More Gadgets Than Profitable Ideas Displayed at CES
THE LAS VEGAS CONVENTION CENTER LAST WEEK was awash in electronic gizmos, gadgets and geegaws of every size and description, along with 120,000 or so people who make, distribute, sell, assess and write about them. Also in attendance were the usual assortment of tech-irrelevant celebrities: Robert Redford. Aerosmith's Steven Tyler. Guitar legend Les Paul. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Powell. And would it be a Consumer Electronics Show without The Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders?
The reigning champion of the tech trade show world, CES this year sported 1.5 million square feet of the latest and greatest wonders from 2,400 companies. With a single exception (which I'll get to in a moment) everyone who is anyone in the tech business was at this year's show.
This also applies to the tech press -- there were about 4,000 reporters on hand, which the Consumer Electronics Association points out is more than are at a Super Bowl and Wimbledon combined. That makes me suspect I can safely skip the extended description of the eight bazillion flat-panel displays, digital cameras and car stereos on exhibit, and instead pass along a short list of takeaways for investors.
Problem No. 1: Too much of a good thing.
In case you haven't figured it out yet, the consumer-electronics business is intensely, insanely competitive. Of course, there are excellent reasons for that; the CEA predicts global consumer electronics sales this year will grow 11%, to about $125 billion, after 11% growth in 2004, which by the way was far better than the 4% CEA had forecast a year ago. That's more growth than almost anyone expects from corporate tech spending, and helps explain a lineup of keynote speakers from companies once considered more as big players in enterprise technology: Microsoft, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Motorola and Texas Instruments.
The rise in consumer electronics demand has been driven -- as any executive at the show would gleefully describe -- by the realization of some of the consumer-electronics industry's longest-held goals: the rapid spread of wireless networks and devices, the convergence of communications and computing hardware and the growing adoption of high-definition flat-panel video displays. Unfortunately, while many of these devices indeed are technologically wondrous, they are also increasingly suffering the consequences of commoditization and low-cost Asian manufacturing.
A 102-inch plasma TV and the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders, too.
At one point last week, I became convinced that every product on the show floor, ranging from toothbrushes to TVs, contained, among other features, a 4-gigabyte removable memory card, 256 meg of internal memory, a 30-gig hard drive, a USB port for connecting to a PC (enabling uploading of digital photos), Bluetooth and Wi-Fi wireless connectivity (enabling Internet connectivity and multi-player gaming) and a display screen suitable for watching movies (preferably Shrek 2, Spiderman 2, SpongeBob Squarepants or Star Wars) in true high definition with 32 billion colors. Optional leather case not included.
David Pearl, managing director of Epoch Investment Partners, a New York- money-management firm, suggested that investors considering betting on a consumer-electronics outfit first take a walk through the show's international area, which as usual was held not in the convention center, but rather across the way in the Las Vegas Hilton. "Whatever categories of products you see over there are not investable," advised Pearl, while standing right in front of the world's largest television, Samsung's behemoth 102-inch plasma display, topping last year's 80-inch model. "That eliminates about 85% of what's being displayed at the show." Walk around those international booths, which are dominated by obscure Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers, and you found, among other things, a wide range of flat-panel screens, MP3 and DVD players and global positioning system devices. Eventually, Pearl figures, those companies will drive prices for such products too low to make them profitable for most manufacturers.
This is not to say there are no companies worth investing in -- there's that other 15%, remember. Pearl, for instance, likes the prospects for a company called Silicon Image, which makes devices enabling a standard called HDMI that allows for easy connections of high-definition televisions to stereo receivers and other system components. (Now that I think of it, I should have added "HDMI-capable" to the list of features sported by more or less everything.) He's also keen on Microsoft, which he thinks is showing admirable judgment by finding ways to return cash to shareholders. But in general, he's advising caution.
He's not the only one: T.J. Singh, a fund manager with Reliance Capital, a New York hedge fund, interviewed by the light of the same giant television, advised that he'd recently taken his 2004 profits, sold all of his stocks and moved into cash. Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch tech curmudgeon Steve Milunovich wrote in a commentary Friday morning that investors ought to consider shifting from consumer-tech stocks to enterprise-oriented names. His theory: "With the U.S. savings rate at essentially zero, consumer spending is likely to take a hit."
