Adding Music Players To Cellphones Won't Be IPod Killer Some Think
Bill Gates had a warning for Apple Computer recently about its iPod: Time's almost up.
"I don't think the success of the iPod can continue in the long term, however good Apple may be," the Microsoft chairman told a German newspaper, adding that "Apple was once extremely strong with its Macintosh and graphic user interface, like with the iPod today, and then lost its position."
So what's going to push Steve Jobs & Co. off the top of the digital-music heap? The trendy pick is cellphones, which are steadily gaining capabilities and possibilities as the time-honored math of Moore's Law delivers more functions and memory for less money.
Handset makers and wireless carriers think they have one big advantage in competing with Apple's hit digital-music player: Cellphones are already in most pockets and purses. Moreover, companies have successfully added functions to cellphones -- witness the camera phone. Could a built-in MP3 player become the next gotta-have-it feature?
A host of companies are betting that it will. Motorola, Samsung Electronics, Sony-Ericsson Mobile Communications and Nokia are all chasing the prospect of digital-music riches, with new music-capable cellphones expected later this year. As for Mr. Gates, his comments came the same week Microsoft unveiled the latest version of its mobile-phone software. And Apple has licensed its music-player software to Motorola, though the Motorola iTunes phone is yet to appear amid chatter about disagreements between the partners.
But it's far too early to write Apple's digital-music epitaph: Mr. Jobs still has a number of advantages that may prove more formidable than his challengers imagine.
Perhaps the biggest is brand. Techies often get so obsessed with what's in a device that they underestimate the value of the name on it -- and Apple may have the tech world's best consumer brand. Mr. Jobs has revived his company's reputation for making easy-to-use products that boast great style. Satisfying an image-conscious kid with another digital-music player is like trying to teach the world to sing by buying it a C & C Cola. Meanwhile, cellphones command little brand loyalty, with users switching willy-nilly as service agreements end and phones die.
Still, cellphone users like to chase the latest fashions and functions, and it's possible the wow factor of a built-in music player could trump the allure of the iPod's now-famous white earbuds. But competing with the iPod when it comes to design and function is a bigger challenge. IPods are superb examples of design -- navigating between thousands of songs is only easy because Apple engineers made it so. Designwise, many cellphones are a lot like icebergs: one function obvious, the rest submerged and navigable only by the brave. It's a big leap of faith to think handset makers can approach the iPod's ease of use with a jack-of-all-trades device. Apple's competitors haven't managed it with their standalone devices, and they've had years to try.
Moreover, while the mechanics of transferring songs from a computer running Apple's iTunes to an iPod are straightforward, questions abound about how it would work with a cellphone. Could you transfer music to a PC? Back it up on a CD-ROM? Restore it if the phone is lost? Reclaim it if you get a new phone? Consumers will likely be skeptical, given their generally low opinion of cellphone service. After all, in a recent Forrester Research survey of various aspects of cellphone use, the best the wireless companies could do was 55% satisfaction among users.
Then there's that pesky business model. A hot new feature only helps wireless carriers if it makes money. While camera phones have some buzz, a recent survey by Jupiter Research found 52% of consumers wouldn't send a photo from their camera phone if it cost 30 cents to do so. Carriers will want users to buy songs from yet-to-be-developed music services and download them over their networks, but users may prefer to transfer their songs from a PC, which won't do the carrier much good.
And can a service provider match Apple's price of $1 a song? A lot has been made of the fact that ringtones command a premium -- up to $4 in some cases -- but the only connection between ringtones and songs is musical. Ringtones are made for public consumption; songs remain basically private listening experiences, with $1 well-established as their cost.
Given all these questions, users may decide cellphones' musical capabilities are cool but not particularly useful. After all, the iPod is pretty small already. If the standalone device is significantly easier to use than the combination, why not just carry both?
Finally, there's the fact that too many tech boxing matches get handicapped as if the leader is content to sit on its lead -- something you don't do if you want to survive in the Internet biz. There's no way Apple will hold still as cellphone makers take aim at it -- not after digital music allowed the company to muscle its way back into the home-computing mix. The iPod was followed in short order by the iPod Mini and the iPod Shuffle, and talk of other iProducts is a constant buzz around Cupertino. Who's to say an iCellphone isn't a possibility?
