Asia needs to create more of its own growth
Eight years on, Asia's financial crisis seems a distant memory. Despite higher oil prices, growth has rebounded in many countries, private investment is gradually recovering, consumer confidence is strengthening and rising current account surpluses are swelling foreign exchange reserves.
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However, the party could quickly end. The reason is that so much of east Asia's recovery, like its pre-crisis growth, has been export-led. Its main motor is exports to China, whose own growth depends significantly on markets in the US and Europe. That leaves the region uncomfortably exposed to external shocks.
The biggest threat is not from a re-pegging of the renminbi and other Asian currencies against the US dollar: most economies could absorb the competitive impact of any likely revaluation. The greater risks are, first, that simmering protectionist pressures will boil over in the US and Europe; and second, that east Asia will exhaust its capacity to fund the twin US deficits by acquiring US assets, so triggering a dollar collapse, soaring US interest rates and recession.
Asia needs to guard against those dangers. The best way to do so is to generate more of its own growth by stimulating domestic demand. That would be sensible in any case. It would strengthen both Asian and western economies and help reduce global imbalances. And the means to achieve it are at hand.
East Asia is awash with capital, created by the high household savings rates that generate its current account surpluses. Most of the money, above all in China, is in bank accounts yielding puny returns. It needs to be put to better use. Fortunately, plenty of more productive alternatives exist.
Bigger investment in infrastructure is a priority. The World Bank estimates that east Asia needs to spend $1,000bn on physical infrastructure. Many poorer countries are crying out for better schools and healthcare. Meanwhile, falling birth rates and rapidly ageing populations are creating a looming pensions problem. The crunch may be 20 years away but, to avert it, proper pensions schemes need to be set up and funds poured into them fast.
One possible objection is that higher government spending could undermine the fiscal rectitude that many Asian governments have striven for since the crisis. But with so much cheap domestic capital available, there is room for more borrowing. And Asia has plenty of scope to expand private financing. As for pension funding, much of it will come from re-allocating existing savings.
Far more important is how well the money is spent. Infrastructure investment in much of Asia is notoriously inefficient, often politicised and a source of corruption. These abuses need to be stopped, and the opaque procurement procedures that encourage them cleaned up.
But micro-reforms should go further. There is potentially huge untapped domestic demand in Asia for more diverse and efficient services, particularly financial services. But in many countries, their development is thwarted by rigid market barriers, primitive and anti-competitive regulation and poor corporate governance. As long as those problems persist, hopes that Asia's embryonic pensions industry will boost productive private investment will be frustrated.
Finally, Asia needs to liberalise trade further. Much intra-regional trade today consists of capital goods and products being shunted through cross-border supply networks on their way to China. The region needs to deepen integration by creating bigger local markets for finished products and for services.
Some of these challenges are already being tackled, or at least talked about. But the fragility of the global financial system and the threat it poses to Asia's prosperity are powerful reasons for stepping up the pace of economic reforms.
Most will not be achieved quickly, even if supported by stronger political will. Nor, obviously, will they be enough on their own to correct global imbalances. The US must also get serious about curbing its deficits and continental Europe must do more to invigorate its torpid growth rate.
The point, however, is that Asia needs to take these actions anyway, to ensure its stable economic development in the future. It should start getting on with them now.
亚洲急需加强自身增长
八年过去了，亚洲金融危机仿佛成了一个遥远的回忆。尽管油价高企，很多国家却重现增长，同时私人投资逐渐恢复，消费者信心增强，经常性帐户盈余上升，外汇储备随之大增。
这一切可能很快就会繁华落尽。原因是，东亚的复苏在很大程度上都是以出口为导向的，这和金融危机前相同。该地区主要增长动力是对中国的出口，而中国自身发展又严重依赖欧美市场。这使得该地区处境不妙，易于受到外来冲击的影响。
最大的威胁倒不是将人民币及其它亚洲货币与美元重新挂钩：大多数经济体都可以经受任何可能重估所带来的竞争性影响。更大的风险在于：首先，欧美的保护主义压力尘嚣日上；其次，东亚收购美国资产、为美国“孪生赤字”（巨额的财政赤字和外贸逆差）提供资金的能力将枯竭，进而引发美元贬值，美元利率飙升，并最终导致经济衰退。
亚洲需要防备这些风险。最好的办法是刺激内需，形成自我增长。无论在任何情况下，这都是明智之举。这会强化亚洲经济及西方经济，有助于缓解全球的失衡现状。达成这些目标的手段也是现成的。
由于较高的家庭储蓄率产生经常性帐户盈余，因此东亚的资金十分充裕。这些资金大多在银行里，回报微不足道，这一现象在中国尤其突出。这些资金需要有更好的用途。幸运的是，有很多更有效率的方案可供选择。
加大基础设施投资属优先事项。世界银行估计，东亚需要投入1万亿美元用于有形基础设施。很多比较贫穷的国家都迫切需要更好的学校和医疗保健。与此同时，出生率下降和老龄化人口造成重大的退休金问题。危机可能在20年后之后才会出现，但是为避免危机，就需要建立合理的退休金方案，迅速注入资金。
可能会有一种异议：增加政府开支可能会有损财政透明度，而自金融危机以来，亚洲许多政府就一直力求实现财政透明。但是由于国内资金充裕，贷款空间仍然存在。亚洲在拓展私人融资方面尚有发展余地。在退休基金方面，大部分基金将来自对现有储蓄进行重新分配。
更重要的是资金使用效率。在亚洲大部分地区，基础设施投资以效率低下而闻名，这种投资常被政治化，还会滋生腐败。应当制止这些不当行为，同时应当疏通促发这些问题的采购程序。
但是微观改革还要进一步深化。亚洲还有尚未发掘的巨大内需，服务多样化和效率都有待提高，尤其是在金融服务方面。但是，许多国家的发展受制于诸多因素，比如存在僵化的市场壁垒、法规不健全并且压制竞争、公司治理水平低下。只要这些问题持续存在，亚洲初生的退休金行业就不太可能推进富有成效的私人投资。
最后，亚洲需要进一步实现贸易自由化。目前，区域间贸易大多是前往中国的资金商品和产品通过跨国界供应网络转移。该地区需要形成更大规模的成品和服务本地市场，从而加深地区一体化。
人们对上述一些挑战正采取行动，至少已进行讨论。但是，全球金融体制的脆弱性及其对亚洲繁荣所形成的巨大威胁足以让人有理由加快经济改革步伐。
即便有很强的政治意愿，多数事宜也难以速成。显然，光靠亚洲国家的力量也无法解决全球性失衡。美国也必须认真控制自己的赤字问题，而欧洲大陆则须采取措施，为迟缓的增长率注入活力。
关键在于，无论如何，亚洲都需要采取上述行动，这样才能确保未来岁月里经济的稳定发展。所以现在就该着手行动了。
