S&P Says Chinese Banks Need
Bailout Estimated at $500 Billion
China's state-owned banks urgently need a government bailout estimated at more than $500 billion -- 40% of the country's total gross domestic product in 2002 -- to help them deal with their bad loans, Standard & Poor's said in report issued Monday.
The report, entitled China Banking Outlook 2003-2004, said the sector is incapable of reducing its nonperforming loan ratio of nearly 50% on its own in the short term.
"China's 'Big Four' state-owned commercial banks are unlikely to reduce their ratios of NPLs to total loans to 15% by 2005 in line with the wishes of the central bank," S&P said.
"The country's banking sector, acting alone, will need at least 10 years and possibly as many as 20 to reduce its average NPL ratio to a more manageable 5%."
The report said the huge bad-debt burden renders the state banks technically insolvent and obstructs government plans to restructure the country's four large state-owned commercial banks -- Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China -- into shareholding companies.
"Fresh equity is needed if the Chinese banking system is to be placed on a sound commercial footing," the report said.
The report suggested that the state bank sector's bad-debt burdens continue to defy government efforts to reform the institutions along market-oriented lines.
Official statistics indicate that the average bad-debt ratio for all of China's banks stood at 19.8% at the end of 2002.
Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said last month that China's four large state-owned banks recorded a 1.99 percentage point decline in their average NPL ratio from the end of 2002 to 24.1% at the end of March. However, S&P said that official statistics seriously underestimate the scale of the bad-debt problem facing China's bank sector.
"Because China's banks rely on the subjective judgment of credit and loan officers in branches throughout the country, it is reasonable to assume the figures reported are likely to be understated," the report said. "The level of NPLs is [also] likely to be understated because of the highly politicized nature of statistical reporting in China."
S&P said the decline in bad loans at China's banks can also be partially attributed to a huge increase in lending by the bank sector in recent years.
标准普尔发表报告，为中国银行业把脉
标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor's)周一表示，中国银行业欲平安度过未来不可避免的经济下滑危机，现在就必须严把国有银行借贷关。报告同时指出，国有银行亟需政府5,000亿美元资金援助。
该机构周一警告称，中国银行贷款的增长速度超出了经济的增长速度，信贷市场面临过热的风险。央行已经采取措施控制银行贷款的供需，特别是对快速膨胀的房地产业的贷款。
标准普尔的信贷分析师Terry Chan认为，央行的举动表明当局开始意识到某些贷款流向了低产值创造项目。
在围绕标准普尔的一份最新报告--《中国银行业2003-2004展望》(China Banking Outlook 2003-2004)--召开的电话会议上，Chan指出，自1995年以来，国内非国有产业的信贷增长速度一直高于名义国内生产总值(GDP)的增长速度。
截至2002年底，中国非国有部门的信贷总量与GDP的比率估计超过138%，而1995年底仅为88%。
他说，信贷规模与名义GDP的比率的快速增长是贷款流向无产值创造或低产值创造领域的早期、公认的非定论性警报。
GDP自1995年以来一直低于信贷规模的事实足以引起注意，是国内信贷市场可能过热的警报。
他还说，信贷增长和GDP增长的不协调是受到1997-1998年亚洲金融危机影响的经济体的一个特点。
周正毅(Chau Ching-ngai)事件余波
在标准普尔发出警告一周前，中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)发出了指导文件，指示商业银行控制向房地产开发商的贷款，很明显此举是针对最近暴露的房地产市场丑闻。
香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)已对中银香港（控股）有限公司(BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd., H.BOC, 简称：中银香港 )发放给上海房地产大亨周正毅的贷款展开调查。这笔贷款被用来为周正毅购买香港上市公司上海地产控股有限公司(Shanghai Land Holdings Ltd., H.SLD, 简称：上海地产)控股股权提供资金。
央行还暗示不久可能调高国内商业银行的存款准备金比例，这对银行放贷构成威胁。
宽松的放贷政策导致中国银行业被不良贷款所困扰。
Chan认为越来越多的银行贷款发放给了私人企业和更广泛的领域，这是一个积极的方面，但贷款质量令人担忧。
中国银行业需要5,000亿美元援助资金
标准普尔的《中国银行业2003-2004展望》报告指出，中国国有银行急需获得政府提供估计超过5,000亿美元的援助资金，助其清理不良贷款。这笔巨资相当于中国2002年国内生产总值(GDP)的40%。
报告称，中国国有银行业没有能力在短期内单凭自身力量降低几乎达50%的不良贷款比率。
标准普尔说，中国四大国有商业银行不可能按照中国央行所期望的，在2005年前将不良贷款比率降低到15%。
