China's exports top Japan's
China has overtaken Japan as the world's third-largest exporter, the World Trade Organisation said yesterday, after a surge in demand for its electronic goods led to a 35 per cent increase in the country's overseas sales.
ADVERTISEMENT
However, a slackening of the pace of investment by China and the US was likely to moderate economic activity and as a result trade growth this year, the WTO said.
It now expects growth of world trade in goods to slow to 6.5 per cent this year from 9 per cent in 2004, although this would still be more than the average for the past decade. Higher oil prices and interest rates would contribute to the slowdown as would industry forecasts of a “pronounced weakening” in the information and telecommunications equipment sectors.
Double-digit increases in global shipments of mobile phones, digital cameras, semiconductors and personal computers gave an important increase to exports of several East Asian countries last year.
Electronic goods account for a third of Chinese exports and between one-third and two-thirds of exports from Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines.
The 35 per cent increase in the value of China's exports in 2004, which were up by a fifth in volume terms, was largely propelled by a 45 per cent surge in exports of electronic goods, according to Michael Finger, WTO senior economist.
By contrast, shipments of textiles and clothing, which make up less than 10 per cent of Chinese exports, rose 15-17 per cent by value last year.
In dollar terms, world trade in goods rose 21 per cent in 2004 to $8,880bn. This was the biggest increase in 25 years, reflecting both strong real growth and an 11 per cent hike in dollar prices due to depreciation of the US currency.
World trade in commercial services rose a nominal 16 per cent to $2,100bn, with a strong recovery in transport and travel services.
China is now the biggest merchandise trader in Asia and the third-largest in the world for both exports and imports, making it an important driver of world trade growth. Its insatiable appetite for fuel and other raw materials was one reason why high oil prices failed to depress the global economy last year, Mr Finger noted.
Demand from China also helped boost trade in other regions, especially Africa and South America, where Chinese investment in both natural resources and manufacturing has burgeoned in recent years.
Africa's exports, helped by high oil prices, rose by more than 30 per cent in dollar terms last year, and exports from South and Central America showed a similar increase. The value of exports by all developing countries rose by more than a quarter, bringing their share of world trade to 31 per cent; the highest since 1950.
China's role in underpinning world trade may become even more important this year if, as forecast, the falling dollar starts to restrain US import growth. The US trade deficit, at $618bn in 2004, was equivalent to a record 6 per cent of US GDP and 7 per cent of total world merchandise trade, the WTO said.
中国首超日本成为全球第三大出口国
世界贸易组织(WTO)昨天说，中国已超过日本，成为全球第三大出口国。对中国电子商品的需求猛增，使中国的海外销售上升了35%。
但世贸组织表示，中国和美国的投资步伐不断减缓，可能会使经济活动趋缓，今年的贸易增长可能因而减速。
世贸组织预计，今年的世界商品贸易增长尽管仍会高于过去10年的平均水平，但将从2004年的9%放缓至6.5%。造成这种状况的部分原因是油价和利率的上升，另外一个原因是产业预测显示，信息与通信设备产业将出现“明显变弱”。
移动电话、数码相机、半导体和个人电脑的全球出货量呈现两位数增长，是导致去年多个东亚国家出口增长的重要原因。
电子商品占中国出口的三分之一，而在新加坡、台湾、韩国、马来西亚及菲律宾的出口中，电子商品的出口比例在三分之一至三分之二之间。
世贸组织高级经济学家迈克尔?芬格(Michael Finger)表示，中国2004年出口值增幅达35%，出口量则上升20%，出口增长主要是受到电子产品出口激增45%的推动。
相比之下，去年纺织品和服装的出口值增长了15%到17%。在中国总的出口产品中，纺织品和服装的比重还不到10%。
以美元计算，2004年全球贸易商品金额增长了21%，达8.88万亿美元。这是25年来最大的增幅，这既是实际增长强劲的反映，也反映出因美元贬值，产品以美元计的价格上涨了11%。
芬格先生指出，中国目前是亚洲最大的商品贸易国家，也是全球第三大贸易进出口国，使其成为全球贸易增长的重要推动者。中国对燃料和其它原材料难以满足的需求，是高油价去年未能打击全球经济的一个重要原因。
来自中国的需求也帮助推动了其它地区的贸易，特别是非洲和南美洲。在这些地区，中国在自然资源和制造业的投资近年出现快速发展。