音乐手机难撼动IPod霸主地位
比尔?盖茨(BILL GATES)近期在谈到苹果电脑(Apple Computer)的iPod时曾给出这样一个预言：iPod即将风光不再。
盖茨在接受德国一家报纸采访时表示，“尽管苹果电脑或许还会大出风头，但我认为iPod的火爆销售势头难以长期维系。苹果电脑的Macintosh操作系统和图形用户界面也曾盛极一时，其风头之劲和今天的iPod一样，但最后还是褪去了光环。”
什么能将苹果电脑赶下数字音乐设备的霸主宝座呢？时下流行的一个观点是，手机能够完成这个任务。随著成本的降低，记忆体容量的扩大，手机的功能正在稳步增强。
手机制造商和无线运营商认为，在与苹果电脑的iPod展开竞争时，他们有这样一个优势：手机的使用已经非常普及，几乎人手一个。而且，他们为手机成功地添加了新功能，从可拍照的手机上就可见一斑。那么，内置MP3播放器是否会成为新一代手机的基本功能呢？
不少公司认为答案是肯定的。摩托罗拉(Motorola)、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)、索尼爱立信移动通讯有限公司(Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications Ltd.)以及诺基亚(Nokia)都在争先恐后地开发数码音乐市场。预计能够播放音乐的手机将于今年晚些时候面市。
但现在就认为iPod将走向没落还为时尚早。iPod有不少优势，而手机制造商和无线运营商们或许低估了iPod的这些优势。
也许最大的优势是品牌效应。科技迷们往往把过多的注意力都放在了一个设备的内部功能上面，但却低估了产品品牌的价值，而苹果电脑的消费品品牌在全球科技行业内可能是首屈一指的。苹果电脑在生产风格独特、易于使用的产品方面声名显赫。在苹果电脑品牌形象的感召下，说服年轻人购买新的数码音乐播放器是一件很简单的事。与此形成鲜明对比的是，随著服务协议的终结以及产品的推陈出新，消费者们三天两头地更换手机，显然手机品牌的忠诚度低得可伶。
不过，手机用户往往喜欢赶时髦，也乐于尝试新功能，推出内置音乐播放器的手机有可能满足一些消费者的好奇心，从而对iPod造成一些冲击。但要想在设计及功能方面挑战iPod就比较困难了。IPods的设计堪称一流，得益于苹果电脑工程师的杰出设计，用户可以对上千首歌曲操作自如。许多手机在设计方面就相形见绌了。手机制造商要想设计出在简便易用的万事通产品，恐怕还要下很大一番功夫。苹果电脑的竞争对手们在单一产品上尝试了多年之后，在简便易用方面仍有些不尽人意。
此外，通过苹果电脑的iTunes软件，可以轻松实现将个人电脑里面的歌曲导入到iPod之中，但要想实现电脑与手机的互联互通，问题可就多了。例如，能否把把手机里面的歌曲导入到电脑里面？能否用光驱来备份歌曲？如果电话丢失了还能恢复歌曲么？如果换了一部手机，还能把歌曲从旧手机导入到新手机里面么？
消费者可能会心存疑虑，因为他们对手机的服务普遍评价不高。例如，Forrester Research近期的一份调查显示，用户对无线运营商所能提供的各项服务的满意度最高也只有55%。
还有，经营模式也是个问题。只有在能够带来利润的情况下，一个热门新功能才会对无线运营商有所帮助。尽管照相手机非常时髦，但Jupiter Research近期的一项调查发现，如果通过手机发送照片的收费为0.30美元的话，52%的受访者表示不会使用这项服务。无线运营商希望用户通过他们正在开发的音乐服务购买歌曲，然后利用他们的无线网络下载这些歌曲，但用户或许更倾向于通过PC来传送歌曲。如果是这样，无线运营商就无法从中获得多少好处。
另外，无线运营商在收费方面能够与对每首歌曲只收取1美元使用费的苹果电脑相匹敌么？事实上，手机铃声收费不菲，有些铃声的收费甚至达到每首4美元，但铃声和歌曲的相同点就在于它们都是音乐。铃声是供大众消费的，而歌曲基本上属于个人消费范畴，1美元的收费标准在消费者的心目中已经根深蒂固。
从上面种种分析来看，用户或许会认为音乐播放是手机的一种华而不实的功能。
最后要说的是，在互联网时代，如果要想生存下去，即便是行业领头羊也不能满足现状、不思进取。苹果电脑不可能在手机制造商纷纷把竞争的矛头指向它的时候仍然稳坐钓鱼台。苹果电脑在推出iPod不久之后又相继推出了iPod Mini和iPod Shuffle，不时还有传闻称苹果电脑还会推出其他i产品。谁敢说苹果电脑不会推出自己的手机呢？
