Soaring cost of homes turns spotlight on renting
John, a chiropractor in Los Altos, California, has just committed the financial equivalent of heresy. To the surprise of many of his friends, he has defied the cult of home ownership, selling his historic five-bedroom house in favour of renting.
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"I don't feel that house prices can support more appreciation and will probably drop back for the next few years, so it seemed the right time to cash out," he says. "We pay about 40 per cent less in rent than our mortgage and don't have to spend a cent on repairs."
John's decision may fly in the face of conventional wisdom but in many US property hotspots the financial logic of renting is becoming increasingly compelling. For those unlucky enough to have missed the stunning appreciation of house prices over the past few years, the rationale to buy now is shaky at best.
An exhaustive survey of the US housing market by HSBC - "A froth-finding mission" - has highlighted the appeal of renting in many parts of the US.
"It's fairly common to say that renting is like throwing money down the drain, but people forget that there is a lot of that in owning too," says Ian Morris, an economist at HSBC. "There is not a lot of difference between paying rent to a landlord or interest to a bank."
Even taking account of the generous tax subsidy that allows Americans to deduct their mortgage interest payments from taxable earnings, new homeowners are paying an increasingly hefty premium over renters. The annual cost of home ownership in Los Angeles, for example, is now more than double the cost of renting.
LA homeowners have long been paying more than renters, says Mr Morris, but the premium for owning is now 40 per cent more than its average over the past three decades. The figures for many of the other leading US property markets are no less alarming.
In response to such figures, defenders of the property market make the following points. First, homeowners not only reap capital gains when their property rises in value, they also accumulate equity each month through their principal payments. Second, while rents climb higher, the real value of mortgage payments, which are typically fixed, are eroded by inflation and eventually disappear once the capital is repaid.
HSBC's research shows that even removing capital repayments from mortgages, new homeowners in many areas will still be left paying a large premium. In San Francisco or Honolulu, annual ownership costs are 68 and 73 per cent greater even on an interest-only mortgage - a riskier mode of borrowing that has become popular in richly valued property markets.
To make property ownership in many of these markets worthwhile, owners would need to see extremely strong house price rises over the next seven years. Taking into account the added risks of home ownership, HSBC has calculated that prices would need to rise by 10 per cent a year in Palm Bay Florida, 8.5 per cent in Washington DC and 8.2 per cent in Denver - far more than the 20-year averages. The chance of falling real home prices is less outlandish than most assume. Those buying a house in Washington DC in 1989, when prices started to slide in real terms, would have had to wait until 2001 to see a capital gain.
There is even a chance that such calculations are slightly skewed in favour of home ownership. These figures assume that home owners are deducting mortgage interest payments from their taxes and that they pay a marginal rate of 30 per cent. However, only a third of Americans itemise their tax deductions and thus fail to take advantage of the tax break. In addition, many living in California or New York are caught by the Alternative Minimum Tax - a parallel tax system for high earners. This tax system eats into the tax deduction for housing, further chipping away at the benefits of home ownership.
The benefits of home ownership do eventually reassert themselves if you hold on to houses for long enough, even in the most highly priced markets, says Mr Morris. Assuming house prices remain steady, you would need to hold a house in LA for 11 years before the costs equalled those of renting. In Washington DC it would take 12 years to break even.
"Buying remains an obvious choice in large swathes of the US, but in the high-value areas the logic has swung decisively in favour of renting," says Mark Zandi, chief analyst at Economy.com. "Given the high transaction costs in the US, it may only make sense for many if you have a horizon of 10 years or more."
The number of Americans coming to a similar conclusion has been on the rise. According to the confidence survey from the University of Michigan, close to 30 per cent of Americans now think it is a bad time to buy - higher than at any point since the early 1980s.
Even so, housing experts say the temptations of home ownership will remain irresistible. "Home ownership remains a potent symbol of success in America," says Nic Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. "Renters tend to have lower social status in the eyes of many Americans."
It is easy to assume this is natural. But it is much less the case in, for example, Germany, where homeowners are often considered spiessig or petit bourgeois. Even Hans Stimmann, head of Berlin's city planning department, has chosen to rent rather than buy.
In the US, the cult of ownership is such that John's gamble of selling his house and waiting for prices to fall is unlikely to become a popular punt. But it may pay off.
