Dude, You're Finally Getting a New PC
I 'M TIRED OF THIS FOUR-YEAR-OLD computer box homesteading on my desk. And the clunky 17-inch monitor sitting atop a pile of phone books can go, too.
Of course, my magnanimous employer outfits me with a sleek notebook for mobile computing and other road warrior tasks. But in the office, I've got a dirty beige box connected to a worldwide lifeline of network servers. That means I'm ready for something shiny and new, replete with a nifty space-saving flat-screen monitor.
Am I going to get it? Probably not this year. But from what we are hearing, at least some of you lucky few finally will be getting personal-computing upgrades at the office in 2004. After all, you have been to hell and back and you deserve it, right?
Well, not exactly. The primary reason that enterprise hardware sales are looking up this year is that your bosses are afraid that your productivity is falling, or will soon fall, behind that of your competitors. There are also federal tax incentives that expire in about a year.
"While I'm still in the camp of moderate improvement, there's no question that things are getting a little bit better," says Merrill Lynch hardware analyst Steve Milunovich. "The spending psychology has really changed. I actually think that PCs could do well this year."
Of course, we have heard a lot about personal computer upgrade cycles in the past. Somebody, somewhere made up the maxim that PCs needed to be replaced every three years. But that was a yarn spun before the first technology depression of the 21st century, where CEOs and CFOs discovered their cubicle troops could get by with machines bought during the Y2K spending mania. Besides, as one bearish hedge fund manager opined during the bust: Nobody ever mandated that every IBM Selectric typewriter needed to be replaced every three years. If they worked, you just replaced the ink. Or so he said.
But sooner or later, even those bulletproof Selectrics needed replacement. Consumers have kept the personal computer makers afloat, helping Dell to continue to perform at its admired pace throughout the bust. And it looks like retail customers have powered computer makers to a strong finish during the final quarter of last year, says Goldman Sachs hardware analyst Laura Conigliaro. She is raising her 2003 fourth-quarter PC growth estimate to 15.6%, up from her previous year-over-year estimate of 12.5%.
Now it may be corporate customers' turn. Conigliaro is calling for a "handoff" from consumers to corporate enterprise computer buyers sometime this year. "We expect a gradual uptick of commercial PC unit growth as corporate information technology improves," she says.
At the same time, she expects consumer computer sales to slow. But based on her optimism that corporate CFOs may start writing some checks, she has jacked her estimate for total PC unit growth for 2004 to 12%, up from her previous forecast of 8.9%. Conigliaro pegs two-thirds of her rosier forecast for corporate computer buying on emerging markets in China and India as well as fast-growing smaller companies. But that still means some of you in corporate America will get new machines. Based on the improved health of the enterprise market, Conigliaro is calling for Dell's shares, which traded Friday at 36, to rise at least 15% over the near term. Meantime, while Hewlett-Packard is less of a pure PC play, Conigliaro has a target of 25, less than a buck over where it traded Friday.
Naturally, none of that signals a return to the PC booms of yesteryear, but it does suggest that CFOs are finally willing to spend on hardware beyond what is absolutely necessary. While the overriding philosophy among corporate chieftains is to make the most of the gear in place through better systems integration and tweaked server utilization, there is a minority of companies that are going to increase their computing capacity for the first time in a while, Merrill's Milunovich points out.
That doesn't necessarily mean that big corporate customers will be spending wildly on new whiz-bang machines or types of servers they don't already use, such as Intel-based Linux systems, he says. Instead, they will expand their systems by buying machines they already have, which is good news for incumbents whether they be IBM, H-P, Sun Microsystems or whoever. Milunovich says that most hardware vendors met or beat his earnings estimates for the fourth quarter last year, giving him reason to think that they finally may be getting some momentum. But companies will still be frugal, buying only what they absolutely need to get the job done. Says Milunovich: "If it is anything discretionary -- forget it."
Sun Shines on Mars
Mars rotates around the Sun, but geeks at Sun are dancing in circles over their pivotal role in the latest expedition to the Red Planet.
Let's face it, the folks at Sun Microsystems have not had much to celebrate the last couple of years. But when the six-wheeled Mars rover "Spirit" landed on the planet's frigid surface last week, a cheer could be heard from Sun's base on earth in Santa Clara, Calif.
The scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena rely on Sun's Java software to control the rover on Mars some 100 million miles away. Java -- a programming language designed to generate applications that can run on all hardware platforms without much modification -- was used by NASA for its control systems on the ground. The software's open and flexible qualities were a good fit for the myriad applications and network protocols required to build a system that allows a robotic buggy to be steered and maneuvered on the surface of another planet, says Sun Chief Technology Officer James Gosling.
