日本必须解决靖国神社问题
Koizumi's successor must settle the war shrine row
In his final weeks as Japan's prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi finally fulfilled a political promise made more than five years ago to pay his respects to the war dead at the controversial Yasukuni shrine on August 15, the anniversary of the end of the second world war. Although much of Asia is appalled by Mr Koizumi's audacity a month before his retirement, attention now turns to what his successor - who will be selected in September - will do.
Mr Koizumi's persistent visits to this memorial, which honours Japanese war criminals and ignores Japan's past aggression in Asia, have jeopardised Japan's leadership aspirations in the region and east Asian support for Japan's quest to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. By inflaming anti-Japanese nationalism in China and South Korea, the Yasukuni issue has made it difficult to manage contentious territorial disputes, competition over maritime economic interests and mistrust about long-term strategic intentions.
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This year, Beijing and Seoul have toned down their criticisms regarding the prime minister's visit to Yasukuni to encourage restraint by Mr Koizumi's successor. But if Japan's next leader rebuffs these expectations and continues with regular visits to the shrine, then the Chinese and Korean backlash fuelled by populist nationalism could be fierce. In this context, Japan's new assertiveness, especially in the security realm, could become a destabilising factor in east Asia and alarm even the US.
The recent revelation that Emperor Hirohito ceased his pilgrimages to Yasukuni after 1975 because of his disapproval of the enshrinement of Class A war criminals, however, provides a possible way out. After Emperor Hirohito's views became known, public opposition to shrine pilgrimages by following prime ministers increased and the option of "de-enshrining" the war criminals has garnered more support.
Shinzo Abe, who is almost certain to succeed Mr Koizumi, has so far refused to clarify his current stance on Yasukuni. But it was recently revealed that Mr Abe had quietly visited the shrine in April after assuming thepost of chief cabinet secretary. Openly questioning the judgments of the Tokyo war crimes trials, Mr Abe harbours a more conservative view of Japan's war history than Mr Koizumi.
If Mr Abe does become prime minister, he can use the political force of his nationalist credentials to resolve the Yasukuni issue in a lasting manner. He can do this by ending prime ministers' pilgrimages to the shrine until it is thoroughly reformed.
First, the war museum located on the shrine grounds would be fundamentally altered: instead of portraying Japan as the victim of western encirclement and as Asia's would-be liberators, a new exhibit would provide a more accurate and balanced view of war history.
Second, given the persistent Japanese misgivings about the justice of the Tokyo war crimes trials, Japan would engage in its own self-reflection about war responsibility and wartime behaviour. After such a process, Japan would reach a national consensus about how to deal with the enshrinement of war criminals at Yasukuni, including their possible de-enshrinement.
Finally, Japan would cultivate the seed of reform within Yasukuni. The Yasukuni compound contains a small shrine called Chinreisha (Spirit Pacification shrine) that was established in 1965. Although its origin is shrouded in mystery, part of it is dedicated to war dead regardless of nationality, including those from adversary countries. It symbolises Yasukuni's potential to become a more pacifying and cosmopolitan memorial - one that both the Japanese emperor and prime minister could visit and pay respects to the war dead without provoking controversy.
By pushing for reforming Yasukuni, Mr Abe as prime minister could revive Japan's international image and restore its influence in Asia. But if he continued Mr Koizumi's practice of pilgrimages without reform, then Japan's relations with neighbouring countries would deteriorate further, undermining efforts to foster an east Asian community and increasing tensions in the region.
These negative international consequences would then feed back into Japan's domestic politics. The opposition Democratic party, led by Ichiro Ozawa, would try to use the Yasukuni issue to defeat the ruling Liberal Democratic party in the summer 2007 election of the upper house of the Diet. Mr Abe now faces the critical choice between becoming one of Japan's acclaimed statesmen and becoming a fleeting prime minister, taking Japan further down the road of regional diplomatic isolation.
