India's Economic Path
As India's energy needs grow in tandem with its rapidly expanding economy, several small discoveries offer hope that the gap between the country's thirst for oil and its ability to produce it can be narrowed -- in part -- by more finds beneath its home soil and seas.
Energy experts and international oil majors long have believed that India held little promise of substantial energy reserves. But smaller companies, and an Indian government now intent on finding supplies wherever possible, are beginning to think the country hasn't exhausted its exploration possibilities.
"The energy situation for India is quite grim," said Brahma Chellaney of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. "It is crucial for us to import more oil, or find it within our own borders."
The International Energy Agency in Paris forecasts oil demand in South Asia will grow by 3.3% a year between 2000 and 2030, the highest of any region in the world. The agency predicts India will depend on imports for 94% of its oil by 2030. That would put it in direct competition for imports with China, which the IEA expects to be importing 82% of its oil by then.
That is why India's long-term economic health may hinge not only on its gleaming high-technology hubs, but also on places like this sun-baked scattering of mud huts in the Rajasthan desert.
It is here that Cairn Energy PLC, an independent Scottish energy concern, has found oil -- including one of the world's 10-biggest strikes this year. India imports 70% of the crude oil it needs to power its booming economy, up from just 30% two decades ago, so Cairn's five discoveries in Rajasthan this year, and its more-aggressive exploration elsewhere in India, are welcome developments to New Delhi.
Cairn's biggest find, called Mangala, holds about one billion barrels of oil, according to an audit by DeGolyer & MacNaughton, an oil-reserves specialist in Dallas. As much as one-third of that could be recoverable when production starts in late 2007, a respectable recovery rate by industry standards. And even though drilling in an area close to the Mangala field has recently produced disappointing results, Cairn still believes that four subsequent discoveries in the same concession could lift the total amount of oil in its Rajasthan fields to two billion barrels.
That is small by international standards, but big for India. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil reservoir, has 259 billion barrels of proved reserves, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, compared with India's 5.4 billion barrels.
Mike Watts, Cairn's exploration director, says India contains good hydrocarbon deposits that have been "missed or written off by the majors." In 2002, Cairn bought out its then-partner in Mangala, Royal Dutch Shell Group, which wasn't interested in drilling more wells. A Shell spokesman declined to comment.
Some experts say India's geology of subterranean layers with plenty of fault lines formed when what is now India collided with continental Asia millions of years ago, should contain oil and gas. "These are lovely structures for finding hydrocarbons," says Mr. Watts.
"Cairn has broken the jinx that India contains no hydrocarbons," said V. Raguraman, a senior energy adviser at the Confederation of Indian Industry in New Delhi. "More than 80% of India's hydrocarbon sedimentary basin is still not explored -- that's a lot of room to operate."
It would take many more Mangalas to make a dent in India's dependence on foreign oil. And India has seen only two big oil finds -- including Mangala -- since its biggest-producing field, Bombay High, was discovered in 1974. But New Delhi is eager to make any cuts it can in the country's oil-import bill.
India's domestic oil output has started to plateau at about 33 million metric tons a year, compared with consumption of 108 million metric tons. In the year ended March 31, oil imports cost India $20.3 billion, up 15% from a year earlier; this year the oil bill is expected to reach $25 billion because of higher prices.
A rapid proliferation of cars and motorcycles purchased by India's growing middle class accounts for much of the increased consumption. "We expect the oil deficit to widen, and the rise of the middle class will be the driving factor," says Dagmar Graczyk, an officer at the IEA's South Asia desk.
Without more big oil finds at home or substantial moves to alternative energy sources, say industry experts, India will be at the mercy of oil shocks and be forced to spend increasingly large chunks of its national wealth to keep its economy running.
To improve the odds for sizable discoveries, New Delhi has allocated almost 100 blocks of territory to Indian and foreign drillers since the late 1990s under a new exploration-licensing policy.
The effort is beginning to pay off. In 2002, for example, Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd., in partnership with Canada's Niko Resources Ltd., discovered a deposit of 14 trillion cubic feet of gas off India's coast -- one of the biggest finds in the world that year.