Problem No. 2: The Man Who Wasn't There.
By a long measure, 2004's most influential consumer-electronics product was Apple Computer's iPod music player. Apple didn't have a visible presence at CES, which is less surprising when you remember that the company this week will host its own personal techfest, Macworld, in San Francisco. Many, many companies displayed MP3 players at CES, some with features unavailable on the iPod, such as voice recorders, FM radio tuners and the ability to record and store FM broadcasts.
Apple's rivals put on a brave face: Dick Komiyama, the president of Sony Electronics, asserted that when it comes to music players, we are only in the first inning of a nine-inning game. Well it may be the first inning, but it's already 15-0. And Randy Johnson is on the mound.
Rumors about what Apple will announce at MacWorld were a hot topic. How about a hand-held video iPod? There were certainly a lot of hand-held video players at CES, devices smaller than a paperback book designed with large hard drives and three-inch-diagonal screens designed to let you watch full-length movies anywhere. But Jobs has asserted in the past that such a portable video player has much less appeal than a music player.
Other possibilities: a collaboration with a cellphone company; a cheaper iPod that uses flash memory, rather than a hard drive; a "headless" Mac without a monitor -- that possibility cropped up on an Apple-related rumor site, which has since been sued by Apple for disclosing trade secrets; or even some sort of home- media device, Apple's answer to Microsoft Windows Media Center software. Or maybe all of them. Or none. Steve ain't saying.
Problem No. 3: The beast from the East.
In a Thursday afternoon press conference, Peter Weedfald, senior vice president for strategic marketing and new media at Samsung's U.S. unit in Ridgefield Park, N.J., disclosed that the company plans to spend $7.5 billion on research and development in 2005, more than double last year's $3 billion.
Samsung had revenue for 2004's first nine months of $41 billion, more than the $34.5 billion reported for all of 2003. And this year, Weedfald says, its sales should grow by more than the 11% CEA sees for the industry. Once a sleepy Korean giant, Samsung has usurped Sony's position as the most dynamic Asian consumer-electronics maker. Says Weedfald: "I'm telling you, we're on a tear." Samsung's rivals will suffer the consequences.
