Heed the warnings of a new cold warin Asia
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union 15 years ago, the phrase "cold war" - along with the "free world" and "eastern bloc" labels for each side - have largely been confined to historical discourse. These terms, suggesting a titanic clash of ideas between two clearly defined camps, are now making a disturbing comeback, usually in connection with China.
When they are not thinking about the Middle East and the threat of Islamic extremism, hawks in Washington compare the strategic and ideological challenge of China's rise today with the threat posed to the west by the Soviet Union in its 1960s heyday. Given the recent rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow, there is also a plausible argument to be made that the US superpower will soon be waging a cold war against a new "axis of authoritarianism".
Relations between Russia and China - each has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and together they dominate the Eurasian landmass - have not been so warm since the 1950s.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has just had his fifth meeting in 12 months with Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart. On a visit to Beijing last week, Mr Putin made a $10bn (£5.7bn) promise to build two pipelines from Russia to supply China with the gas it urgently needs.
The two countries have recently boosted trade, held a joint military exercise, resolved the territorial disputes along their 4,300km border and found a common interest in curbing the influence of the US superpower. In the words of Russia expert Bobo Lo of the Chatham House think-tank in London, China and Russia have developed a "genuinely businesslike strategic partnership".
Their strategy, furthermore, in many ways directly contradicts the US National Security Strategy released this month. The opening sentence of the US document - "It is the policy of the United States to seek and support democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world" - is anathema to Beijing and Moscow.
From Belarus to Burma, both governments support dictators, military juntas and authoritarian rule. A Pentagon report alleging that the Russian ambassador in Iraq gave Saddam Hussein intelligence about US military strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq will do little to inspire western confidence in Russia.
US policymakers alarmed by the prospect of a new "eastern bloc" can draw comfort from the continuing western focus of both Russian and Chinese foreign policy and from the lingering antipathy between the Russian and Chinese peoples.
Most Russians see themselves as Europeans; many harbour atavistic fears that Asiatic hordes will one day sweep across the border to reclaim ancient Chinese territory in what is now the underpopulated Russian far east. Previous Sino-Russian announcements of ambitious energy schemes have produced few results.
Globalisation and the resulting linkages between the Chinese, Russian and western economies also reduce the likelihood of another confrontation between rival superpowers.
In an article this month entitled "Is China the nemesis in a new cold war?" the US-based Asia scholar Emmanuel Pastreich concludes that the US-China contest, far from being a cold war, is akin to the global struggle over markets, technology and cultural authority between the US and its ally Britain from 1910 to 1970.
Fears of a US-China cold war, however, are not confined to the fringes of US politics. James Baker, the former US Treasury secretary and secretary of state, criticised US trade protectionists and warned an audience of business leaders in Hong Kong last week that economic ties alone were no guarantee of peace, as shown by the "golden age" of interdependence before the first world war.
"Should Washington and Beijing slip into confrontation, everybody will lose," he said. "It would be nothing less than tragic were the world, after emerging from one cold war, to plunge into another." We are not there yet, but this is a warning both sides should heed 美国将与中俄爆发新冷战？
自15年前苏联解体以来，“冷战”这个词与代表对立双方的“自由世界”和“东方集团”等词汇一起，已在很大程度上被限制在历史话题中。然而，这些曾经代表着界限分明的两大阵营之间强烈意识形态冲突的词汇，如今又令人不安地重现江湖，通常被用在与中国有关的场合。
华盛顿鹰派人士在考虑中东问题和伊斯兰极端主义的威胁之余，常把当今中国崛起所带来的战略和意识形态挑战，与苏联在20世纪60年代全盛时期对西方的威胁进行比较。鉴于北京和莫斯科之间最近表现出的睦邻友好关系，似乎还可以作出一个看似合理的论断：美国这个超级大国很快将会对新的“威权轴心”(axis of authoritarianism)发动一场冷战。
作为两个均为联合国安理会(United Nations Security Council)常任理事国、领土总和占据欧亚大陆可观面积的国家，中俄关系目前正处于20世纪50年代以来最好的时期。
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)刚刚与中国国家主席胡锦涛进行了12个月内的第五次会晤。在上周访问北京过程中，普京作出100亿美元的承诺，将从俄罗斯建设两条管线，向中国供应其急需的天然气。
两国近年加强了贸易往来，进行了联合军事演习，解决了4300公里边境线上的领土争端，并在遏制美国超级大国影响力方面找到了共同利益。用伦敦查塔姆研究所(Chatham House)俄罗斯问题专家波布?劳(Bobo Lo)的话来讲，中国和俄罗斯发展了一种“真诚务实的战略伙伴关系”。
更进一步说，它们的战略在许多方面与本月公布的美国国家安全战略(US National Security Strategy)形成直接对立。这份美国文件的开头语――“美国的政策，是在所有国家和文化中，寻求并支持民主运动和民主机构，最终目标是结束我们这个世界中的专制主义”――是北京和莫斯科所憎恨的。
从白俄罗斯到缅甸，中俄两国都支持独裁政府、军人政权和威权统治。美国国防部一份报告称，在美国准备入侵伊拉克之际，俄罗斯驻伊拉克大使曾向萨达姆?侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)提供了关于美国军事战略的情报。这份报告无助于鼓励西方对俄罗斯的信心。
但是，那些担心出现新“东方集团”的美国决策者们，或许可从中俄两国外交政策“向西看”的持续方针、及中俄两国人民之间挥之不去的敌对情绪中得到一些安慰。
大部分俄罗斯人将自己视为欧洲人；与他们的先辈一样，许多俄罗斯人担心亚洲游牧民族有朝一日会席卷边界，索回曾经属于中国的领土，即如今人烟稀少的俄罗斯远东地区。中俄曾经多次发布雄心勃勃的能源计划宣言，最终成果寥寥。
全球化及由此在中国、俄罗斯和各西方经济体之间形成的联系，也降低了超级大国之间再次出现对立的可能性。
在本月发表的一篇题为《中国是新冷战之敌吗？》(Is China the nemesis in a new cold war?)的文章中，驻美国的亚洲学者贝一明(Emmanuel Pastreich)指出，美中竞争远非冷战，而是类似于美国与其盟友英国从1910年至1970年在市场、科技和文化权威方面进行的全球争夺。
然而，对美中冷战的担忧不仅仅限于美国政界边缘。美国前任财政部长和国务卿詹姆斯?贝克(James Baker) 上周在香港对美国贸易保护主义者提出了批评，并向由商业领袖组成的听众警告称，正如第一次世界大战之前各国互相依赖的“黄金时代”所表明的那样，仅靠经济联系并不能保证和平。
“美国和中国如果陷入对抗，所有人都会遭受损失，”他说。“对全球而言，那将是一场悲剧，刚刚摆脱一次冷战，又陷入另一次冷战。”我们现在还没走到那个地步，不过，这是一个双方都应留意的警告。
