Is That Big Loser a Dog or a Deal?
Price isn't value. But it's all we've got.
Just because a stock or bond takes a tumble doesn't mean it is a bargain. It could be that the investment's fundamentals have deteriorated so badly that, even at today's depressed price, it's still overvalued.
Yet, the reality is, most of us have neither the time nor the skill to analyze an investment's underlying value, so we end up assuming that a beaten-up price signals a buying opportunity. A recipe for rotten results? Not necessarily.
The Price is Right
Is it a buy or a sell? When we look at investments, we all tend to presume that the financial markets have got it wrong and that the price should really be higher or lower. Today, for instance, people are convinced that long-term interest rates will rise, that the dollar will tumble in the foreign-exchange market and that you can't go wrong with real estate.
But I would be leery of such utter certainty, for two reasons. First, if "everybody" believes something, presumably many of them have already acted on this belief -- and thus this belief is already reflected in market prices.
Second, it's pretty arrogant for any of us to assume we know better than the market, because current market prices reflect the collective wisdom of all investors. Indeed, most of the time, an investment's price probably isn't that out of whack with its underlying value.
That said, great opportunities do occur, and the best indicator most of us have is a steep fall in price. But if you are going to equate plunging prices with good value, I would steer clear of individual stocks and stick with mutual funds.
The fact is, if a fund takes a beating over two or three years, that probably means the sector it specializes in is out of favor and eventually the fund will snap back. With an individual stock, however, a steep price decline may be entirely justified -- and there is a good chance the stock won't ever recover.
"There's a huge difference between asset classes and stocks," says Minneapolis financial planner Ross Levin. "Asset classes tend to 'mean revert'," meaning that good periods are followed by bad periods and vice versa.
"But stocks don't necessarily mean revert," Mr. Levin continues. "In fact, with stocks, you usually want to hang on to your winners and sell your losers."
Staying on Target
How do you take advantage of this mean reversion among market sectors and the funds that invest in them?
My standard advice is to set target portfolio percentages for your various funds and thereafter regularly rebalance back to these targets.
For instance, you might commit 5% of your stock portfolio to a fund that buys real-estate investment trusts. If REITs continue to climb, you would occasionally trim your REIT holdings, to keep them at the 5% level. Conversely, if REITs sink, you would buy more, to get your stake back up to 5%.
"Rebalancing is a contrarian strategy," says Allan Roth, a financial planner with Wealth Logic in Colorado Springs, Colo. "You're having to sell the hot asset class and buy the dog asset class, and that gives your returns a little bit of a boost."
Trendy Investments
Even if you set target percentages and regularly rebalance, that still leaves room for judgment, because you have to decide when to add new mutual funds to your portfolio and when to rebalance.
That's where a focus on price trends can prove valuable. When you buy a mutual fund, you might think of yourself as investing with a particular fund manager. But I would pay even more attention to the "asset class" that the manager specializes in, whether it's large U.S. growth companies, or emerging-market stocks, or high-yield "junk" bonds.
These asset classes tend to go through fairly long periods of popularity. For instance, in the late 1990s, the large-company stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index had a dazzling five-year run, with the heady gains coming to an abrupt halt in early 2000.
Similarly, since 2000, we have seen five strong years for both REITs and small-company "value" stocks. More recently, those two sectors have had choppy performance, though their 2005 results are still handily ahead of the broad stock-market averages.
In all this, there are two lessons for fund investors.
First, if you are interested in adding an asset class to your portfolio that has had one or two years of market-beating returns, you shouldn't necessarily shy away. It could be that the sector still has three or four years to run.
Second, because of this tendency for asset classes to enjoy long winning streaks, I would be a little flexible about how often you rebalance.
Usually, I suggest rebalancing every year. But if you are dealing with a fund that has just started to bounce back after a long slump, you might delay rebalancing for an extra year, so you squeeze more benefit out of the fund's recovery.
Losing Steam
What if you are dealing with sectors that are nosediving? Just as winning investments often stay buoyant for long stretches, so you also see momentum among falling investments. Because of that phenomenon, you shouldn't feel compelled to rush into once-hot investments that have suddenly turned cold.
Take REITs. The rally of the past five years was preceded by a 24% decline in the late 1990s. But those brave souls who took the initial dip in REIT prices as a buy signal had to wait a long time for their reward, because the decline lasted a grueling 23 months.
Indeed, if a sector or market is offering a historic buying opportunity, you will likely have plenty of time to make your purchase. For instance, the great 2000-2002 bear market hit bottom on October 9, 2002.
But to make good money, you didn't have to buy on precisely that day. In fact, if you bought shares of a well-diversified stock fund at any time in the year that followed, you would have been more than happy with the results.