报告指出，单靠银行业自身力量，至少需要10年，甚至有可能是20年时间，才能将银行业平均不良贷款比率削减至5%的更易于管理的水平。
报告说，巨额坏帐使国有银行在理论上已资不抵债，并阻碍了中国政府对四大国有商业银行的股份制改造。中国的四大国有商业银行是：中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)、中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)、中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)和中国银行(Bank of China)。
报告说，中国银行体系要想恢复健康运行，就必须获得新的资本金。
报告暗示，国有银行的坏帐负担仍在阻碍政府推动这些机构进行市场化改造的努力。
官方数据显示，截至2002年底，中国银行业平均不良贷款比率为19.8%。
中国银行业监督管理委员会(China Banking Regulatory Commission)主席刘明康上个月表示，截至3月底，四大国有商业银行的平均不良贷款比率降至24.1%，较2002年底下降了1.99个百分点。但标准普尔说，官方数据严重低估了中国银行业坏帐问题的严峻形势。
报告说，中国银行业主要靠全国各分行信贷业务员的主观估计来确定不良贷款比率，所以有理由推断数据有低估之嫌。另外，中国的统计数据有较强的政治色彩，所以，有可能没有反映出不良贷款严重程度的真实状况。
标准普尔说，银行放款数量最近几年大量增加，也可能在一定程度上使中国银行业的不良贷款比率下降。
(back)WRAP: China Must Tighten State Bank Sector Lending - S&P
China must tighten lending by state banks if the sector is to survive the inevitable future economic downturn, Standard & Poor's credit analyst Terry Chan said Monday.
The agency's warning Monday that lending in China is outstripping economic growth and that the credit market is in danger of overheating follows efforts by China's central bank to tighten the supply and demand for lending, in particular to the booming property sector.
"I think the authorities are coming around to (realizing)....some of the credit is being directed to less-than-productive purposes," Chan said the central bank's moves.
Speaking in a teleconference on a new S&P report entitled China's Banking Outlook 2003-2004, Chan said growth in state bank lending to the non-state business sector has outstripped nominal GDP growth since 1995.
Meanwhile, S&P said, the estimated ratio of credit extended to the nongoverment sector to GDP reached more than 138% by the end of 2002 from 88% at the end of 1995.
"Rapid growth of the ratio of credit to nominal GDP is an early, admittedly nonconclusive warning that credit is being directed to unproductive or underproductive activities," Chan said.
"The fact that GDP hasn't been catching up since 1995 is (a source for) quite a bit of concern (and) it is a warning sign...that credit may be overheating."
Chan said that a disparity in credit growth and GDP growth was a factor in economies affected by the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.
Follows Chau Ching-ngai Scandal
The warning comes just a week after the People's Bank of China issued a directive instructing commercial banks to curb lending to property developers, in an apparent reaction to an unfolding property market scandal.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has launched an investigation into loans made by BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd. (H.BOC) to Shanghai tycoon Chau Ching-ngai to finance the purchase of a controlling stake in Hong Kong-listed Shanghai Land Holdings Ltd. (H.SLD).
The central bank has also signaled that it may soon raise the amount of money domestic commercial banks are required to set aside as a proportion of their deposits, posing a threat to banks' outward credit flows.
China's bank sector can ill afford any nonperforming loan increase fueled by loose lending practices.
The bad debt ratio of state banks stands at an estimated nearly 50%, the S&P report said, compared with an end-2002 official figure of 19.8%.
The estimated cost of a government bailout to rid the banks' balance sheets of the bad debt is more than $500 billion, or 40% of the value of total gross domestic product in 2002, the report said.
"We see it as positive that loans are increasingly more to the private sector, broadly defined...(but) our concerns about the quality of lending...means that some of these loans may be of lesser quality," Chan said.
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