For U.S., a Delicate Trade-Off
Some of the tough calls the Bush administration faces next year, from confronting North Korea to overhauling the tax code and Social Security, are well known. One of its more-obscure but no-less-important decisions involves something more basic: imports of cotton pants and underwear.
Early next year, the administration must rule on requests from U.S. textile companies to limit imports of a number of Chinese-made products, also including knit shirts, sheets and cotton yarn. The items may sound mundane, but hanging in the balance is the fate of the $76 billion-a-year U.S. garment trade and the future of the embattled U.S. textile industry -- as well as a host of prickly disputes with China, including the U.S. desire to see Beijing loosen its currency controls.
A STITCH IN TIME
Take an interactive look at what the expiry of textile quotas means for China and the U.S.
"How the administration goes on this will affect much of its trade agenda for the next year and beyond," says Daniel Ikenson , a trade expert at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington. "Angering China would have the most detrimental impact of all."
U.S. officials involved in the process won't hint at their leanings, but they already have raised a ruckus simply by agreeing to investigate the domestic industry's latest requests for protection.
A decision to slap new limits on Chinese imports would be sure to stir anger within the Chinese government and provoke howls of protest from big U.S. retailers ranging from J.C. Penney Co. to Liz Claiborne Inc. Both see China as their supplier of choice starting next year, after an international system that has controlled access to the U.S. apparel market for decades comes to an end.
But turning down the requests for protection would ricochet loudly in big textile states such as North and South Carolina, and could weaken further Congress's already slim support for a number of pending free-trade pacts -- above all the Central American Free Trade Agreement, expected to go to a vote early next year.
U.S. textile companies won the right to request temporary relief from Chinese imports through 2008 as part of China's entry into the World Trade Organization three years ago. The industry late last year used the provision for the first time when it convinced the Bush administration to cap imports of Chinese bras, robes and knit fabrics. Chinese exports of all three items surged in 2002 after they were removed from the 30-year-old global quota system.
The latest batch of requests, filed last month, is far different because all the goods up for grabs still are under the global limits, which have severely restrained China's access to the U.S. market. China supplied less than 3% of the $8.65 billion of cotton pants the U.S. had imported this year through September, for instance. In several categories in which U.S. companies seek protection, including cotton and wool pants, imports from China have shrunk this year.
But the U.S. industry is trying to convince the administration to act on the mere threat of a surge once global quotas are lifted. "It makes no sense to wait until after the damage is done. By then, it would be too late," says James Schollaert, director of policy outreach at the American Trade Action Coalition, one of the main groups behind the petitions.
Big U.S. importers and retailers still are reeling from the administration's decision to take on these cases in the first place. China's WTO accession agreement, they argue, never was meant to allow import caps on the mere theory of a market disruption.
If the U.S. industry wins, it will gain the added bonus of having a growth cap put on Chinese imports that already are very low in comparison with other countries. The rules allow the U.S. to limit import growth to 7.5% over the previous year in any given category. Bob Zane, director of global sourcing at Liz Claiborne, says that if the administration moves ahead with new quotas based on this year's volumes, "it's entirely possible that all of China's allotment will be used up by March."
James Leonard, head of textile policy at the U.S. Commerce Department, told a group of retailers and importers last week that the government would weigh the petitions on their own merits. Agreeing to consider the cases, he said, doesn't automatically mean the administration will take the safeguard action and impose the quota.
The decision, handled by a special interagency panel, is sure to be fraught with politics. The departments of Commerce, Treasury, State and Labor, along with the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, each get one vote. Most observers believe Commerce and Labor will support approving the petitions, while Treasury will oppose them. How the trade office and the State Department come down is more complicated.
Poorer countries around the world support the caps, fearing that China will elbow them out of the huge U.S. market. The State Department wants to avoid global disruption in the garment trade without infuriating China, especially now, when the U.S. wants Beijing to free its currency and crack down on rampant theft of U.S. intellectual property.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick also might need to win votes in Congress to get the Central American trade pact approved, and that could mean placating trade skeptics with a tough move against China.
For the U.S. industry, the more political the spat becomes, the better. "Our goal is to have Karl Rove make the decision," says Mr. Schollaert, referring to Mr. Bush's top political adviser. "We feel that if it goes that high, it will go our way."
The U.S. industry has been savvy so far in using the political calendar to its advantage. Sock producers requested -- and won -- strict limits on imported Chinese socks just before the presidential election earlier this month. With similar timing, the industry got the administration to accept its quota petition on Chinese cotton pants just five days before the election.
With the next national election two years away, the U.S. industry may have lost some leverage. Still, it has scored a partial victory already: U.S. importers have diverted some orders away from China to avoid the risk of new quotas.
Whatever happens, though, the U.S. industry knows it is simply buying time. "We just want to be around for another year to figure out what to do then," says Mr. Schollaert.
