A Big Buy for Yahoo Isn't Likely
ahoo Inc. has a chief executive with a penchant for deal making, a robust $52 billion market capitalization and $3 billion in cash. Sounds like a recipe for a big acquisition -- but don't expect one soon.
Why? There are few big companies for Yahoo to buy. Instead, analysts and investors expect Yahoo to continue acquiring smaller companies for talent and technology to complement its existing businesses.
The Sunnyvale, Calif., company, whose services range from Web searching to online dating, would like to expand outside the U.S., where it trails other big U.S. Internet companies. In the U.S., there are few Web sites that Yahoo would consider acquiring that would significantly expand its already strong traffic or influence.
Yahoo Chairman and Chief Executive Terry Semel likes to say that the company's growth strategy is to "build, buy and partner." Since Mr. Semel's arrival three years ago, however, buying has been at the forefront. The company acquired more than a dozen companies over the past two years, spending $2 billion for Web-search companies last year alone. This year, it purchased European shopping-comparison site Kelkoo for �475 million ($633 million) and Musicmatch Inc.'s digital-music software and online music store for $160 million. It is using the smaller acquisitions of Oddpost Inc. and Stata Labs to fill out its e-mail and search offerings.
Investors have rewarded the company with a rich valuation, increasing Yahoo's incentive to use shares as an acquisition currency. Yahoo shares have almost doubled from their 52-week low, to $38.26, up 17 cents in 4 p.m. Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading yesterday, and are trading at a hefty 76 times next year's expected earnings, as measured by analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call. Yahoo's executives have profited handsomely, selling roughly 13 million shares this year, including about $300 million worth by Mr. Semel.
Yahoo executives say international expansion is a top priority and have done some deal making abroad this year. The company generated only about 28% of its third-quarter revenue outside the U.S., compared with 35% at Google Inc. and 42% at eBay Inc.
One likely target for Yahoo is China, the second-largest market of Internet users, after the U.S. In January, Yahoo acquired 3721 Network Software Co., which makes software for Chinese-language Internet searches, for about $50 million, with an additional $70 million in contingent payments.
But its attempts at a bigger deal in China have been stymied. Yahoo has had designs on China-based Web portal Sina Corp., which boasts a market capitalization of $1.7 billion on the Nasdaq Stock Market, according to people familiar with the matter. The Chinese press has been buzzing about an imminent Yahoo-Sina linkup; the two companies already have a joint venture for Chinese online auctions. "We're expecting it," says Safa Rashtchy, an analyst at Piper Jaffray & Co. who has an "outperform" rating on Yahoo's stock.
But there is a hitch before the companies can get hitched: Chinese government reluctance to allow foreign control over domestic information outlets. Officially, the government restricts foreigners to owning 50% of Internet content-provider businesses. In a research report this year, Morgan Stanley analysts said no foreigners had won approval for a stake that large. A Yahoo spokeswoman declined to comment on any specific deal-making activity, saying the company is always evaluating acquisition opportunities. A Sina spokeswoman declined to comment.
In the U.S., Yahoo has signaled interest in distributing more exclusive online content, such as its Web site tie-in for the television series "The Apprentice." The company isn't showing its hand, but the recent hire of Lloyd Braun, former chairman of Walt Disney Co.'s ABC Entertainment Television Group, has prompted speculation that Yahoo wants exclusive access to Hollywood studios' video and music output.
Yahoo executives have said they aren't interested in producing their own TV shows or movies. Some analysts speculate that Yahoo could be tempted by DVD movie-rental firm Netflix Inc. or CinemaNow Inc., which operates a Web site that delivers digital movies to personal computers. A Netflix spokeswoman declined to comment. A spokeswoman for CinemaNow said she wasn't immediately able to comment.
Yahoo discussed acquiring portions of Time Warner Inc.'s America Online properties this year, though any talks were never advanced, say people familiar with the matter. An AOL spokesman declined to comment. But few other potential deals would significantly boost Yahoo's global base of 157 million active registered users or its projected $2.5 billion in revenue this year, excluding some commissions to marketing partners.
