Economic Monitor: Vietnam's Costly Dreams
Watch the weeds sprouting in Vietnam's field of dreams. The national frenzy to build industrial parks has far exceeded demand from investors -- leaving wide, empty spaces in many provinces and marring perceptions of rapid economic growth.
As of October 9, Vietnam counted 86 industrial parks and export-processing zones spread over 17,000 hectares, an increase of 4,400 hectares since 2000. However, such official figures underestimate the real expanse of industrial land under development, since they mysteriously exclude dozens of smaller industrial parks, or IPs, approved by provincial authorities and huge swathes of land being transformed in central Vietnam.
Officials point to a 45% average IP-occupancy rate nationwide. But in practice, only a few southern localities have managed to fill industrial parks to 80% capacity or more, while many other provinces are saddled with 15%-20% occupancy. In April, Hanoi warned provinces with less than 50% IP-occupancy rates to stop building new ones. Still, the poor showing hasn't dented the bureaucratic appetite for converting agricultural land to cemented lots. The target: 133 industrial parks by 2010.
"It's very clear that there has been overexpansion of industrial parks," says Vietnamese economist Le Dang Doanh. "They are not well marketed, and some of them do not have appropriate infrastructure or a suitable, available labour force." Some estimate only 20% of the parks turn a profit. "Most of them are failures, with only a few successes," notes Hoang Van Dung, vice-president of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The failure comes at a steep price. Domestic investment in industrial parks totals 16.6 trillion dong, or more than $1 billion. Meanwhile, foreign investors are spending $981 million to create industrial parks. Not surprisingly, the foreign-invested parks and some of the privately run parks tend to be more successful than the state-run facilities, due to superior amenities and management.
Yet the current rate of foreign investment won't come close to sustaining Vietnam's IP boom. During the first nine months of 2003, Vietnam licensed 476 new foreign-invested projects with pledged capital of $1.19 billion. In terms of the number of projects, that's only a 1.7% increase over the same period last year. Meanwhile, disbursed foreign investment reached $2.05 billion in the first three quarters, up 5% over the same period last year.
Vietnam's leadership is counting on industrialization to create jobs and reduce poverty. Some trends are encouraging. Industrial production hit $14.6 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 15.9% over the same period last year. And the Asian Development Bank predicts solid 6.9% GDP growth for 2003 and 7.1% for 2004.
But another driving factor is graft. However avid they may be in pursuing more jobs and investment, provincial officials are widely known to be pocketing fat commissions from the construction contracts on industrial parks. Hanoi is hardly an innocent bystander, as it seeks to cement political loyalties. "The proliferation of industrial zones is an opportunity to allocate pay-offs to local officials," asserts one foreign economist based in Hanoi.
The crowning irony is that most Vietnamese private businessmen at small and medium-sized firms still say their biggest problem is getting their hands on affordable, strategically located commercial land. The new industrial parks are too pricey for them. And the country's complex land laws hinder their ability to negotiate for individual plots. "There's obviously a mismatch going on," says American business consultant Markus Taussig. Sadly, that mismatch will likely mean fewer new jobs in the long run.
越南人的梦想代价沉重
杂草已经开始在越南人民充满无限梦想的土地上丛生。越南全国性建设工业园的热潮已经大大超过投资者的需求，这导致很多省份出现宽旷的空置地，并摧毁了对经济快速增长的追求。
截至10月9日，越南的工业园和出口加工区数量为86个，占地超过17,000公顷，较2000年增长4,400公顷。但是，这些官方数据低估了在建工业区的实际扩张面积，因为数据神秘地去除了数十个省级管理当局批准的小型工业园以及越南中部大量转变为建设用地的土地。
越南官员指出全国工业园的平均入住率为45%。但实际上，仅仅南部的部分工业园实现入住率为80%或者更高，其他很多省份的入住率仅有15%-20%。越南政府在4月份警告工业园入住率低于50%的省份停止建设新的工业园。但是，糟糕的表现无法阻止官僚机构对将农业用地转为工业用地的热情。政府的目标是在2010年建设133个工业园。
越南经济学家Le Dang Doanh表示，工业园已经很明显地发展过度。它们的推广不力，而且部分工业园没有合适的基础设施或者适当的、可利用的劳动力资源。部分人士预计仅有20%的工业园实现盈利。越南工商总会(Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry)副主席Hoang Van Dung表示，大部分工业园是失败的，只有很少一部分取得成功。
这种失败的代价沉重。用于工业园的国内投资总计16.6万亿盾，合超过10亿美元。另一方面，外国投资者为建设工业园支付9.81亿美元。不出所料的是，外国投资工业园和部分私人运营的工业园较国有工业园更为成功，因为前者的基础设施和管理更为出色。
但是外国投资目前的增长率依旧无法保证越南工业园的持续增长。2003年前9个月，越南新批476个外商投资项目，合同金额11.9亿美元。项目数量上来看，这较去年同期仅增长1.7%。另一方面，前三个季度的实际外国投资为20.5亿美元，较去年同期增长5%。
越南的领导人目前寄希望于工业化来创造就业和减少贫困。目前的部分趋势激励人心。今年前9个月的工业产值为146亿美元，较去年同期增长15.9%。亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)预计2003年国内生产总值(GDP)强劲增长6.9%，2004年的增长率为7.1%。
但是另一个影响因素是腐败问题。无论越南政府多么迫切地追求就业和投资增长，人们都知道省级官员将工业园建设合约的巨额佣金放入自己的腰包内。越南政府无法再成为一个无辜的旁观者，尽管其一再探求巩固政治上的忠诚。一位外国经济学家表示，工业园的扩大是当地官员增加私利的绝好机会。新建工业园对于他们而言太为昂贵。而越南复杂的土地法规阻碍了其就私人使用进行谈判的能力。美国企业咨询师陶西格(Markus Taussig)表示，很明显存在著不匹配的地方。可悲的是，这种不匹配将可能意味著长期的新增就业机会减少。
