油价上涨对全球贸易失衡难逃其咎

Oil-Price Rises Have Contributed To Global Imbalances, Study Says

WASHINGTON -- The surge in oil prices has contributed to global imbalances and oil exporting countries should join the U.S., Asia and Europe in fixing those imbalances, a Treasury staff study says.

The study notes that the U.S.'s oil-import bill rose to $252 billion in 2005 from $104 billion in 2002. In the same period, Middle East countries' current account surplus -- the balance on trade and investment income with other countries -- rose to $218 billion from $30 billion. Saudi Arabia's surplus has reached 30% of gross domestic product.

Oil-price spikes have "relatively small, in some cases negligible, effects on global imbalances," write study authors T. Ashby McCown, L. Christopher Plantier and John Weeks. "In this case, however, the price increase has been sustained, and the impact on global imbalances has been significant."

Most of the focus at multilateral meetings between the U.S. and other countries on economic matters has been on three sources of imbalances: China's fixed-exchange rate; the U.S. budget deficit; and slow growth in Europe. The study, which doesn't represent official Treasury policy, says the rising surpluses of oil exporters must also be part of the debate. "Oil exporters will need to be part of the global adjustment process, just as emerging Asia, the United States, Japan and Europe need to play a role," the study says.

The correct policy action depends on the nature of the oil exporter, the study says. Some poorer exporters will spend most of their increased revenue on imports. Some countries with aging oil reserves like Norway, Russia and Oman, should spend their increased revenue "evenly over time." Large exporters should save money and pay down debt to protect against future price drops. If prices stay high, they should invest in projects with "high social rates of return in order to strengthen the economy, raise standards of living and assist with global adjustment of external imbalances."

The study offers little insight into how oil exporters' revenues are recycled into the financial markets. It cites a Bank for International Settlements study that could account for only 30% of the estimated increase in revenue of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since 1999. Of that 30%, two thirds have gone into major banks, and the remainder into a mixture of U.S. Treasurys and corporate assets, and to a lesser extent, German assets.

U.S. Treasury data indicate that between January 2003 and last September, "oil exporting countries made net purchases of $158 billion of long-term U.S. securities...and had net acquisitions of $113 billion of short-term U.S. securities and banking liabilities."

They may have also purchased such assets "indirectly through foreign intermediaries...Anecdotal evidence and historical experience suggest that oil-producer investments are also going into construction loans, regional stock markets, private-equity funds, and possibly hedge funds located outside the United States, which are difficult to track."
油价上涨对全球贸易失衡难逃其咎



美国财政部官员的一份研究报告显示，油价上涨已经成为导致全球贸易失衡的重要因素，石油出口国应该与美国、亚洲和欧洲国家一道，为调整贸易失衡贡献力量。

研究指出，美国2005年石油进口额已从2002年的1,040亿美元升至2,520亿美元。与此同时，中东国家的经常项目盈余则从300亿美元升至2,180亿美元。沙特阿拉伯的盈余甚至达到了国内生产总值(GDP)的30%。

该报告作者阿什比?麦科恩(T. Ashby McCown)、克里斯托弗?普朗捷(L. Christopher Plantier)、和约翰?威克斯(John Weeks)表示，通常情况下油价的上涨对全球贸易失衡只会产生相对很小的影响，有时候甚至可以忽略不计。“但这一次，油价始终居高不下，已经对全球贸易失衡造成了严重影响。”

该报告不代表美国财政部官方政策。

美国与其他国家之间有关经济问题的多边会议往往将焦点放在了导致失衡的如下3种因素：中国的固定汇率制、美国的预算赤字以及欧洲的经济放缓。但报告指出，石油出口国的贸易顺差增长也应被列入讨论范围。报告称，石油出口国应该与新兴的亚洲国家、美国、日本和欧洲一道，为解决全球失衡问题发挥应有的作用。

报告指出，判断石油出口国的政策举动是否恰当应考虑到各国的具体情况。一些较为贫穷的出口国应该将大部分的新增收入花在进口上。而像挪威、俄罗斯、阿曼这类拥有成熟石油储备的国家则应细水长流，均衡支配他们的收入。石油出口大国应该储备一部分收入，同时偿还债务，以预防未来油价下跌。如果油价保持稳定，他们应投资一些具有较高社会回报率的项目，巩固经济发展，提供人们生活水平，并协助解决全球外部失衡的问题。

报告没有深入分析石油出口国的收入如何再循环到金融市场中。它援引国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的一份报告称，重新流入金融市场的资金可能只占石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)1999年至今以来新增收入的30%。在这30%中，有三分之二流入了大型银行，其余部分用于购买美国国债和企业资产，还有一小部分投资到了德国资产中。

美国财政部的数据显示，2003年1月至去年9月间，石油出口国净买入1,580亿美元长期美国债券……净买入1,130亿美元短期美国债券和银行证券。

他们可能是通过一些外国机构间接地购入了这类资产。一些消息及历史数据显示，产油国的投资还流入了建筑贷款、地区性股票市场、私人资本运营公司等，可能还包括美国以外的对冲基金，这方面的数据并不容易跟踪。

美国能源技术领域风险投资呈上升趋势
Energy Technology Wins Bigger Slice Of Venture Capital

Funding for energy-technology companies rose to 4.2% of total venture-capital investments in the U.S. during 2005, from 3.3% a year earlier, as the rapidly growing sector continued to attract investor attention, according to a new survey.

