Morgan's Chief Economist Warns Against Tariffs on Chinese Imports
BEIJING -- Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen S. Roach said Tuesday that a successful move by the U.S. Congress to pass sweeping tariffs on imports from China would be "close to economic suicide" for the U.S.
U.S. Senators Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) have proposed a bill that would impose 27.5% tariffs on all Chinese imports unless Beijing sharply revalues its currency. The senators, who are in China this week, have argued that Beijing keeps the yuan's value artificially low, making its exports unfairly cheap and exacerbating a huge U.S. trade deficit with China. A vote on the bill could come next week.
Mr. Roach, in Beijing for meetings with Chinese officials, told reporters Tuesday that he believes that bill would easily pass in the Senate, and could well pass in the House of Representatives as well. He also said he believes the U.S. Treasury Department appears increasingly likely to label China a currency manipulator during an upcoming review.
He said the tariffs proposed by Sens. Schumer and Graham would be a "horrible mistake" that could prompt Beijing to cut back on purchases of U.S. treasuries, leading to a weaker dollar and higher interest rates.
"I do think that the political climate with respect to U.S.-China trade tensions is as bad as I have ever seen it," said Mr. Roach, who said he's been observing the bilateral relationship for two decades. "At a time when the U.S. is more dependent on foreign capital than ever before, to impose tariffs not just on a major provider of goods, but a major lender of capital, I think would be close to economic suicide."
美国对中国商品征收关税无异于“经济自杀”
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席经济学家史蒂芬?罗奇(Stephen Roach)周二称，如果美国国会成功通过对中国进口商品全面征收关税的议案，这对美国来说“几乎等于是经济自杀”。
美国纽约州民主党参议员查尔斯?舒曼(Charles Schumer)和南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛?葛拉姆(Lindsey Graham)已经提议，倘若北京未能允许人民币大幅升值，将对所有中国进口商品征收高达27.5%的关税。
这两位参议员本周正在中国访问。他们认为，北京方面人为压低人民币汇率，导致了中国出口商品处于不合理的低价，并加剧了美国对中国的巨额贸易逆差。
对这项议案的投票将于下周进行。
罗奇目前正在北京与中国官员会晤。他于周二向记者表示，他认为议案很容易在参议院通过，也会顺利在众议院通过。
他还表示，他认为美国财政部在即将进行的审查中将中国列为汇率操纵国的可能性越来越大。
罗奇称，舒曼和葛拉姆提议的关税将成为一个“可怕的错误”，可能促使北京减少购买美国国债，导致美元走软、利率走高。
“我确实认为美中贸易紧张局势的政治气氛处于前所未有的糟糕状态，”罗奇称。他说，他对美中双边关系的研究已有二十年。
罗奇表示，“在美国前所未有地依赖外资的时候，对不仅是主要商品供应国、而且还是主要资本借贷国的中国征收关税，我认为这几乎等于是经济自杀。”
