The clock ticks in Washington as friends drift away
Clay Shaw, the new Republican chairman of the House of Representatives subcommittee on trade, has spent much of the early part of his tenure trying to stem a swelling tide of anti-China sentiment in Congress. At one of his many Washington speaking engagements on the topic, an appreciative organiser presented him with a clock. Only when Mr Shaw returned to his office did he notice that the gift bore the ubiquitous stamp Made in China.
The origin of the clock is not surprising. With China running a $13.9bn trade surplus with the US in February up by more than two-thirds on the same month last year a growing percentage of Americans' appetite for consumer goods is being met by China. After years of simmering resentment over what many in Congress see as China's unfair trade practices that drive US manufacturers out of business, legislators are no longer content to wait for the administration to act against China and are ready to take affairs into their own hands. Last week, bipartisan proposals were raised in both houses that would penalise Chinese goods entering the US.
In the Senate, an amendment proposed by Charles Schumer, a Democrat from New York, and Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, would slap a 27.5 per cent tariff on all imports from China unless Beijing revalues the renminbi within six months. In the House, a bill submitted by Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican Duncan Hunter would allow the government to declare currency manipulation unfair trade and impose an offsetting tariff.
Such measures seem to stand a growing chance of success. Mr Schumer said he was “amazed” by the level of support for his amendment after the Senate voted 67-33 not to kill his proposal. That forced Senate leaders to agree to a vote on the measure by the end of July.
“ When Congressmen face the electorate in 2006, they will want to go to their districts and say they did something about China,” says Mr Ryan, from the trade-buffeted state of Ohio. “The pressure for this has
been percolating up from our constituencies. Many of the
businesses in our districts don't
have much time left, because of
unfair practices from China.”
Even opponents of Congressional action concede that pressure is mounting. Mr Shaw worries that a vote for measures against China will be hard to resist. “It is a hard thing for many of our members to vote against,” he says. “When protectionism rears its ugly head, they face the choice of acting responsibly or going for a tariff that may be popular with their constituents.”
Administration loyalists such as Mr Shaw believe Congressional action against China would be irresponsible because the Chinese economy and its debt-laden banks could be destabilised by a dramatic or sudden revaluation of the renminbi which would in turn undermine the market for US exports to the country. They also worry that Congressional pressure might prompt the Chinese government to dig in its heels. “The proper way to handle this is for the administration to negotiate,” says Mr Shaw. “If Congress starts throwing its weight around, we may not get anywhere.”
China has been running short of friends in the US, although big businesses, especially those that manufacture in China for the US market, have been urging restraint. US companies using China as a base from which to export are anxious to prevent any congressional action that could restrict shipments of Chinese goods to the US. At a recent meeting with Mr Schumer, representatives from several large businesses urged the senator to hold back. However, by the end of the meeting, according to Mr Schumer, none were prepared to deny that China was cheating on trade.
Large companies have complaints of their own: what they see as a contemptuous treatment of their intellectual property rights in China and its sluggish progress in opening up its market to US goods. “While companies that have been investing in China are keen to avoid a fight, most now want to turn up the heat,” says Frank Vargo, of the National Association of Manufacturers.
Many members of Congress believe the renminbi is 40 per cent undervalued and want China to start taking steps. “We understand that it can't be done immediately but they should have done 5 per cent this year and more next,” says Mr Schumer. “What is infuriating is their unwillingness to budge at all.”
