GM's Plan: It Could Work, If . . .
Investor enthusiasm for General Motors Corp.'s plan to shrink its labor force is tempered by questions about how many workers will take buyouts and about the still-clattering parts under the hood of the struggling auto maker.
GM, its No. 1 supplier Delphi Corp. and the United Auto Workers union rolled out a plan yesterday to offer early retirement packages and buyouts to as many as 131,000 employees at the two firms. GM's market share has crumbled in recent years and the world's biggest auto maker lost $10 billion last year. Delphi filed for bankruptcy-court protection in October.
If thousands of employees take the buyout, GM's long-term pension and health-care burdens as well as its current payroll costs could be lightened significantly.
Under the plan, employees who qualify for retirement given their years of service would have the option of taking a $35,000 payout to retire, keeping their full post-retirement pension, health-care and insurance benefits. Employees who don't qualify for retirement could take payouts of as much as $140,000, depending on their tenure, to leave the company and give up their post-retirement benefits.
Without knowing how many employees will take the buyout, what payout the takers will qualify for and how many will give up lucrative benefits in retirement, it is tough to estimate how much the deal will quiet persistent chatter of a possible bankruptcy-court filing by GM, analysts say.
One thing is abundantly clear: GM is one of the most unloved companies on Wall Street. Despite being the world's No. 1 auto maker in sales volume, its $12.4 billion market value is a fraction of Toyota Motor Corp.'s $177.2 billion market value and is near that of much smaller rivals like Fiat, at $13 billion, and India's Tata Motors, at $7.4 billion. For that reason, contrarian investors likely will give GM a long look. But uncertainties abound before and after this payout offer.
GM shares rose 5.5% Tuesday as investors anticipated the labor deal, and the shares were up another cent, to $22.01, in 4 p.m. composite trading yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange. They remain down more than 20% over the past year. GM's bonds rose in early trading, but were down slightly by the end of the day. Its 8.375% bonds due in 2033 slipped 1 1/4 point to trade at 74.25 cents on the dollar and are now at about the same level as a week ago, according to data from MarketAxess. The bonds of GM's financing unit, General Motors Acceptance Corp., were little changed.
"It's a great step, but at this point we don't know how many employees will raise their hand and take the retirement package," said Shelly Lombard, a bond analyst covering the auto sector at New York-based researcher Gimme Credit. "So it's hard to estimate how much it will cost GM or how much they will ultimately save."
Another wrinkle is that wage and benefit negotiations with the UAW for 13,000 Delphi workers -- beyond this buyout offer -- continue. Because of all the variables, Ms. Lombard says she hasn't done much number-crunching on the deal.
"I'm not sure anybody can really determine what the economic impact will be at this point," says John Novak, a stock analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago.
GM spokeswoman Toni Simonetti declined to disclose the total financial impact of the buyouts on GM. "We will disclose the financial impact, but we're not in a position to do that," Ms. Simonetti said, noting that the deal doesn't resolve all issues for GM.
If enough employees take buyouts to quell fears about GM's viability down the road, that could help speed a sale of a majority stake in GMAC to raise cash as GM tries to restructure its business.
Groups led by two different private-equity firms have made bids for the unit topping $11 billion. Negotiations continue, according to people familiar with the situation.
Moody's Investors Service auto analyst Bruce Clark said in a note that GM's cash costs and savings in the proposed agreement's first year would have a "very modest net positive impact" on the firm's operating cash flow. But in subsequent years, those cash savings should be more material, he added.
GM's ratings remain under review for a possible downgrade by Moody's, pending the auto maker's ability to file financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the rating agency's assessment of those financials. Last week, GM told the SEC its annual report would be late. Moody's has a below-investment-grade rating of B2 on GM.
The sudden retirement of tens of thousands of GM workers would be good news for GM's U.S. pension plan, because it would reduce the pension obligation that the company recorded on the assumption they would spend a full career on the job.
The reduction in pension liability would reduce GM's pension expense, which in turn would boost income. But GM says it can't estimate the potential reduction in pension liability until it gets a better sense of how many workers accept buyouts.
The reduction in pension liability would improve the U.S. pension plan's funding situation. At the end of 2005, the U.S. pension plan for hourly and salaried workers had a surplus of $6 billon, according to GM.
The company declines to disclose the current size of the U.S. plan, which had $91 billion in assets at the end of 2004. Updated figures will be included in the delayed annual report.
GM's buyout offer, which for some employees is contingent on giving up retiree health-care and life-insurance benefits, also would reduce the company's post-retirement-benefits obligations, which were $77.5 billion at the end of 2004. The company has said its health-care costs for current employees, former employees and their dependents added up to more than $1,500 per car and truck produced in 2004.
No matter how successful the company is at trimming labor costs and getting a good price for GMAC, however, it still faces its core challenge: selling more cars after years of market-share erosion to rivals like Toyota. While GM sells more vehicles than Toyota, investors have taken a jaundiced view of the U.S. auto maker's prospects due to slackening demand for its cars and its high pension and health-care costs.
Analysts expect GM to lose money again in 2006, according to Thomson Financial, but expect the company to become profitable over the next five years.
"It's a tenuous situation. GM's new cars have received good reviews, but at any time gasoline prices could spike back up and consumers would turn skittish," says Morningstar's Mr. Novak. "It's a very difficult situation to analyze with so many billion-dollar questions in the balance."
