China's Trade Surplus Swells To Third Consecutive Record
BEIJING -- China's latest record trade surplus is fueling concerns over whether its government has the tools to reduce the imbalance.
China's customs administration said exports of goods in July exceeded imports by $14.6 billion, edging out the previous record monthly surplus of $14.5 billion in June. The July surplus, the third consecutive record in as many months, was driven by a 23% jump in exports from a year earlier. That outpaced the 20% rise in China's purchase of products from abroad.
The trade surplus -- now on track to reach an unprecedented $150 billion or so in 2006 -- has become a focal point for international concerns over China's rise, with the U.S. and European Union contending that they can't sustain such a huge imbalance in their trade with Beijing. The surplus also is aggravating domestic jitters that China's economy could spin out of control, as the surpluses cause cash to accumulate in the banking system and stimulate investment despite official attempts to rein it in.
Yet while there is a growing consensus the trade surplus is a problem, it is still far from clear what should be done to fix it. Many U.S. politicians and economists argue that a sharp strengthening of China's currency against the dollar would make its exports more expensive, thereby cutting sales and reducing the surplus.
However, the effects of such an appreciation might not be so easy to predict, in part because of the unique nature of China's trade. The majority of its exports actually come from companies backed by foreign investors. Having decided to do their manufacturing in China, they might not respond quickly to shorter-term policy changes.
"China's trade surplus is more a reflection of the continued reallocation of global manufacturing to China, rather than an intention of policy," says Qu Hongbin, an economist with HSBC. While foreign investment is off its peak, Mr. Qu says that unless there is a major decline, "the reality is that China is going to have to learn to live with this trade surplus for the foreseeable future. To use government policy to influence this is very difficult."
An appreciation of the yuan would mean not only that more dollars or euros would be needed to buy the same amount of Chinese currency, but also that each yuan could buy more foreign currency. Since many Chinese exports are made up largely of imported components and raw materials, a rise in the currency could actually lower exporters' costs. Some economists argue that exporters would be able to pass on much or all of those lower costs to customers, offsetting the effect that a stronger yuan would otherwise have on the final foreign-currency price of their goods.
The latest string of record surpluses have come despite a slight appreciation of the yuan. The Chinese currency has risen nearly 4% against the dollar since the de-facto dollar peg was scrapped in July 2005.
Chinese authorities, rather than focusing solely on the level of the yuan, are looking at broader imbalances in the economy that they believe contribute to the trade surplus.
"As part of a batch of policies, the exchange rate can play a certain role in adjusting the imbalance in the international balance of payments," the central bank said in its quarterly monetary-policy report, issued Wednesday. However, it emphasized that "the most fundamental way to solve the problem of a large balance-of-payments surplus is still to expand domestic demand, particularly consumption, and lower the savings rate."
Those aren't changes that can happen overnight. Authorities have been saying for some time that they want to encourage consumption and promote more imports. But the government hasn't made much progress so far in improving the social safety net and public services like education, which most observers believe would free Chinese households to spend more and save less.
Meanwhile, recent economic trends signal that China's trade surplus might even widen further. For instance, Beijing has rolled out a series of measures to slow bank lending and curb investment in infrastructure and new factories. If those efforts succeed, as some economists expect, imports of capital equipment and raw materials likely would fall -- increasing the gap with exports.
Moreover, many analysts are predicting the dollar will start to decline now that the U.S. Federal Reserve has paused in its campaign of interest-rate increases. Since the yuan still tends to track the dollar more than any other currency, a decline in the dollar could pull down the yuan against currencies like the euro and yen. "This will cause even larger trade surpluses," economists from J.P. Morgan Chase said in a research report Thursday.
政策手段难降中国贸易顺差
中国7月份的贸易顺差再创历史新高，这使人们愈发担心中国政府在降低贸易不平衡方面是否已无计可施。
中国海关总署称，7月份的商品出口额较商品进口额高出了146亿美元，刷新了6月份创下的145亿美元的贸易顺差月度最高历史纪录。7月份的出口额较上年同期跃升了23%，从而使中国的贸易顺差连续第三个月创出历史新高。相比之下，中国7月份的进口增长率只有20%。
如果不出意外，中国2006年的贸易顺差将达到前所未有的1,500亿美元左右，中国的贸易顺差状况已成为国际上忧心中国崛起之人的关注焦点，美国和欧盟声称，他们已无法承受自己的对华贸易存在如此巨大的逆差。贸易顺差也使中国国内担心经济失控的恐慌情绪进一步加重，因为贸易顺差导致银行体系积累的现金不断增加并刺激了投资行为，而中国政府目前正在努力抑制投资的过快增长。
虽然有越来越多的人开始同意将贸易顺差过大视为一个问题，但他们对究竟应采取何种措施来解决这一问题却远未形成清晰的思路。许多美国政客和经济学家声称，使人民币兑美元汇率大幅升值将增加中国的出口成本，从而可以起到减少出口、降低贸易顺差的作用。
不过，人民币大幅升值所起的效果可能并非那么容易预测，这一定程度上是中国对外贸易的独特性导致的。中国的大部分出口实际上来自外商投资企业。既然已决定在中国从事生产业务，这些企业可能不会对短期内的政策转变作出迅速回应。
汇丰(HSBC)的经济学家屈宏斌说：“中国的贸易顺差更多是全球制造业持续向中国转移的反映，而不是某种政策有意造成的结果。”他说，虽然外商投资中国的高峰期已过，但除非这类投资出现大幅下降，否则在可预见的未来中国都会持续维持贸易顺差局面，要通过政府政策来影响这一进程是十分困难的。
人民币升值意味著人民币对外币的购买力将比过去增大。鉴于中国的许多出口产品大体上都是用进口原材料制成或是用进口零部件组装而成，人民币升值实际上反而会起到降低出口商生产成本的作用。一些经济学家声称，出口商会将他们由此降低的成本全部或大部分回馈给客户， 从而抵消人民币升值对中国出口商品海外最终售价的推升作用。
尽管人民币汇率此前已有小幅升值，但中国的贸易顺差仍然屡创历史新高。自中国2005年7月取消人民币兑美元实际上的联系汇率制以来，人民币兑美元汇率已升值了近4%。
在中国政府看来，是一系列更广泛意义上的经济失衡导致了中国的贸易顺差，不能将关注点仅放在人民币汇率上。
中国央行在周三发表的货币政策季度报告中说，作为一系列政策手段中的一种，外汇政策在调整国际收支不平衡方面能够起到一定作用。但央行同时强调，解决贸易顺差过大问题的最根本途径依然是扩大国内需求，特别是国内消费，并降低储蓄率。
变化不会在一夜之间发生。中国政府一段时间以来一再表示，他们想要促进国内消费并增加进口。但政府在改善社会保障网络和提高教育等公共服务的水平方面迄今为止一直未能取得多大进展，而多数观察人士认为，这方面的进展将会促使中国家庭多花钱、少储蓄。
从近期的经济趋势看，中国的贸易顺差甚至有可能进一步增大。例如，中国政府已采取了一系列措施来减缓银行贷款的增长并遏制在基础设施和新建工厂方面的投资。如果这些措施能像一些经济学家预料的那样取得成功，资本设备和原材料的进口就有可能下降，从而进一步增加贸易顺差。
此外，许多分析师预计，既然美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)已暂停加息，美元汇率将开始下跌。因为人民币汇率与美元的关联度要大于与其他货币的关联度，因此美元汇率下跌有可能带动人民币兑欧元和日圆的汇率下降。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)的经济学家们在周四的一份报告中说：“这将导致贸易顺差变得更大。”
Andrew Batson
