日圆升值增强中国吸引力
Dollar's Retreat Puts Pressure On Japanese, Korean Exporters
Weaker U.S. Currency Weighs on Profits,
Adds Incentive to Shift Operations to China
The dollar's continuing slide against the yen could have broad implications for companies not just in Japan but also in several Asian countries whose currencies usually move in tandem with the yen. It could crimp profits and even nudge companies in Taiwan and South Korea, as well as in Japan, to shift more of their operations to China.
With the Chinese yuan tied to the dollar, China's low-cost manufacturing base would look even more attractive to companies whose home-market currencies are appreciating against the dollar. For instance, James Chung , a spokesman for Samsung Electronics Co., one of South Korea's largest exporters and its biggest electronics company, said that although it is too late to change manufacturing plans for this year, "our dependence on China may grow" if the yen and the won "continue to show strong gains."
Driving competitive exporters to the lower-cost location of China probably wasn't the intention of the U.S. and other industrialized nations when they issued an endorsement this past weekend of more flexible exchange rates. The U.S.-orchestrated communique from the Group of Seven was widely seen as an attempt to push Japan to stop intervening in currency markets to keep the yen weak, which helps Japanese exports by making them more affordable.
In an even higher-profile campaign, U.S. officials have been pushing China lately to let its currency float, saying an artificially weak yuan is making Chinese products more competitive and taking away U.S. manufacturing jobs. (See related article.)
But so far, the real movement has come in the yen, which strengthened to a two-year high against the dollar Monday in response to the G-7 statement and continued the trend Tuesday. In late U.S. trading Tuesday, the dollar had edged up to ￥112.26, from ￥112.13 late Monday in New York. Markets in Tokyo were closed for a holiday.
Economists don't expect Japan will let the yen appreciate much further. "We still look for broad intervention in Asian markets to keep currencies from appreciating heavily," wrote Jonathan Anderson, chief Asian economist for UBS in Hong Kong, in a research report Tuesday. And an exchange rate of ￥110 to the dollar, or even ￥105, probably wouldn't torpedo exports provided the Japanese economy keeps growing, says Masaaki Kanno, an economist with J.P. Morgan Chase in Tokyo.
Still, Japanese companies, and those in countries whose currencies generally move in tandem with the yen, such as South Korea and Taiwan, could feel a pinch. Companies in South Korea could be the worst-hit, economists say, since the economy remains hobbled by weak domestic demand. Some industries, such as chemicals and steel, also don't have much power to raise prices in the face of an appreciating currency. A stronger won might be the factor that "breaks the camel's back" in South Korea, UBS strategist Ian McLennan said. Big auto makers in Japan, though, are especially vulnerable to a strengthening in the yen against the dollar because they export millions of vehicles a year to the U.S. and other countries, and earn most of their profits overseas. Short-term fluctuations in exchange rates don't affect auto makers much because they use futures contracts to lock in rates months in advance. But if the yen stays high against the dollar, Japanese auto companies' profits will suffer.
"Clearly the yen strengthening is going to have a negative impact" on business, said Nissan Motor Co. spokesman Gerry Spahn. The Japanese car maker estimates that its operating profit falls by ￥10 billion ($89.2 million), or a little more than 1%, for every yen less that the dollar buys, compared with its currency forecast of ￥120 per dollar. So far, though, the currency swing "doesn't put our profit forecast at risk," Mr. Spahn said, because rising sales volumes in the U.S. look likely to offset some of the foreign-exchange losses.
The yen's strength is especially worrisome for Toyota Motor Corp., which sees its operating profit reduced by about ￥20 billion for every yen the Japanese currency rises against the dollar. Analysts estimate Toyota's profit will shrink for the year ending next March 31 if the dollar trades at an average rate of less than ￥115 for the fiscal year.
Electronics giant Mitsubishi Electric Corp. said it might need to revise its current rosy profit forecast if the yen strengthens to ￥100 to the dollar. On Monday, Mitsubishi Electric more than doubled its group net-profit estimate for the year because of a pickup in factory-equipment sales.
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., which got about half of its previous fiscal year's ￥7.5 trillion in revenue overseas, said it has locked in foreign-currency protection for the rest of the year through forward contracts. Such contracts give the holder the right to buy or sell a particular security at a given price on a given future date. However, if the strong yen should continue long term, Matsushita will see an effect on its earnings, a spokesman said. But that effect won't be nearly as great as it once would have been, because Matsushita now manufactures abroad most products aimed at overseas markets, with the exception of cutting-edge products such as plasma display panels, the spokesman said.
Indeed, the recent shift of a good chunk of Asian manufacturing to China has profoundly altered the way currency fluctuations affect businesses in the region. South Korea, for one, recently saw its exports to China surpass those to the U.S. While some of those products are earmarked for China's growing domestic market, the bulk of them are shipped to Chinese factories set up by South Korean companies. There, outfits such as Samsung and LG Electronics take advantage of China's low-cost manufacturing base to lower their own costs.
Because it buys components from around the world, Samsung has a built-in hedge against currency fluctuations. Its exports might not bring in as much revenue when the won strengthens, but imports of parts from places such as the U.S. become less expensive at the same time, helping to offset those losses. What's happening now in currency markets "doesn't directly mean our basic internal plan has to change," said spokesman Mr. Chung. "But we are cautiously watching the trends out there." Still, Deutsche Bank on Tuesday downgraded its rating on shares of Samsung to "hold" from "buy," citing the strengthening won as one reason.
Big chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said the impact of currency fluctuations on its business has been "limited" lately, partly because it too benefits from a weak dollar when it buys expensive equipment from overseas. "There certainly is an impact" to a continued weak dollar against the yen and the New Taiwan dollar, spokesman J.H. Tzeng said, "but we don't know what it will be." The company isn't likely to shift much manufacturing to China, since it isn't labor-intensive and can't benefit much from China's low labor costs, Mr. Tzeng said. Still, it does plan to open one facility in China by the end of this year.
