Listen to What the Markets Are Saying
The markets are talking.
Investors scour the stock and bond markets for clues, hoping to figure out which investments will sparkle in the months ahead. This, of course, is a fool's game, and those who play often incur steep trading costs and garner mediocre returns.
But that doesn't mean you should ignore what the markets are saying. Sure, you may not score market-beating gains. But you can learn a whole lot about risk.
Risky Business
To earn high returns in the financial markets, you have to take a hefty amount of risk. But what is risk?
Academics and investment advisers often look at volatility, as captured by statistical measures such as standard deviation and beta. Standard deviation tells you how much an investment's return has strayed from its average return, while beta indicates how much an investment fluctuates compared to a benchmark index.
Want to know how risky your mutual funds are?
At
www.morningstar.com, you can look up both the beta and the standard deviation.
But some folks are scornful of such statistical measures, arguing that they aren't worried about upside volatility, because this means an investment is making money. Instead, all they care about are losses.
These investors, I fear, are making a big mistake. The reality is, if a stock or mutual fund notches explosive gains, that's a sign it could also suffer devastating losses.
Take technology stocks. Their startling rise in the late 1990s entranced many investors and, if anything, it made tech stocks seem like a safe bet. But in fact, those huge gains were a warning sign. Sure enough, by late 2002, the huge gains had turned to horrifying losses.
More recently, investors have enjoyed impressive profits with energy stocks, real-estate investment trusts, gold shares, emerging markets and commodities. That doesn't mean these investments will all come crashing down. But the big gains suggest that big losses are certainly a possibility.
Comparing Yields
You can also use volatility to judge the risk of a bond or bond fund. But with bonds, there's an even easier way to assess risk. Just look at the yield.
As a starting point, find out what the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is paying. Treasurys are considered one of the lowest-risk investments you can make, because there is no chance of default. Today, buying 10-year Treasurys will earn you some 5% a year for the next 10 years.
Got a fixed-income investment that intrigues you? The higher the yield above 5%, the greater the risk involved.
Indeed, I occasionally get emails from readers asking about the mouth-watering yields offered by leveraged closed-end income funds, high-yield preferred stock and unsecured subordinated business debt. Invariably, I know little or nothing about the investment in question. But I know it's risky. After all, you can't earn 9% or 10% yields without taking a heap of risk -- and maybe that risk won't get rewarded.
Default Option
While the 10-year Treasury note is a great starting point when analyzing yields, I consider the true no-risk investment to be inflation-indexed Treasury notes. With both investments, there is no risk of default. But with inflation-indexed Treasurys, there's also no inflation risk.
If you buy the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury note today and hold it to maturity, you are guaranteed to earn some 2.3 percentage points a year more than inflation over the next decade.
Moreover, these bonds come with an added bonus. Because inflation-indexed Treasurys can be bought cheaply through a no-load fund, a discount broker or even directly from the government through
www.treasurydirect.gov, you don't face the steep costs that can drag down the performance of many other investments.
My advice: Whenever you go to invest, consider the choice that the market is offering you. You can earn a guaranteed after-inflation return with inflation-indexed Treasurys -- or you can roll the dice and buy something that's potentially more rewarding, but also more risky and more costly.
Sometimes, it is a cinch to find investments that are more attractive than inflation bonds. But today it isn't nearly so easy, thanks to both the rise in the yield offered by inflation-indexed Treasurys in the past year or so and the long boom in the financial markets.
Reading History
That brings me to the stock market's gains since late 2002 -- and the performance of both the stock and bond markets since the early 1980s. It is, I believe, important to have some sense of history.
Many investors, of course, do have a sense of history -- and it hasn't served them well. They hop on sizzling investments, and end up getting burned. They invest with a star stock-fund manager, only to find that the manager's star quickly dims.
Their mistake: They assume hot investments and hot funds will stay hot. But, in fact, such dazzling gains ought to make them leery.
And over the past quarter century, the financial markets have been mostly dazzling. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has plummeted from almost 16% in 1981 to 5% today. The price/earnings multiple on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has climbed from eight times reported earnings in mid-1982 to 17 times today.
True, stocks got bludgeoned during the 2000-2002 bear market. But we have had almost four years of gains since then, and shares don't look cheap.
This doesn't mean that we are in for another bear market or that we are headed back to stocks at eight times earnings and Treasury notes at almost 16%. Indeed, there are some excellent reasons stocks and bonds are more richly valued today than they were in the early 1980s.
Still, yields can't again drop from 16% to 5% and price/earnings multiples can't again climb from 8 to 17.
The markets are talking and the message is pretty clear: Returns may be decent enough in the years ahead, but the markets won't dazzle the way they did over the past quarter century -- and there's a risk performance could be truly disappointing.