To see Java, which is used in mobile phones and millions of Web browsers back on earth, make its mark on Mars is certainly a proud moment for Gosling, who is sometimes referred to as the "father of Java." But for the Sun scientist and NASA adviser, the pleasure has been all his. Gosling says he watches in awe at the scope and challenges that the space agency's engineers face. "I was just impressed as hell. These things they do are just at the bleeding hairy edge of human capability," Gosling says.
Too often, NASA gets rapped for its failures while its many success are taken for granted. Gosling says he tries to apply lessons learned at NASA to such things as quality control and product development at Sun. What's more, if he were ever to get bored with his job at Sun, NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab would be one of the first places to which he would apply. Says Gosling: "They work on things that most people consider science fiction."
Back on earth, Sun's shares also have lifted off, surging over 20%, to around 5.40 by Friday. The stock got a boost Thursday when Banc of America Securities analyst Steve Bachman raised his rating to Buy from Neutral, owing to Sun's plan to introduce servers with Advanced Micro Devices' new 64-bit microprocessor and the revival in tech spending.
AOL Lite
The rollout of a low-cost Internet service last week by Time Warner's America Online unit doesn't come as a total surprise, given that it falls under the Netscape brand, both of which had been reported by The Wall Street Journal last October.
We also had come across a branding and product survey AOL was conducting last fall. The survey was part of a new product test for desktop software that would offer a browser-less way of accessing the Internet. While signs of that product have yet to surface, it is clear that AOL was looking to wring as much value out of the Netscape and Navigator franchises as possible. AOL had been losing customers to lower-cost Internet service providers, such as United Online's NetZero and Juno.
Realizing that it needed to act, the online giant introduced a low-frills Internet service for $9.95 a month under the Netscape moniker. Perhaps most ironic is that once-mighty AOL says it has to launch the new service on a shoestring and will not try to match United Online's hefty television advertising budget, which surely has driven its impressive subscription growth. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
兄弟，你终于要换一台新电脑了
我腻烦了办公桌上这台已经用了四年的旧电脑，而摞在一叠电话簿上的那台又蠢又笨的17寸显示器也该退休了。
当然，我那宽宏大量的雇主的确是给我配了一台笔记本电脑，以方便我移动办公并完成那些街头武士的任务。但在办公室里，我用的却是这台脏旧得发黄的与全球网络伺服器联接著的大方盒子。这也就是说，我该换一台崭新的、配备漂亮且节省空间的平面显示器的新电脑了。
我能得到吗？或许不是今年。但从我们所听到的消息，至少你们中一部分走运的家伙2004年就能实现办公用品的升级换代。毕竟你们是去地狱走了一遭的人，你们该得到这一切，是吧？
慢著，还不一定呢。企业客户硬件设备销售额上升的主要原因是你们的老板怕你们的生产效率下降，或者说会下降，从而落后于你们的竞争对手。另外还有就是联邦税收优惠政策再有一年左右就要到期了。
