China's Rules Challenge Car Makers
Some foreign auto makers, such as General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler AG, aren't ready to meet China's new fuel economy standards and may face high costs to upgrade fleets before the requirements are introduced in 2005, according to a report from a Washington-based environmental think tank.
The report, to be released today from the World Resources Institute, seeks to handicap how far along auto manufacturers are in meeting new fuel economy standards and what that means for multinationals slugging it out in China. Concern over steep oil prices and sullied city air has prompted Beijing to unveil environmental requirements for car makers that the WRI says are slightly tougher than those in the U.S. That has raised questions about whether the rules will add burdensome costs to companies, giving others a leg-up in what might be the world's largest auto market by 2020.
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Beijing is introducing the standards now to prompt changes in the industry later. The government wants foreign manufacturers to bring more advanced technologies to their ventures and to veer away from developing new versions of gas-guzzlers, such as sports-utility vehicles. The changes are pressing because China has been importing record amounts of crude, and it is poised to overtake the U.S. as the world's largest oil consumer in the next two decades.
In adjusting to China's fuel economy standards, GM's China fleet is facing the biggest hill to climb, the WRI report concludes. Only 42% of GM cars now meet 2005 standards; just 32% comply with a second phase to be introduced in 2008. Because of the large size of its fleet in China, the U.S. auto giant will likely "face the highest costs in the industry to comply," the WRI report said.
Other foreign car makers may need to increase spending as well, but the study didn't provide estimates of these costs.
Like GM, DaimlerChrysler also is behind in meeting China's 2005 requirements, the WRI report said. And while 68% of the Volkswagen AG fleet meets phase one, only 19% -- or about 130,000 vehicles -- meets the 2008 phase two, according to the WRI report.
The WRI said that the auto makers declined to provide their sales data. Instead, the think tank's researchers obtained estimates from a consulting company, Automotive Resources Asia. To judge the fuel efficiency of the different vehicles, researchers compared models sold in China with the same models sold overseas. They acknowledged there might be discrepancies based on sizes of engines, quality of parts and other differences.
"Our analysis is based on the best available data to understand how companies are positioned to meet the new Chinese regulations," said Amanda Sauer, author of the report. "The real point is to raise questions for people to ask these companies. Basically, 'What kind of cars are you producing in China?' "
The report's findings appear to conflict with statements from foreign auto makers playing down the impact of the new fuel standards. A GM China spokeswoman described as "groundless" the WRI assessment of its readiness. "All of GM's current products sold in China meet the phase I standards," said spokeswoman, Daphne Zheng. While GM is studying what impact the 2008 phase may have on the company's fleet, "[We] are confident that...we will be able to meet the government standards by that time," she said.
Likewise, a VW spokesman said the German car maker's products would be able to meet 2005 requirements, though he declined to comment on the 2008 phase as "time is needed" to observe developments in China. A DaimlerChrysler spokesman in China, Trevor Hale, said the company is "studying the new, proposed fuel efficiency regulations...evaluating how they might impact our plans."
Meanwhile, the WRI report singled out Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and PSA Peugeot-Citroen SA as the "best positioned" to meet the new standards; their fleets require little, if any, extra investment. Ford, for example, now meets 100% of the 2005 fuel economy standards and 72% for 2008, it said. A Ford spokesman in Beijing, Kenneth Hsu, confirmed the 2005 estimate. Mr. Hsu said the 2008 figure was too early to evaluate because "new products will be introduced," although he added: "I am confident it won't be changing for the worse."
China's new rules differ from U.S. requirements on fuel efficiency, and appear to set tougher targets. In the U.S. manufacturers are required to meet an average miles per gallon for a fleet of light trucks and cars. In China, the standards will require each vehicle, based on weight, to achieve a standard set for its class. For the first phase starting in July, those targets will range from 61 kilometers per gallon for the lightest vehicle to 31 kilometers a gallon for those weighing over 2,475 kilograms, according to the WRI. China won't regulate commercial vehicles and trucks and under these standards. The Chinese standards also mandate the largest improvements among heaviest vehicles. Only 4% of SUV's and minivans sold in China meet 2005 targets; yet 66% of the cars do, according to WRI.
Overall, the Chinese standards require a 5% increase in vehicle fuel efficiency by 2005 and 10% by 2008, slightly higher than U.S. goals for cars and light trucks.
But a big question is how strictly the Chinese standards, to be introduced next July, will be enforced. The report acknowledges that this uncertainty makes it difficult to evaluate the potential financial impact for auto makers. The new rules allow a one-year grace period for vehicles already being manufactured.
Similarly, it is unclear if the standards will be applied evenly among multinationals and Chinese car companies.