Jonathan Clements
倾听市场的声音
市场总是在传达某些讯息。
投资者仔细搜寻著股票和债券市场的蛛丝马迹，希望找到能在未来几个月一路飙升的投资品种。这当然是蠢材的游戏，那些在市场上频繁买卖的投资者常常要背负高昂的交易成本，得到的回报却只是平平而已。
双语阅读
? Listen to What the Markets Are Saying不过，这并不意味著你可以全然不管市场的声音。诚然，你也许没能获得超过市场平均水平的收益。但是你会对风险有更为全面的认识。
投资有风险
要想在金融市场上赚取高回报，你必须同时承担高风险。但何为风险呢？
学者和投资顾问通常以波动性来衡量风险，而波动性则由标准差和贝塔系数等统计指标得出。标准差指的是某项投资的回报率与其平均回报率比较的差异，而贝塔系数显示的则是某项投资相对基准指数的波动状况。
想知道你的共同基金有多大的风险吗？
在
www.morningstar.com，你可以查到贝塔系数和标准差的情况。
不过，有些人对此类统计指标不屑一顾，他们辩称自己根本不担心涨幅，因为它意味著这笔投资有利可图。相反，他们在乎的只是下跌。
我担心，这些投资者恐怕是大错特错了。实际上，如果某只股票或共同基金收益暴涨，这表明它也有可能遭受巨幅下跌。
就拿科技股来说吧。20世纪90年代末科技股的飙升曾令许多投资者感到飘飘然，一时之间，科技股似乎是稳赚不赔。但事实上，如此狂热的涨势也是一个危险的信号。果然，到了2002年末，一路高歌猛进的大涨变成了一泻千里的大跌。
最近，投资者在能源类股、房地产投资信托、黄金类股、新兴市场和商品交易中可谓斩获颇丰。这并不是说所有这些投资都会崩盘。但是，既然有大涨，当然有大跌的可能。
比较收益率
你也可以利用波动性来判断债券或债券基金的风险状况。但是对于债券，有一种更简单的风险评估方式：只要看看收益率就行了。
首先，找出基准10年期美国国债的收益率。美国国债被认为是风险最小的投资工具之一，因为美国国债没有拖欠的可能。目前，10年期美国国债的收益率在5%左右。
发现了一个相当诱人的固定收益投资工具？记住，收益率比5%越高，风险也就越大。
确实，我有时会收到读者的来信，他们对杠杆型封闭式基金、高收益优先股和无抵押后偿债券的高收益率艳羡不已。其实，我对他们问及的这些投资工具所知甚少。但我知道这些投资风险巨大。毕竟，你不可能轻而易举、不冒大风大浪地赚取9%或10%的收益。而且，或许你承担的风险根本不会带来回报。
选择投资工具
尽管10年期美国国债是分析收益率的良好起点，但我认为真正无风险的投资工具是通货膨胀指数国债。这两种投资工具都没有违约风险。但是通胀指数国债还消除了通货膨胀的风险。
如果你今天购买了10年期通胀指数国债，并持有至到期日，那么你在未来10年内每年能稳赚到比通货膨胀率高出2.3个百分点左右的收益。
此外，这些债券还有另一个好处。由于通胀指数国债可以直接通过无佣金基金、折扣经纪、甚至是通过
www.treasurydirect.gov从政府购进，因此你可以省去可能拖累其它许多投资工具收益表现的高额交易成本。
我的建议是：无论你在什么时候投资，都要考虑市场为你提供的所有选择。你可以购买通胀指数国债，获得剔除通货膨胀影响的稳定回报，你也可以碰碰运气，购买一些回报可能更高，但风险和成本也更大的投资品种。
在有些时候，很容易找到一些比通货膨胀债券更具吸引力的投资工具。但在今天，这已经没那么容易了，原因在于通胀指数国债收益率过去一年来的攀升，以及金融市场的长期繁荣。
解读历史
说到这里，我想起了股市自2002年末的涨势，以及股市和债市自80年代初以来的表现。我认为，具备一点历史感很重要。
当然，许多投资者确实有历史感，但这并没有让他们从中获益。他们追捧炙手可热的投资，结果却伤痕累累。他们看上了明星基金经理的股票基金，却发现明星基金很快就失去了光彩。
他们的错误在于：他们以为热门的投资和热门的基金会一直热下去。但实际上，如此耀眼的涨势本应令他们警觉才是。
过去25年来，金融市场在大多数时间里的表现都耀眼夺目。10年期美国国债的收益率从1981年的16%直线下跌到了今天的5%。标准普尔500指数的本益比也从1982年年中的8倍大幅上升到了今天的17倍。
诚然，在2000年至2002年的熊市期间，股市也遭受过重挫。但自那以后，我们差不多经历了4年的牛市，现在股价看来一点儿也不低。
这并不是说我们即将迎来另一个熊市，也不是说我们就要回到本益比8倍、收益率16%的年代了。今天的股票价格和债券收益率较80年代初估价更高，确有其合理之处。
尽管如此，收益率不可能再次从16%跌至5% ，本益比也不可能再次从8倍升至17倍。
市场传达的讯息相当明确：未来几年内，收益可能相当可观，但不会像过去25年来那么眩目，而且市场表现还有可能非常令人失望。
Jonathan Clements