It could all be posturing, but Yahoo executives have suggested that they are reconciled to a new phase of smaller acquisitions. Speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference last month, Chief Financial Officer Susan Decker said the company had shifted from acquiring in order to move into new areas, such as Web search and music, to buying companies to boost Yahoo's technology or expertise in areas where it already competes. Executives are more focused on deals that bring large numbers of new users, as opposed to big chunks of revenue, according to one person familiar with their thinking. Yahoo believes it could boost revenue by exposing these new users to its advertising.
Yahoo recently sought to buy a portion of closely held X1 Technologies Inc., which makes software for searching the hard drives of computers, according to Bill Gross, X1 founder and chairman and CEO of Internet incubator Idealab. But Mr. Gross says the companies had trouble deciding how to divide X1. Instead, Yahoo opted to license X1's technology for its forthcoming desktop-search program.
Some Yahoo watchers expect the company to bolster some of its domestic U.S. business areas. Scott Kessler , an analyst at Standard & Poor's in New York, speculates that Yahoo could snatch up videogame-related technology or content. Yahoo already is one of the most popular sites for free Web-based videogames. Mr. Kessler, who rates Yahoo a "buy," believes its potential targets include game developers or related content.
Other possible areas include services that allow users to create Web logs (companies like Six Apart Ltd. of San Mateo, Calif.) and digital photo services and software. But "you're talking about small potatoes," says Mr. Kessler. A Six Apart spokeswoman said she wasn't immediately able to comment.
Mr. Kessler says that online publisher CNET Networks Inc. could attract Yahoo's attention because of its GameSpot site, which offers videogame reviews and related content and yesterday announced a deal to share content with Yahoo. CNET Chairman and CEO Shelby Bonnie declined to comment on any possible discussions with Yahoo.
雅虎料无意作大手笔收购
人们都知道雅虎有一位喜爱做大生意的首席执行长，而且，这家市值高达520亿美元的公司手里还握有30亿美元现金。听起来，作大手笔收购的条件都有了...但是，你别指望很快能听到这方面的消息。
君谓何出此言？嗨，实在没有什么像样的大公司值得雅虎收购。关注雅虎的分析师和投资者都认为，雅虎会继续收购一些较小规模的公司，从而为其现有业务补充人才和技术力量。