That discovery and Cairn's subsequent successes prompted calls for more acreage to be opened up for exploration by nongovernment companies, which are considered to be more efficient explorers than India's state-owned utilities. Other smaller foreign oil companies exploring or producing in India include Premier Oil PLC, Tullow Oil PLC and Hardy Oil & Gas PLC.
New Delhi would like to lure more foreign bidders, who are seen as more aggressive and better equipped with the latest drilling technology, when it holds the next round of bidding for exploration blocks early next year. But Madhu Nainan, editor of Petrowatch, an online newsletter about the Indian energy sector, predicts that isn't likely since the quality of the blocks has declined since the first round of bidding in 1999. "The kinds of discoveries we see in India aren't really big," he says. "That's why smaller oil companies are interested in India."
R.K. Batra, a visiting fellow at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, believes foreign oil majors would take an interest in India only if they are allowed to set up integrated operations from exploration to marketing, as they do elsewhere in the world. "But they can't do that in India because we have excess refining capacity, and the marketing companies are very well entrenched," he says.
Others argue that regulatory barriers, not lack of oil, are deterring foreign companies. "We must be bolder in order to find more oil equity within India. We need an open-acreage policy," says the Confederation of Indian Industry's Mr. Raguraman, adding that open acreage would allow entire blocks to be opened up quickly, rather than in phases, and prevent India's state oil concerns from "cherry-picking" the best leases.
"Cairn has done good business," says Mr. Raguraman. "There have been big gas finds. People aren't seeing the whole picture, which is really quite positive."
印度的经济成功可能取决于油气发现
随著印度经济的迅速增长，该国的能源需求也在增加，几项规模不大但却值得关注的能源发现给印度带来了一丝希望，使其有望缩小对石油的渴求与国内石油生产能力之间的差距，但前提是印度还需在自己的领土和领海内发现更多石油。
能源专家和国际石油巨头们一直认为，在印度找到可观能源储量的希望不大。但一些小型的能源公司以及正竭力在四处搜寻能源供应的印度政府却认为，该国的能源供应潜力尚未被充分揭示出来。
新德里政策研究中心(Center for Policy Research)的布拉马?切拉尼(Brahma Chellaney)说，印度的能源形势非常严峻，对印度来说，重要的是能进口到更多石油，或是在国内发现石油。
国际能源署(IEA)预测，在2000年至2030年期间，南亚的石油需求每年将增长3.3%，增幅是世界各个地区中最高的。该机构还预测，到2030年时，印度94%的石油需求将依赖进口。这将使印度在石油进口方面与中国展开直接竞争，IEA预计届时中国82%的石油需求也将依赖进口。
