Chinese Companies Won't Rush To List Abroad as Market Cools
Some of China's biggest companies, facing a skeptical market overseas, have made it clear they can afford to wait to sell their stock to foreigners.
A few months ago, China stocks were hot and the window of opportunity seemed wide. Behemoths in industries such as automobiles, steel and banking were sprucing up for stock listings that appeared on the horizon. Those listings are now fading from sight, and analysts are slashing estimates that China will triple the $7 billion its companies raised overseas in 2003. The reasons are partly linked to worries about China's economy and the transparency of its companies. At the same time, Chinese executives say they aren't inclined to rush to list overseas when they can generate plenty of cash at home.
"The stock market is just one way to raise capital. We can also get low-interest loans and issue bonds," says Miao Wei, head of Dongfeng Motor Corp., one of China's biggest auto makers. While some investment bankers pegged Dongfeng for a 2004 listing, Mr. Miao declined to discuss the timing. "Everybody knows the market is difficult to forecast," he says.
Likewise, sector giants Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and Bank of China, which some analysts projected as 2005 listings, say they may wait even longer. Baoshan, the largest steelmaker in China and part of the Shanghai Baosteel Group, "hasn't abandoned the plan" for an overseas stock listing, explains Chief Executive Ai Baojun. But there's "no urgent need" to pursue it, either, he says. Bank of China has "no pressing timetable," says an executive at the bank who is involved in the listing efforts.
Chinese officials have pushed the listings to help overhaul the nation's biggest companies. China's top bank regulator, Liu Mingkang, said last year that domestic and overseas stock listings are part of efforts to restructure a banking sector wracked by inefficiency and bad debts. In autos and steel, too, government-owned entities are trying to become global corporations -- a transformation crucial for competing overseas and creating jobs at home.
But after feverish buying of China stocks last year, market sentiment toward these issues has cooled. Although China Telecom Corp. sold $1.7 billion in new shares last week, the offer was smaller than some market participants had anticipated. Same for online gaming firm Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd., which pared the price and size of its offering before listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market earlier this month.
A barometer for China sentiment, the Hong Kong stock exchange's H-share index, comprised mostly of Chinese state-owned companies, has slid 21% by Friday's close from the start of the year. It had soared 152% in 2003 from a year earlier.
Fears that the Chinese economy is overheating, which may cause Beijing to adopt tougher measures that would damp growth and hurt companies, are weighing on stocks. So are global worries of a U.S. interest-rate rise and high oil prices.
There also are concerns that some Chinese companies may not be able to meet Western standards of disclosure. China Life Insurance Co. recently reported that it is the subject of an "informal inquiry" by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after it acknowledged that a government audit before its listing uncovered cases of policy fraud and accounting problems at its parent company. Hong Kong stock regulators say they are assisting the U.S. SEC inquiry.
While overseas markets may have turned bearish, China's booming economy has buoyed companies that make up a potential batch of new listings. What is more, a slower pace to the market provides time for the companies to complete massive restructurings, analysts say.
Dongfeng Motor, for example, has raked in billions through a handful of deals with foreign auto makers, including a $2 billion joint venture with Japan's Nissan Motor Co. in mid-2003. But if the ventures have eased cash worries, they have made progress toward an overseas stock listing more complex. Dongfeng must decide what parts of them are to be included in the listed company -- a process that must be negotiated with foreign partners, according to Mr. Miao, who leads the parent.
Baoshan also is pondering a listing that could involve more restructuring, analysts say. The company was carved from parent Shanghai Baosteel Group ahead of a domestic stock listing in 2000 that raised nearly $1 billion. Like the subsidiary, the parent holds businesses that are feeding steel to booming industries, from construction to petroleum to cars. Yet any transfer of business for a foreign stock offer would require picking through less-desirable assets, such as small steelmakers acquired through government-orchestrated deals that are now being hit by falling prices for low-end steel, according to Yong Zhiqiang of Haitong Securities in Shanghai. "There is a big gap between good assets and bad," Mr. Yong says.
For China's banks, the challenge is similar: how to create a sleek listing vehicle from an uneven enterprise. A recent wave of lending has boosted profits and reduced overall levels of bad loans. The Bank of China and China Construction Bank late last year split a $45 billion government bailout to lift capital reserves and to pave the way for foreign stock offerings. Yet neither stock listing appears imminent.
The Bank of China has struggled to improve management amid an assortment of problems. The Chinese government has detained and is investigating both a former bank president and the head of its Hong Kong operations for lending irregularities. China recently repatriated from the U.S. a Bank of China manager at a southern Guangdong branch accused of embezzling $480 million. Earlier this month, the bank pledged to further tighten controls after allowing an iron and steel company in eastern Jiangsu province to illegally obtain land and secure a $520 million credit line from one of its branches.
The Bank of China executive involved in restructuring says they continue to make progress toward a foreign stock offer, but adds: "We can't say for certain when that will be."
