German Jobless Rate Drops,But Recovery Eludes Europe
German unemployment unexpectedly fell in June, the first good economic news in months, but other figures show overall conditions continue to deteriorate in Europe's largest economies.
Unlike the U.S., where a gradual recovery -- albeit a jobless one -- appears under way, the outlook for much of Europe is dimming, driven mostly by the downturn in Germany but also by weakness in France, Italy and elsewhere.
Germany's dire economic state was underscored by figures released Tuesday that showed German industrial production in May fell 0.7%, which was worse than expected and the third consecutive month of decline. The decrease, due mostly to the weak construction sector, is more evidence that the German economy most likely contracted in the second quarter and fell deeper into recession. The German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin predicted Tuesday that the economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter.
The government also received some positive economic news. Instead of continuing to rise as expected, the number of unemployed fell by a surprising 33,000 in June from a month earlier, lowering the unemployment rate to 10.6% from 10.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The German government embraced the development, attributing it to new labor-market policies, but cautioned it hardly signals a turnaround. "The surprising decline from May to June is a positive signal," Economics and Labor Minister Wolfgang Clement said. "That's the biggest [drop] in five years and is due to the government's labor-market reforms -- but the economy remains weak."
He has used the string of poor economic data in recent months to argue the government's case for pushing through a series of labor-market changes, including cutting unemployment benefits and loosening laws on protection against firing. Parliament, whose upper house is controlled by the opposition, will debate the measures in the coming months.
While not as bad off as Germany, other large European economies appear to be weakening as well, suggesting that conditions will worsen in the euro zone before they get better. France, the second-largest economy among those that share the euro, is now expected to grow by less than 1% this year and by about 2% next year, according to a report released Tuesday by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. As recently as April, the OECD predicted 1.2% growth this year and 2.6% in 2004. The International Monetary Fund also recently revised downward its growth predictions for France.
The OECD cautioned France about its spiraling deficit, which it warned in the report could exceed 3.5% of gross domestic product this year, well above the 3% limit allowed under the euro zone's fiscal rules. The French government is in the midst of fulfilling an election-campaign promise to cut taxes, which the OECD approved of as long as it is accompanied by spending cuts. Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, is expected to grow by less than 1% as well.
In Germany, the industrial-production figures are expected to worsen in the next months, in part due to a one-month strike by metal workers in eastern Germany last month that disrupted production by large auto makers such as Volkswagen AG and Bayerische Motoren Werke. Auto production plunged in June by 19% from a year earlier, according to the German Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
The decline in the German jobless figures was the second month in a row of improvement, following nine consecutive months of rising unemployment.
Still, economists cautioned that the numbers probably don't reflect an improvement in the economy, but rather a result of changing the definition of unemployment. Those who refuse to accept an opening, for example, are no longer classified as jobless. "It appears to have more to do with technical factors than with an underlying turnaround in the labor market," said Citigroup in a research note. The number of job vacancies, a reliable indicator of labor demand, continued to fall in the month.
德国就业人数增加，但经济形势仍在恶化
德国几个月来终于公布了乐观的经济数据，6月份的失业人数出乎意料地呈现下降，但其他数据仍显示，这个欧洲最大经济体的整体经济环境继续恶化。
与经济复苏似乎渐入佳境的美国不同，绝大多数欧洲国家的经济前景黯淡无光，主要是受德国经济低迷的影响，而法国、意大利以及其他地区低迷的经济同样对此起到雪上加霜的影响。
周二公布的数据凸现了德国严重的经济现状。数据显示，德国5月份的工业产值连续第三个月下降，降幅为0.7%，超过此前的预期水平。该数据还表明德国经济在第二季度可能呈现萎缩甚至滑落至衰退境地。建筑业的疲软是工业产值下降的主要原因。 驻柏林的德国经济研究所(German Institute for Economic Research)周二预计，德国第二季度的经济可能较上年同期下降0.1%。
但是，德国也有正面的经济消息。与失业人数增加的预期相反，德国6月份的失业人数意外地较上月减少3.3万人，经季节性调整后的失业率从10.7%降低到10.6%。德国政府肯定了就业市场已有所好转，但警告称，该数据很难表明德国经济已出现回升。
德国经济部长克莱门特(Wolfgang Clement)称，6月份失业人数下降是一个积极的信号，是近5年下降人数最多的月份，这应归功于政府的就业市场改革举措，但德国经济仍无起色。 克莱门特引用近几个月一系列低迷的经济数据来反驳政府为推动就业市场好转而采取的措施。这些措施包括削减失业福利和放宽解雇保护法。德国议会将在未来数月内讨论政府的上述改革措施。反对党占议会中联邦议院的多数席位。
尽管其他欧洲大国的经济并不像德国那样糟糕，但这些国家的经济似乎也非常低迷。这表明，欧元区经济状况在得以改善之前还将进一步恶化。经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 简称 OECD)周二公布的报告显示，预计欧元区第二大经济体－－法国今年的经济增长率将不足1%，明年将为2%左右。就在4月份，OECD尚预计法国今年的经济增长率将达到1.2%，明年达到2.6%。 国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)也在近期向下修正了对法国经济增长的预期水平。
OECD在报告中指出，应警惕法国不断增加的赤字规模，OECD预计法国今年的赤字占GDP比重将超过3.5%，高出欧洲制定的3%上限。目前，法国政府正在兑现其竞选时作出的减税承诺，如果在减税的同时能够削减开支，OECD将对此双手赞成。预计欧元区第三大经济体－意大利今年的经济增长速度同样不到1%。
预计未来数月，德国工业产值数据将进一步恶化，部分原因在于东德金属行业工人上月举行的为期一个月的罢工活动。罢工使如大众汽车(Volkswagen)和宝马汽车(BMW)等大型汽车生产商的生产陷于停顿。德国汽车生产协会(German Association of Automobile Manufacturers)公布的数据显示，与上年同期水平相比，6月份的汽车产量大幅减少19%。
在德国失业人数连续9个月呈上升之势后，6月份的失业人数连续第二个月呈现下降。德国劳工部称，政府最新推行的安置政策促成了就业市场的好转。例如，设立临时雇员机构，强制失业者兼职工作或从事短期工作。
然而，经济学家们警告称，这些数据可能并不表明经济已出现回升，而只是改变失业定义的结果。比如说，那些拒绝接受安排的失业者将不再被视为没有工作的人。花旗集团(Citigroup)在一份研究报告中称，失业人数的下降似乎更多的与技术因素有关，而非就业市场出现内在好转。就业需求的可靠指标－空缺职位数量6月份继续呈现减少。