这家提供从网页搜索到网上约会等各种服务的公司可能会到海外实施扩张，该公司海外业务的比重不及美国其他大型互联网企业。不过在国内，几乎没有哪家网站会让雅虎考虑收购过来，以进一步增加其已经很高的网络流量和市场影响力。
雅虎董事长兼首席执行长塞缪尔(Terry Semel)总喜欢说，雅虎的增长战略是“建设、收购、合作”。不过自从塞缪尔三年前加盟公司以来，雅虎动用最多的一项策略还是收购。在过去两年时间里，雅虎收购了十多家公司，仅在去年就在收购网络搜索公司上面投入了20亿美元。今年，它先后斥资4.75亿欧元和1.6亿美元将欧洲商品竞拍网站Kelkoo及Musicmatch Inc.旗下的数码音乐软件和网上音乐商店收入囊中。为填补其在电子邮件和搜索结果方面的不足，雅虎还收购了规模较小的Oddpost Inc.和Stata Labs。
投资者对雅虎的动作作出了积极回应，雅虎股票的本益比显著上升，这也让雅虎对用自己的股票作资本进行收购产生了浓厚兴趣。周二，雅虎股价较其52周低点已增加了近一倍，达到38.26美元，其基于明年每股收益预期的本益比已高达76倍。雅虎管理人士个个都腰包鼓鼓，今年他们合记共卖掉了1,300万股股票，其中塞缪尔自己就卖掉了价值3亿美元的股票。
雅虎管理层表示，国际扩张是优先考虑，今年已在国外达成了一些收购。第三季度，雅虎仅有28%的收入来自美国以外地区，相比之下Google Inc.和eBay Inc. 分别达到了35%和42%。
中国可能是雅虎的一个目的地，这个国家的互联网用户人数仅次于美国，居全球第二。去年年底，雅虎以1.2亿美元收购了中文网络搜索软件开发公司3721网络软件有限公司(3721 Network Software Co.)。
但另一项更大规模的收购努力似乎不那么顺利。据知情人士称，雅虎一直觊觎市值17亿美元、在那斯达克上市的中国门户网站新浪网(Sina Corp., H.SNA)。中国媒体也在热炒雅虎-新浪可能不久将联姻的消息；两家公司早已在中国网上拍卖方面进行了联合投资。“我们正在期待正式消息，”Piper Jaffray & Co.的分析师拉什奇(Safa Rashtchy)表示。他对雅虎股票的评级是强于大盘。
但两家公司联姻前不得不正视一个现实：中国政府不愿让外资控制国内的信息发布渠道。官方规定外资在互联网内容提供商中的持股比例不得超过50%。在今年的一份研究报告中，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析师们指出，迄今尚未有外资在这类企业中的持股比例超过50%的先例。雅虎发言人拒绝就任何具体的收购交易置评，她表示，公司一直在对各种收购机会进行评估。新浪发言人拒绝置评。
在美国，雅虎已表示有意发布更为独家性的网上内容，比如网络版的电视连续剧《学徒》(The Apprentice)。虽然尚未公布具体计划，但雅虎最近聘用ABC Entertainment Television Group的前董事长布劳恩(Lloyd Braun)一事还是不由令人猜测，雅虎可能希望获得好莱坞众多制片厂生产的电影和音乐作品的独家网上发布权。
雅虎管理层已表示无意制作自己的电视节目或电影。一些分析师猜测雅虎可能有意于DVD电影租赁公司Netflix Inc.或数字电影网站CinemaNow Inc.。Netflix的发言人拒绝置评，CinemaNow的发言人表示不能立即置评。
据知情人士称，今年雅虎和时代华纳公司(Time Warner Inc)就收购部分美国在线(America Online)的资产进行了谈判，目前谈判尚未进入深入阶段。美国在线的发言人拒绝置评。但其他一些可能达成的交易将显著扩大雅虎全球1.57亿有效注册用户的基础，也能明显提升其今年预计的25亿美元收入（不包括提供给营销合作伙伴的佣金）。
但这些也可能都只是水中之月，因为雅虎管理层表示该公司将转向收购中小规模企业。上个月在摩根士丹利的会议上，雅虎首席财务长戴克(Susan Decker)表示，该公司的收购将不再重点围绕网络搜索和音乐等新的业务领域，公司将更看重能提升雅虎在原有行业中的技术或优势的收购。据知情人士称，雅虎管理层将更关注能带来大量新用户的收购，而不是能大幅增加收入的收购目标。雅虎相信通过向这些新用户发布广告，也可以增加收入。
雅虎最近还曾打算收购私人持股企业X1 Technologies Inc.的部分股权，这是X1的创始人兼董事长格罗斯(Bill Gross)向外界透露的；X1制造和出售电脑硬盘搜寻软件。但两家公司在如何分割X1的问题上存在分歧。最后，雅虎决定只为其即将推出的桌面搜索软件购买X1的技术许可。
也有一些观察人士认为，雅虎将壮大某些国内业务。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)驻纽约的分析师凯斯勒(Scott Kessler)猜测雅虎可能会收购视频游戏相关技术或内容。雅虎早已是最热门的免费网络游戏网站之一。凯斯勒将雅虎的评级定为买进，认为该公司的潜在目标包括游戏开发公司或相关内容。
其他可能的收购目标包括允许用户建立网络日志、存储数码照片等的服务网站，如加州的Six Apart Ltd.等。Six Apart的发言人表示，她不能立即置评。
凯斯勒称，CNET Networks Inc.的GameSpot网站可能会吸引雅虎的注意力。GameSpot提供视频游戏评论以及相关内容，周二刚刚宣布与雅虎达成内容共享协议。CNET的董事长兼首席执行长博尼(Shelby Bonnie)拒绝评论与雅虎任何可能的谈判。