中国企业不急于海外上市
面对海外市场的种种猜疑，中国一些大型企业明确表示，它们可以为海外上市多等待一段时间。
几个月前，中国股票炙手可热，国内企业海外上市前景广阔。汽车、钢铁和银行业的超大型企业也纷纷摩拳擦掌，为去海外股票市场一展宏图作准备。但转眼间已是笑语不闻声渐消，许多企业已偃旗息鼓。那些预计中国企业今年海外融资额将较去年的70亿美元增长两倍的分析师纷纷下调预期。究其原因，主要是海外投资者对中国经济发展前景和中国企业治理透明度的担忧。与此同时，中国企业的管理人士表示，他们在国内也同样可以筹到大笔资金，因此并不急于扎堆到海外上市。
东风汽车有限公司(Dongfeng Motor Corp.)董事长苗圩说，股市只是融资渠道之一。此外，公司还可以通过低利率贷款和发行债券来融资。东风汽车是中国最大的汽车生产商之一，一些投资银行此前预计该公司将在2004年上市，但苗圩拒绝讨论上市时间问题。他说，人人都知道市场环境变幻莫测，难以预料。
宝山钢铁股份有限公司(Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., 简称：宝钢股份)和中国银行(Bank of China)也是一样。一些分析师预计，这两家公司会在2005年上市，但公司表示他们可以等待更长时间。宝钢股份是中国最大的钢铁生产商，是上海宝钢集团公司(Shanghai Baosteel Group)的一部分。宝钢股份总经理艾宝俊解释说，公司并未搁置海外上市计划，但也并不急于上市。中国银行一位参与上市工作的管理人士则表示，上市并非紧迫之事，公司也没有为此制定具体的时间表。
中国政府鼓励国内企业上市，以期促进国内超大型企业的治理整顿。中国银监会主席刘明康去年表示，中国银行业深受低效和坏帐之累，在国内外股市上市也是促进银行重组的方式之一。汽车和钢铁行业也是如此，国有企业尽力发展壮大为国际性公司，这对参与国际竞争以及在国内创造就业机会都极为关键。
但在去年疯狂追捧中国股票后，市场人气开始转淡。虽然上周中国电信股份有限公司(China Telecom Corp., 简称：中国电信)新股发行筹得17亿美元资金，但这低于某些市场人士的预期。网络游戏公司盛大网络发展有限公司(Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd.)本月初在那斯达克上市之前，也不得不下调发行价并削减了筹资规模。
以中国国有企业股票为主的香港H股指数今年截至上周五收盘累计下滑21%，但2003年同期增幅高达152%。
市场人士担心中国经济过热会促使政府采取更严厉的控制措施，这对遏制宏观经济和公司经营的增长。再加上美国加息的前景和油价高企等因素，股市气氛低迷。
也有不少人担心中国企业的信息披露程度恐怕难以达到西方标准。中国人寿(China Life Insurance Co.)最近承认，在去年赴海外上市之前，中国政府审计机构就发现其母公司存在保单欺诈和会计操作问题，该公司目前正在接受美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission, 简称SEC)的“非正式”调查。香港交易所称，他们正在协助SEC进行调查。
然而分析师认为，虽说海外股市人气转淡，中国经济的飞速发展却一直在为大量公司上市融资擂鼓助威。此外，上市步伐放慢也为这些公司赢得了完成大规模重组的时间。
以东风汽车为例，该公司就通过与外资汽车生产商的好几笔交易获得了数十亿元的投资，包括2003年年中与日本的日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co., 7201.TO)组建的20亿美元合资厂。但如果说这些合资企业缓解了它们的现金紧张状况，那么同时也使它们的海外上市过程变得更加复杂了。苗圩就说，东风汽车必须决定，哪些合资企业要纳入上市公司资产范围，而这些事宜都必须与不同合资企业的外资合作伙伴协商。
分析师称，宝钢股份的海外上市计划可能也要涉及多起重组。宝钢股份先是从母公司上海宝钢集团中剥离出来，然后在2000年于国内上市，筹资近10亿美元。母公司和子公司的业务范围类似，也向建筑、石化和汽车生产行业提供钢铁原料。海通证券(Haitong Securities)分析员雍志强说，为海外上市而进行的任何业务调整都免不了要剔出不受投资者欢迎的资产，比如一些应政府之命而收购的小型钢铁厂，他们生产的低端钢产品价格正在下滑。雍志强说，优质和劣质资产差别很大。
中国的银行业也面临类似挑战：如何将一家亏损的银行打扮成一个业务兴旺的上市融资工具。最近一轮信贷潮提振了各家银行的利润表现，同时降低了它们的坏帐水平。中国银行和中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)去年年底平分了450亿美元之巨的政府援助，旨在充实资本金，并为海外上市铺平道路。但现在看来，这两家银行近期都不会上市。
中国银行一直在诸多困扰中挣扎，尽力提高管理水平。中国银行前任行长和香港分行行长均因违规放贷被拘禁查处。最近，被控挪用4.8亿美元公款的中国银行广东省开平支行原行长被从美国遣返回国。本月初，中国银行某分行帮助江苏省某钢铁公司违规获得项目用地，并提供5.2亿美元信贷安排一事被查处后，中国银行承诺加大监管力度。
中国银行那位参与重组工作的管理人士表示，该行海外上市计划继续推进，但不能肯定何时实现上市
