Calamity Will Be Investors' Partner
Once asked what could most easily derail a government, the late British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan replied, "Events, dear boy, events."
It's no different with stock markets. And, after being mostly dormant since the defeat of Iraq a year ago, geopolitical risk is back -- worth considering from a financial perspective if you're a stock investor anywhere in the world.
In March alone, global stock markets have been rattled by, among other events, the terrorist attack in Madrid and unexpected election defeat of Spain's conservative government; the impeachment of South Korea's president; the shooting of Taiwan's president and his subsequent disputed election victory; and Israel's assassination of the leader of the militant group Hamas.
In addition, terrorist attempts were thwarted in Greece and Pakistan; explosives were discovered on French rail tracks; and opposition-parties scored victories in French and German regional elections, raising doubts about the implementation of reform agendas.
At a time when investors are already jittery over the global economic outlook, the two together could make for some rocky times in global stock markets. Those political and terrorist events come as Europe's economy is stagnating, investors have begun questioning the sustainability of the U.S. recovery and there is mounting evidence that the Chinese juggernaut could slow.
Going forward, global markets will likely be buffeted by "a protracted period of terrorist acts and efforts to fight against their perpetrators," says Jean-Pierre Hellebuyck, chief investment strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris. He also notes that economic surveys and leading indicators are pointing to sluggish growth in the second half of 2004 and in 2005
Already, markets are reflecting some of that pessimism. Despite recovering a bit in the past few days, Continental European markets are down nearly 4% since the March 11 Madrid bombings and emerging Asian markets are off almost 3%, while Wall Street is basically flat.
Although predicting the future course of geopolitics can prove no more productive than playing darts blindfolded, investment gurus point to a number of potential market-dislocating events in the future. Renewed tensions involving North Korea and between India and Pakistan carry a nuclear component. Continued problems in Iraq could send oil prices soaring and add to Middle East instability. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigations last week warned that al Qaeda might attempt to terrorize the Greek summer Olympics or the U.S. political party conventions.
A second attack on the U.S. -- even if on a much smaller scale -- could produce an even stronger reaction in financial markets than the hit they took after Sept. 11, 2001, warns Arun Motianey, research director at Citigroup Private Bank in New York. "This is partly because the government has already applied the maximum amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus to pull the economy out of the post-bubble, post-9/11 recession."
Chilling stuff, to be sure. And a very tough issue for investors to handle -- even the threat of such an atrocity can affect virtually every facet of the underpinnings of the financial markets. "Arguably, the more concerned people are about terrorist risk, the more consumer confidence falls, putting pressure on business confidence," says Robert Parker, deputy chairman of Credit Suisse Asset Management in London. He points to Israel, where "terrorist risk is massive" and where investment "has collapsed."
So what to do?
Some advise taking global stock market upheaval caused by the heightened risk of a market-moving event in stride. "If you're a long-term investor, conduct business as usual and have steady nerves. And if you get a sudden market drop ... take advantage of it and use it as a buying opportunity," says Alan Brown, group chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors in London. The stock crash of "1987 looks like a blip on a chart now."
But others say it doesn't hurt to take positions that are the least likely to be affected by a calamity. AXA's Mr. Hellebuyck, for instance, advises taking advantage of price declines to build up exposure to defensive sectors, such as utilities, food and beverage companies, food retailers and tobacco.
Meanwhile, Mr. Parker believes that Japanese and Chinese markets are relatively safe from terrorism. Another beneficiary, he adds, "has got to be emerging-market equities -- except for the Middle East and possibly Russia -- on the thesis that terrorist risk in Asia and Central Europe is less."