中国燃油新标准给汽车商带来新挑战
根据华盛顿某环保智囊机构的一份报告，通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)和戴姆勒克莱斯勒(DaimlerChrysler AG)等外国汽车生产商还没有做好迎接中国新节能标准的准备，恐怕在2005年新标准颁布实施前改进车型会导致成本增加。
这份报告定于周二由世界资源协会(World Resources Institute)发布，它将指出汽车生产商们在遵循新的节能标准时落后了多少，以及新标准对那些在中国重拳出击的跨国汽车生产商来说意味著什么。对高额油价和城市空气严重污染的担心促使中国政府制定了新的汽车环保标准。据世界资源协会称，这套标准要比美国的标准略为严格。这不禁让人想到，在2020年有望成为全球最大汽车市场的中国，新标准的实施是否会加重某些公司的成本负担，而却为另一些公司趁势发展创造机会。
中国政府目前正在推广这套新标准，以促使汽车行业相应做出调整。政府希望外国汽车生产商向国内合资企业引进更先进的技术，放弃不断推出高耗油新车型（比如运动型多用途车）的做法。中国一直在大量进口原油，未来20年内有望超过美国，成为全球最大的石油消费国。因此，进行调整也就变得日益紧迫了。
世界资源协会的报告称，要遵循中国新制定的节能标准，通用汽车中国生产业务面临的成本压力将会最大。通用汽车目前只有42%的汽车符合新标准，能符合2008年第二阶段标准的只有32%。报告称，鉴于通用汽车在中国推出的车型多种多样，这家美国汽车生产巨头可能会“面临全行业最高的标准实施成本”。
其他外国汽车生产商可能也需要为此增加开支，但报告没有给出具体估算数字。
报告还指出，和通用电气一样，戴姆勒克莱斯勒在这方面也比较落后。大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)虽然有68%的汽车符合2005年第一阶段标准的规定，但只有19%──大约13万辆──能符合2008年第二阶段标准。
报告还说汽车生产商们不愿透露销售数据。不过，协会的研究人员还是从谘询机构亚汽资源公司(Automotive Resources Asia)得到了估算数据。研究人员选取同时在中国境内外销售的车型，比较不同车辆的燃料效率。他们承认，由于引擎型号不同、零部件质量和其他差异，调查结果难免会有偏差。
“我们的分析是在最佳数据基础上得出的，为的是衡量汽车生产商在中国新标准面前准备得如何，”报告撰写人阿曼达．绍尔(Amanda Sauer)说，“分析的目的是鼓励人们对这些汽车生产商提出问题。根本问题就是，贵公司在中国生产哪种汽车？”
报告的结论似乎和众多外国汽车生产商的声明相抵触。它们在声明中淡化了新燃油标准的影响。通用汽车中国公司发言人用“毫无根据”来描述世界资源协会对该公司在新标准面前准备不足的评估。“通用汽车目前在中国销售的所有汽车都符合第一阶段新标准的要求，”发言人郑洁(Daphne Zheng)说。通用汽车正在研究2008年实施第二阶段标准会带来哪些影响，郑洁表示，“（我们）信心十足......届时公司将能够满足政府标准的要求。”
类似地，大众汽车发言人也表示，该公司汽车均能满足2005年新标准的要求，但他拒绝就2008年标准的实施前景发表评论，称观察中国的发展“需要时间”。戴姆勒克莱斯勒中国公司发言人特雷弗．黑尔(Trevor Hale)表示，公司“正在研究新提出的燃油效率限制条例......评估它们对公司发展计划可能产生的影响。”
此外，世界资源协会还点名指出，丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)、福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)和PSA标致雪铁龙(PSA Peugeot-Citroen SA)在满足新标准方面“做得最好”；这些公司的汽车就算需要更新，也只要投入很少资金。报告以福特汽车为例，称该公司目前所产汽车就全部符合2005年的燃油效率标准，72%能满足2008年的标准。福特汽车中国公司发言人许国祯(Kenneth Hsu)证实了报告对该公司满足2005年标准的估测，但表示现在谈论2008年的数字还为时尚早，因为“还会推出新产品”，但他同时表示，“我确信情况不会变得更坏。”
在燃油效率方面，中国的新标准与美国的不同，似乎更加严格。在美国，汽车生产商们只需满足轻型卡车和轿车的平均耗油量规定即可。但在中国，标准根据车辆重量而定，每个重量级别各有一套标准。根据世界资源协会的报告，从2005年7月开始执行的第一阶段标准中，最轻重量类别的汽车必须满足每加仑行驶61公里的标准，重量超过2.475吨的汽车则要满足每加仑行驶31公里的标准。商用车和卡车不在其列。中国的新标准还要求必须对重型车作出重大改进。世界资源协会称，目前在售的运动型多用途车和小型卡车只有4%能满足2005年标准，而轿车的满足率达到了66%。
总的来说，中国标准要求，到2005年汽车燃油效率须提高5%，到2008年须提高10%，比美国对轿车和轻型卡车的要求稍微严格一些。
但最大的问题是，对于明年7月即将颁布实施的这项新标准，它的执行力度有多大？报告中承认，这项不确定因素让他们很难评估汽车生产商将面临的潜在财务影响。根据规定，已经生产的汽车可以享受一年的宽限期。
此外，这项标准是否对跨国公司和国内公司一视同仁也尚属未知。
