NBC
Horizon Media---Adgate, Brad---Director of Research
>> fox television network will roll out six programs in june to lure viewers while rivals air% -reruns. cable networks are using summer months to introduce new shows and grab audiences from cbs, abc, nbc and fox. the broadcasters showed off new programs this week as they began booking advertising sales for next season. wall street expects the top six networks to book close to $9.5 billion in ad sales, about the same as last year. for more on this story, we bring in brad adgate, director of research at horizon media joining me on set. we were chatting during the commercial break and you were talking about perhaps we may be watching the death of the sitcom or at least a diminished role of the sitcom?
>> that’s true. since 1997, nbc had 18 sitcoms. this year nbc has four. and if you combine that with cbs and abc, the three of them have 18 sitcoms. so it’s not the western or variety shows of the 1950’s but reality shows have taken over the ability to get younger viewers.
>> and many of the best-known% -shows like “friends” and% “frasier” are wrapping so counting the number of sitcoms may belie the real truth that the ones still there are less popular than those disappearing.
>> and part of it has to do with the audience. a program like “arrested development” when they announced it was returning at fox, everybody gave an applause because a smartly-written situation comedy is rare these days.
>> rare because of the younger demographic is continually viewed as more desirable so they’re dumbing down shows for the younger audience?
>> i guess so and these people grew up with the “real world” on mtv and they like the reality show and voyeurism is a big trend and reality shows give the impression you’re spying on% -other people when you’re not.
>> we said in the introduction that many analysts expect the up-front ad season to be about the same this year as last year. is that what you expect?
>> yes. last year was atypical with the upfront done in three days and the increase of $9.3 billion and they didn’t have that great of a year. the networks command about half the audience now and the cable networks roughly the other half so ratings have been from flat to down and a brouhaha about young men not watching prime time of it last fall. so the networks have to prove themselves.%
>> which cable networks are taking most of the share?
>> most are coming from the second tier networks like the sci-fi channel, history channel, t.l.c. the big initiatives like -- networks like tnt and prime time are facing the same fraction fractionalization as the major networks have faced for years.
>> nbc has a fourth “law and order” ready for mid season and another “c.s.i.” for cbs.
>> they come from the same producer, jerry bruckheimer. it’s like taking a cluttered television landscape and making a spinoff like vanilla coke, taking a brand and giving it a spin off so viewers know what to expect.
>> isn’t there a danger when you do, for example, when abc took “who wants to be a millionaire” and started running it all the% -time and now i understand it’s back on prime time again with him, but is there a danger that you run this show and spin it off so much that you dilute its appeal?
>> sure. last night at the fox presentation gale berman said this wednesday is the last episode of “american idol” and year not going to see it again until january and there is a fear that you’ll saturate the viewing public and they’re protecting that.
>> tell us about the olympics this summer?
>> the olympics will air august 13 to 29, primarily on nbc but also on several other cable networks including usa and sci-fi. and i think what’s interesting, what nbc is doing with that is that rather than link the premiere of the new season in september, they’ll premiere it august 30 because they’ll promote a lot of the new shows so from monday through thursday 8:00 to 10:00, they’ll premiere shows that week because it makes no sense to premiere the shows and wait weeks and air them again so it is a 52-week season, not a 35-week season.
>> when we return, abc wants to add basketball to “monday night football” and we’ll have the details in this week’s “money &% -sports.”
