Beijing's Effort To Slow Economy Leads Asian Talks
The official agenda for the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting here lists technical topics such as bank reform and building a regional bond market. But Topic A among the gathered policy makers and bankers is a more pressing issue: Can China slow its economy without rocking the rest of the region? (See related article.)
How fast and how far Chinese officials will go in reining in the growth of their overheating economy has become the central question for officials trying to manage their own economies.
"Not only Asian countries, but the whole world is watching China," Kwon Tae Shin, South Korea's deputy finance minister for international affairs, said in an interview Sunday.
China has been working hard at the meetings in this rainy island resort to assure neighbors that Beijing will successfully manage a gentle slowdown of its economy. For their part, representatives from the rest of Asia have been voicing their confidence in the ability of the Chinese leadership to get the job done, on the one hand, and playing down the significance of China to their economies on the other.
"The Chinese government is confident it has the ability to realize a soft landing for the economy and to realize also a smooth and sustained growth of the economy," Chinese Finance Minister Jin Renqing told reporters after a meeting Saturday of the so-called Asean Plus Three, made up of Association of Southeast Asian Nations' members and China, Japan and South Korea.
According to officials, the issue of China's efforts to slow its economy dominated the Asean Plus Three talks as well as separate sessions between the finance ministers of China, Japan and South Korea held on the sidelines of the three-day meeting that ends today.
"Chinese authorities are recognizing the issue very properly and are addressing the issue with strong leadership," Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said after meeting Chinese officials.
Lee Hun Jai, South Korea's deputy prime minister as well as its minister of finance and trade, said that "considering the large influence the Chinese economy has on the overall global economy, it is very important for the Chinese economy to successfully resolve concerns of economic overheating and successfully achieve a soft landing."
Mr. Lee said the meeting with his Chinese counterpart convinced him of Beijing's ability to slow growth without damaging the economy. "We shouldn't be worried about a hard landing of the Chinese economy," he told a news conference Sunday.
"However, if the Chinese economy doesn't maintain its growth, we have contingency plans in place," Mr. Lee said.
Like some other parts of East Asia, South Korea has increasingly come to rely on China as both a destination for its exports and as a low-cost manufacturing center for its companies. Last year, China surpassed the U.S. as South Korea's top export market.
Mr. Kwon, asked later about the contingency plans mentioned by his minister, explained that while China has become increasingly important to South Korea, the domestic Chinese economy isn't necessarily key to South Korea's success. He noted that 88% of South Korea's exports to China are in the form of capital goods, parts and raw materials that are made into finished products and re-exported. "Our exports to China are more dependent upon world economic recovery rather than Chinese domestic consumption," he said.
Other officials pointed out that while there may be worries about China's economy, faster growth in the rest of the world economy should be able to fill any gaps in demand.
A hard landing of the Chinese economy "would not be a catastrophic event," ADB chief economist Ifzal Ali told a news conference Sunday. With growth accelerating in the U.S. and Japan, as well as in Europe to a lesser extent, "the additional and alternative markets would cushion any kind of slowdown in China."
世界关注中国经济能否成功软著陆
尽管诸如银行业改革和创立地区性债券市场等技术性问题被列入本次亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)年会的日程，但对于与会的决策者和银行业官员来说，更为紧迫的问题则是：中国能否在不影响亚洲其他地区经济发展的情况下成功实现其经济软著陆？
对于那些力图搞好本国经济建设的亚洲其他经济体官员而言，最让他们关心的问题莫过于中国政府需要多久并在何种程度上减缓其过热的经济增长。
韩国财政经济部负责国际事务的副部长权泰申(Kwon Tae Shi)在周日接受采访时表示，不仅仅是亚洲国家，眼下全世界都在注视著中国。
在上周末于济州召开的亚洲开发银行年会期间，中国方面一直尽全力安抚其邻国，向他们保证中国将实现经济软著陆。而对于与会的、中国之外的各方代表而言，他们一方面表达了对中国领导层有能力使经济降温的信心，同时也刻意淡化了中国经济增长减缓可能给自身带来的影响。
在周六东南亚国家联盟(Asean)和中国、日本、韩国召开的、“东盟十国加三”会议结束后，中国财政部部长金人庆对记者表示，中国政府有能力、也有信心实现中国经济的软著陆，并确保中国经济实现平稳和可持续的增长。
按照与会官员的说法，中国减缓经济增长的话题成为了本次“东盟十国加三”会议以及中、日、韩财政部长在会议间歇举行的单独会谈的主要议题。
日本财务大臣谷垣祯一(Sadakazu Tanigaki)在与中国官员会晤后表示，中国政府对于减缓经济增长的问题有足够的认识，并正以其卓越的领导才能来解决上述问题。
韩国副总理兼财政经济部部长李宪宰(Lee Hun Jai)也表示，考虑到中国经济对全球经济的巨大影响，中国成功解决经济增长过热并实现软著陆对于全球经济增长十分重要。
李宪宰表示，在与中国同行会谈后，他确信中国政府有能力在不损害总体经济发展趋势的前提下减缓增速，他在周日举行的新闻发布会上表示，不应该担心中国经济会发生硬著陆的风险。
但他表示，即便中国经济无法控制增势，韩国也已制定应急措施、做到有备无患。
像东亚其他各经济体那样，韩国越来越依赖中国作为其出口目的地以及低成本的海外加工基地。中国去年已超过美国成为韩国的第一大出口市场。
在被问及韩国财政部部长提到的应急措施时，权泰申解释说，尽管中国当地经济的增长对韩国的发展日趋重要，但未必是韩国经济增长的关键。他补充说，韩国对中国的出口中有88%是以资本货物和用于加工并再出口的原材料构成的，因此韩国企业对全球经济复苏的依靠要大于对中国本土消费的依赖程度。
其他官员指出，尽管中国经济能否实现软著陆令他们担忧，但全球其他市场的加快发展将能填补因中国经济降温带来的需求空缺。
亚洲开发银行首席经济学家Ifzal Ali在周日举行的新闻发布会上表示，即使中国经济出现硬著陆，那也绝非会带来灾难性后果，因为，随著美国和日本经济加速增长，以及在发展相对较慢的欧洲经济的带动下，全球其他市场将能够缓冲中国经济放缓给全球经济带来的任何影响。