因此，印度经济的长期繁荣可能不仅取决于其几处光彩夺目的高科技中心，也取决于拉贾斯坦沙漠中几处不毛之地那类地方。
正是在那里，苏格兰的独立能源公司Cairn Energy PLC发现了石油，其中一块油田还跻身于今年世界的10大发现之列。由于印度经济的迅速发展，该国目前所需石油的70%都依赖进口，而20年前的这一比例为30%，因而对印度政府来说，Cairn今年在拉贾斯坦的5处发现以及它在印度其他地方更加雄心勃勃的石油勘探都是值得欢迎的。
据达拉斯一家名为DeGolyer & MacNaughton的石油储量专业评估公司称，Cairn的最大发现位于一处被称做Mangala的区块，该油田的石油储量约有10亿桶。该油田将于2007年年末开采，可采储量约为总储量的三分之一，按行业标准衡量这一比例是相当可观的。即使最近在Mangala油田附近地区进行的钻探未取得理想结果，Cairn公司仍然相信，在一块1,858平方公里的凹陷内发现了5块油田一事足以表明，拉贾斯坦的石油储量有可能达到20亿桶。
这一储量对印度来说可谓不菲，但按国际标准衡量却不足为奇。据美国能源部(Department of Energy)称，世界石油储量最大的沙特阿拉伯拥有2,590亿桶的探明石油储量，而印度只有54亿桶。
Cairn公司的勘探负责人迈克?瓦特斯(Mike Watts)说，印度拥有良好的烃沉积构造，但却被大型石油公司忽视了。2002年，Cairn公司从当时与其合作勘探Mangala区块的皇家壳牌石油公司(Royal Dutch Shell Group)手中买断了该区块的全部勘探权益，后者当时对在这里继续钻井失去了兴趣。壳牌石油公司的发言人拒绝对此置评。
一些专家称，从印度的地质情况看，这里应能发现石油，因为印度的地层中有大量断层线，它们是数百万年前印度板块与亚洲大陆板块相碰撞时形成的。瓦特斯说，这些断层线是寻找烃类物质的理想所在。
印度工业联合会(Confederation of Indian Industry)的资深能源顾问拉格拉曼(V. Raguraman)说，Cairn公司打破了印度找不到油气资源的固有论调，印度80%以上的烃沉积盆地还未被勘探过，印度油气储量的增长空间还很大。
不过，要想改变印度对进口石油的依赖，还需有大量Mangalas那样的油田被发现才行。而自印度开采量最大的油田Bombay High于1974年被发现以来，包括Mangala油田在内，该国有一定规模的油气发现只有两次。但对印度政府来说，能减少该国对进口石油依赖的任何举措它都愿意尝试。
印度的国内石油产量已开始稳定在每年3,300万吨的水平，而该国的石油年消费量却有1.08亿□。在截至今年3月31日的财政年度内，印度为进口石油花费了203亿美元，较上一年增长了15%；受油价上扬影响，该国本财年的石油进口花费将达到250亿美元。
导致印度石油消费增加的主要原因是，该国中产阶级人口的增长导致汽车和摩托车的购买量迅速增加。IEA南亚部的格瑞斯茨克(Dagmar Graczyk)说，预计印度的石油进口量还将增长，该国中产阶级的增加是主要原因。
产业专家们说，除非印度能在国内发现大量石油，或是能在使用替代能源方面取得实质性进展，否则印度将很容易受到石油危机的冲击，为了保持经济的增长，它将不得不把越来越多的国民财富用于进口石油。
为了提高发现大油田的几率，从上世纪九十年代末开始，根据一项新制订的勘探牌照政策，印度政府已将境内将近100处区块交给印度和外国公司去勘探石油。
这一努力已开始收效。以2002年为例，印度的企业巨头信心工业有限公司(Reliance Industries Ltd.)就与加拿大企业Niko Resources Ltd.合作，在印度近海发现了14万亿立方英尺的天然气储量，这是当年世界最大的油气发现之一。
受这次发现以及Cairn公司随后在石油勘探方面取得的成功推动，人们开始呼吁印度政府将更多区域开放给非国营公司去勘探，因为这些公司据信在油气勘探方面比印度的国营公用事业公司更有效率。其他在印度从事油气勘探和生产的外国中小公司还包括Premier Oil PLC、Tullow Oil PLC和Hardy Oil & Gas PLC。
当印度政府明年初举行下一轮油气勘探招标时，它希望吸引更多的外国公司来竞标，因为这些公司被认为更有进取精神，它们不仅具备最新的勘探技术，而且所使用的设备也较好。但网上通讯《石油观察》(Petrowatch)的编辑奈南(Madhu Nainan)却认为，印度政府未必能够如愿，因为自1999年印度举行第一轮油气勘探招标以来，那些待勘探区块的质量已经下降了。他说，印度有望获得重大油气发现的区块并不多，这也是为什么只有中小型石油公司才对印度感兴趣。
新德里能源与资源研究所(Energy and Resources Institute)的访问学者巴特拉(Batra)说，只有像其他国家那样，允许外国大型石油公司在印度开展从石油勘探到营销的一体化经营，这些公司才会对涉足印度市场感兴趣。但巴特拉认为，印度政府不会允许它们这样做，因为印度本国的炼油能力已经过剩，而本国的石油营销公司又受到了十分周到的保护。
还有人声称，阻止外国石油公司进入印度的是国内的监管壁垒，而非印度缺乏石油资源。印度工业联合会的拉格拉曼说，要想在印度发现更多石油，印度政府必须更加大胆。他还说，将整个地区都开放给外国公司去进行石油勘探将导致所有勘探区块都迅速对外开放，而不必再一步步地分阶段开放，也可以防止印度的国营石油公司坐享其成，将质量最好的区块收入囊中。
拉格拉曼说，Cairn公司干得不错，印度不断有大型天然气田被发现，从总体上看，印度的能源前景形势真的十分良好。