美国在中国服装问题上面临难题
在布什(George W. Bush)政府明年将面临的各项严峻挑战中，诸如与朝鲜的关系和改革税收及社会保障制度等已是众所周知，不过还有一些虽不太惹人注目、但重要性毫不逊色的问题──比如有关棉质裤和内衣进口问题等，它们往往涉及更基础的东西。
明年初，美国政府必须就美国纺织品企业提出限制进口多项中国产品的请求作出决定，这些产品中还包括针织衫、床单和棉纱等。这些商品听来很平常，但它事关规模达每年760亿美元的美国服装贸易市场的命运和处于困境的美国纺织行业的未来，还牵涉中美双方的许多棘手的纠纷，比如美方要求中国放松外汇管制等问题。
华盛顿研究机构Cato Institute的贸易专家艾肯森(Daniel Ikenson)说，政府在这方面的决策将对美国明年及今后的贸易状况产生深远影响。在所有可能的方案中，激怒中国的方案将产生危害最大的后果。
参与处理上述事务的美国官员对这些问题尚未表露出任何倾向，但他们已同意对国内产业界最新提出的这项保护申请展开调查，仅此做法已引发了一片骚动。
如果决定对中国进口产品实行新的限制，那势必会惹恼中国政府，并在美国各类大型零售商中间──从J.C.Penney Co.到Liz Claiborne Inc.──激起抗议的浪潮。在这些零售商看来，随著控制美国纺织品进口市场的已实行数十年之久的国际纺织品进口配额制度即将走向终结，从明年年初开始，中国商品将成为它们的选择之一。
但是，如果拒绝对纺织行业提供保护，那么南、北卡罗来纳两州及其他纺织行业占据重要地位的各州将作出强烈反应，而且，国会许多尚待通过的自由贸易提案目前获得的已很微弱的支持也将难保。在这些提案中最重要的中美洲自由贸易协定，定于明年初进行投票表决。
根据三年前中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)时的协定，在2008年之前，美国纺织企业有权针对中国进口纺织品请求实行暂时性保护措施。去年底，美国纺织界首次引用该条款，要求布什政府限制从中国进口胸衣、晨浴衣和针织布。2002年，随著这几类产品从已实行了30年的全球纺织品配额体系中被剔除，中国这几类产品的出口量猛增。
而美国纺织企业上个月提出的这项最新请求与以前大不相同，因为所涉及的商品种类仍在全球配额体系的清单上，这一制度一直严重限制著中国进入美国市场。今年1-9月份，美国棉质裤进口总额高达86.5亿美元，而其中来自中国的产品还不足3%。在美国企业要求保护的几类纺织品中（包括棉质和毛质裤类），来自中国的进口今年也在收缩。
全球配额制度取消后进口额骤然飞涨的局面目前还仅仅是一种可能性，但美国纺织业已在试图说服政府针对这种威胁采取行动。参与提出保护申请的主要团体之一American Trade Action Coalition的政策推展部门主任施莱特(James Schollaert)说，等到损害发生了才采取行动就没有意义了，在那之前行动还不算太晚。
美国大型进口商和零售商对政府决定受理这些请求仍感到震惊。他们认为，中国加入WTO时签署的协议并没有规定，可以市场受到干扰为由限制从中国进口。
如果美国纺织业胜了，他们将获得意外的收获，中国输美纺织品的增长将受到限制，而中国目前的增幅与其他国家相比已经偏低。世贸规则允许美国在达到特定年限前，对任何类别的商品均可将进口增幅限制在7.5%以下。Liz Claiborne全球采购主管赞恩(Bob Zane)说，如果政府根据今年的进口量确定明年的配额，那么完全有可能出现中国的指标在明年3月份前就被全部用光的情形。
美国商务部(U.S. Commerce Department)纺织业政策部门负责人莱昂纳德(James Leonard)上周对一个零售商和进口商团体表示，政府将根据自己的判断考虑纺织业的申请。他说，同意考虑申请并不意味著政府最后就会采取保护行动，实行配额。
将由一个特别协调小组负责作出的决定无疑将充满政治因素。美国商务部、财政部、国务院、劳工部及美国贸易代表办公室在该小组中都各有一个投票权。大多数观察家相信，商务部和劳工部会支持批准纺织业的请求，而财政部会提出反对。国务院和贸易代表办公室会作何决定则比较复杂。
那些欠发达国家支持限制中国进口，因为它们担心中国会把他们挤出美国市场。国务院希望能在不得罪中国的情况下避免在服装贸易问题上出现全球性动荡，特别是在眼下，安抚中国尤为重要，因为美国正在争取让北京放松外汇管制、打击中国到处蔓延的侵害美国知识产权的行为。
美国贸易代表佐立克(Robert Zoellick)或许需要在国会赢得一些支持，以便有助于将来中美洲自由贸易协定的通过，而这可能意味著为安抚对自由贸易持反对意见的人士，他会投出不利于中国的一票。
对美国的产业界来说，争论的政治意味越大，对他们就越有利。施莱特说，他们的目标是争取最后让（布什的首席政治顾问）罗夫(Karl Rove)作决定。他们认为，如果问题最后被推到总统那里，那么就会如他们所愿。
美国产业界一直以来在利用政府气候达到自身目的方面非常有智慧。就在本月初的总统大选前夕，袜类生产商提出的限制从中国进口袜类的请求获得了批准。
同样，在离选举还有5天的时候，他们成功地让政府受理了他们提出的对中国棉质裤实行配额的申请。
下一次全国大选要等到两年之后了，产业界或许会丧失一些“时机”武器，不过，他们已经获得了局部胜利：为避免实行新配额带来的风险，美国进口商已经将部分订单转往中国以外地区。
不过，美国产业界深知，不论发生什么情况，他们至少争取到了时间。施莱特说，他们只希望能再有一年的回旋时间，来思考他们接下来该怎么做。