But, beware, not all emerging markets are created equal. In a study of how emerging markets performed during periods of above-average volatility, Brian Gendreau, a managing director at Heckman Global Advisors in New York, discovered that small, less-liquid markets such as Colombia, Venezuela, Peru and Egypt tended to outperform their bigger emerging-market brethren such as Hong Kong, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
恐怖主义和地缘政治风险可能震撼股市
已故英国首相麦克米伦(Harold MacMillan)曾被问及什么可能最容易颠覆一个政府，他当时回答道："突发事件，没错，就是突发事件。"
股市也不例外。在经历了一年前伊拉克战争结束以来的沉寂之后，地缘政治风险卷土重来。
光在3月份，全球股市就接二连三地受创：马德里遭恐怖袭击、西班牙保守党政府在大选中意外败北；韩国总统遭弹劾；台湾总统遭枪袭后赢得大选的结果引发争议；以色列暗杀军事组织哈马斯(Hamas)的头目。
此外还有，希腊和巴基斯坦挫败恐怖分子企图；法国铁路发现爆炸物；法国和德国地区选举反对派获胜，不由得令人们对改革计划的实施产生疑问。 由于目前欧洲经济停滞不前，投资者开始对美国复苏能否持久感到怀疑，更多迹象表明中国经济的惊人增速可能放缓，恐怖袭击和政治动荡的出现使得全球股市雪上加霜。而且，AXA Investment Managers驻巴黎首席投资策略师希利拜克(Jean-Pierre Hellebuyck)称，经济调查和领先指标均显示，今年下半年和2005年经济增长缓慢。
希利拜克认为，曾支持美国发动对伊战争的西班牙现任政府3月14日在大选中落败，这代表著恐怖分子的胜利，因为它表明，耸人听闻的恐怖活动可以影响到一项民主选举的结果。他说，今后，恐怖活动和反恐斗争仍将持续，全球市场可能继续受到打击。这种斗争将使得公司经营不得不付出更高成本和更多时间，迫使它们将更大精力花在安全、交通、库存和保险上。 政府方面也是如此。希利拜克举例说，目前美国国防开支只占到国内生产总值的4.5%，而在冷战高峰期，这一比例达到16%。
在过去几天里，全球股市收复了部分失地。不过，自3月11日马德里发生爆炸以来，欧洲股市已经下跌了近4%，新兴亚洲市场下跌近3%，而美国市场基本持平。
虽然预测地缘政局的未来动向无异于蒙眼掷镖，但投资专家还是指出了许多可能引起市场动荡的事件：朝鲜紧张局势重燃、印度和巴基斯坦之间爆发核危机。伊拉克的局势一旦失控，可能会推动油价攀升，并加剧中东地区的不稳定性。 同时，美国联邦调查局(Federal Bureau of Investigations)上周发出警告说，"基地"组织可能企图在希腊夏季奥运会或美国政党集会上发动恐怖袭击。
如果民主党总统候选人约翰?克里(John Kerry)赢得大选，美国国内财政政策和税法可能会有重大调整。伦敦Credit Suisse Asset Management的副董事长巴克(Robert Parker)称，眼下没有人真正关注布什失败的可能性，但是过了夏天他们就会了。
而且，Citigroup Private Bank驻纽约的研究主管蒙蒂尼(Arun Motianey)警告说，美国本土如果再爆发一次恐怖袭击，即使规模很小，也会在金融市场产生更强烈的反响。其中部分原因是，为了拉动经济摆脱泡沫经济、911事件后的衰退，政府在货币和财政政策方面已经尽其所能。
在回忆起过去十年中墨西哥、亚洲、俄罗斯和阿根廷的金融危机，对冲基金长期资本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management)的濒临崩溃和科技泡沫的破灭后，巴克指出，意外事件已经由主权经济风险转到地缘政治和恐怖主义风险方面。
他还说，恐怖主义带来的影响与债务危机或是政策转变的后果不同。人们对恐怖主义风险越担心，消费者信心下滑的幅度就越大，从而对企业信心造成压力。他以以色列为例，该地区遭受严重的恐怖主义风险，而当地的投资已告崩溃。 一些类股也会受到影响。AXA的希利拜克建议投资者藉股价下挫之机增持公用事业、食品饮料、食品零售和烟草等抗跌股。
另一方面，巴克说，航空类股及其他任何与出行旅游相关的类股都会受损。其他遭受负面影响的类股包括科技、非必需消费品及金融公司，保险业尤其在劫难逃。
同时巴克认为，相对而言，日本和中国市场受恐怖主义影响较小。另一受益者是除中东和俄罗斯以外的新兴市场，因为理论上讲，亚洲和欧洲中部遭遇恐怖袭击的风险更小一些。
但是，要当心的是，新兴市场的表现并不一致。在一项关于新兴市场在高度动荡期间表现的研究中，Heckman Global Advisors驻纽约的董事总经理詹德瑞(Brian Gendreau)发现，流动性较差的市场往往表现更胜一筹。他将这个看似不合理的结论同大型国际基金经理的交易活动联系起来。这些人习惯于抛售在规模更大、交投更活跃市场的头寸，保留在缺乏流动性的小市场中的持股。
这种做法在美国基金经理中尤为普遍。詹德瑞称，摩根士丹利EAFE指数是他们使用的基准指数，该指数中不包括新兴市场。因此，他们往往成为新兴市场的机会主义参与者，由于他们手中的大笔资金，美国基金经理通常喜欢投资流动性强的大型股和大规模市场。
其他人建议冷静对待市场的剧变。伦敦道富环球投资管理(State Street Global Advisors)的集团首席投资长布朗(Alan Brown)称，对于长线投资者来说，只需照常开展业务，保持心境稳定。如果市场突然下挫，可以逢低买进。