Most worryingly for China, even those who oppose new tariffs want the administration to do more. “This clearly deserves attention,” says Mr Shaw. “Nobody is now disputing that China is not playing fair on trade.” Christopher Swann 中国在美国的朋友不多了
来自共和党的美国众议院贸易委员会新任主席科雷?肖（ Clay Shaw ）在其任职初期的大部分时间内，都试图阻止在国会中滋生的一股反华浪潮。他在华盛顿已多次就此话题发表演讲，而在其中一次演讲中，组织者为了表示谢意赠送了一个钟给他。回到办公室后，肖先生才发现，正如许多别的东西一样，这份礼物贴有中国制造的标签。
关于这个钟的原产地并没有什么可奇怪的。中国 2 月份对美国的贸易顺差达到 139 亿美元，比去年同期增长三分之二以上。美国人的消费需求正越来越多地依靠中国来满足。国会中许多人数年来的怨气不断激化，他们认为中国的不公平贸易抢去了美国制造商的生意。现在，这些立法者们已经不再满足于等待行政当局采取反对中国的行动了，他们已准备好自己来管这件事情。上周，参众两院都提交了由两党联合起草的议案，要对中国进口货物进行惩罚。
在参议院，由来自纽约州的民主党议员查尔斯?舒马 (Charles Schumer) 和南卡罗来纳州的共和党议员林西?格雷厄姆 (Lindsey Graham) 共同提出的一份修正案建议，如果北京不在 6 个月内对人民币进行重估，美国将对所有从中国进口的产品征收 27.5% 的关税。在众议院内，民主党议员蒂姆?莱恩（ Tim Ryan ）和共和党议员邓肯?亨特 (Duncan Hunter) 提交了议案，要求政府宣布操纵货币汇率为不公平贸易，应征收补偿性关税。
看来这些措施的成功机会越来越大。舒马先生表示，对修正案的支持率使他感到“惊讶”。参议院以 67 对 33 票保留了这份议案，于是迫使参议院两党领导人同意在 7 月底之前就上述措施进行投票。
莱恩先生来自饱受贸易冲击的俄亥俄州，他说：“ 2006 年众议院进行选举，参选议员希望能够对本区选民们说，他们针对中国的问题做了些事。这种压力已经从选民那里传了过来。由于中国的不公平行为，我们选区的许多企业已经没剩下多少日子了。”
即使是这些国会行动的反对者们也承认，压力正不断增加。肖先生担心，一场为反华措施进行的投票在所难免。他表示：“要使许多议员们投反对票是件难事。当保护主义露出其狰狞面目时，他们就要面临选择：要么采取负责任的行动，要么迎合选民期望，征收关税。”
像肖先生这样的政府支持者们认为，国会的反华行动是不负责任的。对人民币汇率进行大幅度或突然的重估可能会使中国经济及其坏帐累累的银行变得不稳定，因而也会破坏美国对中国的出口。他们还担心，美国国会的压力会使中国更固执己见。“合适的解决方法是让政府去谈判，”肖先生表示，“如果国会开始到处耀武扬威，我们可能什么事也办不成。”
中国在美国的朋友已经越来越少，尽管有一些大企业，特别是在中国生产并到美国市场销售的企业，一直呼吁国会要克制自己的行动。以中国作为生产基地，并从那里出口的美国公司很希望能防止国会采取任何限制中国产品出口的措施。在最近一次和舒马先生的会晤中，几家大企业的代表力劝这位参议员不要采取行动。然而，据舒马先生表示，直到会议结束，也没有人愿意否认中国在贸易上采取了欺骗行为。
大公司也有自己的委屈：在它们看来，中国以轻蔑的态度对待它们的知识产权，而且中国市场对美国产品的开放进度也相当缓慢。美国全国制造商协会（ National Association of Manufacturers ）的弗兰克?瓦格（ Frank Vargo ）表示：“尽管在中国已有投资的企业希望避免这场战斗，但是现在他们大部分人都想多施加一点压力。”
国会中许多议员相信，人民币被低估了 40% ，他们希望中国能够开始采取改变措施。“我们理解这事不可能一次完成。但是今年应该能做 5% ，明年可以再多一些。可是令人感到愤怒的是，他们根本不愿意做出任何让步。”
让中国最为担心的是，即使那些反对新关税的人也希望美国政府能做得更多一些。肖恩先生表示：“很明显这事值得引起人们关注。中国没有在贸易上采取公平竞争，这一提法已经没有人争议了。”