透视拉斯维加斯电子产品展
上周的拉斯维加斯会议中心，放眼皆是大小不一、琳琅满目的电子产品，以及从事这些产品的制造、批发、销售、评价和宣传的12万人。
作为首屈一指的科技贸易展，消费者电子产品展览会(Consumer Electronics Show, 简称CES)今年在150万平方英尺的空间里展示了2,400家公司最新、最出色的科技产品。除了一个缺席（这我会在稍后提到），所有的科技公司都来了。
科技媒体也是如此，大约有4,000名记者到场，消费者电子协会(Consumer Electronics Association, 简称CEA)指出，这甚至超过了超级碗赛(Super Bowl)和温布尔顿网球公开赛(Wimbledon)所吸引记者人数的总和。因此，在给投资者开出一份推荐股名单前，笔者恐怕还要先对展会上的众多平板显示器、数码照相机和汽车音响说上几句。
问题一：投资需谨慎
消费者电子产品行业的竞争已到了非常激烈，甚至不那么良性的程度，但投资该行业似乎依然有充足的理由：CEA预计全球消费者电子产品的销售额在继2004年增长11%后今年将再增加11%，达到1,250亿美元，这比CEA一年前预测的4%多高出了很多。这也几乎高于所有人预期的企业科技支出增幅，并有助于解释为何众多一度被认为是企业科技业巨头的公司也派人在此次展会上作了主旨报告，这些公司包括微软(Microsoft)、英特尔(Intel)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、摩托罗拉(Motorola)和德州仪器(Texas Instruments)等。
正如展会上一些管理人士所言，推动消费者电子产品需求增长的正是该行业一些长期目标的实现：无线网络的日益扩张和无线设备的普及，通信设备和电脑硬件的融合，以及高清晰度平板视频显示器的日益应用。不幸的是这些设备的技术虽然非常出彩，但也日益受到产品商品化和低成本亚洲制造商的威胁。
上周，我发现展出的每件产品从牙刷到电视机，配置都非常棒，包括4G的可拆卸记忆卡、256兆内存、30G的硬盘、可连接个人电脑的USB接口（可上传数码相片）、蓝牙和Wi-Fi无线接入（可实现上网和多用户游戏等）以及适宜观看电影的32色高清晰度显示屏。可选置的皮套还不算。
纽约投资管理公司Epoch Investment Partners的董事总经理戴维?珀尔(David Pearl)表示，考虑投资消费者电子类股的投资者们首先参观了位于会议中心对面的展览会国际区。站在全球最大的电视机──三星电子(Samsung)庞大的102英尺等离子屏幕（去年推出的还是80英尺的规格）前，珀尔表示，“出席展会的公司85%都不值得投资者考虑。”走在由不知名的中国和台湾制造商占主导地位的国际区展会摊位前，你可以看到种类繁多的平板显示器、MP3、DVD播放器以及全球定位系统设备等等。珀尔称，这些公司将逐步压低相关产品的价格，使大多数制造商无利可图。
这并不是说没有公司值得投资，别忘了还有剩下的15%。比如，珀尔看好Silicon Image的前景，这家公司生产采用HDMI的产品，使得高清晰度电视机能与视频接收器以及其他系统配件轻松连接。他还推崇微软，认为该公司在以现金回馈股东方面展现了令人钦佩的胆识。但总的来说，他提醒投资者需谨慎。
而且，他并不是唯一一个提醒人们要谨慎的人；纽约对冲基金Reliance Capital的基金经理T.J. Singh称，他最近卖出了所有的股票，将2004年的利润进行了兑现。与此同时，美林(Merrill Lynch)的史蒂夫?米洛诺维奇(Steve Milunovich)在上周五的一份评论中写道，投资者应考虑从消费者科技类股转向企业科技类股。他的理由：随著美国的储蓄率基本为零，消费者支出可能会承受压力。
问题二：缺席者
从很大程度上来说，2004年影响最大的消费者电子产品是苹果电脑(Apple Computer)的iPod音乐播放器。苹果电脑没有出现在CES的现场，这并不太出人意料，因为该公司本周将在旧金山举行自己的科技盛会Macworld。许多公司都在CES上展示了其MP3播放器，一些还有iPod不具备的功能，如录音、FM广播以及录制、存储FM广播的功能。
苹果电脑的竞争对手看起来很有信心：索尼电子(Sony Electronics)的总裁Dick Komiyama力称，在音乐播放器方面，现在还处于一个9场比赛的第一场。哦，这也许的确还只是第一场，但比分早已成了15比0。
有关苹果电脑会在MacWorld上宣布什么，是眼下的热门话题。一款手持的可视iPod？CES上早已有了许多手持视频播放器，规格小于一本简装书，大容量的硬盘和3英尺显示屏配置，足可随时随地观看整部电影。但乔布斯(Jobs)向来声称，这样一台便携式视频播放器的吸引力不如音乐播放器。
其他可能宣布的消息：与一家手机公司合作；使用闪存，而非硬盘的iPod，价格相对便宜一些；一款无显示器的Mac电脑，这是出现在一个与苹果电脑相关的流言网站上的一种猜测，苹果电脑已在起诉该网站涉嫌披露商业秘密；甚至可能是某种家用媒体设备。
问题三：来自东方的猛兽
在上周四下午的新闻发布会上，三星电子美国子公司负责策略营销和新媒体的高级副总裁彼得?维得发德(Peter Weedfald)宣布，公司计划2005年在研发方面支出75亿美元，较去年的30亿美元增加一倍多。
2007年前9个月，三星电子的收入为410亿美元，比2003年全年的345亿美元还高。今年，维得发德表示，公司的销售额增长应高于CEA预计的11%这一全行业增幅。一度沉睡的这个韩国巨人已悄悄夺取了索尼作为亚洲最富活力的消费者电子制造商的地位。