Much of the $917 million in funding went to so-called clean-energy companies such as solar-power firms, which received $156 million in venture money, and fuel-cell makers, which received $86 million, according to the survey by Nth Power LLC, a venture-capital firm based in San Francisco, and Clean Edge Inc., a market-research firm in San Francisco. The annual survey is to be released today.

Driven by growing demand for more-reliable and more-affordable alternatives to fossil fuels, which have been soaring in cost amid political volatility abroad, energy-technology as a percentage of total venture-capital investments has more than quadrupled from 1999 when it stood at just less than 1%, according to the survey. The sector has been further boosted by comments from President Bush in his State of the Union address in January, in which he called for more renewable energies such as biofuels to help wean the U.S. off oil.

"Right now, there is sort of a perfect storm lining up behind clean energy," said Ron Pernick, co-founder and principal of Clean Edge.

The sector isn't without its challenges. Skeptics say neither wind nor solar power can compete as well with conventional energy sources without government support, even though industry officials argue the cost gap between alternative energy and conventional energy is narrowing.

Clean-energy companies also face logistical issues. Many solar-energy companies, for example, have been unable to keep up with demand because of shortages of silicon used to make the solar-power cells. Likewise, about five million automobiles have been sold in the U.S. that are designed to run on ethanol gasoline or conventional gasoline, but there are only about 600 ethanol-fueling stations to provide the alternative fuel, according to Clean Edge officials.

Industry executives say such problems are just growing pains. They say clean energy has a bright future, in part because there is now so much political support for alternatives to conventional energy sources. California, New York and several other states have recently embarked on clean-energy programs, and more are being undertaken overseas, including in China.

Clean Edge forecasts that by 2015 biofuels, solar, wind and fuel cells will more than quadruple in annual sales to $167 billion, from about $40 billion in 2005.
美国能源技术领域风险投资呈上升趋势



最新调查显示，能源技术行业的迅速增长正吸引著越来越多投资者的关注，投向该领域的风险资金也在不断增加。2005年，美国能源技术领域的风险投资额达到9.17亿美元，占当年风险投资总额的比例从前一年的3.3%上升至4.2%。

在这9.17亿美元中，有很多资金投向了太阳能公司和燃料电池公司等所谓清洁能源企业。据位于旧金山的风险投资公司Nth Power LLC和市场调查公司Clean Edge Inc.联合进行的年度调查显示，其中，太阳能企业获得的投资为1.56亿美元，燃料电池企业为8,600万美元。

人们对除煤炭之外的来源更可靠且价格更容易承受的其他替代能源的需求越来越高，在此推动下，自1999年以来，对能源技术的风险投资在全部风险投资中的比例增长了三倍多，1999年时的比例还不足1%。

而今年1月份布什总统在《国情咨文》(State of the Union)中的讲话更是给该行业带来进一步的提振。布什在讲话中呼吁采用更多可再生能源，减轻对石油的依赖。

Clean Edge联席创始人兼负责人罗恩?波尼克(Ron Pernick)说，清洁能源领域未来将面临一场“完美风暴”。

但这一领域也并非万无一失。持怀疑态度的人士说，如果没有政府的支持，无论是风力发电还是太阳能发电都不能与传统的能源资源相抗衡，虽然业内人士声称，替代能源与传统能源的成本差距日渐缩小。

清洁能源公司还面临著配套供应方面的问题。比如，许多太阳能公司就因为用于制造太阳能电池的硅材料短缺而难以满足需求。

同样地，在美国市场售出的可使用乙醇汽油和传统汽油两种燃料的汽车有500万辆，但据Clean Edge说，全国能提供乙醇汽油的加油站只有大约600家。

业内人士说，这类问题正变得越来越严重。他们说，清洁能源前途光明在一定程度上是因为现在政府对替代能源的政策支持。加利福尼亚、纽约和其他几个州最近都启动了清洁能源计划，而其他国家也在开展清洁能源项目，比如中国。

据Clean Edge预测，到2015年，生物燃料、太阳能、风能和燃料电池的销售额将较2005年的大约400亿美元增长逾期三倍，达到1,670亿美元。

“天然气制油”首次投产
Natural gas offers hope to oil companies

A novel way to create an ultra-clean fuel for cars that uses natural gas instead of oil is on the verge of rapid growth, analysts say, driven by soaring oil prices and a thirst for alternative fuels.


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Oil companies are investing billions of dollars in the nascent technology, called “gas-to- liquids” or GTL, which can be used to produce quality diesel and a range of other products normally derived from crude.

The process was developed in Nazi Germany and apartheid South Africa but is about to be tested on a commercial scale for the first time in a few weeks’ time, when the largest plant so far opens in Qatar.

The Oryx GTL plant, a joint venture between South Africa’s Sasol and Qatar Petroleum, is being closely watched by competitors and investors looking for the next big thing in energy.


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Gas-to-liquids technology or GTL represents a way to turn remote natural gas fields into highly valuable products.

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“For a variety of reasons, it would appear that the GTL industry is at an inflection point,” said Frank Harris, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, the Scotland-based international oil consultancy. “If Oryx is successful combined with some of the other projects in the works, and this new paradigm for the oil price, it could be a huge catalyst for GTL.” Wood Mackenzie believes the next ten years will see more than $40bn invested in GTL plants