美林(Merrill Lynch)的硬件产业分析师史蒂夫?米卢诺维奇(Steve Milunovich)说，虽然他依然认为行业形势只会出现温和改善，但情况确实是好了一点了。人们的消费心理的确是发生了变化。他认为个人电脑业今年会有不错的表现。
当然，过去我们已经听到过很多关于个人电脑更新周期的说法。记不得什么人曾在什么地方说过这样的名言：个人电脑每三年就需更新一次。但那是21世纪第一次科技大萧条之前的奇谈。到了萧条出现的时候，那些CEO和CFO们发现，在千年虫问题引发的购买狂潮中买下的那些电脑再对付上几年也还过得去。另外，正如一位看跌市场的对冲基金经理所言，谁也不曾下令说每一台IBM电子打字机每三年就得换一次，只要还能用，换个色带就是了。
但是就算那些像防弹装甲一般结实的电子打字机也迟早需要更新。消费者的需求一直支撑著个人电脑制造商。戴尔电脑(Dell)自科技泡沫破灭以来一直能保持骄人的业绩全赖于此。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的硬件行业分析师劳拉?康妮格里亚洛(Laura Conigliaro)也说，看上去是零售客户的推动使电脑制造商去年全年的销售业绩划上了一个完美的句号。她决定要把她对个人电脑行业2003年四季度的增长预期从原先的12.5%上调到15.6%。
现在或许该轮到企业客户了。康妮格里亚洛预期，个人消费者手中的接力棒今年该传给企业客户了。她说，随著公司信息技术的改进，商用电脑销售有望逐步增长。
同时，她预计家用电脑销售会有所下降，但是基于她对企业技术支出增长的乐观预期，她估计2004年总体个人电脑销售会有12%的增长，高于她自己先前预期的8.9%这一增幅。康妮格里亚洛将其如此乐观的增幅预期的三分之二归因于中国、印度等新兴市场国家强劲的公司客户购买势头，以及小型公司的快速成长。但虽如此，你们美国公司中有一些也会用上新机器。基于对企业市场状况改善的预期，康妮格里亚洛预计戴尔电脑的股票在近期至少能有15%的升幅。该股周五收于36美元。同时，惠普(Hewlett-Packlard)因为不是一家完完全全的电脑制造商，康妮格里亚洛对该股的目标价位预期是25美元，比周五收盘价低1美元。
自然，所有这一切都并不表明电脑行业就要重返昔日的辉煌，但公司CFO们终于肯在必不可少的开支以外再增加一些硬件设备开支了，这一点却是无庸置疑的。美林的米卢诺维奇也指出，虽然公司老总们至高无上的信念是通过更好的系统整合和伺服器的有效利用使现有的大部分设备能够继续使用，但也有一小部分公司不久会实行有史以来的第一次设备扩充。
这不一定意味著大公司客户就会大把花钱购买新型机器或新的伺服器系统，如基于英特尔(Intel)技术的Linux系统。相反，他们会通过购买更多和目前使用的机器同型号的机器来扩大现有的系统。这对于国际商业机器公司(IBM)、惠普和Sun电子计算机(Sun Microsystems)而言确是好消息。米卢诺维奇说，大多数硬件制造商去年第四季度收益都达到了他先前的预期，因而使他有理由相信它们终于会显现出一定程度的增长势头。然而公司客户在开支上仍会保持节俭，只购买完成工作所必须的设备。
太阳(Sun)的技术光芒照耀火星
火星绕著太阳转，但前不久当人类在火星这个红色星球的最新探险活动初战告捷时，太阳微电脑公司(Sun Microsystems，又称：升阳微电脑)的家伙们却为他们在这项活动中扮演的关键角色而高兴成了一团。
Sun的家伙们已经有好几年没什么可炫耀的了。但上周，当有6个轮子的“勇气号”火星探测器在火星表面著陆的时候，位于加州圣克拉拉的Sun公司总部也爆发出一片欢呼声。
美国国家航空及太空总署(NASA)喷气推进实验室的科学家们要仰仗Sun的Java软件在地面上控制探测器在一亿公里之外的火星上移动。Java是一种编程语言，它能生成可在各种硬件平台上运行的应用程序，而不用针对不同平台作很多改动。
Sun的首席技术总监詹姆士?科斯林(James Gosling)说，在地球上控制一个在遥远的另一星球表面移动的自动车无疑需要一个由无数应用程序和网络协议组成的复杂而庞大的系统，而Java开放且灵活的特性正适应了这种要求。
看到Java在火星上留下它无形的足迹，被誉为Java之父的科斯林无疑会感到无比骄傲。Java还应用于手机和网络浏览器中。
科斯林说，他对NASA科学家们所面对的无限空间和各种挑战感到无比敬畏。他说，他深感敬畏，NASA科学家们所做的一切简直已经达到了人类能力的极限。
NASA的每一次成功都被视为理所当然，而一旦失败，每每遭遇口诛笔伐。科斯林说，他希望将从NASA那里学到的有关质量控制和产品开发方面的经验教训用于Sun的管理过程。他甚至表示，如果有一天他对在Sun的工作厌倦了，NASA的喷气推进实验室将是他的首选。他说，那里的人做的工作大多数普通人只在科幻小说里才能看到。
回到Sun的现实里来吧。周五，该股股价飙升了20%，达到5.40美元左右。
周四，美银证券(Banc of America Securities)的分析师史蒂夫?白奇曼(Steve Bachman)将该股评级从中性上调至买进，使该股大获推动。白奇曼上调评级的原因是Sun计划推出内置高级微设备公司(dvanced Micro Devices)64位微处理器的伺服器，另外，企业的技术支出回升也是上调该股评级的原因之一。
美国在线低调推出新产品
时代华纳公司(Time Warner Inc)的子公司美国在线(America Online)上周推出了低成本互联网服务，鉴于该服务使用的是网景(Netscape)的品牌名称，此举并不特别出人意料，这件事《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)去年10月曾报导过。
我们还要谈谈美国在线去年秋天进行的一次品牌和产品调查。这项调查是一个桌面软件新产品测试的一部分，这种产品可以使人们不使用浏览器就可以接入互联网。尽管这种新产品八字还没有一撇，但美国在线显然是希望尽可能多地从其网景和Navigator品牌上榨取价值。United Online旗下的NetZero和Juno等低成本互联网服务提供商一直在从美国在线手中夺取客户。
在意识到需要采取行动后，美国在线以网景为品牌名称推出了低附加值互联网服务，月收费仅为9.95美元。最可笑的可能是，曾经财大气粗的美国在线称，在推出这项新服务的广告宣传方面它不准备花大钱，并不想像United Online那样斥巨资作电视广告。而后者的这类广告无疑推动了其订户数量的显著增长。唉，美国在线真是落破得很啊。