下跌股是蹩脚货还是抢手货？
价格不是价值，但我们能够获得的却只有价格。
不能仅仅因为一只股票或债券大幅下挫就认为到了逢低吸纳的时候。情况可能是：投资基本面已不断恶化，即使按照目前极低的价格计算，这只股票或债券还是被高估了。
然而，现实情况是，多数人既没有时间，也没有能力去分析一项投资的潜在价值，因此我们常常会把价格下挫当作是买进的时机。这样做是否会导致投资失利呢？答案是不一定。
价格是正确的
买还是卖？当在审视一项投资的时候，我们往往会假设金融市场扭曲了价格，认为真正的价格应该更高或是更低。拿目前为例，让人们确信无疑的是：长期利率将继续上扬、外汇市场上美元将持续下挫、投资房地产也决不有错。
但我对于人们这种绝对的信心心存疑虑，原因有二。首先，如果“每个人”都相信一件事情，那么其中许多人可能已经按照这种信念采取行动了，因而这些思想已然被反映在了市场价格中。
其次，任何人如果认为自己比市场知道得多，那他就是太妄自尊大了，因为目前的市场价格体现的是所有投资者的集体智慧。事实上，在多数时候，一项投资的价格和它的潜在价值相比，可能并没有显得那么不正常。
这就是说，投资的良机的确出现了，我们多数人能感觉到最明显的标志就是价格的大幅下挫。不过如果要将价格下挫与良好的投资价值划上等号，我会避开个股，而坚持投资共同基金。
现实是，如果一只基金在过去的两三年内一直表现低迷，这可能意味著它专门投资的类股遭到了市场冷遇，但最终这只基金还是会东山再起。但如果持有的是个股，其价格的大幅下挫也许的确事出有因，该股从此一蹶不振的可能性极大。
明尼阿波利斯金融规划师罗斯?莱文(Ross Levin)称：“资产产品和股票有很大的不同，资产产品往往会‘回归平均值’，即其市场表现好和表现差的时期会交替出现。”
“但股票却不一定会回归平均值，”莱文说道，“事实上，当持有股票的时候，你常常会抓住盈利的股票不放，而抛售那些亏损的股票。”
设定目标
如何才能利用各种类股以及投资它们的基金的这种回归平均值特点呢？
我的标准建议是：为你的不同基金建立一个投资比例目标，并按照这些目标定期进行调整。
比如，在你的股票投资组合中，你将对一只专攻房地产投资信托基金(REIT)的基金的投资比例定为5%。如果REIT不断上扬，你就应该不定期地减持REIT，以确保其比例保持在5%的水平；相反，如果REIT不断下跌，同样为了保持上述5%的比例，你则应该增持REIT。
科罗拉多州Wealth Logic的金融规划师艾伦?罗思(Allan Roth)表示：“这样的做法是一种逆向投资策略。你不得不卖出热门资产而买进表现不佳的资产，你的投资回报率会因此得到一些提振。”
趋势投资
即便是你设定了投资目标比例，并定期进行调整，你有时还是需要进行一些判断，因为你必须要决定何时在投资组合中增加新的共同基金、何时进行比例的调整。
这时就能体现出价格趋势的价值。当你购买一只共同基金的时候，你可能认为自己是在和某一位基金经理一块儿投资。不过我会将更多的注意力放在这位经理专门投资的“资产类别”：是美国大型成长型公司、还是新兴市场股票、抑或是高收益率的“垃圾债券”。
上述资产类别往往会得到投资者长期的拥戴。比如，在上个世纪90年代后期，标准普尔500指数的大型股就经历了长达5年的辉煌时期，到2000年初这样的好日子才戛然而止。
同样，自2000年以来，REIT和小型“价值型”股票也经历了5年的强盛时期。不过，尽管这两类股票2005年的表现轻松超越了大盘，但它们最近的表现也开始出现起伏。
基金投资者们从中可以学到如下两点。
首先，如果你有兴趣在投资组合中增加一项已经有一两年表现强于大盘的资产种类，你可以不必犹豫，因为此类资产的强劲势头可能还能再延续三年或四年。
其次，由于这些资产类别有长期跑赢大盘的趋势，因此我会灵活掌握调整其投资比例的频率。
我通常建议大家一年调整一次。但如果你的基金是在经历了长期的低迷时期后，才刚刚开始反弹，你应该延迟一年再进行调整，这样就能从其反弹中获得更大的收益。
丧失动力
如果你投资的领域大幅下挫该怎么办？就像赢利的投资往往在长期内保持升势一样，你也可以在下跌的投资中找到同样的趋势，有鉴于此，如果一项曾经热门的投资突然变冷，你不应该急于去逢低买进。
以REIT为例。90年代末期，REIT下跌了24%，导致其在此前5年积累起来的涨幅消失殆尽。不过那些把REIT最初的下跌看作是买进信号的勇士们并没有如愿立即获得回报，因为此次痛苦的下挫持续了23个月。
实际上，如果一只类股或是市场出现了历史性的买进时机，你可能会有大量的时间进行买进。比如，2000至2002年大熊市，到2002年10月9日才触底。
不过，为了获得良好的投资回报，你不一定非得在反弹的那一天买进，实际上，如果你在接下来的一年中购买了分散投资的股票基金，你有可能会获得更好的回报。