The writer holds the Japan-US relations chair at George Washington University
日本必须解决靖国神社问题
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本首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)在任期的最后几周,终于兑现了5年前许下的政治承诺,即在8月15日的二战结束纪念日,前往有争议的靖国神社参拜战争死难者。尽管小泉纯一郎在离任前一个月的大胆行为令亚洲多数国家和地区震惊,但人们的注意力现在转向了将于9月份选出的他的继任者将如何行事。
靖国神社避而不谈日本侵略亚洲的历史,供奉着日本战犯。小泉纯一郎执意参拜靖国神社,已影响到日本成为亚太地区领袖的雄心,以及东亚国家对日本申请成为联合国安理会常任理事国的支持。靖国神社问题在中韩两国激起的反日民族主义情绪,已使得日本难于处理领土争端、海洋经济利益竞争及对长期战略意图不信任等问题。
今年,北京和首尔对日本首相参拜靖国神社的批评之声已有所缓和,以期鼓励小泉纯一郎的继任者在这一问题上保持克制。但是,如果日本下一任领导人置这种期望于不顾,继续定期参拜靖国神社,那么,在民粹主义精神的激励下,中韩两国可能会展开猛烈的反击。在这种情况下,日本新生的自信,特别是在安全领域,可能成为东亚地区的不稳定因素,甚至会令美国担忧。
然而,最近披露的消息表明,由于不赞成供奉甲级战犯,裕仁天皇(Emperor Hirohito)在1975年后停止了参拜靖国神社,这为日本提供了一种可能的解决之道。自裕仁天皇的观点披露以来,公众对后任首相参拜靖国神社的反对之声高涨,“不供奉”战犯的选择获得了更多支持。
几乎肯定会接替小泉纯一郎的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe),迄今始终拒绝表明自己目前在靖国神社问题上的立场。但最近有媒体披露称,安倍晋三在担任官房长官一职后,曾于今年4月秘密参拜靖国神社。安倍晋三曾公开质疑远东国际军事法庭的审判结果,他对日本战争历史的看法比小泉纯一郎更为保守。
如果安倍晋三出任首相,他可以利用自己的民粹主义政治资本,从长远意义上解决靖国神社问题。要做到这一点,他可以先停止首相对靖国神社的参拜,直到靖国神社得到彻底改造。
首先,要从根本上改变神社内的战争博物馆:新的展览不再将日本描述为西方包围下的受害者,或是本想成为亚洲的解放者,而是以更准确、更平衡的观点看待战争历史。
其次,鉴于日本始终对远东国际军事法庭的审判结果的公正性表示怀疑,日本要对战争责任及战时行为进行自我反省。经过这样一个过程,在如何处理在靖国神社供奉战犯(包括摘下他们的灵位)的问题上,日本将可达成全民共识。
最后,日本要在靖国神社内培育改革的种子。在靖国神社建筑群中,有一个建于1965年的小神社,名为镇灵社(Chinreisha)。尽管其来历被神秘地隐盖了起来,但它的部分作用是祭祀世界各地的战争死难者,无论国籍如何,包括敌对国家。这象征着靖国神社有可能变成一个更具安抚作用、更有世界性的纪念馆――日本天皇和首相都可以到这里来参拜战争死难者,而不会激起争端。
通过推动靖国神社的改革,作为首相的安倍晋三可以重振日本的国际形象,恢复日本对亚洲的影响力。但是,如果他不加改革就继续小泉纯一郎的参拜行为,那么日本与邻国的关系将进一步恶化,从而削弱为培育东亚共同体而付出的努力,加剧亚太地区的紧张局势。
这些负面的国际后果,将反作用于日本的国内政治。由小泽一郎(Ichiro Ozawa)领导的反对党自由党(Democratic party)将会试图利用靖国神社问题,在2007年夏季日本国会参议院选举中击败执政的自民党(Liberal Democratic party)。安倍晋三现在面临着关键抉择,是要成为一位受到人们交口称赞的日本政治家,还是要成为一位光彩一闪即逝的首相,让日本在地区外交孤立的道路上愈行愈远。
本文作者是乔治?华盛顿大学(George Washington University)美日关系项目主席