency and commodities at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "Over time, they may have an impact," he says. "They don't have an immediate impact."
外汇交易员的难题
它是多年来最受外汇市场热切企盼的事情，它是一个分水岭，标志著中国迈向自由浮动汇率制度的第一步。
然而，在因人民币升值而起一片喧嚣过去之后，许多货币经理和分析师得出了一个令人吃惊的结论：在他们的世界里，什么都没有改变，至少目前如此。
他们认为，中国政府让人民币升值2.1%，并决定将人民币汇率与一篮子货币挂钩，这一举动让人不禁产生了更多的疑问，首当其冲的就是中国下一步何时以及如何处理其汇率问题？
从更广泛的意义上看，在决定市场的走向之前，交易员们可能想观察一下人民币升值带来的连锁反应最终将如何化解。其中包括，人民币升值是否会增强了商品生产商提价的底气？中国公司是否会利用人民币升值在美国进行更多的收购？那些从中国进口商品的美国公司是否会将美元贬值而产生的额外成本转嫁给美国消费者，或者是否会强迫中国供应商自己消化这些成本？
对于上述问题的答案可能会对美国利率走势、及全球资本流向产生重大影响，这反过来也将影响美元汇率的高低。
纽约货币基金公司Fischer Francis Trees & Watts的董事总经理、同时也是货币专家阿德南?阿坎特(Adnan Akant)仍然看涨美元，他称，市场上出现了许多和重估人民币相关的矛盾趋势，我不清楚美元或欧元有什么明确的反应。
上周五，美元在人民币升值的消息引发全线抛售后有所反弹。纽约汇市上周五尾盘，欧元兑美元下跌0.9%至1.2061美元，而上周四尾盘为1.2176美元，至此欧元跌回至中国宣布重估人民币之前的水平。美元兑日圆也由110.16日圆上涨至111.33日圆，收复了上周四的部分失地。
鉴于美国的经济增长前景十分乐观，加之与欧洲的利差也日渐扩大，因此外汇经理们未来几个月将维持温和的美元看涨人气。看涨美元的人士还说，北京重估人民币的举动应有助于缓和美国和中国之间的政治紧张气氛，至少推迟一场可能削弱美国经济的贸易战的发生。
对于许多交易员来说，有关美元最大的担忧仍是不断扩大的贸易逆差，他们认为，为了收窄贸易逆差，美元将被迫走软。多数经济学家称，如果想要人民币升值对中国与美国庞大的贸易顺差产生实质性的影响，中国将不得不扩大人民币升值的幅度，要远远高于2.1%才行。
这并不是说一切都保持原状。投机性资金可能推高其他亚洲货币，一些人士认为，随著中国重估人民币，其他亚洲货币也将跟著升值。
一位驻香港的对冲基金经理称，中国的举措“极为令人兴奋”，－－这并非是因为中国有望让人民币进一步升值的前景，而是因为“亚洲货币全面被低估”的事实。
伦敦对冲基金Tiburon Partners的首席执行长马克?马蒂罗西安(Mark Martyrossian)此前断定人民币要升值，他不断增持马来西亚的投资，理由是东南亚国家将在中国重估人民币之际放弃各自钉住美元的汇率体制。这个赌打赢了，而且来得比多数人预想得要快，马来西亚在中国宣布重估人民币后立即就放弃了实施长达6年的钉住汇率体制。而由于预计此举将提振亚洲地区各大经济体的基本面，马蒂罗西安并不打算很快出售他在马来西亚的投资。他表示，“我们很高兴持有马来西亚资产。”
某美国对冲基金一位驻新加坡的管理人士称，他的确认为这是美元兑人民币长期走软势头的开始，而且可能还是向外国投资者传达的一个信号，即应当减持美元投资、增持亚洲货币资产。
亚洲各国政府经常干预外汇市场，以迫使本币走软，从而保持其出口在全球市场上的竞争力。韩国官员上周即明确表示，他们将入市干预，以遏制韩圆的快速升势。不过，如果中国允许人民币进一步升值，其邻国可能会更乐于跟进采取行动。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)中国研究部主管及首席经济师龚方雄(Frank F.X. Gong)预计，到今年年底，人民币兑美元将升值7%，到2006年末将升值15%。
但其他人则表示，未来几个月北京到底会让人民币升值多少还未可知。虽然在新设定的交易区间下，人民币兑美元每日可上下浮动0.3%，但中国政府称，上周五收盘时，美元兑人民币8.11元，与周四确立的重估水平相同。国有的《中国日报》(China Daily)也报导称，人民币更大幅度的升值是“不切实际的”。
与1997年亚洲金融危机期间的其他亚洲政府不同，中国拥有7,000亿美元的外汇储备。1997年亚洲金融危机期间，投机者促使几大货币大幅下挫，正是因为有关国家没有充足的外汇储备来保护他们的货币。严格的资本控制也应能让北京、而不是投机者掌握人民币升值步伐的主动权。
人民币升值可能最终改变美元兑欧元的交易动力。但AIG Financial Products Corp.的董事总经理托马斯?库什纳(Thomas Kushner)称，“人们仍在观望，以判断可能的影响。”
一个关键的问题是，亚洲各国央行是否将加快外汇储备多元化、增持欧元资产的步伐。中国并未披露人民币现在钉住的一篮子货币的构成，但人们普遍认为欧元占其中一大部分。这表明中国将在未来一段时间内增持更多的欧元。
如果北京和其他亚洲政府减少对外汇市场的干预，允许其货币兑美元走强，那么他们可以用来投资的美元也就会减少。这将不利于美元和美国国债市场，因为大多数的剩余美元都投资于美国国债了。
然而J.P. Morgan Private Bank固定收益、外汇和商品部门的全球主管安东?皮尔(Anton Pil)表示，这些是缓慢形成的趋势，随著时间的推移，这些趋势可能会产生影响。但它们不会产生立竿见影的效果。