通用汽车特别退休计划让人费思量
通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)为削减员工数量而提出的提前退休和自愿离职计划让股票投资者一时间对其信心大涨，不过，对该计划的实施前景及其旗下一些子公司存在问题的担心让投资者的热情受到一定程度的打击。
通用汽车、其头号零部件供应商德尔福公司(Delphi Corp.)以及全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers)三方周三宣布，计划向两家公司的131,000名员工推出提前退休方案和一次性补偿自愿离职方案。身为世界最大汽车厂商的通用近年来市场份额日渐萎缩，去年的亏损达到100亿美元。而德尔福已在去年10月申请破产。
如果能有几千员工参加一次性补偿自愿离职方案，那么通用长期以来在退休金和保健计划上的财务负担以及工资成本将大大降低。
根据三方宣布的计划，按工作年限已符合退休条件的员工可以选择领取35,000美元后退休，同时保留全部退休金、医疗保健和保险福利。
未到退休年龄的员工可根据工龄领取最多140,000美元补偿金后离职，但同时需放弃正常退休可享受的福利。
分析师们表示，现在还很难估计这个计划能在多大程度上平息市场上有关通用可能申请破产的议论，因为还不知道会有多少员工申请自愿离职、申请的人能得到多少补偿以及会有多少人放弃优厚的退休福利。
但有一件事是再清楚不过了，那就是通用现在已是华尔街最不讨人喜欢的公司之一。虽然通用从销量来说是世界头号汽车生产商，但其市值只有区区124亿美元，只能与意大利的菲亚特(Fiat)和印度的Tata比试比试（菲亚特市值是130亿美元，Tata是74亿美元），与日本丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)的1,772亿美元相比简直少得可怜。
通用汽车股价周二受退休计划提振上涨5.5%，周三收盘再上涨1美分至22.01美元。其目前价位较一年前仍低20%多。
通用的债券在早盘交易中上扬，但在全天交易结束前略有下跌。据MarketAxess的数据，其中，2033年到期、票面利率8.375%的债券下跌1 1/4点至面值的74.25%，目前与一周前的水平持平。通用旗下金融子公司General Motors Acceptance Corp.的债券基本没有变动。
纽约研究公司Gimme Credit的汽车业债券分析师谢丽?伦巴迪(Shelly Lombard)说，这是通用的一个重大步骤，不过目前我们不知道会有多少员工愿意报名申请。因此，很难估计通用要为这个计划付出多少成本、也不知道最终能为通用节省多少开支。
另一个让人不安的问题是，通用与UAW在这次退休计划之外就德尔福13,000员工的工资和福利进行的谈判还在继续。伦巴迪说，由于所有这些不确定因素的存在，她还未对这项退休计划作过多的定量分析。
芝加哥晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)股票分析师约翰?诺瓦克(John Novak)说，他觉得目前阶段还没有人真正能对该计划对通用财务上的影响下结论。
通用汽车发言人拒绝透露自愿离职计划对通用财务状况的全部影响。她只说，公司将来会公布这方面的情况，但现在还不是时候。她还指出，这个计划并不能解决公司的所有问题。
如果有足够多的雇员申请自愿离职，将有助于缓解外界对通用未来能否继续生存下去的担忧，还将有助于通用加速出售GMAC子公司多数股份、为通用重组该业务筹措资金。
由两家私人资本运营公司分别牵头的团体已提出收购GMAC，出价超过110亿美元。据知情人士说，这方面的谈判正在继续。
穆迪投资服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)汽车分析师布鲁斯?克拉克(Bruce Clark)在一份报告中说，在通用实施这项退休计划第一年的过程，现金成本和节余对其经营性现金流合计下来的正面影响会比较有限。但在以后年份，这些现金节约应能发挥更大作用。
穆迪仍在考虑对通用的最新评级，目前来看有可能会下调，这将取决于通用向美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)提交的财务报告以及穆迪对报告指标的评估。通用上周曾向SEC表示，其年度报告可能会推迟。目前穆迪对通用的评级是投资级以下的B2。
对通用的美国退休金计划而言，有数万员工一下子退休是个好消息，它将大大减少通用在该计划上的资金投入，进而增加其利润。但通用表示，现在还不太清楚会有多少员工申请自愿离职，因此还估计不出因此能减少多少退休金债务。
退休金负担的减轻将大大改善通用退休金计划的财务状况。据通用提供的数据，截至2005年底，该公司领取小时工资和固定工资的员工的退休金计划帐户尚有60亿美元盈余。
该公司拒绝透露其美国退休金计划目前的资金规模。据有关数据，截至2004年底时，通用退休金帐户有910亿美元资产。最新年度报告将会提到这方面的数据。
通用提出的自愿离职计划对某些员工意味著要放弃作为正常退休者可以享受的医疗和人寿保险福利，这一点也将有助于减少该公司在退休福利方面的负担。2004年底通用的退休福利债务负担是775亿美元。该公司曾表示，2004年公司为现有员工、已退休员工及他们的受赡养人支付的医疗保健成本平均到每台汽车和卡车上是1,500美元。
不过，即使通用在削减劳动成本方面非常成功、或者能给GMAC卖个很好的价钱，它仍将面临一个最大的难题：面对丰田等竞争对手的入侵，它怎样才能卖出更多的汽车。
虽然通用的汽车销售量高于丰田，但投资者对通用的前景仍存有偏见，原因是市场对通用的汽车兴趣越来越小，而且该公司还要面对金额巨大的退休金和医疗保险成本。
据Thomson Financial的调查数据，分析师预计通用2006年将出现亏损，但接下来的5年将实现盈利。
晨星公司的诺瓦克说，情况很难把握。市场对通用的新车反应不错，但汽油价格随时都会大幅反弹，那样一来消费者对他们的车就会退避三舍。通用财务上存在很多动辄涉及数十亿资金的大问题，所以很难对它的情况给出确切的分析。