日圆升值增强中国吸引力
美元兑日圆的继续贬值将对亚洲地区产生广泛影响，不仅日本、台湾和韩国公司的利润增长受到抑制，甚至会促使它们将更多的业务移至中国。
三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)表示，现在改变今年的生产计划已经太晚。公司发言人James Chung说，但从长远看来，如果“日圆和韩圆持续升值，那我们对中国的依赖性就可能增加”。三星电子是韩国出口量最大的公司之一，也是韩国最大的电子公司。美元的贬值会使与其挂钩的人民币也相对走软，对于那些本币兑美元升值的公司而言，同样1韩圆就可以买到更多的生产设备和劳动力，从而使中国这个低成本生产基地显得更加诱人。
这可能是美国及其它工业国家在发表G7公告时始料未及的。七大工业国上周发表公告号召各国实行更加灵活的汇率政策。人们普遍认为，这份美国一手策划下发表的G7公告旨在向日本施压，要求其不要为了刺激出口干预外汇市场。
更加引人注目的是，美国官员最近还要求中国允许人民币自由浮动，声称人民币汇率被人为保持在较低水平，导致中国产品竞争力增强，令美国制造业工作岗位流失。
到目前看来，日圆汇率已经出现实质波动。G7公告发布后，日圆兑美元汇率周一升至两年高点。纽约汇市周二午盘，美元跌至111.74日圆，低于纽约汇市周一尾盘的112.13日圆。东京金融市场周二因假日休市。
经济学家估计日本不会让日圆大幅升值。瑞银(UBS)驻香港的亚洲首席经济学家安德森(Jonathan Anderson)在一份研究报告中写道，“预计日本还是会大规模干预市场，以避免日圆大幅升值”。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase) 驻东京经济学家菅野雅明(Masaaki Kanno)说，如果日本经济能保持增长，那即使日圆升至1美元兑110日圆，甚至105日圆，对日本出口的打击都不会很严重。
但对于日本公司和那些本币走势通常追随日圆的韩国和台湾公司而言，影响是在所难免的。其中，由于韩国经济内需不振，所以韩国公司受到影响可能最大。另外，化工和钢铁等行业在面对本币升值时调整价格的能力也很有限。瑞银策略师伊恩?麦克伦南(Ian McLennan)说，韩圆升值对韩国经济可能是“致命一击”。
日本汽车制造商每年向美国及其他国家出口数百万辆汽车，且它们的多数利润都来自海外市场，所以它们对日圆升值的承受力也是相当脆弱的。这些公司通常使用期货合约来锁定几个月后的汇率水平，短期的汇率波动对它们的盈利状况不会有太大影响。但如果日圆兑美元一直保持在较高的汇率水平，它们可就吃不消了。
“日圆升值肯定会对业务产生负面影响”，日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)发言人杰瑞?斯班(Gerry Spahn)说。该公司原先根据1美元兑120日圆的汇率预期来制定利润目标，而美元每下跌1日圆，公司的经营利润就会减少100亿日圆（合8,920万美元）。斯班说，“到目前为止，汇率变动还没有对公司实现利润目标构成影响，因为美国市场汽车销量的增长可能会抵消汇率变动造成的损失”。
三菱电机(Mitsubishi Electric Corp.)称，如果日圆升至1美元兑100日圆，公司就不得不调整盈利目标了。鉴于工厂设备销售额增长，三菱电机周一刚刚将今年的净利润目标上调了一倍多。
松下电器产业公司(Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.)称，公司已经通过远期合约对后半年的汇率波动风险提前做出防范。上一财政年度，该公司实现收入7.5万亿日圆，其中有一半都是来自海外市场。这种远期合约使合约持有人有权在未来某个时间以某个指定的价格买入和卖出某种特定的证券。但松下电器发言人说，如果日圆强势成为长期的趋势，那公司的利润肯定就会受到影响了。不过，该公司大部分面向海外市场销售的产品已经实现在海外生产，所以汇率风险对公司的影响不会像从前那么严重。目前，松下电器只将等离子显示器等高端产品的生产保留在国内进行。
最近大量亚洲制造公司将业务转移至中国大陆，这深刻地改变了汇率波动对本地区企业的影响力。比如说，韩国对中国的出口量最近已超过了它对美国的出口。虽然一些产品专门瞄准迅速增长的中国国内市场，但多数产品被运往韩国企业在中国开设的工厂。三星电子等很多韩国公司都在中国经营业务，利用中国低成本的优势降低公司的生产成本。
三星电子从全世界采购元件，这无形之中对汇率波动风险形成了内在对冲机制。韩圆升值的时候公司的出口收入可能减少，但与此同时从美国等地进口元件时，这些元件的价格也因为韩圆的升值而显得便宜了，得失两相抵消。公司发言人James Chung说，外汇市场的波动并一定会导致公司更改经营计划，“但我们会密切关注汇率的走势”。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)周二将三星电子股票的评级从“买进”下调至“持有”，并称韩圆升值是导致其评级被下调的原因之一。
台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)称，汇率波动短期内对公司影响有限，这一定程度上是由于美元贬值使公司从海外购买昂贵设备时需支付的价格降低。“若美元兑日圆和新台币持续走软，那影响就不可避免了”，台积电发言人J.H. Tzeng说，“但我们目前还不明确到底是什么样的影响”。Tzeng说，“我们的生产不属于劳动密集型，无法利用大陆低廉的劳动力成本，所以公司不大可能将大量生产转移至中国大陆”。不过，台积电今年年底前计划在大陆新设一家工厂。