卖掉住房改租房
美
国加州洛斯阿尔托斯(Los Altos)的脊椎指压按摩师约翰(John)刚刚在财务方面做了件另类之举。令他许多朋友感到惊讶的是，他违背了拥有房屋产权的传统信条，卖掉了其具有历史情调的5居室住房，转而开始租房。
“我认为房价的上涨空间不会太大，反而很有可能在未来数年内下跌，所以目前似乎是卖房兑现的好时机，”他表示。“我们现在付的房租要比按揭贷款月供少大约40%，而且还不用在维修方面花一分钱。”
约翰的决定也许违背了传统理念，但在美国许多房地产热点地区，租房的财务逻辑正日益引起人们的关注。对于那些不幸错失过去几年房价飙升良机的人而言，现在买房的想法颇为不妥。
汇丰(HSBC)对美国房地产市场进行了“寻找泡沫行动”(A froth-finding mission)详尽调查，揭示了租房在美国许多地区的吸引力。
付房租和付利息没有太多差别
“租房就像拿钱打水漂的说法相当普遍，但人们忘记了买房在很大程度上也是这样，”汇丰经济学家伊恩?莫里斯(Ian Morris)表示。“向房东付房租和向银行付利息之间没有太多差别。”
即便考虑到慷慨的税收补贴允许美国人将其按揭利息从应纳税收入中扣除，新的房屋业主还是比租房者多花越来越多的钱。例如，目前在洛杉矶拥有一套房屋而每年支付的成本比租房成本高出一倍多。莫里斯表示，洛杉矶房屋业主的支出长期以来一直高于租房者，但目前两者的差额比过去30年的平均值高出40%。美国其它主要地产市场的数据也同样令人担忧。
对此，地产市场的拥护者作出以下反驳：首先，房屋业主不仅能在地产升值时获得资本增值，还能通过每月偿还本金来累积房屋资产。其次，当租金攀升时，按揭还款（通常是定额）的实际价值会因通货膨胀而下降，而且有朝一日还清贷款，就再也没有按揭支出。
汇丰的研究表明，即便不将本金还款计算在按揭之内，许多地区的新屋业主所需支付的费用仍然远远高于租房费用。在旧金山和檀香山，房屋业主即便是采用只付利息的按揭贷款，每年的成本也比租房分别高出68%和73%。只付利息按揭是一种风险较高的贷款形式，在高价位的地产市场中颇受欢迎。
房价可能下跌
在许多这样的地产市场上，业主要想使手中的房产物有所值，未来7年里的房价涨幅必须极为强劲才行。汇丰计算，如将拥有房产的额外风险考虑在内，弗罗里达州棕榈滩的房价每年可能需要上涨10%，华盛顿需要每年上涨8.5%，丹佛每年上涨8.2%才行――这些数字均远远高出20年平均涨幅。实际房价下跌的可能性，并不象多数人设想的那么离谱。那些1989年在华盛顿购房的人（当时，华盛顿的实际房价开始下跌），不得不等到2001年才看到资本增值。
上述计算结果甚至有可能略微倾向主张购房的一边。这些数据假定，房屋业主从他们的税款中扣除了按揭利息还款，还假设他们支付30%的边际税率。不过，目前仅有三分之一的美国人将他们的扣税项目逐一列出，如此一来，（大多数美国人）并没有享受税收减免优惠。此外，许多住在加州或纽约的人还受到替代最低税额(Alternative Minimum Tax)体制的影响。这是一种针对高收入者的平行税收体系，部分抵消了购房减税优势，从而进一步削弱了拥有房产的好处。
莫里斯表示，即便是在房价最高的市场，如果你拥有房产的时间足够长，其好处最终也会显现出来。假设房产价格保持稳定，你在洛杉矶持有房产11年即可令购房成本与租房成本持平。在华盛顿，要达到两者持平需要12年。
购房至少要有10年打算
“在美国大部分地区，买房依然是显而易见的选择，但在那些房价高的地区，财务逻辑肯定倾向于租房，”Economy.com首席分析师马克?赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示。“美国的购房交易成本高昂，因此对于许多人来讲，只有你能坚持10年或更久，买房投资才有意义。”
作出类似结论的美国人越来越多。密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心调查显示，接近30%的美国人认为现在不是买房的好时机。这一比例是上世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。
尽管如此，房产专家表示，拥有房产的诱惑仍将难以抗拒。“在美国，拥有房产依然是成功的有力象征，”哈佛大学住房研究联合中心(Joint Center for Housing Studies)主任尼克?雷特西纳斯(Nic Retsinas)称。“在多数美国人眼中，租房人的社会地位比较低。”
人们很容易认为，这种情况很自然。但在德国等国家，事实并非如此，在德国，房产拥有者通常被视为小资产阶级。连柏林城市规划部门主管汉斯?史蒂曼(Hans Stimmann)都选择租房，而非买房。
在美国，人们狂热追求拥有房产，像约翰这样卖掉房子等待价格下跌的赌博不太可能流行开来。不过，此举可能会获得回报。
